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2004 SOX Evaluation


JUGGERNAUT

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I'd like to separate all comments & challenges into a separate thread.

It's getting difficult to navigate the scoring thread & I've got over 100 games to do yet.

 

I likewise plan to use this thread to snap shot the monthly totals.

I plan to update the totals once a week depending on challenges and such.

 

Please include a link to the post you wish to challenge or comment on, or simply quote it from the other thread.

 

Thanks!

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Challenge #1:

 

APR 7 @ KC W4-3

 

PoG: Miguel Olivo

AoG: Billy Koch (10, day after huge save)

BoG: Miguel Olivo (RON HR, RON 1B)

GoG: Valentin

 

Ordonez had more total bases than Olivo; if Miguel is your PoG, then the least you can do for Magglio is to throw him a BoG bone. That way everybody wins.

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Challenge #2:

 

APR 14 v KC W10-9 : Ozzie nearly blew it. JG in 7th?

 

PoG: Joe Crede (Game winning double overrules stats)

AoG: Clif Politte

BoG: Miguel Olivo

GoG: Joe Crede (his D helped win this game too)

 

It was a double ONLY because the RF was playing very shallow -- otherwise it's caught.

 

Without Olivo, Crede wouldn't even have a chance to come to the plate with bases loaded and no outs in the 9th as the KC lead would be to big to overcome.

 

This is a clear case where a high-profile play by Crede overshadows Olivo who was all-around better.

 

There is no way it makes sense.

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Challenge #1:

APR 7 @ KC W4-3

 

Ordonez had more total bases than Olivo;  if Miguel is your PoG, then the least you can do for Magglio is to throw him a BoG bone.  That way everybody wins.

The BOG was tightly contested in this game because MOL accounted for most of the runs. But Magglio did produce in 4 ab's to MOL's 2, so I will give Maggs the nod here.

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Challenge #2:

 

 

 

It was a double ONLY because the RF was playing very shallow -- otherwise it's caught. 

 

Without Olivo, Crede wouldn't even have a chance to come to the plate with bases loaded and no outs in the 9th as the KC lead would be to big to overcome.

 

This is a clear case where a high-profile play by Crede overshadows Olivo who was all-around better.

 

There is no way it makes sense.

As productive as Miguel was do the SOX win the game without Joe making the run saving plays at 3rd as well as his game winning double?

 

I'm going to be changing this to a single because the official log changed it.

That's going to knock off 10 more points on Joe. But how many points did Joe save with his D?

 

I don't remember the specific plays he made but I do remember they were run savers with RISP.

 

I changed it to Miguel & gave Joe an hon mention. It won't show up in the totals,

but Joe deserves at least that. My decision was based on Olivo haven't a 38 margin over Joe for the BoG. That's better than Rowand's production & Rowand scored.

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As productive as Miguel was do the SOX win the game without Joe making the run saving plays at 3rd as well as his game winning double?

 

I'm going to be changing this to a single because the official log changed it.

That's going to knock off 10 more points on Joe.  But how many points did Joe save with his D?

 

I don't remember the specific plays he made but I do remember they were run savers with RISP.

 

I changed it to Miguel & gave Joe an hon mention.  It won't show up in the totals,

but Joe deserves at least that.  My decision was based on Olivo haven't a 38 margin over Joe for the BoG.  That's better than Rowand's production & Rowand scored.

Olivo had a single, a 2-out 3-run double, a SB, a sac bunt and reached on an error by pitcher (maybe his speed caused it, who knows). 2 LOB

 

Crede had a single, a walk, a fine defensive play (saved a run) and a game-winning single that would have been a deep FO if RF didn't have to play half way up to take away a sac fly. 3 LOB.

 

Jauggs, it's your decision. You did give Miguel Bat of the Game, so if you keep Crede as Player of Game, no problem.

 

Just want to make sure you didn't miss on the details as I remember them.

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Olivo had a single, a 2-out 3-run double, a SB, a sac bunt and reached on an error by pitcher (maybe his speed caused it, who knows).    2 LOB

 

Crede had a single, a walk, a fine defensive play (saved a run) and a game-winning single that would have been a deep FO if RF didn't have to play half way up to take away a sac fly.  3 LOB.

