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Magglio Ordonez


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How much should the SOX spend on Maggs?  

48 members have voted

  1. 1. How much should the SOX spend on Maggs?

    • 10% of the payroll (7 mil)
      2
    • 15% of the payroll (10 mil)
      20
    • 20% of the payroll (14 mil)
      19
    • MORE
      2
    • OTHER
      5


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BS aside, how much do you think Magglio Ordonez is worth to the SOX?

 

I believe based on his being the #3 best producer overall over the past 4 yrs,

that Maggs is not worth any more than 15% of the payroll. Frank is certainly worth that next year. Assume a 70 mill payroll.

 

If you choose more than 15% please tell us what team you would put together in 2005.

If you suggest a higher payroll please tell us how you are going to increase revenue to pay for it.

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I don't think any corner outfielder should be payed more than 11-12 million a year (unless you are barry bonds, or larry walker at his best).

 

I think it is relatively easy to find a guy who will hit .280-.290 with 20-25 homeruns and a respectable ops at corner outfield positions for 5-8 million.

 

Mags is a great player, and i would love to see him back. But he is not Vlad, even if he wants vlad money.

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Magglio Ordonez compared to other players deserves no more than 9

Garret Anderson - signed 4-year, $48 mill deal with Angels

 

2000 - .286 35 117 .827

2001 - .289 28 123 .792

2002 - .306 29 123 .871

2003 - .315 29 116 .885

 

Magglio Ordonez - looking for $15 mill a year(I think he deserves $12-13)

 

2000 - .315 32 126 .917

2001 - .305 31 113 .914

2002 - .320 38 135 .978

.317 - .317 29 99 .926

 

 

Given, the Angels payroll is much larger then the White Sox is...but Maggs does deserve more then Anderson per year, but less then Vlad. That puts him in the $13-14 mill range, be it with the White Sox or the Dodgers or whomever.

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The reality of Moneyball:

 

Magglio Ordonez $14,000,000

Paul Konerko $8,000,000

Carlos Lee $6,500,000

Billy Koch $6,375,000

Frank Thomas $6,000,000

Jose Valentin $5,000,000

Esteban Loaiza $4,000,000

Mark Buehrle $3,500,000

Jon Garland $2,300,000

Scott Schoeneweis $1,725,000

Timo Perez $850,000

Cliff Politte $800,000

Kelly Wunsch $800,000

Shingo Takatsu $750,000

Sandy Alomar Jr. $700,000

Mike Jackson $500,000

Damaso Marte $500,000

Juan Uribe $350,000

Joe Crede $340,000

Aaron Rowand $340,000

Dan Wright $340,000

Miguel Olivo $320,000

Willie Harris $318,500

Ross Gload $302,000

Jon Adkins $301,000

Neal Cotts $301,000

Total Team Salary : 68,262,500

 

For those who b**** & moan about JR, the payroll is at 68 MIL & you've all read the reports that KW has a green light to take on salary for the stretch drive. That's pretty good for a team that has had little to no growth in attendance over the last 4 yrs.

 

With respect to Anderson, he's currently making 6.2 (6%) mil out of a 101 mil payroll for ANA. Vlad is making 11 mil (10%).

 

A better comparison for Moneyball is Jermaine Dye of the A's.

He's making 11.7 mil (20%). Why does Beane think he's worth that much?

#1 in TB in RON

#3 in TB in 7+

#1 in TB in 1-6 , 33% more than the #2

#1 in TB v Finesse, 33% more than the #2

#1 in TB v Power

 

Given the separation between Dye & the #2 on the A's for the majority of AB's

you can make the argument that he's worth 20% of the payroll. I think that's the key to Moneyball. How much of a separation is there between players on your team in terms of their production?

 

Using 2003 as a base for Maggs:

#2 in TB RON (151), Frank (157), Carlos (148)

#1 in TB in 7+ (102), Carlos (96), Frank (95)

#1 in TB in 1-6 (229), Carlos (215), Frank (212)

#2 in TB v Finesse (64), Frank(68), Crede(42)

#3 in TB v Power (155), Frank(158), Carlos(166)

 

Where as Dye separated himself from #2 by 33%, Maggs separation is only 5%.

For a player to rank #2 & #3 in the splits for Finesse & Power there is a strong suggestion that his #1 rankings are padded by blowouts where the SOX pile it on.

