When should the Sox start to panic?

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

This team has overachieved before the past 2 weeks, and it appears like we are seeing the real White Sox over the past 2 weeks, which is not a good sign. The starting pitching has been down right terrible with an ERA just under 8.00 in the last 2 weeks. The bullpen, with the exception of Takatsu, has been terrible with a 6.92 ERA(without Takatsu) over the past 2 weeks. The offense has been inconsistant, scoring 10+ runs 6 times in the last 2 weeks, and scoring 3 or fewer runs 4 times(possible 5 if this score continues) the last 2 weeks. Ozzie has made multiple mistakes, and at this point of the season he should be making this many mistakes. This team is at a crossroads. They are at least 2-3 good players away from being a legit contend, and they would have to morgage a lot of the minor league system to aquire those players(for the 2nd year in a row). Or they can continue with what they have and hope that some youngsters will develop(for once) and try and build for the future.

The bullpen is bad but the rest of the team is kick ass. Throwing up the white flag is not the answer by any stretch and shouldn't even be considered. We make a couple of moves to shore up our pitching staff and we'll be primed and ready for playoff contention.

[Soxfest]

Its not time to panic but they also cannot go 2-5 on this homestand either......it is nut cutting time.

[Yoda]

And when the f*** does KW expect to get Garcia? Seriously, this f***ing guy talked about getting him soon. Once he said that other teams got all hyped about getting the same guy. Now the Yankees have been talking. Yes, they may not have the right guys Seattle needs, but we all know how rich they are.

 

Now be honest, who is 100% sure KW will get Garcia before July 31st?

[whitesox61382]

The funniest part of all is that they probably knew Wright was f***ed up - hell fans knew that a YEAR ago and they still trotted him (and Stewart, Cotts and Porzio) out there in 2003 and 2004 just so they could save a couple of Mill.........Ok, so Sox narrowly missed the playoffs because of it, balablabla.........What do they do in 2004?  Same thing. Fanatical determination to do everything the cheapest way.     

 

In the process they completely devalued Diaz, Munoz and Rauch - who will give you Garcia for them now as opposed to 4 weeks ago when all of them had decent value?   

 

No 5th stater AND no ace.  No BP help either.    Instead of going on big streaks like a well-balancved playoff team playing in a s***ty division should, Sox are only 4 games over .500. The f***.

Brando, how is that Clement and Patterson for Maggs and Wunsch trade looking now? This team has shown that they can survive without Maggs in the lineup(averaging 5.86 runs scored since he went on the DL), and Patterson is an improvement over the current trio holding down the spot. Did I not tell you that Patterson was due for a hot stretch and that he could have a big 2nd half? He has seen his numbers improve drasticly over the past couple of weeks(.246 BA .700 OPS to .267 BA .761 OPS). He has 23 extra base hits, 9/12 in SB, improved plate disipline, and has played some great D(multiple web gem catches over the past couple of weeks). Imagine if the Sox were throwing out Clement and his 3.07 ERA every 5th start. This team would have AT LEAST 5 more wins with Clement in the 5th hole instead of the current 5th starters. Clement has shown that he is MUCH MORE VALUABLE THAN Maggs, especially since the Sox offense hasn't suffered without Maggs and we know how drastic an improvement that Clement would be over the 5th starters. Factor in that Maggs is probably gone after this year, and that deal is pretty one-sided.

 

Yansy

 

1) I was talking about the teams play as a whole(over the entire season). In other words, an inconsistant team that struggles to be above .500. Thats what most experts/analysist thought was likely this offseason and it appears to be a reality. Hence, the "real" Sox.

 

2) Manuel was a poor manager...no questions asked. To think otherwise is just plain stupid. A fair way to judge a manager is to accurately judge the talent of a roster and determine if they are underachieving(or overachieving). The true sign of a good manager is to get the most out of the talent on the roster. The past two years the Sox should have won the division(according to the stats), but other factors(ie poor managing) cost the Sox. The amount of mistakes that Manuel made over the course of a season was amazing. Factor in that he never motivated this team and this team appeared to be going throw the motions, but nothing more. Not only that, but the Sox always seemed to finish the year on a good note and pad the record after they were out of contention. Only an idiot would think that Manuel was anything but a good manager.

