Constant trade rumors post garcia trade

[Guest JimH]

There's a prevailing school of thought that the price went up for Garcia, that somehow the Sox could've had him cheaper a month ago. I couldn't disagree more.

 

The Mariners weren't ready to trade him, certainly not in May when their fan base would've skewered them for bailing on the season. After it became obvious there was little chance for them to contend, he went on the market ... they named their price, and three teams were mentioned as being in the bidding - White Sox, Dodgers, Yankees. All of whom, as SSI point out, had young catching talent.

 

The reluctance in this whole equation was two-fold: Seattle reluctant to trade him earlier, which was validated by multiple reports and the obvious fact he didn't get moved until yesterday. Second, the White Sox's willingness to add Reed. The Yankees got last crack at this, and they couldn't match the AAA/AA prospects. A young catcher was a given, seeing as Seattle has been talking about adding young catching for 6 months. If Garcia wasn't traded to the Sox yesterday, I'd be he'd be in Yankee pinstripes as we speak. This was a bidding war, Seattle held firm to their price, that was their price all along once they decided to trade him.

 

Now, as for what happens at this point ...

 

The Sox want to add guys. Where are the weak spots on this team, where can you look and say "the guy at that position is clearly not playoff ready". Emphasis on "clearly". Granted, most of these guys have never been in the playoffs.

 

But if you look at this team, and factor in what ingredients win championships, it leads you to pitching (of course), 2B, and CF. Forget about Maggs - if you are a team going for it, tell me seriously you're willing to trade a bat like that. No, you want to ADD a bat.

 

And this is where Andruw Jones comes in. Fregosi was scouting the Sox, Braves want to cut payroll, guess whose start he watched last week ... Jon Rauch. Guess who else played, and is young/cheap ... Aaron Rowand. Other possibilities? Crede, Harris, Marte, Cotts.

 

Take a look at Atlanta's bullpen and see if there is an expensive guy or two who they might want to trade. Or even an inexpensive guy, like Jason said, Cruz.

 

Braves get rid of Andruw Jones and maybe another big contract, possibly helping the White Sox with this years $$$ so they can get a good prospect or two. They want outfielders and pitching, and a 3B. I doubt KW moves Crede, but it's not beyond the realm of possibility. Same with Marte. Atlanta doesn't need a 2B but remember Harris can play CF too and is a Georgia native, Braves like those homegrown guys.

 

If I were a betting man, I'd say if something happened with the Braves, it would play out like this: Andruw Jones and bullpen arm to Sox, one young regular and two prospects to Braves. At least one of the prospects a pitcher, maybe both. Stud prospect? I'm afraid so, unless Atlanta is REALLY desperate to get out from under Jones contract, and wants him out of the National League.

 

Don't be surprised to see at least one of Cotts/Rowand/Harris get moved, along with a prospect you won't be happy about losing.

 

As for catching, I've thought about it and I don't see a move. Davis has upside, and playoff experience. Alomar is a given, and Ozzie loves Burke's versatility. Seattle's staff liked Davis, he is not a bad catcher at all.

 

So that's my .02 and then some on how I see this whole situation unfolding.

[Chisoxfn]

Some things to think about here.

 

1.  Why would Atlanta want Ordonez, and why would the Sox trade him?  They're going for it, I highly doubt they trade arguably their best player.

 

2.  I don't doubt the validity of Andruw Jones coming to the Sox.  Can you say prospects and maybe one guy off the roster?  They really want to get rid of his contract.

 

3.  If Jones comes to the Sox, he is a similar bat to Ordonez, with the likelihood Ordonez leaves after this year.

 

4.  Why would Atlanta consider trading Estrada?  He is what they want, young and cheap.

 

Prediction:

 

Maggs stays.  Andruw Jones to the Sox, maybe.  We are in an addition mode, not subtraction.  Who do the Sox have that is young/cheap?  Prospects.  Plus guys like Rowand (who has trade value and can play three OF positions, attractive to Atlanta), Harris, Crede, Marte, Rauch, Diaz, Uribe.

