Pitchers the Sox Should Acquire

[BrandoFan]

Freddy Garcia

When Garcia is on, there are few pitchers in the majors who are better.  But he runs hot and cold and is too emotional at times.  Garcia doesn't strike out as many as he should and surrendered more home runs in 2003 (31) than he should, especially with half his starts coming at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field.  BOTTOM LINE: Plenty of talent, but plenty of risk.  Let someone else take the gamble.

(Sporting News excerpt)

 

Freddy Garcia's 2003 Season

It was one of the most inconsistent seasons by a pitcher in recent memory. Freddy Garcia, counted on to be the ace of the Mariners' staff, pitched like an ace for weeks at a time, but also went through stretches where he got hammered regularly. He bounced back and forth between the two extremes so often that it was impossible to know what to expect from him on any given day. Understandably, the situation produced frustration all around, not the least of which from Garcia himself, whose maturity had been questioned in the past.

(ESPN excerpt)

 

Freddy's 2003 Season continued

It looks like Freddy's heading for his worst season as a pro. His ERA, walks, and homers are up and his strikeouts are down -- all bad signs. To many pundits, it seems as if this season is just a continuation of Garcia's poor second half last year. Derek Zumsteg, for instances, argues that Garcia is struggling due to a poor work ethic and an injury that occured sometime last season (triggering the collapse).

 

Zumsteg knows a lot more about the Mariners than I do, but I don't really buy either of his arguments. If Garcia is such a "partier" as Zumsteg claims, why did it just begin to affect him the second half of last year? He was able to succeed for 3.5 seasons with this alleged kind of lifestyle, yet he all the sudden begins to suffer from it? David Wells sure seems to be thriving and he's clearly in worse physical shape than Freddy and is a huge partier. Hell, if drinking and doing drugs causes struggles like Garcia's, every athlete in the world is due for a big collapse.

 

A much more plausible explanation is that Garcia is nursing an injury. At least this scenario explains why Freddy began to fade in the second half last year. I'm still not buying it, however, as from what I've seen of his starts this year, Garcia has been able to dial it up into the mid-90s. Common sense would tell us that a labrum tear would hamper his ability to throw the ball that fast. The "hidden injury" theory also fails to explain how Garcia has turned in excellent performances during his bad streak.

 

While the purported lack of preparation/focus may be affecting Garcia's game, I think the two main culprits behind his struggles this year are competition and lefties.

 

So far this season, Freddy has faced Oakland twice, Texas twice, Cleveland twice, New York once, Chicago once, and Detroit once. Coming into his last two starts (New York and Cleveland), Garcia had a 3.83 ERA. That 3.83 ERA came in 4 games against good offenses (Oakland and Texas), 2 games against mediocre offenses (Chicago and Cleveland) and 1 game against a terrible offense (Detroit). Not too shabby, IMHO. He followed this decent run (3-3, 3.83) with two brutal games against New York and Cleveland that dropped him to 3-5 and shot his ERA up to 5.47. He's pitched 4 bad games this year, one each against Oakland, Texas, New York, and Cleveland. I think it's fair to give him a pass here, as these are some of the best offenses in baseball. Yes, he's going to need to pitch better against solid competition, with the talent in the West and the unbalanced schedule, but we shouldn't just give up on a guy with Garcia's talent this early in the season.

 

The second big problem I see with Garcia is the fact that lefties have blitzed him this year at a .298/.377/.526 (.903 OPS) clip. This is troubling, of course, but looking at ESPN's three year splits (00-02), we can see that lefties haven't given Garcia any more trouble (.749 OPS) than they have Jeff Weaver (.758), Tim Hudson (.728), or Joel Pineiro (.744). Even last year, when Garcia collapsed in the second half, lefties only had a .732 OPS against him. Righties managed a .724 OPS against him last season, suggesting that his struggles weren't merely the result of lefties clobbering him.

 

The Mariner coaching staff obviously realizes Freddy is having trouble getting lefties out, since they moved his planned Tuesday start to Wednesday. Pitching coach Bryan Price said the move was made "in order to fine-tune some mechanical changes." MLB reports that Garcia has moved "to the third base side of the pitching rubber and also has been working on getting more consistent arm action" and I've also heard/seen/read that he might be working on a cut fastball in order to get lefties out.

