Jump to content

The Continuing Decline & Fall of Mark Buehrle


C.Rector

Recommended Posts

The same place these type of threads go when the Sox are winning.  Almost no one has the guts to step up and say someone or this team sucks when they are doing well.  I can think of about one guy off of the top of my head who will.  The rest of these guys just show up when things go bad to advance their agendas.  I put no credence in these type of posters.

Amen....

 

Mark Buehrle :headbang :headbang :headbang

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 288
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Buehrle has had a shaky start to say the least over the past couple of years. But, looking back to last year, he really turned it up later on in the season, and he will do the same thing THIS season. I will wait to panic unless it's August and he only has 3-5 wins...Not gonna happen. Let's not hyperventalate over one bad start.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Buehrle has had a shaky start to say the least over the past couple of years.  But, looking back to last year, he really turned it up later on in the season, and he will do the same thing THIS season.  I will wait to panic unless it's August and he only has 3-5 wins...Not gonna happen.  Let's not hyperventalate over one bad start.

Thank you Heather my love... :wub:

 

:D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm still convinced that Carlos would win in a cage match against Buehrle... ;)

I sat by his wife at a Spring Training game out in Tucson, so now I know that you are unrightfully claiming the title of Mrs. Lee!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One should take into account that what happened in that first inning yesterday will probably not happen to us ever again this year (fingers and toes crossed)

 

It was a rare occurrence - errors, people late to the plate to cover, people dropping balls etc

 

Move on...it happens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think that's the first time I heard the sox called a good defensive team...

 

That's the point....they're not.

 

Hence his struggles in 03 and 04. He doesn't get bailed out like, say, Brad Radke was back in 02 or Jaimme Moyer was in 01 or Colon was in 99.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm going to step up and say Buehrle betters last season numbers and bucks the trend this year. His breaking pitches have looked a lot better this year and he seems to be a lot fresher.

 

His command has been better, up until yesterday and I think as the season progresses and the umps strike zones widen up, he will really get in a groove.

 

Count me down as saying Buehrle will have an ERA below 3.20 and he will win 19-21 games.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Count me down as saying Buehrle will have an ERA below 3.20 and he will win 19-21 games

 

Holy crap!

 

Bucking the trend is one thing (as my post indicates, I too don't think Mark is as ordinary as he was last year).......But 3.00 ERA? That's CY Young territory in AL.

 

Without a good curveball, no way. But if you're right, then all the better for the Sox.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm going to step up and say Buehrle betters last season numbers and bucks the trend this year.  His breaking pitches have looked a lot better this year and he seems to be a lot fresher.

 

His command has been better, up until yesterday and I think as the season progresses and the umps strike zones widen up, he will really get in a groove.

 

Count me down as saying Buehrle will have an ERA below 3.20 and he will win 19-21 games.

Take it easy on the black and silver Kool Aid there buddy.... somebody might get hurt with you going wild like that. What's next, are you going to run with scissors?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ok because I'm a big fan of getting players for value and I read a lot of Rob Neyer, I think that the Sox could have done a lot worse than buerhle for the money they have invested in him. If I am correct, Mark's getting paid 3yr/18mil. By comparison Andy Pettitte is getting 10.5mil per year. I think everyone can agree that neither of these guys are the typical "ace." But let's look at some statistics (I'm not going to include this year because the sample size is not large enough yet):

 

Buerhle (2001-2003) Age:25

Stat Categories: Year, IP, R, ER, HR, BB, SO, W, L, ERA, AVGagainst respectively

(sorry I don't know how to make this look pretty at all but hopefully you'll all get the drift)

 

2001 221.1 188 89 81 24 48 126 16 8 3.29 .230

2002 239.0 236 102 95 25 61 134 19 12 3.58 .260

2003 230.1 250 124 106 22 61 119 14 14 4.14 .278

 

Pettitte (2001-2003) Age:31

(same categories as above)

2001 200.2 224 103 89 14 41 164 15 10 3.99 .281

2002 134.2 144 58 49 6 32 97 13 5 3.28 .272

2003 208.1 227 109 93 21 50 180 21 8 4.02 .272

 

These guys are about as close as you can get in a comparison. Has Andy Pettitte had better postseason success? Sure. BUT, Mark hasn't had the same opportunites as Pettitte. Does this justify the extra 4.5mil? Heck no. Mark is also 25, about to reach his "prime." Is there concern that his arm may be tired? Of course, that is a common concern with all "horse" pitchers (high innings guys). However, a pitcher that has a quality record of good control, no serious injuries, and consistent production (even though it is in slight decline) makes me feel like the sox have gotten a great deal with MB.