 

Not saying those are the guys who will be going anywhere, but don't be surprised if it's at least one of them, plus prospects.

 

If the team goes deep into the playoffs, or even makes the playoffs, they will make a windfall of $$$.  Not a lot of risk to the Sox to pick up Andruw Jones and keep Maggs, just their salaries this year, and they might get the Braves to pick the rest of this year up.

 

Think about it people.  Sox are going for it.  Braves want to shed payroll, $20M by next year if what I read is correct.

 

If Jones comes to the Sox, IMO, it will not be for Maggs.

 

End of rant.

This would be a deal for the Braves to move payroll. They get rid of a long term deal and then hold onto Maggs for a short time while trying to broker him elsewhere for prospects (Something they woudln't get for Jones).

 

They also give up a starting pitcher, but will be getting a pitching prospect in return and once again cutting immediate payroll. However, to give up Estrada would be tough unless they got something else they liked in return, like Aaron Rowand or Joe Borchard or in my opinion Neal Cotts. The Sox would also get Juan Cruz in the deal.

 

I think you cuold see something like this:

 

Maggs/Rauch or Diaz/Cotts and probably one other player for Andruw Jones/Russ Ortiz/Johnny Estrada/Juan Cruz.

 

This deal gives the Sox 3 playesr that will be here for a few years and a good starting pither that will likely leave for draft choices at the end of the year. However, after making the two deals the Sox are stronger behind the plate, in centerfield, way stronger in the rotation and stronger in the bullpen (with Scho replacing Cotts in the pen and Cruz coming in replacing Jackson). They are weaker in right.

 

They are also better off in the long run as they now have one hole position wise next year and thats RF while you still have a few risks with losing some FA pitchers, but have some options too.

 

And Hell yes, I would do this deal, even if it meant both Diaz and Rauch were a part of the deal. This would be a great deal cause it help the Sox now and later.

 

Now that I've given ya the Sox logic for this deal, let me give you the Braves logic.

 

Andruw Jones has an immovable contract as some would say, at least when it comes to getting prospects. SO they end up giving up a player they like in Johnny Estrada to get it to go and the Sox know the Braves want to cut payroll so they get ORtiz. Since the Sox are taking on so much payroll they want at least one semi promising pitcher and thats Juan Cruz. The Braves now get Neal Cotts (he'll go into their rotation), Maggs (will be shipped off for prospects...he can be moved adn the Braves will do this probably for 2 TOP prospects and another very good prospects...ie Beltran deal) and then Rauch/Diaz plus another prospect. This nets them Cotts (very good prospect, two top prospects, a good prospect and then Rauch/Diaz and whoever else the Sox give up, plus cuts payroll. That make enough sense from the Braves perspective.

 

And with Smoltz also on the block, the Braves are potentially waving the white flag.

[Guest JimH]

Jason, good analysis. Let me ask you a simple question though, why would the White Sox move Ordonez since they are clearly "going for it"?

 

If he gets them to the playoffs and beyond, that fattens the coffers.

 

If he doesn't, they can say they went for it, and they don't sign him. Then they plug in Borchard next year.

 

If you are a team with World Series aspirations, you'd trade Magglio Ordonez?

That creates quite the little stormcloud with your clubhouse chemistry too, no?

[WHarris1]

Maggs/Rauch or Diaz/Cotts and probably one other player for Andruw Jones/Russ Ortiz/Johnny Estrada/Juan Cruz.

Damn, that would be a huge deal.

 

I think I would like it...

 

That's a lot of pitching prospects.

But if we are going for it now, then hell go for it...

[southsideirish]

There's a prevailing school of thought that the price went up for Garcia, that somehow the Sox could've had him cheaper a month ago.  I couldn't disagree more.