(battery.blogspot excerpt)

 

What happened in 2002?

Issues ranging from concentration to composure helped contribute to his decline after the All-Star break in 2002, when he went 5-5 wth a plus 5 ERA. Garcia hasn't exactly turned the corner and left all his struggles behind.

(seattle newspaper excerpt, "the olympian")

 

What Freddy Garcia Has To Say About It

"Bad pitch, too high. It made me mad." -Freddy Garcia

(marinermusings excerpt)

 

What Brandofan Has To Say About It

"The guy is just a lazy, cocaine-dabbling asshole."

 

Brando later said that the cocaine part is probably bulls***, though.

Freddy Garcia, even with his salary, recent struggles and M's being in trouble standings-wise, will NOT come cheap. Don't let them tell you otherwise.

 

Carlos Lee + Honel + Munoz.........Are you willing to give that up for a volatile

Colon Jr. with those 3-year splits?

 

I am not.

[knightni]

I don't believe Seattle would want Lee.

 

He is too highly paid for their budget and not quick enough to play LF all the time at Safeco.

 

They would probably want a younger, faster OF prospect that they can sit on for a year or two while they rebuild.

[BrandoFan]

They would probably want a younger, faster OF prospect that they can sit on for a year or two while they rebuild

 

Well, they wouldn't have the balls to ask for Reed, Honel and Munoz....would they?

 

And Seattle is not rebuilding. They can't risk alienating that fan-base. They bring in serious dough. Even if/when M's call it quits on '04, they will be looking to RELOAD for 2005.

[Soxbadger]

Seattle will not get Honel, Munoz, and Lee for Garcia.

 

Seattle will not even get an offer that is in that ballpark for Garcia.

 

First there is only a few teams who will want to trade for Gracia (teams that can win this year). So lets say that 6 AL and 6 NL teams think they have a chance at the playoffs and therefore are looking to add a SP.

 

Some of those teams are not going to want or need Garcia, so I will say that at the time Garcia is traded there will be about 5-7 teams that are interested, 2-3 that are very interested.

 

This is where the problem comes in, there are plenty of pitchers who can go deep into games and post a sub 4 era. His age means nothing, because hes on the last year of his contract, so that greatly deppreciates his value. Then you will have teams who are firesaling because they need to save money this year.

 

That will be Seattle's main problem. As the season progresses, more and more teams will be willing to part with players on the last year of their contracts to get something in return. Therefore the amount of pitchers on the market will increase, while Garcia's value will still remain pretty consistent.

 

This is the same player Seattle was rumored to be non-tendering, and the whole league knows this. They also will see his home and away splits, and many teams will be reluctant to pull the trigger.

 

The reality is, Livan Hernandez will come much cheaper and could be just as good.

 

The same could be said for Benson, and that is just looking at low ranked teams who will for sure move some one.

 

I may be a huge fan of Garcia, but I think that Seattle would consider Lee for Garcia straight up, seeing as the Dodgers would of easily given us Odalis Perez in the offseason.

 

But thats just my opinion.

 

SB

[beck72]

Carlos Lee + Honel + Munoz.........Are you willing to give that up for a volatile

Colon Jr.  with those 3-year splits?

Even Randy Johnson in his prime didn't that high of a return. History has shown the market to be for guys in their walk year to be a top prospect, and two lesser prospects, give or take.

 

Considering Carlos Lee would be considered a "top prospect +", the Sox would be able to swing a deal with Carlos + a prospect. [That's if the M's would want Lee, a big if. Considering they need some young RBI guys, and don't have them in their system, why not].

 

Like you said, the M's fans won't tolerate a Clev. type rebuilding. I see Lee fitting in at LF or DH. [He'd be a nice DH for a team willing to spend cash].

[BrandoFan]

Seattle will not get Honel, Munoz, and Lee for Garcia.

 

Seattle will not even get an offer that is in that ballpark for Garcia.

 

The problem of course is that the rest of baseball world might not value Honel and Munoz as highly as Sox fans do. The former is having health issues, with a velocity drop both in 2002 and 2004, and the latter is a #9 prospect on the Sox depth chart, coming off subpar 2003 who has just been converted from a reliever; many will be sceptical (whether rightfully or not) of his fast start.