 

Thank You

[BrandoFan]

I am not sure what this has to do with a 5th starter. Since it's

0-8 with a gazzillion ERA this year, Mike Sirotka's scar tissue could be an improvement, let alone a good pitcher like Matt Clement.

 

Brando, how is that Clement and Patterson for Maggs and Wunsch trade looking now?

 

Same as it looked 3 weeks ago, except Wunsch is on DL now - which you mentioned nothing about then, so you get no points for it.

 

Maggs will be back in a week. My Dear Clementine will pitch as he pitched throughout his career - possibly good enough for low- 4.00 ERA in AL - which would make him slightly better than Judy - if he is even pitching at all, that is, I have him on DL before 2005. He'll go trough his typical phase where his fastball doesn't hit over 92 (Oakland game on WGN? He didn't above 93 once and was mostly 90-92) and hangs a hell out of his slider. That ERA will SOAR.

 

But hey, keep on watching, we'll settle this at the end of the year - 3.75 NL ERA/4.15 AL ERA thing, remember? As we will Perez trade and other things.

 

and Patterson is an improvement over the current trio holding down the spot.

 

Except not really. I'll take Rowand over Patterson, both offensively AND defensively. 760 OPS is as high as Corey will go. Stay tuned.

[whitesox61382]

I am not sure what this has to do with a 5th starter.  Since it's

0-8 with a gazzillion ERA this year, Mike Sirotka's scar tissue could be an improvement, let alone a good pitcher like Matt Clement. 

 

 

 

Same as it looked 3 weeks ago, except Wunsch is on DL now - which you mentioned nothing about then, so you get no points for it.

 

Maggs will be back in a week.  My Dear Clementine will pitch as he pitched throughout his career - possibly good enough for low- 4.00 ERA in AL - which would make him slightly better than Judy - if he is even pitching at all, that is, I have him on DL before 2005.    He'll go trough his typical phase where his fastball doesn't hit over 92 (Oakland game on WGN?  He didn't above 93 once and was mostly 90-92) and hangs a hell out of his slider.    That ERA will SOAR.       

 

But hey, keep on watching, we'll settle this at the end of the year - 3.75 NL ERA/4.15 AL ERA thing,  remember?  As we will Perez trade and other things. 

 

 

 

Except not really. I'll take Rowand over Patterson, both offensively AND defensively.    760 OPS is as high as Corey will go. Stay tuned.

Brando, you entire Clement arguement is based on speculation and has no facts/stats to back it up. That makes for an extremely weak arguement on your behalf. Clement has been very consistant and very good over the past 2+ years(500.1 IP = very large sample size) with an ERA of 3.70. That translates to an ERA in the 3.90-4.00 range in the AL, which is the about the ERA of a "playoff calibur" #2 starter(as I showed in a previous post). More importantly, it is a DRASTIC improvement over the production that the Sox have gotten from the 5th starter. The Sox have shown that they can live without Maggs bat in the lineup, so the difference between Clement and the 5th starter makes this a trade that drasticly improves this team. He is not injury prone, so will you quit with that BS? There is absolutely nothing to support your injury prediction, which is why your arguement is very weak(as always).

 

I am a Rowand fan, and believe that he deserves more PT, but the fact of the matter is that Rowand can't consistantly hit righties. His overall stats are good, because Ozzie has hidden this flaw. If Rowand played everyday, like Patterson, than his numbers would take a SEVERE hit. At this point I would say that they are even offensively, but Patterson has the long-term advantage since he is younger and a lefty. Defensively, Rowand certainly has a better arm, but Patterson has better range, so I would call it a draw. I think it is fair to say that they are even, but Patterson's long-term prospects are better. Keep hoping that Patterson doesn't prove you wrong. You said he wouldn't top the mid .700 OPS range when he was slumping. Now he has gotten to that range and you have raised it to not toping the .760 range. What happens when his OPS reaches the .800 range? He has proven you wrong so far, and a strong finish is likely. You are on thin ice in this arguement and have really put yourself on a limb by saying that he won't top the .760 range.

