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The Continuing Decline & Fall of Mark Buehrle


C.Rector

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Following is the the three year decline of starter Mark Buehrle as evidenced by his stats from 2001, 2002 and 2003 (in order):

 

ERA: 3.29, 3.58, 4.14

K/BB: 2.63, 2.20, 1.95

K/9IP: 5.12, 5.05, 4.65

BAA: .230, .260, .278

 

Buehrle’s decline is an indication that his arm is getting progressively tired. One would think that the Sox would opt to limit Buehrle to no more than 5 innings per start or to a strict pitch limit in the 75-100 range or perhaps even place him in the bullpen in order to at least lengthen out his quality service for the team. This is especially the case since Buehrle recently signed a 3-yr. $18 Mil. in guraranteed money contract with the Sox. However, the Sox have not evinced any awareness of Buehrle’s decline and appear to have their problematic pitcher on course towards lengthened stays on the mound.

 

Up until last night's disaster at Comiskey Park vs. the Yankees, Buehrle was throwing an average 112 pitches per game. Folks, this is Dusty Baker territory. Unless Guillen institutes a strict pitch count on Buehrle, his decline will only continue to worsen.

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Following is the the three year decline of starter Mark Buehrle as evidenced by his stats from 2001, 2002 and 2003 (in order):

 

ERA: 3.29, 3.58, 4.14

K/BB: 2.63, 2.20, 1.95

K/9IP: 5.12, 5.05, 4.65

BAA: .230, .260, .278

 

Buehrle’s decline is an indication that his arm is getting progressively tired. One would think that the Sox would opt to limit Buehrle to no more than 5 innings per start or to a strict pitch limit in the 75-100 range or perhaps even place him in the bullpen in order to at least lengthen out his quality service for the team. This is especially the case since Buehrle recently signed a 3-yr. $18 Mil. in guraranteed money contract with the Sox. However, the Sox have not evinced any awareness of Buehrle’s decline and appear to have their problematic pitcher on course towards lengthened stays on the mound.

 

Up until last night's disaster at Comiskey Park vs. the Yankees, Buehrle was throwing an average 112 pitches per game.  Folks, this is Dusty Baker territory.  Unless Guillen institutes a strict pitch count on Buehrle, his decline will only continue to worsen.

Your pitch count stats are wrong --

 

He pitched 93 in his first outing, 115 in his second -- that would mean he would have pitched 128 pitches in his 3rd start -- Which he didn't -- Don't make up stats

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I will acknowledge the decline in MB's stats -- Though I feel he is still an effective pitcher -- Just not an ACE

 

MB's problems are between the ears -- as evidenced by tonights start...

 

7 runs scored with only one ball being hit with any authority. He didn't run out that play to open the game.. His mind was not there tonight.. It was in the same place last May, when he had an ERA over 7 -- It wasn't there in that game in Detroit after Cotts was started in Yankee stadium the day before -- He got touched up that game allowing 14 baserunners in 5 innings --

 

The margin between being a dominant pitcher, or just another scrub, is razor thin. Mark's stuff has not deteriorated -- his approach has -- He has to learn(or relearn) how to forget, and pitch over his mistakes or those of his defense.

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Your pitch count stats are wrong --

 

He pitched 93 in his first outing, 115 in his second -- that would mean he would have pitched 128 pitches in his 3rd start -- Which he didn't -- Don't make up stats

I didn't make up the stats, just got my math a bit wrong, that's all.

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I didn't make up the stats, just got my math a  bit wrong, that's all.

actually mine aren't accurate --- I have since looked them up -- He went 95,117,110 -- 107 avg.

 

Though over the past three seasons he has averaged --

 

103, 103, and about 100 pitches per game ---

 

Add todays game and he is under that pace -- Plus the fact that he has gone 220in. for 3 straight years, I think he shown his durability -- he's not a power pitcher -- You worry about pitch count for younger guys, and thouse who haven't pitched huge numbers of innings..

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I didn't make up the stats, just got my math a  bit wrong, that's all.

And your analysis. That is a TWO year decline, not a three year. You have to have a base year to decline from. If you want to show a 3 year decline you need to show the 4th year to show what the 3rd year declined from.

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i'm worried about buehrle, but i prefer not to think of him as definitely being in decline. with three years' worth of numbers to look at, it's tempting to just look at them and say, he's gotten worse each year so he must be declining. i think it's just as possible that his first season's numbers were inflated (for a variety of reasons), his second season is more of what we can expect to be a typical performance level, and his third was just a down year. the fact that he pitched well later on last year gives me hope that this is valid. either way, i won't really feel like i know for sure what we have in buehrle until this year's done.

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I didn't make up the stats, just got my math a  bit wrong, that's all.

In fairness, after Buerhle has a very good start, I hope you stand up and start a thread about him.