 

The Mariners weren't ready to trade him, certainly not in May when their fan base would've skewered them for bailing on the season.  After it became obvious there was little chance for them to contend, he went on the market ... they named their price, and three teams were mentioned as being in the bidding - White Sox, Dodgers, Yankees.  All of whom, as SSI point out, had young catching talent.

 

The reluctance in this whole equation was two-fold:  Seattle reluctant to trade him earlier, which was validated by multiple reports and the obvious fact he didn't get moved until yesterday.  Second, the White Sox's willingness to add Reed.  The Yankees got last crack at this, and they couldn't match the AAA/AA prospects.  A young catcher was a given, seeing as Seattle has been talking about adding young catching for 6 months.  If Garcia wasn't traded to the Sox yesterday, I'd be he'd be in Yankee pinstripes as we speak.  This was a bidding war, Seattle held firm to their price, that was their price all along once they decided to trade him.

 

Now, as for what happens at this point ...

 

The Sox want to add guys.  Where are the weak spots on this team, where can you look and say "the guy at that position is clearly not playoff ready".  Emphasis on "clearly".  Granted, most of these guys have never been in the playoffs.

 

But if you look at this team, and factor in what ingredients win championships, it leads you to pitching (of course), 2B, and CF.  Forget about Maggs - if you are a team going for it, tell me seriously you're willing to trade a bat like that.  No, you want to ADD a bat.

 

And this is where Andruw Jones comes in.  Fregosi was scouting the Sox, Braves want to cut payroll, guess whose start he watched last week ... Jon Rauch.  Guess who else played, and is young/cheap ... Aaron Rowand.  Other possibilities?  Crede, Harris, Marte, Cotts.

 

Take a look at Atlanta's bullpen and see if there is an expensive guy or two who they might want to trade.  Or even an inexpensive guy, like Jason said, Cruz.

 

Braves get rid of Andruw Jones and maybe another big contract, possibly helping the White Sox with this years $$$ so they can get a good prospect or two.  They want outfielders and pitching, and a 3B.  I doubt KW moves Crede, but it's not beyond the realm of possibility. Same with Marte.  Atlanta doesn't need a 2B but remember Harris can play CF too and is a Georgia native, Braves like those homegrown guys.

 

If I were a betting man, I'd say if something happened with the Braves, it would play out like this:  Andruw Jones and bullpen arm to Sox, one young regular and two prospects to Braves.  At least one of the prospects a pitcher, maybe both.  Stud prospect?  I'm afraid so, unless Atlanta is REALLY desperate to get out from under Jones contract, and wants him out of the National League.

 

Don't be surprised to see at least one of Cotts/Rowand/Harris get moved, along with a prospect you won't be happy about losing.

 

As for catching, I've thought about it and I don't see a move.  Davis has upside, and playoff experience.  Alomar is a given, and Ozzie loves Burke's versatility.  Seattle's staff liked Davis, he is not a bad catcher at all.

 

So that's my .02 and then some on how I see this whole situation unfolding.

I couldn't agree more and I see a deal of Rowand/Rauch/Davis going to the Braves for Jones/Estrada and I don't see a bullpen guy with the Braves making much money at all besides John Smoltz and I know we are not getting him. The next highest paid guy is Alfonseca and he is just at about a mil and a half. Not much a dump there.

[Chisoxfn]

Jason, good analysis.  Let me ask you a simple question though, why would the White Sox move Ordonez since they are clearly "going for it"?

 

If he gets them to the playoffs and beyond, that fattens the coffers.

 

If he doesn't, they can say they went for it, and they don't sign him.  Then they plug in Borchard next year.

 

If you are a team with World Series aspirations, you'd trade Magglio Ordonez?

That creates quite the little stormcloud with your clubhouse chemistry too, no?

I'd do it because Jones is not much of a downgrade over Maggs and frankly you need to at least know you have something next year. With what the other playesr bring, it makes the deal worth it.

