Soxbadger Posted May 15, 2004 Share Posted May 15, 2004 No you cant predict the stock market, but its not all chance either. There are indicators, just like there are in baseball, "Has a player improved his bb vs ks", obp, every statistic is an indicator of something. Look at Calos Lee, in old terms, this year is terrible compared to last. 2003 CWS 158 623 100 181 35 1 31 113 37 91 18 4 .291 .331 .499 .830 2004 CWS 33 120 15 29 7 0 4 10 17 18 3 2 .242 .348 .400 .748 But if you were a new OBP man, you would say, while Lee is hitting .050 lower, his OBP is actually up this year. In fact compared to last year his strike out to walk ratio has drastically improved. So why has Lee declined? The answer that is becoming more and more apparent is that when he was in the 2nd spot he was getting much better pitches to hit, and now that he is lower, they pitchers are staying away, preferring to walk him than let him hurt them. 2002 has a similar line to what I would predict from him in 2004, note that he had more BB than K's that year, and had a higher OBP than his best year 2003. If Lee is moved back into the 2 hole, it should be expected he gets better pitches, and that should translate to hits. He will also probably strike out more because he can over swing so some of those good pitchs will just get missed. The reality is, Lee may have improved, just is a victim of circumstances. I dont necessarily agree with this argument, but if you cared about OBP more than other things, you might be inclined to trade for Lee now while he is struggling, expecting when you can put him say... In front of Chavez and Dye, hed project to all of a sudden return to .275+, 30, 100, which could really change the A's lineup, or the M's for that matter. You just have to pitch your product right, if Williams calls up Ricciardi, Beane, and Depodesta, and tells them that he has a guy whos really going to fit well into their system, he might be able to get one to buy into it and give us a deal we want. Its worth a try, because its not about statistics, or the product, its about packaging it right. SB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandoFan Posted May 15, 2004 Share Posted May 15, 2004 So why has Lee declined? The answer that is becoming more and more apparent is that when he was in the 2nd spot he was getting much better pitches to hit, and now that he is lower, they pitchers are staying away, preferring to walk him than let him hurt them. 2002 has a similar line to what I would predict from him in 2004, note that he had more BB than K's that year, and had a higher OBP than his best year 2003. If Lee is moved back into the 2 hole, it should be expected he gets better pitches, and that should translate to hits. He will also probably strike out more because he can over swing so some of those good pitchs will just get missed. The reality is, Lee may have improved, just is a victim of circumstances. Victim? What are you talking about! Lee's mechanics are awful right now; he lost confidence and his pitch selection has never been his strong suit, something that he shares with the rest of his teammates not named Thomas. He is pulling a Konerko right now, and last year you could have put Konerko in the 2-spot and he still would have sucked. They tried Caballo in the 2 spot already and he was bad - overmatched. Until he stops being so greedy and uppercut-pulling every pitch, he'll descent further and further into the funk. ML pitchers have a different approach to him now, and it has little to do with Konerko -- Paulie had a very good April and yet Carlos still sucked in front of him. Carlos could have smoked Rincon's outside heater for a double to RF, but he chose to pull it and missed 3 straight -- microcosm for the way this season has gone so far for him. Willie Harris is the OBP man. Carlos Lee is getting paid big bucks for 525+ Slugging %. You just have to pitch your product right, if Williams calls up Ricciardi, Beane, and Depodesta, and tells them that he has a guy whos really going to fit well into their system, he might be able to get one to buy into it and give us a deal we want. Kenny will get raped by those guys. Not that Billius Caesar is stupid enough to trade for Carlos in the first place. He already f***ed up with Dye once -- and Lee never approached Dye's upside. Both Carlos and Paulie f***ed up. We needed them to put up GAUDY numbers in April and May and thus create REAL trade value....Needless to say, the exact opposite happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Chappas Posted May 15, 2004 Share Posted May 15, 2004 I think it could be time to blow this team up. While sitting at the game yesterday they had a stat that told the whole story. In the last five years 3 times the leading RBI man for the Twins was under 100. In the two years where the leader was over 100, they had 103 and 105. Jacque Jones career high is 88. Yet they consistently win and kick our ass because they have great defense and play smart. The stupidity of last eve showed me that nothing will change with this team and every single player should be offered up. The lack of execution is astounding. Oh and I will be at my 10th game tonight, I need to seek professional help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soxbadger Posted May 15, 2004 Share Posted May 15, 2004 Hes had 8 at bats in the 2 spot this year, after having