 

Not only here, but on other boards too.

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Buehrle’s decline is an indication that his arm is getting progressively tired. One would think that the Sox would opt to limit Buehrle to no more than 5 innings per start or to a strict pitch limit in the 75-100 range or perhaps even place him in the bullpen in order to at least lengthen out his quality service for the team.

 

I am concerned about the trend with Mark's numbers that has developed. I stated so in the off season. I do still think he can be a solid starter and reverse the trend. But I also think he is not a true ace.

 

I disagree however that his arm getting progressively tired is the problem. And I definitely disagree that severe limitations as suggested are the answer. The arm has plenty of time to recover in the off season. I do agree that his pitch count should be watched closely and that they should not be afraid to utilize the bullpen if we have a comfortable lead with Mark on the mound, regardless of how well he is throwing.

 

In my mind, the trend in Mark's stats are due more to the fact the league now knows him better and there is not a lot of margin for error for a pitcher of his type. I hope he can find a way to reverse the trend and be the ace we need, proving me and others wrong.

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Of course Mark is not an ace, it's been mentioned many times throughout 2003. Hitters don't chase his slider like they used to in 2001 and his curveball, the one he used so well to K people that year, is now too erratic -- afterall that roller to Vernon Wells last year, Mark's no longer relying on it.

 

Mark is a 3.50-3.70 ERA pitcher on a good defensive team. That's not an ace and not even a very good #2. That's why Sox need a stud #1 if we're to go deep in the playsoffs as Loaiza, Burhle and Garland are much better at 2-3-4.

 

That said, he wasn't terrible in the 1st inning. With some luck and hustle, he could have gotten out of it without any runs. Yankees still would have touched him up for 3-4 runs eventually, but the game would have been won.

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Following is the the three year decline of starter Mark Buehrle as evidenced by his stats from 2001, 2002 and 2003 (in order):

 

ERA: 3.29, 3.58, 4.14

K/BB: 2.63, 2.20, 1.95

K/9IP: 5.12, 5.05, 4.65

BAA: .230, .260, .278

 

Buehrle’s decline is an indication that his arm is getting progressively tired. One would think that the Sox would opt to limit Buehrle to no more than 5 innings per start or to a strict pitch limit in the 75-100 range or perhaps even place him in the bullpen in order to at least lengthen out his quality service for the team. This is especially the case since Buehrle recently signed a 3-yr. $18 Mil. in guraranteed money contract with the Sox. However, the Sox have not evinced any awareness of Buehrle’s decline and appear to have their problematic pitcher on course towards lengthened stays on the mound.

 

Up until last night's disaster at Comiskey Park vs. the Yankees, Buehrle was throwing an average 112 pitches per game.  Folks, this is Dusty Baker territory.  Unless Guillen institutes a strict pitch count on Buehrle, his decline will only continue to worsen.

AHHHH Yet another in a long list of "chicken little" posts on the Soxtalk boards.

 

THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!!!

 

THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!!!

 

 

 

Wow, I never thought one bad start is the end of a career for any pitcher but I guess you know best.

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I only get to watch Buerhle pitch when a game is on the telly and not Chitown cable either mind you. The games I have seen Mark pitch in he looks good. When he misses it doesn't appear by much and I truly believe he gets squeezed. Rivera gets strikes called on the same pitches Mark gets called a ball. Now that can mean he is getting squeezed by the umps or that he is missing by an inch more or less. I think control pitchers like Mark tend to get messed with by the umps. It sucks that Buerhle gave up 8 runs, but I don't think it's the end of the world. I seem to remember that that there Pedro Martinez, who get a lot of calls his way too, got bombed recently. Maybe it's the dead arm after Spring Training, and then again it might be just a bunch of seeing eye hits and a lack of sharpness from Mark in a game. I am always more worried about someone being hurt when that happens, but that doesn't seem to be the case. I am betting that Mark Buerhle's next start will be just fine. I know one thing I really enjoy watching Mark Buerhle, Esteban Loaiza and Jon Garland pitch when they are on their game. They are beautiful. :wub: And I don't mean that in that kind of way. :nono

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Mark is a 3.50-3.70 ERA pitcher on a good defensive team.

I think that's the first time I heard the sox called a good defensive team...

 

Buerhle has gotten screwed more than any pitcher on this club over the past few years....and he takes it like a man and moves on to his next start. I think Mark will be fine...

 

:headbang

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Where was this thread after he shut down the Yankees in the stadium last week and after he threw a good game on opening day but got screwed out of the win by Botch and Marte?

The same place these type of threads go when the Sox are winning. Almost no one has the guts to step up and say someone or this team sucks when they are doing well. I can think of about one guy off of the top of my head who will. The rest of these guys just show up when things go bad to advance their agendas. I put no credence in these type of posters.

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