 

To me the Sox are a better team at the end of the day. The offense probably is as good with Jones/Estrada as it was with Maggs/Olivo. Pitching wise you lose Cotts (this I'd try not to do) while gaining Ortiz and Juan Cruz.

 

Rauch or Diaz, one of which will stay with Chicago so next year Cruz and the other can fight for one of the pitching slots, although I fimrly believe at the end of the year the Sox can sign 2 of the three pitchers (Garcia, Elo, Ortiz). The new pen has Scho and Cruz over Cotts and Jackson, which is at least a bit better.

 

I'd be even more happy if it could be done without Cotts but instead Rauch and Diaz, but you gotta give something to get something and this is a pretty huge ass deal so to me I'd be shocked as hell if something like this went down.

 

Also now that I think of it, Ben Davis would obviously be a part of the deal.

[Guest JimH]

Jason, if you're "going for it" ... and I know you don't agree with this type of thought, but next year be damned.

 

I mean, really.

 

You have Borchard who could be plugged in rather easily. If not, it's not that tough to find a corner OF.

 

The Sox are looking to add, not subtract. It makes zero sense that they're looking to trade Ordonez. If they wanted to flip him for prospects, they could do that themselves, they don't need Atlanta to broker it.

 

Davis "could" go in a deal, but only if they get another catcher. I just do not see the Braves moving Estrada, why would they? The White Sox do not have the Braves over a barrel with an asset the Braves are salivating over, i.e. the Garcia situation.

 

If the Sox got Jason Kendall (as an example) in a salary dump move by the Pirates, then yeah, Davis would be moved.

[Chisoxfn]

No, when I say flip him for prospects, I mean the Braves would be flipping Maggs for prospects, not the Sox.

 

The Sox do this deal because it makes them better, bottomline. I realize trading your star isn't necessarily the big thing to do, but this makes the Sox much better, and anything that makes the club better now only now but in the future, I make, stardom be damn.

 

I also think Sox fans would rally and learn to love Andruw Jones and the type of defense he plays and I'm convinced he'll hit 50 Hr's for the Sox in a season while he's under contract. To me its a no brainer if its on the table.

[southsideirish]

Jason, if you're "going for it" ... and I know you don't agree with this type of thought, but next year be damned.

 

I mean, really.

 

You have Borchard who could be plugged in rather easily.  If not, it's not that tough to find a corner OF.

 

The Sox are looking to add, not subtract.  It makes zero sense that they're looking to trade Ordonez.  If they wanted to flip him for prospects, they could do that themselves, they don't need Atlanta to broker it.

 

Davis "could" go in a deal, but only if they get another catcher.  I just do not see the Braves moving Estrada, why would they?  The White Sox do not have the Braves over a barrel with an asset the Braves are salivating over, i.e. the Garcia situation.

 

If the Sox got Jason Kendall (as an example) in a salary dump move by the Pirates, then yeah, Davis would be moved.

I agree with you. I doubt the Sox move Maggs. There is just no way to explain moving Maggs when you are "going for it." That really doesn't make sense.

 

The only reason they move Estrada is if they are so desperate to move payroll. In this way they can get rid of 2 huge salaries in Ortiz and Jones. If they MUST include a 28 year old catcher who is having his first good year, well then so be it. If that is what it takes to move all that payroll and be able to get good young players in return such as Rauch/Diaz/Rowand/Davis then that is what they will do. If they don't want to decrease their payroll that badly then they won't include him and I don't think a deal will get done.

[Chisoxfn]

I should add, I want more pitching, I could give a damn about hitting, the Sox offense is good, but the pitching staff and pen could still use upgrades, imo.

 

Ortiz and Cruz would be a start.

[WHarris1]

If anyone is interested in watching Jones, the Braves are playing on TBS right now.

 

I am watching to see what the hell people are talking about him being lazy.

Personally I would love this guy.

 

 

As a I type he makes a fine running catch at the track.