 

Lee......Once again, average fielding, weak-throwing, average baserunning, reckless hothead (mechanically incorrect dives in the OF and even worse slides into 2B where he slams into the bag and does a split - at 230 pounds!) LF'er with a good career OPS of 820 albeit half games in a hitter's park and a 15/2 contract.....He got off to a slow start in 2004, so that brings his 'value' down a bit as well.

 

Like it or not, Freddy Garcia will always be overrated because he is a pitcher with an ace stuff. Unlike Benson, there is actual track record of dominance (2001) and no injury history.

 

There will be teams, from Cubs (if Wood/Prior are on DL) to Dodgers to Red Sox to Padres to maybe even Twins....that will be hot on his trail if he continues this pace for another month.

 

Knowing what we know of his "baggage" and being the Sox fan, he is not worth Lee, Honel and Munoz. But Seattle and the rest of baseball, they will see things differently and might just put something along the lines of Reed-Honel-Munoz-Konerko or some such and not even bat an eye-lash.

[beck72]

Knowing what we know of his "baggage" and being the Sox fan, he is not worth Lee, Honel and Munoz.

Saying you know about a pro players "baggage", though nothing can be pointed to, such as an arrest or conviction, is idle speculation and in poor taste.

 

 

 

And, you underrate the talent the Sox have. Esp. as 3 of the 4 Sox minor league team has an over .500 record. [and the other one is close]

[Harry Chappas]

Who was Randy Johnson traded for?

[Soxbadger]

They dont need Lee in the outfield, if they traded for him he would likely be converted to 1b or DH.

 

He would replace Olerud or Martinez, both of who are having terrible years. The Mariners have minor league pitchers who they could replace Garcia with, Naegotte and theres another one I forget off the top of my head, and gain a valuable bat in a line up that has been dreadful.

 

There is something working against the Mariners, they need to win next year, if they are terrible this year.

 

Who else can they get who has as much upside as Lee does this year, and next year?

 

The minor league prospects teams will offer them, will mostly be 2-3 years away, and could not even become as good as Lee is at his worst, .280 30, 100.

 

Hes not Vladimer Guerroro, but for most teams hed be a great addition to the line uo.

 

Why would the Cubs, Red Sox, or any team over pay for Garcia?

 

If they are going to overpay and are a big budget team, they are going to set their sights on the Glavines, and Randy Johnsons of the world, plus the fact they need LHP instead of RHP gives us an edge.

 

Yanks, Red Sox, and Cubs all need a lefty, they have pitchers who are like Garcia already.

 

What will the Dodgers trade? Looney? Abercrombie?

 

They dont have the offense to match us in a trade, they could give Seattle more pitching, but Seattle needs to improve its offense.

 

And Seattle will see things more clearly as the trade deadline approaches and they are getting closer and closer to being stuck with Garcia for the rest of the year.

 

Garcia's value will some what be diminished by the fact most contenders this year will be looking for a lefty, not a righty.

 

Sox should get our pick of what pitcher we want, and at what price.

 

Therefore the overpaying of Garcia is unlikely, unless that is the pitcher they want above all others.

 

SB

[BrandoFan]

Saying you know about a pro players "baggage", though nothing can be pointed to, such as an arrest or conviction, is idle speculation and in poor taste.

 

 

 

The guy has a rep for being lazy and volatile (to say nothing of the drug rumors), not a great combo for an ace.

 

But that's not all what I meant by 'baggage'. His contract and home-away splits are also part of it.

 

And, you underrate the talent the Sox have. Esp. as 3 of the 4 Sox minor league team has an over .500 record. [and the other one is close]

 

:headshake

[Soxbadger]

If you read the Mariner's websites, you will see their fans want a player who is major league ready.

 

They are all dismissing a trade with the Cubs, because they have no outfielder or 1b to trade them now.

 

Where as the White Sox have both a of and a 1b who they could trade instantly for Garcia.

 

Mariners fans will not accept a white flag trade.

 

SB

[Gene Honda Civic]

What would it cost to get Garcia?