 

Jauggs, it's your decision.  You did give Miguel Bat of the Game, so if you keep Crede as Player of Game, no problem.

 

Just want to make sure you didn't miss on the details as I remember them.

When I found out it was changed to a single that was the difference maker.

What Miguel did with 2 outs was worth much more to the game then what Crede did with nobody out.

 

POG: Miguel Olivo

 

Joe will still get an honorable mention.

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What the first month of the season is showing:

1) Our pitching is slightly better than adequate. That's goes for starters thru bullpen.

2) Uribe is the steal of the year

3) Crede is the most productive 200 hitter in baseball

4) Koney has a hot bat

5) Maggs is a little above average

6) Thomas is Mr OBP

7) Lee is looking better in LF every day

8) The SOX might have the most productive reserves in the majors

 

That's why we're 12-8 after the first 20 games. 142 left.

 

The big question mark going into May: will the pitching improve?

I'm not nieve enough to believe that the SOX can pull off 5 come from behind victories a month.

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The main thread will be to hard to navigate for 162 games, so I'm going to break it into months. The current scoring thread will end after April & a new one will be created for May. I would like to finalize the April totals at that time so if there are any more challenges please make them known this week.

 

Thanks

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C3

 

APR 13 v KC : W12-5 HOME OPENER!

 

PoG: Paul Konerko

AoG: Brain Koch (just a walk)

BoG: Paul Konerko (1ON 1B, 2ON HR)

GoG: Olivo (pickoff 2B)

 

It's nice to see Botch's cousin finally getting recognized. :headbang

 

E-Lo gets spanked, KC is looking to feast on our weak pen. Mike Jackson comes in and throws 2 scoreless innnings, retiring Berroa, Beltran, Sweeney, Stairs and Santiago. Allows a 2-out hit, but no damage done.

 

Then comes in Koch. Walks a runner, another runner Ks but is safe on a wild pitch. No runs score, though.

 

Why are 2 scoreless innings that basically squashed any hope red-hot KC bats had of coming back any less important than 1 scoreless inning?

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C3

 

 

 

It's nice to see Botch's cousin finally getting recognized. :headbang

 

E-Lo gets spanked, KC is looking to feast on our weak pen.  Mike Jackson comes in and throws 2 scoreless innnings, retiring Berroa, Beltran, Sweeney, Stairs and Santiago.    Allows a 2-out hit, but no damage done.

 

Then comes in Koch. Walks a runner, another runner Ks but is safe on a wild pitch. No runs score, though.

 

Why are 2 scoreless innings that basically squashed any hope red-hot KC bats had of coming back any less important than 1 scoreless inning?

You're over-estimating Jackson's performance & under-estimating Koch's.

 

MJ took over with NON 12-5 lead following a HR given up by E-LO.

He struck KC's worst hitter (Berroa), then a 3-2 FO, followed by a GO.

Two balls in play in 3 outs.

In the 8th, he produced a PO, GO, & 3-2 double, followed by 0-1 Line out.

Again 3 balls in play & 2 TB.

 

Koch dominated the 9th. Technically 2 strike outs, & no hits.

The K-out vs Sweeney with 1 on was worth as much as MJ's entire 7th.

There wasn't a single hard hit ball vs Koch.

If not for his own stupidity & runner never would have reached.

 

It's certainly a close call (a 5pt difference) but let's not forget that wrt to KC this was Koch's 2nd 9th inning outing when he allowed no runs. I think that will mean more in the future then what MJ did.

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http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/alb04.htm

ALC RPG & NPERA :

 