[Guest JimH]

No, when I say flip him for prospects, I mean the Braves would be flipping Maggs for prospects, not the Sox. 

 

The Sox do this deal because it makes them better, bottomline.  I realize trading your star isn't necessarily the big thing to do, but this makes the Sox much better, and anything that makes the club better now only now but in the future, I make, stardom be damn.

 

I also think Sox fans would rally and learn to love Andruw Jones and the type of defense he plays and I'm convinced he'll hit 50 Hr's for the Sox in a season while he's under contract.  To me its a no brainer if its on the table.

We're on the same topic but we're talking about two different things

 

Yes, I knew you meant Atlanta trading Maggs for prospects, my point was, why do the Sox need Atlanta? If the Sox wanted to trade him for prospects, they could do it themselves.

 

The point I'm driving at is twofold Jason:

 

1. It doesn't make sense that the Sox would trade Maggs. They are going for it. They just picked up the best starter available. Why would they turn around and trade arguably their best hitter?

 

2. The assumption is the Braves will demand Maggs in order to give up Jones. I say not so. They want young and cheap and want out from Jones' contract. They want prospects and maybe a young regular. What need do they have for Ordonez, given their situation (standings and financial)? None.

 

We agree that Jones would be a good fit for the Sox. What I'm saying is, it won't cost them Maggs. I contend the Sox aren't shopping Maggs for the reasons stated above. Again, the Sox are in "add" mode. They don't want to move sideways, and there's no need to, given the dynamics at play.

[MnSoxFan]

Myself, I want to keep Maggs for stretch run, then let him walk and get the number 1 and the sammich pick. We need to reload our system, we are getting very weak.

[Chisoxfn]

I agree it could work, but if the Sox are going to do that, then JR also has to approve more payroll increases to add more pitching cause the current pitching staff isn't enough.

 

In this case, if you get Jones and Ortiz for prospects, I sure as hell hope they don't give up much prospect wise cause they'll be taking on a lot of contract. Then they let Maggs walk at the end of the season for the two draft picks or if for whatever reason teh Sox win it all, they can resign everyone, who knows.

 

That makes sense to me. Rowand/Rauch and one other prospect for those two...but would the Braves also send some cash.

[Guest JimH]

I should add, I want more pitching, I could give a damn about hitting, the Sox offense is good, but the pitching staff and pen could still use upgrades, imo. 

Agree the Sox could use more pitching.

 

Who couldn't?

 

A decent bullpen arm could likely be had later, i.e. July 31 or even August 31.

 

As for another starter, yes I agree, that would be nice.

[southsideirish]

believe it will be something like Rowand/Rauch/Diaz/Davis for Jones/Ortiz/Estrada. The Braves get good young talented prospects while at the same time cutting payroll drastically. We get all star caliber talent add a bunch of payroll and it allows us to move Shoew or Garland into the bullpen. How about that team?

 

Imagine that lineup

 

2B Harris/Uribe

LF Carlos Lee

RF Magglio

DH Big Frank

1B Konerko

SS Valentin

CF Andruw Jones

C Johnny Estrada

3B Joe Crede

 

Rotation

Garcia

Buehrle

Loaiza

Ortiz

Shoew/Garland

 

Bullpen

Shingo

Marte

Politte

Garland/Shoew

Adkins

Cotts

Jackson

 

We could add a bullpen arm later maybe? Cut Jackson loose? A man can dream can't he?

[Chisoxfn]

Agree the Sox could use more pitching.

 

Who couldn't? 

 

A decent bullpen arm could likely be had later, i.e. July 31 or even August 31.

 

As for another starter, yes I agree, that would be nice.

Thats the thing, adding Jones instead of a stud pitcher, isn't the best way of addressing things, imo. If Kenny has been told the Sox can do both, then hell ya, do it.

 

Jones will be here a few years so I'll give something up, and get Ortiz as well, plus it shouldn't take much prospect wise if the Braves want to dump his contract so bad.