 

Simple put, this trade would improve the Sox both in the short-term and long-term. To bad that it isn't a realistic trade and that the Cubs would be crazy to do such a deal.

[Hatchetman]

Where's the panic button? I can't find the GODDAM PANIC BUTTON! f***!! AHHHHH!

[BrandoFan]

Brando, you entire Clement arguement is based on speculation and has no facts/stats to back it up. That makes for an extremely weak arguement on your behalf. Clement has been very consistant and very good over the past 2+ years(500.1 IP = very large sample size) with an ERA of 3.70. That translates to an ERA in the 3.90-4.00 range in the AL, which is the about the ERA of a "playoff calibur" #2 starter(as I showed in a previous post). More importantly, it is a DRASTIC improvement over the production that the Sox have gotten from the 5th starter. The Sox have shown that they can live without Maggs bat in the lineup, so the difference between Clement and the 5th starter makes this a trade that drasticly improves this team. He is not injury prone, so will you quit with that BS? There is absolutely nothing to support your injury prediction, which is why your arguement is very weak(as always).

 

I am a Rowand fan, and believe that he deserves more PT, but the fact of the matter is that Rowand can't consistantly hit righties. His overall stats are good, because Ozzie has hidden this flaw. If Rowand played everyday, like Patterson, than his numbers would take a SEVERE hit. At this point I would say that they are even offensively, but Patterson has the long-term advantage since he is younger and a lefty. Defensively, Rowand certainly has a better arm, but Patterson has better range, so I would call it a draw. I think it is fair to say that they are even, but Patterson's long-term prospects are better. Keep hoping that Patterson doesn't prove you wrong. You said he wouldn't top the mid .700 OPS range when he was slumping. Now he has gotten to that range and you have raised it to not toping the .760 range. What happens when his OPS reaches the .800 range? He has proven you wrong so far, and a strong finish is likely. You are on thin ice in this arguement and have really put yourself on a limb by saying that he won't top the .760 range.

 

Simple put, this trade would improve the Sox both in the short-term and long-term. To bad that it isn't a realistic trade and that the Cubs would be crazy to do such a deal.

 

We'll see how our predictions for Matt Clement turn out in about 3 months. He was 5-1 and now he's 7-5 - and the Annual Clement Swoon hasn't even commenced yet. You seem to disagree. Oh well, time will tell.

 

If Cubs want to trade Clement for Rauch and Munoz, then by all means. Maggs to Cubs? No way.

 

As far as Patterson having more range than Rowand, going by 2003 and 2004 data (from UZR, Pinto's PMR to your basic defensive Win Shares) but most importantly PERSONAL experience of watching the two play, that is simply not the case. Hell, even the generic Zone Rating for both 2003 and 2004 (869 and 870 for Corey and 960 and 911 for Aaron) places Rowand above Patterson - and A-Row's advantage in arm strenght is obvious, which not only shows up in assists but also deters some runners from even trying to advance - whereas just about everybody runs on Patterson.

 

People get fooled by Patterson's short and quick little legs and assume he must have an enormous range because he looks so fast......Well, Hunter, Wells and Beltran, let alone Kotsay and Edmonds, are all slower than Patterson and yet they are better overall defensive CF. Willie Harris is nother speedy guy who can't play CF. Funny how that works. Just as good batspeed doesn't help a hitter who can't pick up the ball early and who has a big strike-zone, same way blazing speed in CF won't help the likes of Patterson for their rather pedestrian reads, jumps, routes, technique and decision-making - all of which come into play on non-routine plays where margin for error is very small.

 

What happens once his OPS goes over .800? I don't know - it's not going there.

[whitesox61382]

Brando...when will you learn that an arguement that isn't supported by facts/stats against an arguement that is supported by facts/stats makes your arguement much weaker.

 

For starters, you lie about making that prediction when he was 5-1, because the article that started this whole arguement came out well after May 6th(the day in which Clement was 5-1). Nice try, but please don't lie in a pathetic attempt to make a weak point. You simple looked a Clement's stats and found the point when he peaked and said that was the date you made your prediction hoping that no one would call your bluff. The only thing worse than not supporting your arguement with facts/stats is lying to try and make a point. I really hope that you are not a lawyer.