A 1 Ford, Lew MIN R 12.45

A 2 Belliard, Ron CLE R 11.75

A 3 Beltran, Carlos KC B 11.29

A 5 Thomas, Frank CHW R 9.97

A 13 White, Rondell DET R 8.26

A 14 Hafner, Travis CLE L 8.11

A 15 Konerko, Paul CHW R 8.02

A 18 Jones, Jacque MIN L 7.61

A 22 Rodriguez, Ivan DET R 7.23

A 23 Sweeney, Mike KC R 7.06

A 24 Ordonez, Magglio CHW R 6.88

A 25 Blanco, Henry MIN R 6.88

A 26 Offerman, Jose MIN B 6.84

A 27 Randa, Joe KC R 6.83

A 30 Stewart, Shannon MIN R 6.55

A 33 Koskie, Corey MIN L 6.35

A 36 Lawton, Matt CLE L 6.05

A 39 Martinez, Victor CLE B 5.94

A 40 Mientkiewicz, Doug MIN L 5.94

A 42 Lee, Carlos CHW R 5.76

A 48 Gerut, Jody CLE L 5.47

A 51 Pena, Carlos DET L 5.46

A 53 Vizquel, Omar CLE B 5.42

A 54 Gonzalez, Juan KC R 5.42

A 55 Munson, Eric DET L 5.33

A 56 Guillen, Carlos DET B 5.31

A 65 Guiel, Aaron KC L 4.66

A 69 Blake, Casey CLE R 4.53

A 71 Higginson, Bobby DET L 4.42

A 74 Graffanino, Tony KC R 4.07

 

A 81 Harris, Willie CHW L 3.54

A 85 Vina, Fernando DET L 3.37

A 89 Monroe, Craig DET R 3.22

A 90 Guzman, Cristian MIN B 3.17

A 93 Crisp, Coco CLE B 2.96

A 95 Rivas, Luis MIN R 2.84

A 96 Crede, Joe CHW R 2.82

 

Whoever thought the ALC was going to be a weak division don't know jack.

 

B 1 Inge, Brandon DET R 11.33

B 5 Harvey, Ken KC R 8.61

B 8 Ryan, Michael MIN L 7.91

B 13 Uribe, Juan CHW R 7.27

B 15 Stairs, Matt KC L 7.04

B 16 Olivo, Miguel CHW R 6.89

B 18 Broussard, Ben CLE L 6.55

B 19 Valentin, Jose CHW B 6.42

B 23 Gload, Ross CHW L 5.99

B 29 Punto, Nick MIN B 5.19

B 30 Hunter, Torii MIN R 5.04

B 32 Laker, Tim CLE R 4.95

B 35 Sanchez, Alex DET L 4.77

B 36 Rowand, Aaron CHW R 4.76

B 37 Blanco, Andres KC B 4.41

B 40 Santiago, Benito KC R 4.03

B 41 Alomar, Sandy Jr. CHW R 3.91

B 42 Escobar, Alex CLE R 3.87

B 49 Cuddyer, Michael MIN R 2.95

B 50 Berroa, Angel KC R 2.94

B 52 Merloni, Lou CLE R 2.60

B 53 Lopez, Mendy KC R 2.53

B 59 Perez, Timo CHW L 1.49

B 69 Norton, Greg DET B .51

 

C 1 Mauer, Joe MIN L 94.28

C 3 Young, Dmitri DET B 19.56

C 5 Relaford, Desi KC B 11.55

C 7 Stinnett, Kelly KC R 8.63

C 11 Bowen, Rob MIN B 5.93

C 12 Dransfeldt, Kelly CHW R 5.57

C 15 LeCroy, Matthew MIN R 3.68

C 16 Shelton, Chris DET R 2.79

C 20 Infante, Omar DET R 1.95

 

Get your pace makers ready because the rest of the games in the ALC are going to more of the same. These teams can flat out hit! All of them.

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The K-out vs Sweeney with 1 on was worth as much as MJ's entire 7th.

 

Yeah but it was his fault the runner was on in the first place.

 

This is the second time you give Koch AoG because he didn't suck badly and his future is vital to the Sox. Should we start giving BoG to Willie because he gets a couple of infield hits - afterall HE is just as important as Koch?

 

I just think it's strange that 1 scoreless inning is more important than 2. If Mike Jackson had given up Loaiza's runs and then pitched screless innings, then maybe I could see it.

 

I am fine with Koch instead of Action Jackson in this case, so I withdraw the challenge......,But, again, in the FUTURE beware of the temptation to reward a "feel good story" player over a low-key one who may or may not deserve it more.