 

Well, What woud other teams who are interested be willing to part with? -- The Yanks are currently the only team I've heard that is as interested as us in getting Garcia NOW. All they have in the minors is a Catcher who is years away from the bigs. With only two real players (ChiSox, Yanks) there's not much they can get for Garcia rigth now.

 

So until more players come into the fold, which will happen as some teams heat up/cool off and we get closer to the trade deadline, The Mariner are going to hold onto Garcia and wait for the market to pick up.

[BrandoFan]

They dont need Lee in the outfield, if they traded for him he would likely be converted to 1b or DH

 

When you're a DH/1B, your production has to be significantly higher than if you're a LF.

 

Lee is what, 28, so it''s doubtful he will get better. 840 OPS is very nice, but nowdays when you make 15/2 and play corner OF, that much is expected.

 

If I am a Seattle GM, I have no compunction about asking for Honel-Munoz-Lee.

[Mr. Showtime]

Christ.

 

We need to go back to the off-season threads, where not many folks wanted Garica. Where the posts we're like "Well, I guess if we can give them Konerko or Jose it's ok."

 

Baseball is a funny game.

[Soxbadger]

The only problem with asking for so much is, the White Sox can take there ball and go home.

 

Right now we are in first place.

 

We play in the weakest division.

 

We can wait until the market changes to our liking.

 

Mean while the Mariners are a sinking ship, and soon will be to far down to even hope that they can make the playoffs this year.

 

Not to mention, the White Sox are in one of the worst divisions in Baseball, by All-Star break, the Tigers, Indians, Royals, and Twins, may all just throw in the towel. And hope for next year.

 

Our biggest asset is that if we are in first place, other teams in our division will be reluctant to try and trade to beat us, because they will know we can always trade for more and potentially increase our payroll to beat them.

 

The Mariners Gm will have to realize that unless hes going to try for a Delgado, in which hes going to have to part with some of their prospects, Garcia will fetch them at most a Lee type player in the majors, or some prospects in the minors.

 

Also if the Mariners fail to trade Garcia, then they lose him, and who knows what they will get for him, especially since offering arbitration might be risky.

 

They could end up getting nothing, and being in last place with Garcia, and then not even getting draft picks.

 

When you look at it that way, getting Lee is a great deal.

 

Showtime,

 

I know, part of me thinks that Valentin, PK, or Lee for Garcia might in the end work.

 

The reality is, Garcia was almost nontendered, and most teams will just rather wait it out then overpay.

 

SB

[beck72]

The guy has a rep for being lazy and volatile (to say nothing of the drug rumors), not a great combo for an ace.

Rumors really don't carry much weight with me. Esp those that talk about alleged criminal activity without any proof.

 

Tags such as "lazy", "volatile", are also unfair. I've said before, if acquiring Garcia is alright w/ Ozzie [which I'm sure he has an opinion to offer KW] that's good enough for me. You can throw those labels and rumors in the trash [where hopefully they belong] because Ozzie doesn't want anyone messing w/ his team, and anyone to mess with his success as a manager.

 

The other baggage about pitching splits is overblown. His career home era is 3.76, away 4.07. Home BAA- .244, Away BAA-.255. 59 HR's allowed at home, 56 allowed away. Garcia hasn't exactly "padded" his numbers at home and been horrible on the road.

[Steff]

Mariners fans will not accept a white flag trade.

Neither would most Sox fans in '97...

 

Apparently the mgmt missed reading that memo..

[Soxbadger]

lol

 

Theres a slight difference, I think Mr. Nintendo cares about his fans.

 

Sb

[beck72]

The only problem with asking for so much is, the White Sox can take there ball and go home.

 

Right now we are in first place.

 

We play in the weakest division.

 

We can wait until the market changes to our liking.

 

Mean while the Mariners are a sinking ship, and soon will be to far down to even hope that they can make the playoffs this year.

I agree, the market tilts in the Sox favor. The market also was off when the Sox acquired Colon. Everyone thought that Mon. would be asking for the moon. Yet they were stuck with a contract they couldn't afford.

 

The same market exists for Sea. They'll still want to compete this year and next. They have other SP's in AAA to plug in with a Garcia trade. But no other sluggers are on the market that could fit their needs [a young RBI guy]. No team will trade a potential or existing 30 HR 100 RBI guy to Sea for a 1 year rental. The Sox can without being hurt.