[Chisoxfn]

believe it will be something like Rowand/Rauch/Diaz/Davis for Jones/Ortiz/Estrada. The Braves get good young talented prospects while at the same time cutting payroll drastically. We get all star caliber talent add a bunch of payroll and it allows us to move Shoew or Garland into the bullpen. How about that team?

 

Imagine that lineup

 

2B Harris/Uribe

LF Carlos Lee

RF Magglio

DH Big Frank

1B Konerko

SS Valentin

CF Andruw Jones

C Johnny Estrada

3B Joe Crede

 

Rotation

Garcia

Buehrle

Loaiza

Ortiz

Shoew/Garland

 

Bullpen

Shingo

Marte

Politte

Garland/Shoew

Adkins

Cotts

Jackson

 

We could add a bullpen arm later maybe? Cut Jackson loose? A man can dream can't he?

IF KW can do that

 

I'm definately with ya.

[Dick Allen]

If the Sox want Estrada, they are going to have to give up Marte. Even that might not be enough. They'll get Juan Cruz back.

[Guest JimH]

Some of this will have to play out, patience may be a virtue here now that Garcia is on board.

 

Meaning, a starter may become available 3-4 weeks from now that's a good fit.

 

I would say Jamie Moyer but I think the Yankees will be all over that. They need a lefthander and are stinging from missing out on Freddy.

 

If we're talking salary dump situations, there's always the trusty Pittsburgh Pirates. I'm not thrilled with Benson but he'd be decent at #5. I'm guessing though, their focus is bullpen because the top 4 rotation guys are lined up now that Garcia's been added. That is just speculation by me.

 

One thing I'm very sure of though ... Williams is not done yet.

[WHarris1]

I think for the time being KW needs to go out and get a reliable reliever.

Nothing huge just someone else who can be counted on for an inning.

[southsideirish]

If the Sox want Estrada, they are going to have to give up Marte. Even that might not be enough.  They'll get Juan Cruz back.

Why is that? What makes you think that? I highly doubt Marte is going anywhere. A dominant lefty reliever is just too valuable.

[Whitewashed in '05]

Why is that? What makes you think that? I highly doubt Marte is going anywhere. A dominant lefty reliever is just too valuable.

More valuable than a good catcher?

[ZeroHour]

Im not one to wildly speculate rotisserie style, but a few things come to mind with all these Atlanta rumors swirling.

 

The Braves want to dump salary.

Jones and Ortiz are not long for the Braves due to their salaries and the Braves lack of true contention, they will be moved. These facts combine to point to a "White flag" style deal. (This is the same team that oculd not afford maddux/glavine/sheffield in recent years.)

 

I would not be suprised if any combination of Jones/Ortiz/Estrada came to the whitesox for a basket of prospects and cash. A better way to look at this is to think of 2003 Alomar and Everett on the same team. We traded 4 prospects and cash for both of them.

 

Meanwhile, you have that same team WITH MAGGS....RIGHT NOW (pending).

you have to believe that Maggs is in play still, but you also have to think that if Atlanta wanted to add payroll, we wouldnt be having this discussion in the first place. The Atlanta Maggs for prospects flip is also possible, but that opens up the multi-team pandoras box. lets not go there.

 

 

 

Sound the gong.

ZeroHour

[Dick Allen]

Why is that? What makes you think that? I highly doubt Marte is going anywhere. A dominant lefty reliever is just too valuable.

Marte is a target of the Braves. Estrada is hitting almost .340. He probably is the Braves MVP thus far this year. He is known as a good defensive catcher. He makes the minimum. Teams don't trade that for prospects. The Atlanta GM is one of the best in the business, he doesn't get hoodwinked. Levineline mentioned Marte and Juan Cruz perhaps switching teams, maybe he has accurate information for once. Don't think for a second Estrada is coming here for prospects or as a throw in. He will work for cheap for several more years.