Those have no greater impact on winning % then the close games.

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The reality of Moneyball:

 

Magglio Ordonez  $14,000,000

Paul Konerko $8,000,000

Carlos Lee $6,500,000

Billy Koch $6,375,000

Frank Thomas $6,000,000

Jose Valentin $5,000,000

Esteban Loaiza $4,000,000

Mark Buehrle $3,500,000

Jon Garland $2,300,000

Scott Schoeneweis $1,725,000

Timo Perez $850,000

Cliff Politte $800,000

Kelly Wunsch $800,000

Shingo Takatsu $750,000

Sandy Alomar Jr. $700,000

Mike Jackson $500,000

Damaso Marte $500,000

Juan Uribe $350,000

Joe Crede $340,000

Aaron Rowand $340,000

Dan Wright $340,000

Miguel Olivo $320,000

Willie Harris $318,500

Ross Gload $302,000

Jon Adkins $301,000

Neal Cotts $301,000

Total Team Salary :  68,262,500

 

For those who b**** & moan about JR, the payroll is at 68 MIL & you've all read the reports that KW has a green light to take on salary for the stretch drive.  That's pretty good for a team that has had little to no growth in attendance over the last 4 yrs.

Uribe is a steal :o

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I think Moneyball is predicated on balancing two things:

A player's fair market value in a league vs A player's production on the team.

 

That's really not that far from common jobs:

A workers fair market value in an industry vs that worker's production to the company.

 

That's why Beane pays Dye 11.6 mil & why there is talk of a 2-3 yr contract extension.

 

On a team like the SOX where offensive production is much higher than the A's Maggs production on the team is less valuable to the SOX than Dye's production to the A's.

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Bf challenges whether KW should have signed Maggs to a 29.5/3 yr extension in 2001. That was the David Wells year & the SOX payroll was at 66 mil.

 

The first SOX offer was 26/4. Maggs rejected it.

The SOX were paying Maggs about 4 mil at the time.

Maggs in 2000 was ranked 23rd in the AL h in RPG (7.10).

Thomas was ranked 4th in RPG (9.41).

 

Maggs finished in 2001 with an RPG ranking of 11th in the AL (7.20).

Net improvement was: 1%.

In 2002 Maggs finished 6th in RPG (7.88). Net improvement: 2%

 

Maggs was eligible for UFA in 2003.

In 2003 Maggs finished 11th in RPG (7.34). Net decline: 7%

 

======================

 

Maggs played for 6.5 mil in 2002, 9 mil in 2003, & 14 mil in 2004.

Based on other arbitration awards in 2002 KW saved about 2 mil on that yr.

Now, consider that 2002 was the Todd-Ritchie year. It was obvious before the break that the SOX were going no where in that yr. So it was perfect time for a salary purge. Thomas had rebounded from his surgery by then & was looking like the Thomas of old. A perfect time for a salary purge & influx of new talent.

 

A perfect time to trade Maggs. What might KW have gotten for Maggs in 2002?

Just look back to the transactions of 2002 & there were several good players

that could have been had. Maggs trade value was probably his highest.

 

Now this isn't hindsight because we are talking about events that did happen

& timing that KW could have applied. The bottomline is that KW could have gotten the highest trade value out of Maggs in his best year (2002) & saved about 21 mil over 2003 & 2004.

 

The market depressed greatly over the 2002-2003 off-season, so 10 mil went along way. To suggest that KW did not know the market would depress that off-season is ridiculous. Beane knew & so did several other managers. Needless to say with an extra 10 MIL in spending money after 2002 the White Sox could have fielded a better team in 2003.

 

What's more is that they still would have had a chance to make a play for Maggs in FA after 2002.

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Bf challenges whether KW should have signed Maggs to a 29.5/3 yr extension in 2001.  That was the David Wells year & the SOX payroll was at 66 mil.

 

The first SOX offer was 26/4.  Maggs rejected it. 

The SOX were paying Maggs about 4 mil at the time. 

Maggs in 2000 was ranked 23rd in the AL h in RPG (7.10). 

Thomas was ranked 4th in RPG (9.41). 

 

Maggs finished in 2001 with an RPG ranking of 11th in the AL (7.20).

Net improvement was: 1%. 