 

Secondly, don't play dumb and believe that wins are a good way to judge a pitchers affectiveness. We both know that wins are determined by the TEAMS play in which the starting pitcher is a part of.

 

Finally, Clement hasn't fallen off. In fact he has been very consistant and IMPROVED in the month of June. His 2.22 ERA in April was going to go up some no matter what(almost no starter in todays game keeps an ERA in the low 2's for an entire season). He had a solid month of May with an ERA of 3.54, and improved that in June with an ERA of 3.14. So I ask, where is this fall off that you predicted? Answer...he hasn't occured. Nice try though keep wishing, because that is the only way that you speculation is going to occur.

 

Defensive stats(with the exception of errors) are about as worthless as a record player. Zone and range stats are simple ignored by baseball expert/analysist/scouts, so please don't use them to prove a point because they hold no water. You think Rowand has more range, but I think that Patterson has more range. Here is an unbias piece from Patterson's ESPN profile:

 

"He shows good range and a strong throwing arm in center field, and with more experience he might become one of the game's best defensive center fielders."

 

Patterson is a very good defensive CF whether your blind ass wants to admit it or not. Have you not watched any of the games or baseball tonight over the past month? They guy has made at least one great catch a day it seems and is a regular on web gems. Saying that Patterson appears fast because he has short legs that he moves fast might be the stupidest thing I have ever heard in a good month. Not only is that not true, but that is like saying Edmonds doesn't have good range because he has to dive for balls that other CF don't have too. It simple holds no water(like everything else that you say).

 

His OPS was well above .800 last year and is rising as we speak. I know that you a sweating underneath hoping that you don't get proven wrong yet again(it is becoming common for you...maybe you just aren't a good judge of talent).

 

In the end, the facts are that the Sox offense is scoring at a similar rate with Maggs in the lineup and out of the lineup(the pitching is to blame for the struggles of late). If the Sox could win just half of the 5th starter(EXTREMELY likely if you replaced the 5th starter with Clement), than this team would be easily in 1st. It is as clear as night and day that this trade would improve the Sox now and in the future, but for some reason all you see is gray.

[BrandoFan]

You're right - the prediction was made when he was 6-3 with a mid-2.00 ERA - I just checked that thread from May 25th.

 

The problem? I've been calling on Clement to fall since his crappy 2004 ST at least, and that included the period when he was 4-1 as I tend to stick to my pre-season predictions. It's wasn't a lie you dink - I was simply thinking of another thread or another arguement concerning the Goateed Wonder circa April-May when he really was 5-1 and people were nominating him for Cy Young.

My mistake. But whatever - that really doesn't alter the 3.75+ ERA prediction from the Jimmy Greenfield Article thread in the least. Let's see where Clementine is at the END of the year, shall we? Come to think of it, what WAS your pre-season prediction again?

 

You don't believe in supplemental use of advanced defensive metrics, and would rather use ESPN "scout" (the same hack who claimed, among other hilarious things, that Konerko had a "slider-speed" bat a couple of years back when he was one of the best fastball hitters in AL) as gospel? That's YOUR problem.

 

"....With the exception of errors"? Are you for real? I guess Beltran is worse than Garret Anderson, then - what with 3 errors and all.

 

And you know what's funny? That imbecil you quoted said Patterson has a "strong" throwing arm -- that's where his credibility and your naivette are betrayed more than ever..... Blind? Heal thyself, physician.

 

"Web gem" catches? Carlos Lee makes "spectacular" catches in almost every game - is he a "very good" defensive player? You don't pay attention to jumps, routes and all that other (important if unquantifiable) stuff that that ultimately separates Kotsay, Edmonds, Hunter, Beltran from speedsters like Sanchez, Patterson and Crawford.

 

And where did I say Patterson isn't fast? Reading is a skill - just as the case with Pierre and Harris, Patterson's speed doesn't automatically create for a great range. Rowand is simply a better defensive CF. But hey, you were the guy who said Timo Perez is a "very good" defensive CF'er on ESPN boards when he was first acquired, weren't you? But hey, here's what your favorite omniscient ESPN Scout says about one of the worst defensive CF'er in AL:

 

"Baserunning & Defense

Perez is the Mets' best all-around defensive outfielder. He owns above-average arm strength and good accuracy, enabling him to accumulate six outfield assists last year-second-best on the team. He plays one of the more shallow center fields in the game because of his speed and ability to read balls off the bat."