a great year last year. I wouldnt say thats entirely a fair shot to see how he would adjust if given a week or two to play there. But you have already made your mind up, so its not worth trying to convince you. Just like you had made your mind up that Harris sucked that last time we argued. You seem to worship other GM's, and crucify your own. I dont have the time for self-loathing, if you dont even want to consider the fact that Lee may be good, and that there are probably teams who want him, then whats the point. Ill say this though, more teams want Lee than your prized possession Valentin, or else hed already be gone. SB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandoFan Posted May 15, 2004 Share Posted May 15, 2004 Hes had 8 at bats in the 2 spot this year, after having a great year last year. I wouldnt say thats entirely a fair shot to see how he would adjust if given a week or two to play there. But you have already made your mind up, so its not worth trying to convince you. Just like you had made your mind up that Harris sucked that last time we argued. You seem to worship other GM's, and crucify your own. I dont have the time for self-loathing, if you dont even want to consider the fact that Lee may be good, and that there are probably teams who want him, then whats the point. Ill say this though, more teams want Lee than your prized possession Valentin, or else hed already be gone. SB Watch a game or two, do me a favor. Hitting in the #2 spot doesn't magically cure anything. When Lee was going good in 2000, he was kicking ass from the #7. Until he rights himself (mechanics, confidence and pitch selection), switching places won't help much -- if any. Yadayadayada. Blablablablabl Yadadadada-ing still. Neither Valentin nor Lee have much trade value right now. That's why BOTH of them are here, lol. Unless they jump over the 900 OPS line (they won't), you're gonna have difficulty convincing other GM's to want to give you something really nice in return. BF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greasywheels121 Posted May 15, 2004 Share Posted May 15, 2004 I find it odd we're in the mix of rumors to get Carlos Beltran. Obviously this would mean Mags would be on his way out, but what says we can sign Beltran? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandoFan Posted May 15, 2004 Share Posted May 15, 2004 but what says we can sign Beltran? Pipe dreaming? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winninguglyin83 Posted May 15, 2004 Share Posted May 15, 2004 beltran is an absurd dream Sox fans would be better off avoiding. He'll want wayyyy too much money. Boston and New York will never let it happen. And JR won't even consider it because his agent is Darth Vader. Aaron Guiel, maybe. Carlos Beltran. No way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandoFan Posted May 15, 2004 Share Posted May 15, 2004 Aaron Guiel, maybe. Carlos Beltran. No way I don't think you're giving KW nearly enough credit. I am sure he can yield us a Ben Grieve if they chips fall just right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EvilJester99 Posted May 15, 2004 Share Posted May 15, 2004 Plus there is no way in hell KC would trade Beltran to a divison rival. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted May 15, 2004 Share Posted May 15, 2004 Plus there is no way in hell KC would trade Beltran to a divison rival. They could give a s***. It's US that should be worried about something like that. We don't want to give KC something that will bite us in the ass 4 years down the road. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purdue129 Posted May 15, 2004 Share Posted May 15, 2004 i know it's been said over and over and over again, but... Beltran = Boras not going to happen and if a trade did happen, he's not going to get re-signed by the Sox at the end of his contract Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Beast Posted May 15, 2004 Share Posted May 15, 2004 I don't think you're giving KW nearly enough credit. I am sure he can yield us a Ben Grieve if they chips fall just right. a Ben Grieve would suck major balls IMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted May 16, 2004 Share Posted May 16, 2004 a Ben Grieve would suck major balls IMO I sense someone has a bad sense of humor. To make it ever clearer, Brando was making a crack at a joke(and it wasn't a bad attempt either, like I have made several times). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Beast Posted May 16, 2004 Share Posted May 16, 2004 I sense someone has a bad sense of humor. To make it ever clearer, Brando was making a crack at a joke(and it wasn't a bad attempt either, like I have made several times). Oh I'm horrible with jokes, sorry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxFan1 Posted May 16, 2004 Share Posted May 16, 2004 Keep Maggs. That's all Im saying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Socks Posted May 16, 2004 Share Posted May 16, 2004 Regarding trades, they usually happen in July, not May. By that time we should be fifteen games behind the Twins -- they are that much better than us, IMHO. That means we will be trading FOR prospects. Lee and Maggs could both be on the block two months from now. Maybe Loaiza, too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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