 

I know this may not be what everyone is discussing, but I'm just trying to put this into perspective. It's 3 starts into the season for MB, two good outings and one questionable outing against arguably the best team in baseball (in which the defense could have helped him). I think it's a bit too early to cry wolf, because MB will get his consistent numbers IMO. He's proven that he knows how to pitch, he just needs some good d behind him and a decent shrink to fix his head :P

 

MB is probably one of the safest bets in baseball because of his history and the fact that he's not eating up a majority of the sox's payroll. In comparison these players are getting paid as much, if not more than MB:

 

Aaron Sele (8.45mil per), Brad Radke (10.75mil), Joe "Sox Killer" Mays (I had to put this even though he's slightly under at 5.75mil), Jamie Moyer (7mil), Freddy Garcia (6.875mil), Chan Ho Park (13+mil), Mike Hampton (12+mil), Paul Byrd (7mil), Matt Clement (6mil), Denny Neagle (9mil), Darren Driefort (11.4mil), Jeff Weaver (6.25mil), Tom Glavine (10+mil), Al Leiter (10+mil), Eric Milton (9mil), Kris Benson (6.15mil)

 

There are few I've missed probably, but just looking at that list makes me feel as though Buerhle is better than most of those pitchers. Granted there are better pitchers getting paid less and better getting paid more, but the point here is at the end of the day we will all be happy with the amount of production we get out of Buerhle for what he's getting paid. He's no Billy Koch :ph34r:

 

Like I said this may be a bit off on a tangent, but it makes me feel a hell of a lot safer if Buerhle struggles a bit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fotop,

 

Good post -- I love posts that present statistical information to back up thier position..

 

We had a thread devoted essentially to what you are getting at in your post back when Buehrle signed his deal -- Comparing MB to Pettitte is a very logical choice -- I made the same comparison back in that thread

 

Comparing his value to all those guys is a little misleading, however. In baseball you don't get PAID until you experience free agency -- I know players are winning under 15% of thier arbitration cases -- Hell Gagne lost his (how the hell does that happen) --

 

Rigth now MB is a good value -- Towards the end of his contract, if he continues his trend, he will not be.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks for the compliments Cheat, I'm glad you enjoyed the post.

 

I would have to disagree with you though about MB not being worth the 6mil at the end of his contract. Maybe it's just because I place a TON (maybe too much) importance on age but Buerhle's only 25. For someone to have that much success before his middle 20's is a sign of a good pitcher to me.

 

Sure, teams may have figured some of his stuff out to a certain extent, but this is a sport of adjustment and I have full confidence that Buerhle can adjust because he doesn't just get up there and throw, he pitches (cliche, I know). Guys that just throw get figured out and there's a spike in there stats because they lack that "magic bullet" pitch that once got them their outs.

 

I think the prime example of this is F-Rod (Angels), who people are starting to recognize his slider and lay off of it because it breaks so hard that he can't throw it for strikes. Granted I think the kid is a great pitcher and will be down the road because the problem isn't all that magnified in the bullpen; people only see the pitch for an inning or two. But if he were a starter people probably would be wondering where all of his playoff magic went because his slider wouldn't cut it past the first time through the order.

 

But anyways, back to Buerhle. He'll be 28 when he's in the last year of this contract. Unless the market gets even tighter when it comes to contracts (and as long as the Yankees exist, I doubt this happening), Buerhle's value should be near par at the tail end. Maybe it's just me but I can't say a guy who pitches 200 innings a year with a decent ERA (for the AL) won't be worth 6mil in two years. And even if he's not, I doubt we'd be stuck with him in his final year because some team would be willing to trade for him at the deadline because of his past "workhorse" numbers and the fact that he's left handed.

 

In conclusion, quality lefties in their mid 20's are worth their weight in gold IMO. I really liked the contract when it was signed, I doubt I'll have a hard time with it down the road.

 

Geez I'm a wordy guy. ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Buehrle has had a shaky start to say the least over the past couple of years.  But, looking back to last year, he really turned it up later on in the season, and he will do the same thing THIS season.  I will wait to panic unless it's August and he only has 3-5 wins...Not gonna happen.  Let's not hyperventalate over one bad start.

Actually, Heather aside from wins and losses, Mark's numbers last year were damn near the same in before and after the AS Break. There was a slight improvement in the 2nd half, but it really was negligible.

 

Below are his numbers before and after the AS Break... Granted he started improving just before the AS Game, but the numbers might surprise you. He had a really horrible month of May.

 

------------Pre-AS Break----Post-AS Break

ERA-------------4.24------------4.01

W-L-------------7-10------------7-4

IP---------------136------------94.1

H----------------145------------94.1

HR----------------15---------------7

BB----------------41--------------64

K------------------20--------------53

 

As you can see, his HR Allowed dropped significantly and his BB:K ration improved, but there wasn't a lot of difference in the other numbers.

 

 

I do think there is merit to this thread, although I disagree with the premise of MB being "tired" and needing to put on a strict pitch count. His numbers have declined and they have been in the categories considered most important for a pitcher. To see a decline in ERA, H:IP, BB:K, BB:IP and Oppenent's average is scary. If his numbers decline at a similar rate this year, everyone on this board will be yelling that he is overpaid and the Sox were stupid for giving him the contract they did.