In 2002 Maggs finished 6th in RPG (7.88).  Net improvement: 2%

 

Maggs was eligible for UFA in 2003.

In 2003 Maggs finished 11th in RPG (7.34).  Net decline: 7%

 

======================

 

Maggs played for 6.5 mil in 2002, 9 mil in 2003, & 14 mil in 2004.

Based on other arbitration awards in 2002 KW saved about 2 mil on that yr.

Now, consider that 2002 was the Todd-Ritchie year.  It was obvious before the break that the SOX were going no where in that yr.  So it was perfect time for a salary purge.  Thomas had rebounded from his surgery by then & was looking like the Thomas of old.  A perfect time for a salary purge & influx of new talent.

 

A perfect time to trade Maggs.  What might KW have gotten for Maggs in 2002?

Just look back to the transactions of 2002 & there were several good players

that could have been had.  Maggs trade value was probably his highest.

 

Now this isn't hindsight because we are talking about events that did happen

& timing that KW could have applied.  The bottomline is that KW could have gotten the highest trade value out of Maggs in his best year (2002) & saved about 21 mil over 2003 & 2004.  

 

The market depressed greatly over the 2002-2003 off-season, so 10 mil went along way.   To suggest that KW did not know the market would depress that off-season is ridiculous.  Beane knew & so did several other managers.   Needless to say with an extra 10 MIL in spending money after 2002 the White Sox could have fielded a better team in 2003.

 

What's more is that they still would have had a chance to make a play for Maggs in FA after 2002.

First of all, stop using RPG as some sort of be all end all, silver bullet of arguementation. The validity and reliability of this stat has been contested.

 

Secondly, this is classic hindsight 20/20 crap. On ESPN boards, you were one of great multitude of Sox homers who claimed Magglio was the "best RF in Chicago" in midst of 2002, that he was pound for pound "better than Sammy when he was 28yo"; generally there was little doubt Magglio would improve and become a star........So what the f*** are you blathering on now how it was "obvious" that KW should have traded him while his value was high? I do not believe you for a second if you try to claim that you "knew" Magglio would have a disappointing 2003 season after breaking out in 2002.

 

What part of Mondesi making 15, Jeter making 17, Appier making 13 and many, many other similar examples of contractual overvaluation do you not understand? How would a 27yo rising star, a future MVP (according to expert consensus which I am sure included the Sox brass) gonna only settle for 6 Mill per year - during period of salary escalation of 2001-2002 no less! - playing on a team like the Sox that was and still is fighting for fans and therefore could ill-afford to lose its most popular and promising player because of a small amount of money? After 2001-2002 failures, KW would be lynched if he got rid of Maggs.

 

Frank Thomas was "clearly back" in 2002? Huh? He had a 740 OPS in the first 4 months of 2002, his bat was slow as hell, his mechanics out of whack - nobody knew JACK s*** whether or not he would ever come close to 950 OPS levels. Ever. Hindsight 20/20 again....

 

Btw....Jermaine Dye is inferior to Maggs in every way, his clutch-hitting, whether it be with RISP or Close and Late are laughable since 2001 and he makes 12 Mill a year which is about 20% of Oakland's payroll. Beane dropped the ball on him big-time. Put the knee pads away.

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First of all, stop using RPG as some sort of be all end all, silver bullet of arguementation.    The validity and reliability of this stat has been contested.

The actual RPG value? Yes. It's use as a comparative tool? No.

It still remains the number one tool used by fantasy leagues.

 

As for the rest, the A's have discussed a contract extension for Dye. So apparently the fact that he's 33% better than the #2 on the team means something in Moneyball. It's pretty hard to find a player who can separate himself from the rest like that. Just imagine the numbers Dye could put up in the SOX lineup. If you don't think who's hitting before & after you make's a difference .. well :lol:

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Some more interesting Maggs stats:

2004: Home 922, Away 860

2003: Home 960, Away 895

2002: Home 1033, Away 924

2001: Home 830, Away 1000

2000: Home 1022, Away 813

 

It would seem to me that his superstar numbers have more to do with where he plays & who's in the lineup than superstar talent.

 

I find it most interesting that in the year of the extension he had only an 830 OPS at home. With such a huge dip it sure is interesting that's the year Thomas went down. :rolleyes:

 

Do those numbers spell 75/5? No. Not on this team. Not on most teams.