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http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/alp04.htm

 

ALC NPERA rankings:

 

A 2 Westbrook, Jake CLE R 1.56

A 3 Sabathia, C.C. CLE L 2.05

A 11 Schoeneweis, Scott CHW L 2.80

A 12 Loaiza, Esteban CHW R 2.86

A 16 Robertson, Nate DET L 3.09

A 22 Maroth, Mike DET L 3.56

A 23 Santana, Johan MIN L 3.71

A 24 Garland, Jon CHW R 3.83

A 27 Davis, Jason CLE R 3.98

A 29 Lee, Cliff CLE L 4.25

A 30 Buehrle, Mark CHW L 4.29

A 32 Silva, Carlos MIN R 4.42

A 36 D'Amico, Jeff C. CLE R 4.53

A 37 Affeldt, Jeremy KC L 4.66

A 41 Johnson, Jason DET R 4.96

A 42 Bonderman, Jeremy DET R 5.08

A 43 Radke, Brad MIN R 5.10

A 45 Anderson, Brian KC L 5.29

A 49 Lohse, Kyle MIN R 6.18

A 51 May, Darrell KC L 6.92

A 53 Cornejo, Nate DET R 7.20

 

If CLE can find a closer, look out. That team is loaded with talent.

Glad to see MIN starters struggling. Detroit's for real as well.

Will this season give us all heart attacks?

 

B 6 Fultz, Aaron MIN L 1.23

B 7 Field, Nate KC R 1.23

B 9 Romero, J.C. MIN L 1.24

B 13 Rincon, Juan MIN R 1.43

B 18 Cotts, Neal CHW L 1.76

B 23 Reyes, Dennys KC L 1.99

B 24 Grimsley, Jason KC R 2.07

B 27 Gobble, Jimmy KC L 2.44

B 38 Jackson, Mike CHW R 3.44

B 39 Betancourt, Rafael CLE R 3.45

B 40 Yan, Esteban DET R 3.49

B 43 Stanford, Jason CLE L 3.57

B 44 Camp, Shawn KC R 3.57

B 45 Levine, Al DET R 3.59

B 46 Koch, Billy CHW R 3.65

B 52 Patterson, Danny DET R 3.98

B 54 Roa, Joe MIN R 4.05

B 58 Wright, Dan CHW R 4.79

B 59 Sullivan, Scott KC R 4.79

B 60 Nathan, Joe MIN R 4.83

B 63 Marte, Damaso CHW L 5.22

B 64 Pulido, Carlos MIN L 5.31

B 66 Politte, Cliff CHW R 5.46

B 69 Cressend, Jack CLE R 5.67

B 74 Greisinger, Seth MIN R 6.74

B 78 Colyer, Steve DET L 7.09

B 79 Durbin, Chad CLE R 8.15

B 81 Knotts, Gary DET R 8.54

B 82 Riske, David CLE R 9.01

 

MIN & KC dominate the Bullpen ranks in ALC. It's CLE's obvious weakness.

CHW is about average. Let's all pray that Wright becomes a 5th starter.

 

C 6 Huisman, Justin KC R 1.41

C 11 Cerda, Jaime KC L 2.12

C 15 Takatsu, Shingo CHW R 2.92

C 17 Mulholland, Terry MIN L 3.44

C 19 Leskanic, Curtis KC R 3.57

C 20 Walker, Jamie DET L 3.62

C 22 Jimenez, Jose CLE R 3.76

C 24 Adkins, Jon CHW R 4.07

C 26 Carrasco, D.J. KC R 4.39

C 27 Robertson, Jeriome CLE L 4.67

C 30 Urbina, Ugueth DET R 5.70

C 31 White, Rick CLE R 6.51

C 32 Lee, Dave CLE R 6.87

C 33 Appier, Kevin KC R 6.92

C 37 Laker, Tim CLE R 7.42

C 39 Stewart, Scott CLE L 8.15

C 44 Tadano, Kazuhito CLE R 11.43

C 48 Anderson, Jason CLE R 16.18

 

CLE has no BP help to turn too. KC & the SOX lead this class.

 

So in the first month we can now see the obvious strengths & weaknesses of the ALC.

 

Hitting: MIN > CLE > CHW > KC > DET

But there isn't a lot of distance betw them.