 

I hope he stops the slide and right's himself, but we shouldn't ignore the numbers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ok because I'm a big fan of getting players for value and I read a lot of Rob Neyer, I think that the Sox could have done a lot worse than buerhle for the money they have invested in him. If I am correct, Mark's getting paid 3yr/18mil. By comparison Andy Pettitte is getting 10.5mil per year. I think everyone can agree that neither of these guys are the typical "ace." But let's look at some statistics (I'm not going to include this year because the sample size is not large enough yet):

 

Buerhle (2001-2003) Age:25

Stat Categories: Year, IP, R, ER, HR, BB, SO, W, L, ERA, AVGagainst respectively

(sorry I don't know how to make this look pretty at all but hopefully you'll all get the drift)

 

2001 221.1  188 89    81 24 48 126 16 8    3.29    .230

2002 239.0  236 102  95 25 61 134 19 12 3.58    .260

2003 230.1  250 124  106 22 61 119 14 14 4.14    .278

 

Pettitte (2001-2003) Age:31

(same categories as above)

2001 200.2  224 103  89 14  41 164 15    10 3.99    .281

2002 134.2  144 58    49    6 32    97 13  5    3.28    .272

2003 208.1  227 109  93 21  50 180 21  8    4.02    .272

 

These guys are about as close as you can get in a comparison. Has Andy Pettitte had better postseason success? Sure. BUT, Mark hasn't had the same opportunites as Pettitte. Does this justify the extra 4.5mil? Heck no. Mark is also 25, about to reach his "prime." Is there concern that his arm may be tired? Of course, that is a common concern with all "horse" pitchers (high innings guys). However, a pitcher that has a quality record of good control, no serious injuries, and consistent production (even though it is in slight decline) makes me feel like the sox have gotten a great deal with MB.

 

I know this may not be what everyone is discussing, but I'm just trying to put this into perspective. It's 3 starts into the season for MB, two good outings and one questionable outing against arguably the best team in baseball (in which the defense could have helped him). I think it's a bit too early to cry wolf, because MB will get his consistent numbers IMO. He's proven that he knows how to pitch, he just needs some good d behind him and a decent shrink to fix his head :P 

 

MB is probably one of the safest bets in baseball because of his history and the fact that he's not eating up a majority of the sox's payroll. In comparison these players are getting paid as much, if not more than MB:

 

Aaron Sele (8.45mil per), Brad Radke (10.75mil), Joe "Sox Killer" Mays (I had to put this even though he's slightly under at 5.75mil), Jamie Moyer (7mil), Freddy Garcia (6.875mil), Chan Ho Park (13+mil), Mike Hampton (12+mil), Paul Byrd (7mil), Matt Clement (6mil), Denny Neagle (9mil), Darren Driefort (11.4mil), Jeff Weaver (6.25mil), Tom Glavine (10+mil), Al Leiter (10+mil), Eric Milton (9mil), Kris Benson (6.15mil)

 

There are few I've missed probably, but just looking at that list makes me feel as though Buerhle is better than most of those pitchers. Granted there are better pitchers getting paid less and better getting paid more, but the point here is at the end of the day we will all be happy with the amount of production we get out of Buerhle for what he's getting paid. He's no Billy Koch :ph34r:

 

Like I said this may be a bit off on a tangent, but it makes me feel a hell of a lot safer if Buerhle struggles a bit.

welcome fotop and where do I know your name - sox mlb boards? You have given some brilliant analysis through the years. I know I have liked your work, I just wish I remembed where I read it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yea I've been around the sox boards on the sox homepage, but those boards are defintely not the place for me. Too much yelling and screaming, not enough depth. Plus it's troll city.

 

I've been around the team pretty much all my life, my family has had season tickets for about 9 seasons now, so I'm always looking for a place to discuss the white sox. I'm really glad I've found this site, the warm welcome from everyone is appreciated. Hopefully I'll be able to particpate is quality discussions with all of you while providing my own insight.

 

Now let's get a winner tonight against Vazquez. :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fotop...well said.

 

 

Folks(specifically, no mainly, no ONLY C.Rector)...it's a point you've brought up before. If you bring it up in June and MB is 4-6 4.60 or so, then your point will be considered. Until then, it will not, and it will be spit on and stepped on and you will have jabs thrown at you for bringing it up after Buehrle's FIRST and thus far ONLY bad outing all year, so get the f*** off the soap box.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yea I've been around the sox boards on the sox homepage, but those boards are defintely not the place for me. Too much yelling and screaming, not enough depth. Plus it's troll city.

 

I've been around the team pretty much all my life, my family has had season tickets for about 9 seasons now, so I'm always looking for a place to discuss the white sox. I'm really glad I've found this site, the warm welcome from everyone is appreciated. Hopefully I'll be able to particpate is quality discussions with all of you while providing my own insight.

 

Now let's get a winner tonight against Vazquez.  :D

Welcome to our wonderful home.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...