 

 

Sweating and waiting for Patterson OPS to drop? Don't project, beefster.

 

And what's with all that rhetorical noise coming from your moniker, flathead? Take a deep breath maggsformayor, the day you're a better judge of talent is the day I take a walk down Mishima Avenue. Your hack "uncle" impresses noone.

[Wedge]

And where did I say Patterson isn't fast?  Reading is a skill - just as the case with Pierre and Harris, Patterson's speed doesn't automatically create for a great range. Rowand is simply a better defensive CF.    But hey, you were the guy who said Timo Perez is a "very good" defensive CF'er on ESPN boards, weren't you?   

I would go as far to say that Rowand is the best defensive outfielder in Chicago. Great range, arm, and field awareness. If only he could hit righties if only for average, then he would be awesome.

[EvilJester99]

To change this arguement for a bit. I think the Sox fans shouldn't panic juct yet. This week could be good fo the Sox. If the Sox can take the next 3 from the Indians the Sox will push them back to 5 games behind them and the Twins are playing the Red Sox and should lose 2 of 3 to them and the Sox could get back into 1st place by the time the Scrubs come a calling. Hopefully the Sox can get it together.

[Wedge]

To change this arguement for a bit. I think the Sox fans shouldn't panic juct yet. This week could be good fo the Sox. If the Sox can take the next 3 from the Indians the Sox will push them back to 5 games behind them and the Twins are playing the Red Sox and should lose 2 of 3 to them and the Sox could get back into 1st place by the time the Scrubs come a calling. Hopefully the Sox can get it together.

It all starts tonight. No excuse for losing tonight. Hopefully Lee's appeal fails and Buerhle pitches against a nobody. Finally, I hope Rauch improves from his last outing.

[EvilJester99]

Actually I believe Loaiza is pitching tonight.

[Wedge]

Actually I believe Loiaza is pitching tonight. Isn't he?

yessir!

[BainesRules]

It's too early to panic, but it's not too early to analyze the current roster. With the weak competition in the Central, the Sox have enough to win the division (which they will need to do, because there are too many other tough squads to think about the Wild Card). However, with no dominant starters, and only two reliable ones, the Sox have no chance in the postseason.

 

As a newbie, I know I will get trashed for this, but if at all possible, we need to trade Maggs for two quality starting pitchers. This will shore up the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation, and then we can kick Shoey back to the bullpen, where he belongs. And the bottom line is, we don't need Maggs. The offense is one of the best in baseball without him, and I don't know where all of this "Maggs is our best hitter, he's a superstar" talk came from. He is a very good player. He is not a superstar. When he can put up Vlad numbers, or Manny Ramirez numbers, or even Frank numbers, then we can talk. But if he hasn't been able to make that leap to the next level yet, I don't think he's ever going to, and his trade value can bring this team what it needs, and that is starting pitching!

[EvilJester99]

Welcome to the boards Baines!!

[Wedge]

Welcome aboard.

 

I think most people here agree with you, actually. If Magglio can get converted into even 1 good starter and some prospects, I think everybody on the board would be pretty happy.

[EvilJester99]

As a newbie, I know I will get trashed for this, but if at all possible, we need to trade Maggs for two quality starting pitchers. This will shore up the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation, and then we can kick Shoey back to the bullpen, where he belongs. And the bottom line is, we don't need Maggs. The offense is one of the best in baseball without him, and I don't know where all of this "Maggs is our best hitter, he's a superstar" talk came from. He is a very good player. He is not a superstar. When he can put up Vlad numbers, or Manny Ramirez numbers, or even Frank numbers, then we can talk. But if he hasn't been able to make that leap to the next level yet, I don't think he's ever going to, and his trade value can bring this team what it needs, and that is starting pitching!

 

 

I agree completely with this. Maggs is a very good player but we have so many more important needs than him, esp seeing he will be gone anyway. Why not use him to get some much needed pitching. As said b4, good pitching beats good hitting.