 

Now do I feel that in 2002 he was a better RF than Sosa? Abosolutely!

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http://www.miami.com/mld/kansascity/sports/8733899.htm

Regret festers, even almost three years after the Royals' most ill-fated trade of the last decade.

 

“I wanted to stay here,” Jermaine Dye says.

“It was a bad trade,” Allard Baird says.

 

Dye is still playing right field for the A's, producing like he did in 2000, when he hit .321 with 33 home runs and 118 RBIs for Kansas City.

 

2004: #1 Dye TB 126, 23% more than #2 Hatteburg (103)

 

Note: The A's have a 15 mil option on Dye for 2005.

With the recent signings by the A's this year it's doubtful they'll be able to afford that & will likely buy it out for 1.5 mil. Signing Dye as a FA to fill Maggs shoes certainly can't be ruled out. He's 30 as well.

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As for the rest, the A's have discussed a contract extension for Dye. So apparently the fact that he's 33% better than the #2 on the team means something in Moneyball. It's pretty hard to find a player who can separate himself from the rest like that. Just imagine the numbers Dye could put up in the SOX lineup.

 

Pure and unadulterated nonsense, on so many levels. Then again, it's right in line with your "Maggs is a 7 Mill a year player" malarkey.

 

f*** your Splits. Give me OPS, give me run-production, baserunning, etc.

Dye couldn't hold Magglio jock in 2001 or 2002 or 2003 or 2004 in any deparment, including defense which used to be Dye's strenght back in 1998-2000 before the injuries. You had the balls to mention clutch hitting....have you f***ing seen Dye's Close and Late and RISP/RO production as compared to Maggs in 2001-2004? Quit before you're behind.

 

Line-up protection? Dye had Giambi, Chavez, Tejada, Justice, Durazo and Jose Guillen at various points. Not too shabby. He was also playing on teams that had outstanding starting pitching and as everyone knows, psychologically it's easier to hit when your team only needs 3-4 runs to win a game. Duh.

 

What does % relative to the rest of the team have anything to do with anything? Dye is a 12 Mill a year player on a 60 Mill payroll team. Given his complete lack of leadership and clutch-hitting, it cannot be viewed as anything more than a botched signing by Beane that possibly robbed him of a WS ring.

 

Your worship of Billy Beane,and Moneyball is hysterical, and it spawn some weird-ass logic: "Because Billy Beane deemed it prudent to ____, it should be emulated by the rest of baseball"......Yeah, right. :bang

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2004-2005 might be the best FA pool of talent that KW has had available to him as GM. Some have been signed since his report but it's still a good one because it lists the ages. KW can easily get a solid arm & a solid bat for 15 mil from this list.

 