 

Starters: CLE > CHW > DET >> MIN > KC

Considerable distance betw the front 3 & the back 2.

 

Relief: MIN > KC > CHW > DET >> CLE

 

Wins: KC 6, CLE 8, DET 12, CHW 12, MIN 14

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Yeah but it was his fault the runner was on in the first place.

 

This is the second time you give Koch AoG because he didn't suck badly and his future is vital to the Sox.    Should we start giving BoG to Willie because he gets a couple of infield hits - afterall HE is just as important as Koch?

 

I just think it's strange that 1 scoreless inning is more important than 2.  If Mike Jackson had given up Loaiza's runs and then pitched screless innings, then maybe I could see it.

 

I am fine with Koch instead of Action Jackson in this case, so I withdraw the challenge......,But, again, in the FUTURE beware of the temptation to reward a "feel good story" player over a low-key one who may or may not deserve it more.

I agree with this season "feel good stories" are likely to almost seem routine.

But this was not decided on a FGS basis.

MJ gave up a double & Koch did not give up a hit.

If MJ had only given up a single he would have won.

Koch's 9th was dominating. He did not allow one solid ball in play.

MJ had 5 balls in play, 3 of them were solidly hit.

 

So there's no general rule applied here.

Think of it this way, if Koch had surrendered just one more base MJ wins the award.

It's a tough decision but there can be only one award winner.

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Bf, 4/27 is an even a closer call. I moved this post to where it's after 4/28.

At least now the CLE games are back to back posts.

 

Any ways here's my detailed explanation of why Marte over Cotts.

In general I don't penalize pitches for situations beyond their control.

I feel a WP is worse than a W because all RONs move when it happens.

Likewise when a pitcher doesn't hold a runner on 2B that's worse than a SF.

Normally the difficulty of stealing 3B warrants 15 pts, but I felt Neil was only

2/3rds to blame so I only charged him 10.

 

CLEVELAND 7TH

-O Vizquel singled to right. 10

JG=10

-N Cotts relieved J Garland.

-O Vizquel to second on wild pitch by N Cotts. 10

-O Vizquel stole third. 10

NC=20

 

CLEVELAND 8TH

-C Politte relieved N Cotts.

-V Martinez homered to right. 50

-R Belliard singled to right. 10

-A Escobar walked, R Belliard to second. 7

CP=67

-D Marte relieved C Politte.

-M Lawton walked, R Belliard to third, A Escobar to second. 9

-O Vizquel hit sacrifice fly to left, R Belliard scored. 10

DM=19

 

Cotts inherited RON 1, gave up a WP, & SB to 3rd. Then he got 3 outs.

Marte inherited RON 1,2 gave up a W & SF. Then he got 2 more outs.

 

Because there situations are different you have to make a theoretical judgement call.

It is more likely that Cotts gives up a run in a RON 1,2 0 outs with his WP & SB combo then it is for Marte to give up a run in a RON 1, 0 outs with his W & FO combo.

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I agree with this season "feel good stories" are likely to almost seem routine.

 

As long as validity and reliability of your approach is not compromised.

 

Watching "between the stats" (ie putting more weight on clutch/momentum-changing plays and overlooked, often unquantified factors) and making close call decisions using purely subjective reasoning is good -- even necessary.

 

Falling prey to the "a walk-off single is > a 3-run homer in the 1st" type thinking, however, is not.

 

So far, you've managed to avoid the sentimental traps and conventional wisdom fallacies, but the season is 6 months long. That's why you were wise to create this thread -- people may catch something which you didn't and challenge. :cheers

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Frank won the POG by a thin margin (61-52) over Maggs.

Some might argue that Maggs GOG honor should put him over the time, but I don't agree. Frank's production at the plate resulted in an RBI double & run scored in the big rally. Maggs homer ignited the rally.

 

But Frank's long counts & walk before the rally helped make the rally possible.

Frank rarely earns a walk from a 3-0 or 3-1 count. He usually battles for the walk

& that means his walks typically take 10 pitches.

 

Thomas & Koney ate 17 pitches from Hentgen in the 4th. Thomas earned the walk & Koney struck out. But that kind of wear & tear led to 2 hits in the 5th, followed by the big 6th. When margins are thin as to whom is deserving of the award these things are looked at.