 

Sea. can't wait two more months to make a move. The Sox can.

[Rowand44]

Reinsdorf would pick up $7 Million if the team was in contention. He picked up $$ last year when they needed to make an upgrade.

No he didn't the Rangers and Mets did.

[Chisoxfn]

Well, 1st off, if the Sox are giving a package of Lee, Honel and Munoz, they aught to be getting Garcia and Piniero.

 

Their isn't a chance in hell that the Sox would be including either of Munoz or Honel with Lee for Garcia. Garcia has pitched very well, but he doesn't have that much value.

 

Now could someone like Borchard, Diaz, Rauch make sense for the Mariners along with Lee now thats a possibility. But anything more then that and the Mariners aren't going to unload Garcia to anyone.

 

Also, I think Sox fans undervalue Lee. Everything I read this offseason said that their were tons of phone calls and teams wanting to acquire Lee and he has quite a bit of trade value. In fact, some people within the media speculated that Lee could of had as much value as Maggs because his contract is more affordable.

 

Munoz is one guy I Wouldn't trade though. I'd deal Honel well before I'd give up Munoz.

[Soxbadger]

Sox fans just are very quick to jump off the bridge on a player.

 

Lee is already up to .270, in a week or so he could be over .300.

 

In my eyes hes just as valuable as Garcia, just the White Sox are fortunate enough to have plenty of outfield depth in the minors, where the Mariners are fortunate to have pitching depth.

 

Value is relative, and to many offense starved teams, theyd love to have Lee.

 

SB

[Chisoxfn]

Personally I'd rather move Konerko then Lee. I also know their are some that don't want to move either Konerko or Lee.

 

My only thought is the Sox need to add another pitcher, preferably a good one and to do so they will have to add payroll. Unfortunately the Sox don't generate the revenue to add payroll so they will have to give up some payroll in order to take on the new contract.

 

The only two contracts that I think could be moved are Lee and Konerko and both would fit in with the Mariners. I guess the Sox could move Magglio if they wanted, but its pretty hard to trade your best player when trying to improve your ball club, even if he may leave this offseason.

 

Its quite obvious what the two biggest concenrs with this club are.

 

1. Finding another starter

2. Dominate Right handed lineup.

 

Moving Konerko or Lee opens up a slot for a left handed bat. The question is whether or not Gload can fill that need or if the Sox would then have to make a 2nd trade to get that bat.

 

For that reason moving Konerko or Lee could result in the Sox getting a pitcher and then making another move. All I know is I got an idea that Kenny won't be sitting pat and when he's on the move he doesn't look to get a mediocre guy, he tries to make a splash.

[Soxbadger]

I would prefer to move Konerko, just to be honest I doubt trading him will be worth the return we get.

 

I think that Lee has a better value, and Konerko could put up just as good of numbers as Lee, therefore we might as well trade our higher value and net better returns.

 

Konerko's trade value at this point, is probably less than his actual worth to the team, therefore I would hold on to him unless a good deal came around, or he started heating up and his value increased.

 

Sb

[Chisoxfn]

I would prefer to move Konerko, just to be honest I doubt trading him will be worth the return we get.

 

I think that Lee has a better value, and Konerko could put up just as good of numbers as Lee, therefore we might as well trade our higher value and net better returns.

 

Konerko's trade value at this point, is probably less than his actual worth to the team, therefore I would hold on to him unless a good deal came around, or he started heating up and his value increased.

 

Sb

Heres a question:

Would you guys do a Konerko, Diaz, and mid level prospect (somewhere from Ruddy Yan to a Thomas Brice) for Freddy Garcia?

 

And do you think the Mariners would accept that deal?

 

To me it would give the Mariners a bat in Konerko (although what they do with Olerud I have no idea), a good starting prospect in Diaz (I'd rather give them Rauch if the Sox could sell him on all his former hype) and then a guy like Yan or Brice who could help the Mariners in a few years.

 

I know I'd do the deal. Then I'd stick Gload at 1st and see what he can do. If he struggles the Sox can maybe use Borchard or they could go along the lines of picking up a 1st baseman.

 

It shouldn't be too hard to pick up a 1st baseman or someone that could produce offensively and play 1st at the deadline.