http://espn.go.com/gammons/s/2002/1127/1467898.html

Potential free agents at the end of the 2004 season

Kerry Wood, ChC, RHP, 28*

Matt Clement, ChC, RHP, 31*

Ryan Dempster, Cin., RHP, 28*

Odalis Perez, L.A., LHP, 27*

Javier Vazquez, Mon., RHP, 29*

Pedro Martinez, Bos., RHP, 34*

Derek Lowe, Bos., RHP, 31*

Curt Schilling, Ari., RHP, 38*

Matt Morris, St. L., RHP, 31*

Kris Benson, Pit., RHP, 30*

Russ Ortiz, S.F., RHP, 31*

Eric Milton, Min., LHP, 30*

Brad Radke, Min., RHP, 32*

Freddy Garcia, Sea., RHP, 29*

Scott Williamson, Cin., RHP, 29*

Bobby Howry, Bos., RHP, 32*

Jose Jimenez, Col., RHP, 32*

Braden Looper, Fla., RHP, 30*

Felix Rodriguez, S.F., RHP, 31*

Troy Percival, Ana., RHP, 36*

Robb Nen, S.F., RHP, 35*

Mariano Rivera, NYY, RHP, 35*

Jason Varitek, Bos., C, 33*

Paul Konerko, ChW, 1B, 29*

Derrek Lee, Fla., 1B, 30*

Richie Sexson, Mil., 1B, 30*

Carlos Delgado, Tor., 1B-DH, 32*

Jose Vidro, Mon., 2B, 31*

Mike Lowell, Fla., 3B, 31*

Corey Koskie, Min., 3B, 32*

Eric Chavez, Oak., 3B, 27*

Adrian Beltre, L.A., 3B, 26*

Aaron Boone, Cin., 3B, 32*

Troy Glaus, Ana., 3B, 28*

Cristian Guzman, Min., SS, 27*

Orlando Cabrera, Mon., SS, 30*

Nomar Garciaparra, Bos., SS, 32*

Trot Nixon, Bos., OF, 31*

Carlos Beltran, K.C., OF, 28*

J.D. Drew, St. L., OF, 29*

Magglio Ordonez, ChW, OF, 31*

Garret Anderson, Ana., OF, 33*

Geoff Jenkins, Mil., OF, 31*

* Opening Day age in 2005

 

A recent study of all hitters since 1980 showed a definite decline in power performance -- as measured simply by OPS -- after the age of 33.

 

Here is a more recent breakdown (Jan, 2004):

http://kmbumb.people.wm.edu/05agency.html

Based only on players currently under a contract through the 2004 season. x-club option for 2005; m-mutual option for 2005; y-player option for 2005.

 

ANAHEIM (5): Troy Glaus, 3b; Shane Halter, 3b; Raul Mondesi, of; Troy Percival, rhp; Aaron Sele, rhp.

 

BALTIMORE (7): Marty Cordova, of; Omar Daal, lhp; Mike DeJean, rhp; Luis Lopez, ss; x-Rafael Palmeiro, 1b; David Segui, 1b; B.J. Surhoff, of.

 

BOSTON (12): Ellis Burks, dh; x-Alan Embree, lhp; Nomar Garciaparra, ss; Derek Lowe, rhp; Pedro Martinez, rhp; Ramiro Mendoza, rhp; Kevin Millar, 1b; x-Bill Mueller, 3b; Pokey Reese, 2b; x-Mike Timlin, rhp; Jason Varitek, c; Scott Williamson, rhp.

 

NEW YORK (7): Miguel Cairo, ss; Tony Clark, 1b; John Flaherty, c; Orlando Hernandez, rhp; x-Travis Lee, 1b; x-Jon Lieber, rhp; Ruben Sierra, of.

 

SEATTLE (11): Rich Aurilia, ss; x-Bret Boone, 2b; Pat Borders, c; Freddy Garcia, rhp; m-Eddie Guardado, lhp; Dave Hansen, 1b; x-Edgar Martinez, dh; Mike Myers, lhp; John Olerud, 1b; Ron Villone, lhp; Dan Wilson, c.

 

TEXAS (10): Doug Brocail, rhp; David Dellucci, of; Brad Fullmer, 1b; m-Rusty Greer, of; Brian Jordan, of; Jeff Nelson, rhp; Herb Perry, 3b; Jay Powell, rhp; Eric Young, 2b; Jeff Zimmerman, rhp.

 

TORONTO (8): Terry Adams, rhp; Dave Berg, ss; Frank Catalanotto, of; Carlos Delgado, 1b; Chris Gomez, ss; Pat Hentgen, rhp; Greg Myers, c; Gregg Zaun, c.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

ARIZONA (10): Roberto Alomar, 2b; Carlos Baerga, 2b; Danny Bautista, of; Greg Colbrunn, 1b; x-Elmer Dessens, rhp; Steve Finley, of; Brent Mayne, c; Shane Reynolds, rhp; Richie Sexson, 1b; Steve Sparks, rhp.

 

CHICAGO (7): x-Sandy Alomar Jr, c; Mike Jackson, rhp; Billy Koch, rhp; Esteban Loaiza, rhp; Magglio Ordonez, of; x-Cliff Politte, rhp; Jose Valentin, ss.

 

CLEVELAND (5): Jeff D'Amico, rhp; Tim Laker, c; m-Omar Vizquel, ss; Rick White, rhp; Bob Wickman, rhp.

 

DETROIT (4): Alan Levine, rhp; Greg Norton, 3b; Danny Patterson, rhp; x-Ugueth Urbina, rhp.

 

KANSAS CITY (9): Kevin Appier, rhp; Carlos Beltran, of; m-Juan Gonzalez, of; Jason Grimsley, rhp; x-Curtis Leskanic, rhp; m-Joe Randa, 3b; Desi Relaford, ss; Matt Stairs, of; Kelly Stinnett, c.

