Gene Honda Civic Posted June 29, 2004 Share Posted June 29, 2004 http://www.twinsgeek.com/ Friday we talked about overpaying for that one arm that will get a team to the playoffs and beyond. White Sox GM Kenny Williams thinks he has found that arm and paid top dollar for it. By doing so, he may have defined his franchise's direction for the next half dozen years. He may have also influenced the direction our favorite franchise takes over the next half dozen years. The Chicago White Sox were buyers yesterday in the second (and I suspect last) blockbuster deal of the trade season. They sent their starting catcher (Miguel Olivo) and two prospects (Jeremy Reed and Michael Morse) for the best available starting pitcher (Freddy Garcia) and a catching ex-prospect (Ben Davis). This is the second major trade to happen early in the season, and the Mariners pulled the trigger this early because the White Sox paid top dollar. Olivo is one of the better hitting catchers in the American League this year, is just 25 years old, and he won't sniff any real money until 2006. Jeremy Reed was one of the White Sox top hitting prospects, though that's probably overstating his value a bit. Michael Morse is a 22-year-old shortstop sporting a .536 slugging percentage in AA. So all three players are quality commodities for any organization. Mariners fans should be thrilled with the rebuilding efforts of their GM Bill Bavasi. Twins fans can also take some solace in the possible effect of this trade on the White Sox in 2005 and beyond. At the very least, this trade will make it more expensive for the White Sox starting next year. At best, we could be seeing the beginning of the decline of a dynasty that never really was. But that's also what makes it such a good trade for the White Sox. The White Sox best hitter, Magglio Ordonez, and (arguably) best starting pitcher, Esteban Loaiza, are both free agents after this year. Impact players Carlos Lee, Paul Konerko and Mark Buehrle, are under contract for a couple more years, but start getting very expensive at the same time. And Frank Thomas isn't getting any younger. The White Sox are fast approaching a time when they'll need to rebuild their core group of players, in the same way that the Twins will soon need to. So the time to win is now. The White Sox are just a game behind the Twins. They have an offense that can mash, seemingly have stabilized their bullpen, and just filled the biggest hole in their starting rotation. That shouldn't just make them a serious contender for the AL Central. It should make them a serious contender for the AL pennant. Essentially, Kenny Williams is challenging Freddy Garcia, his players, and his new manager to show ownership that this team is worth investing in. It's a huge gamble, because if it fails, it's easy to see management tightening their purse strings and letting some fantastic players walk away. In that scenario, Kenny Williams has to retool without the top prospects he's traded away over the last couple years. Eventually, he has to explain these monster contracts he has for a team that isn't competing or drawing at the gate. For Twins fans, that's heaven. Now let me introduce you to hell. The White Sox could make a run, not just into the playoffs, but through the playoffs. Perceived as being close, management could open up their checkbook, keep their core players, and add some difference makers. A franchise that hasn't won a World Series in nearly 90 years, and which is really the only large market in the AL Central, invests an extra $20-$30 million in their team. The Twins, without a stadium or a TV network, don't match that spending level. They end up in second place for a couple of years, and now the shoe is on the other foot.... Whether it was necessary or not, I think Kenny Williams has anointed these next three months to be the defining moment for the White Sox of this decade. He'll be looking for Ozzie Guillen, his players and especially Freddy Garcia to respond. But it may be equally important how the Twins, their manager, and their GM respond. The Twins veterans hitters need to start justifying their salaries. Ron Gardenhire needs to figure out how Shannon Stewart can influence the lineup to hit more than Scott Ulger can. And GM Terry Ryan is going to have to figure out a way to fill some holes or acquire some impact players when the two biggest ones are now no longer on the market. This trade means that tomorrow night, at 7:10 PM, the 2004 AL Central division race officially starts. This trade means that this time, it isn't just for a handful of games in October. This trade means that the stakes are higher, and might include the direction two franchises take over the next several years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted June 29, 2004 Share Posted June 29, 2004 Awesome article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aboz56 Posted June 29, 2004 Share Posted June 29, 2004 Very good points from the Twins fan. And he is exactly right, this trade working out for the Sox has a lot to do with the shaping of this division over the next few years. We make a nice run in the playoffs, open the checkbook and we have a great shot of controlling the division. If we falter and do nothing, we are going to be going into rebuilding mode. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greasywheels121 Posted June 29, 2004 Share Posted June 29, 2004 That was a great article. It really shows what can happen...good or bad. It's an interesting read, and it really makes you realize some things. This team has had the same solid core for a few years now, and it's been successful. However, it's not the success that gets you anywhere. I'm just excited to see how this pans out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YASNY Posted June 29, 2004 Share Posted June 29, 2004 Very insightful article, but I think he is seriously overstating the potential of a White Sox demise if this doesn't get the Sox into the Series. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi8is Posted June 29, 2004 Share Posted June 29, 2004 great article, thanks for posting! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted June 29, 2004 Share Posted June 29, 2004 Very insightful article, but I think he is seriously overstating the potential of a White Sox demise if this doesn't get the Sox into the Series. If it doesn't get us to the Series...that's fine. We can live without the series. We NEED to win the division. And quite frankly, the Twins do too. They are the 2-time defending champs and all, but that does not matter right now. That is in the rear view mirror. If they do not win, they could be looking at losing quite a few players. But the Series would be OK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwerty Posted June 29, 2004 Share Posted June 29, 2004 If it doesn't get us to the Series...that's fine. We can live without the series. We NEED to win the division. And quite frankly, the Twins do too. They are the 2-time defending champs and all, but that does not matter right now. That is in the rear view mirror. If they do not win, they could be looking at losing quite a few players. But the Series would be OK. I think if we got to the world series we would not complain to much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted June 29, 2004 Share Posted June 29, 2004 If it doesn't get us to the Series...that's fine. We can live without the series. We NEED to win the division. And quite frankly, the Twins do too. They are the 2-time defending champs and all, but that does not matter right now. That is in the rear view mirror. If they do not win, they could be looking at losing quite a few players. But the Series would be OK. It's a 2 team race, although the Tribe believe they can steal the division with the signin of Aaron Boone to a 2 year deal. They could go afta sum1 like Urbina, but I know Shapiro doesn't want to giv up his prospects. Realistically if Maggs and Freddy leave next year, we've got some big holes to fill, and we might as well rebuild. Invest in young position players, give Borchard the RF spot, and sign a young starter or 2. We could hav a situation where we'll hav lots of early draft picks in the draft again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandoFan Posted June 29, 2004 Share Posted June 29, 2004 If it doesn't get us to the Series...that's fine. We can live without the series. We NEED to win the division. And quite frankly, the Twins do too. They are the 2-time defending champs and all, but that does not matter right now. That is in the rear view mirror. If they do not win, they could be looking at losing quite a few players. But the Series would be OK. As long as Cubs miss the playoffs, winning the Series is not a must. Even if Yankees and Red Sox weren't so damn good, winning the Series has everybit to do with luck as it does with skill. Even if Sox can pull of a miracle and get Randy Johnson, they could get swept out of ALDS. Such is baseball. Making the playoffs, drawing a bunch of fans, putting the SouthSide back on the national map, on the other hand, is a HUGE MUST........If Sox happen to lose in ALCS, than so be it. Hopefully 2004 is just the beginning of great things to come. Having said that, it may very well be the last year for Magglio, Thomas, Loaiza, Valentin, Sandy and even one of Konerko/Lee with this team, especially if Sox don't have a great 2nd half to this season....Better not f*** it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danman31 Posted June 29, 2004 Share Posted June 29, 2004 I remember this guy talking about the Sox making deals for Alomar and Everett last year and it was awful. He is so biased that if the White Sox won the World Series he would find a positive spin for the Twins, "They won't be going for it next year now that they won it." I swear this guy can be dense. That wasn't a bad article, but the point remains he is biased. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soxman352000 Posted June 29, 2004 Share Posted June 29, 2004 They guy who wrote this is a dope, but he does make a good point that the Sox will suffer in future years to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