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Frank won the POG by a thin margin (61-52) over Maggs.

Some might argue that Maggs GOG honor

 

I am glad you picked Frank because Maggs wasn't a "default" GoG (Olivo and Crede have 1 each where they didn't do anything spectacular but handle pitchers well and/or just happened to field the most chances) -- he actually saved 3 bases and a run (which puts him over the top "statistically").

 

But he also choked in 1st/3rd situation when Sox REALLY needed it and Frankly, Frank was just a little more "valuable" for reasons you menioned.

 

Good close call.

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I am glad you picked Frank because Maggs wasn't a "default" GoG (Olivo and Crede have 1 each where they didn't do anything spectacular but handle pitchers well and/or just happened to field the most chances) -- he actually saved 3 bases and a run (which puts him over the top "statistically"). 

 

But he also choked in 1st/3rd situation when Sox REALLY needed it and Frankly, Frank was just a little more "valuable" for reasons you menioned.

 

Good close call.

The big bop walkers of the league are really unsung heroes.

This goes for Giambi & Bonds as well.

 

Consider the value in pitch count of a Frank Thomas walk.

Not only is it betw 8-10 pitches for Frank's ab, but it's usually a min of 4 pitches

for the next ab his walk generates. So an 8 pitch walk is really worth about 12 in the pitch count. I think this is why the SOX are able to really battle back in late innings.

Thomas not only does this against starters but he does it against the relief core as well.

An 8-10 pitch walk against a reliever usually means he will face one less batter than he normally would. That doesn't show up in a scorer's table but it plays a big role in the game.

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4/30 defensive challenge: Maggs or Wille?

 

TORONTO 3RD

-F Catalanotto reached on infield single to second.

-C Delgado flied out to right.

 

TORONTO 9TH

-O Hudson hit by pitch.

-C Woodward grounded into fielder's choice to second, O Hudson out at second.

 

Maggs play on Delgado was made greater because of Willie's inability to make a play at second. I'm not saying that it was an easy play to make, but infield singles are rare enough to cause doubt. Likewise Wille's failure to gen a DP in the 9th could have hurt the SOX. Overall Maggs had better glove play than Willie, but Harris did have the web gem.

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4/30 defensive challenge:  Maggs or Wille?

REPOSTED (I deleted it in the other thread):

 

Not even close.

 

Magglio saved an RBI double. Willie saved a bases empty single.

 

Magglio also kept Delgado to a single by playing a carom off the wall and making a beam throw to 2nd as to leave no doubt. All the while Willie screwed up his second DP in as many days by making a mediocre feed to Uribe; if Koch gives up a homer, the game is tied instead of Sox up by 1.

 

Willie is even for the day while Maggs is +3

 

My picks may seem arbitrary, but believe me they're not. Jauggs knows that because I sometimes PM him the details and sometimes list them here

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Harold Reynolds is an idiot. He believes OBP is over-rated for the big boppers because of their slow speed. So what he did was look up the number of times they were on base vs their runs scored in 2003. In Thomas' case he said he scored 45 out of 200+ times. Giambi was slightly better.

 

But here's the fallacy in his so-called logic. He didn't bother to look up the average pitch counts assoc with the walks. He didn't bother to look up wins vs walks. He didn't bother to look up any many times ANY BODY scores in an inning when a big bopper walks. He didn't bother to consider big bopper walks vs GIDP.

 

I believe OBP is one of the most important stats in baseball because it leads to greater pressure on the opposing pitcher. It's what I consider the wear down factor. This is oblivious to someone like Reynolds but any one following this years SOX games can see this. If there is one on & Thomas works a 10 pitch walk, the next guy can drive in a run with just a hit. That's what Reynolds completely ignores & this is the what the big bopper walks produce around the league.

 

The objective for any team against a starter is to get the starter out of the game as

soon as possible. This usually increases the odds of the team with scoring against

the reliever. Big bopper walks help obtain that objective.

 

This is also why in the Sagarin ratings:

#2 - Frank Thomas 11.45

 

Why is he #2?

16R, 20H, 5HR, 10RBI, 23W, 39TB, 63AB, 44OB

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