 

MINNESOTA (6): x-Henry Blanco, c; x-Cristian Guzman, ss; Corey Koskie, 3b; Terry Mulholland, lhp; Jose Offerman, 1b; Brad Radke, rhp.

 

OAKLAND (4): Jermaine Dye, of; x-Chris Hammond, lhp; x-Eric Karros, 1b; Damian Miller, c.

 

TAMPA BAY (5): Brook Fordyce, c; John Halama, lhp; x-Tino Martinez, 1b; Trever Miller, lhp; Rey Sanchez, ss.

 

==========================================

 

LOS ANGELES (8): Wilson Alvarez, lhp; Adrian Beltre, 3b; Jose Hernandez, 3b; Todd Hundley, c; Jose Lima, rhp; Odalis Perez, lhp; Paul Shuey, rhp; Robin Ventura, 1b.

 

NEW YORK (9): Ricky Bottalico, rhp; Scott Erickson, rhp; John Franco, lhp; m-Al Leiter, lhp; x-Steve Trachsel, rhp; x-Mo Vaughn, 1b; David Weathers, rhp; Gerald Williams, of; Todd Zeile, 1b.

 

PHILADELPHIA (8): Rheal Cormier, lhp; Doug Glanville, of; Roberto Hernandez, rhp; Kevin Millwood, rhp; Eric Milton, lhp; Tomas Perez, ss; Todd Pratt, c; x-Billy Wagner, lhp.

 

ATLANTA (6): Antonio Alfonseca, rhp; J.D. Drew, of; Julio Franco, 1b; Eli Marrero, c; Russ Ortiz, rhp; x-John Smoltz, rhp.

 

CHICAGO (10): m-Moises Alou, of; Matt Clement, rhp; Alex Gonzalez, ss; Tom Goodwin, of; x-Mark Grudzielanek, 2b; Todd Hollandsworth, of; Kent Mercker, lhp; Rey Ordonez, ss; Glendon Rusch, lhp; Todd Walker, 2b.

 

COLORADO (9): m-Jeromy Burnitz, of; m-Vinny Castilla, 3b; Royce Clayton, ss; Shawn Estes, lhp; Jeff Fassero, lhp; Denny Hocking, ss; Steve Reed, rhp; Mark Sweeney, of; Turk Wendell, rhp.

 

HOUSTON (6): x-Craig Biggio, of; Roger Clemens, rhp; x-Richard Hidalgo, of; Jeff Kent, 2b; Dan Miceli, rhp; Jose Vizcaino, ss.

 

ST. LOUIS (8): Chris Carpenter, rhp; Cal Eldred, rhp; Steve Kline, lhp; Ray Lankford, of; Mike Matheny, c; Matt Morris, rhp; x-Woody Williams, rhp; Tony Womack, ss.

 

SAN DIEGO (7): x-Rod Beck, rhp; Sterling Hitchcock, lhp; x-Trevor Hoffman, rhp; Antonio Osuna, rhp; Ismael Valdes, rhp; David Wells, lhp; x-Jay Witasick, rhp.

 

SAN FRANCISCO (9): x-Jason Christiansen, lhp; Deivi Cruz, ss; x-Marquis Grissom, of; Dustin Hermanson, rhp; Robb Nen, rhp; Neifi Perez, ss; Felix Rodriguez, rhp; x-J.T. Snow, 1b; x-Brett Tomko, rhp.

 

CINCINNATI (5): Barry Larkin, ss; Todd Jones, rhp; Cory Lidle, rhp; Todd Van Poppel, rhp; John Vander Wal, of.

 

FLORIDA (7): Armando Benitez, rhp; Wil Cordero, of; Damion Easley, 2b; Chad Fox, rhp; Lenny Harris, 3b; Mike Mordecai, 2b; Darren Oliver, lhp.

 

MILWAUKEE (2): Dave Burba, rhp; x-Craig Counsell, ss.

 

MONTREAL (3): Orlando Cabrera, ss; Einar Diaz, c; y-Carl Everett, of.

 

PITTSBURGH (4): Kris Benson, rhp; x-Brian Boehringer, rhp; Jose Mesa, rhp; x-Chris Stynes, 3b.

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