da_bears86 Posted June 29, 2004 Share Posted June 29, 2004 i thought it was a fairly good article, some good points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soxbadger Posted June 29, 2004 Share Posted June 29, 2004 He overstates our demise and potentially how we could lose for this trade. Next year we will be looking at holes in the starting rotation, RF, and catcher. The rest of the team is locked up, with the Indians being a potential spender, JR will spend to keep pace with them. His MO is not to try and beat everyones brains in, but stay competitive. Whoever is the biggest threat, we will spend to their level. We spent like the Indians when they were the top, we spend like the Twins now. The team that has to win now is the Twins, because a few years ago they were on the cusp of being contracted. The Sox are the staple team of the AL Central, without it, there are only mid to small market teams. Regardless of if we finish 2nd or 1st, Reinsdorf will make his money this year, which might just give them the desire to go out and make an offer on a player like Mulder or Berkman. Who knows, but if anything our salaries for next year give us some major room for improvement. SB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted June 29, 2004 Share Posted June 29, 2004 They guy who wrote this is a dope, but he does make a good point that the Sox will suffer in future years to come. Says who? We will not necessarily suffer. That's his opinion, and while it is a very informed opinion and he makes good points to back it up, it is not a fact. Anderson and Sweeney could take huge steps towards development next year and become what Blalock and Teixiera were for Texas a couple years ago...Gio Gonzalez could fly through the system and have everything just click...Honel could finally become a stud pitcher...who knows. Maybe we win this year, bring in all kinds of money, retain Garcia, retain Maggs, get 2 good arms for the pen...who the hell really knows? This year is make or break for the Sox, and could very well be make or break for the Twins too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Hudler Posted June 29, 2004 Share Posted June 29, 2004 I remember this guy talking about the Sox making deals for Alomar and Everett last year and it was awful. He is so biased that if the White Sox won the World Series he would find a positive spin for the Twins, "They won't be going for it next year now that they won it." I swear this guy can be dense. That wasn't a bad article, but the point remains he is biased. Of course he is biased.... as is everyone on here.... I thought that was a very good piece. His points can be argued both ways, but he backs them up with insights. He looked at both ends of the spectrum and did it well. I was impressed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted June 29, 2004 Share Posted June 29, 2004 He's definitely over-stating the demise. The fact is the SOX have found a comfort level in pricing, admissions, & payroll. It seems to be the 60 million range. All of their revenue is going up in the years to come: better TV contract with Comcast, better radio deal with WMVP, & a city & state board commited to the success of the White Sox. I think that's a big part of the relationship with the White Sox & IL that no team in the ALC enjoys: we're all in this together. A more successful gate means the Sox pay rent on the stadium that tax payers fit the bill for. The state of IL is commited to making that happen. Revenue wise a return to a payroll in the 30-40 range is not likely no matter how the Twins fan thinks to spin the worst case scenario. All this team needs to do is win a few games in the post-season & I wouldn't put it past the current board to sell the team to Comcast while maintaining some shares. I think Comcast will be trying to buy this team every year of it's TV contract with the SOX because it makes good financial sense to do so. The other reason why I feel the Twins fan is grossly over-stating the demise is because he's ignoring how effective Williams has been in drafting talent & then grooming that talent. Williams is really shaping up to be one of the best talent evaluators in the league. I remain steadfast in my belief that Kenny has yet to let a game breaker get away from the SOX. Good players have left for greener pastures but not great ones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted June 29, 2004 Share Posted June 29, 2004 I remain steadfast in my belief that Kenny has yet to let a game breaker get away from the SOX. Good players have left for greener pastures but not great ones. Kip Wells being the best one he's let go so far, no? Either way, I do agree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandoFan Posted June 29, 2004 Share Posted June 29, 2004 Williams is really shaping up to be one of the best talent evaluators in the league. Yeah, that Matt Ginter/Jeff Leifer/Mark Johnson/Royce Ring sure is great Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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