Scouting the Garcia Deal

[Mariner Analyst]

Wanted: M's fans vs. Sox fans discussion

 

 

By my monniker and the title of this thread , I think you can tell what I'm about and looking for. (Obviously) I'm an M's fan who's looking for your reactions/impressions on the Garcia trade. If this discussion is popular and some of you are interested ... I'd LOVE to set up a thread over on the site that I post at. I can promise that it would be lively from the M's fans there. What I can tell you about myself is that I'm NOT here to talk trash!!! That's NOT my style!! Above all, I believe in good sportsmanship and being respectful I try very hard to be as objective as possible in my assessments of players.

 

 

I last talked with some White Sox fans in the offseason (around January) on the MLB message boards and had some discussions about a hypothetical Garcia deal at that time. Now that it's finally happened ... I want to get your impressions as well as scouting reports and takes on the players that the Mariners got back in return.

 

For those White Sox fans who've actually SEEN Reed and Morse, I'd especially love to get your takes. I know that they'll be plenty of you who can comment on Olivo.

What's your personal scouting reports for each of these players (offensively, defensively, personality, etc.) I'm interested in knowing ALL the positives and negatives surrounding these players. What are your takes?

 

 

As an M's fan, I'll try to answer any questions you might have about Garcia and Davis. Here is my quick .02 on both ... stuff that you may or may not read about:

 

Freddy Garcia: As a brush-up, I decided to read ESPN's scouting report on Garcia (to get a bit of a reference point). Their take on him is that although he's got a great fastball, he tends to fall in love with his breaking pitch. That scouting report's right on the money. He's got a GREAT fastball (can hit 97 mph) ... but to me has never seemed to fully trust his stuff.

 

For those of you who haven't paid close attention to what's happened with him in Seattle, his contract situation has been quite a fiasco. Though he's desired a multi-year deal for several years now, management's refused to give it to him. The reason for that ... perhaps Gillick said it best indirectly at the start of the 2002 season: His offseason goal was to get a #1 starter. I.E. -- he didn't believe Garcia was one. Many Seattle fans are in agreement with this -- he's a VERY good #2 that when he gets hot ... look out!! He can be dominant (as you guys well know) and can take over a game. However, there have been many that see him as psychologically fragile at times. In the past, he's shown that he CAN be rattled!! (but obviously, not this year). There's a poll out right now in the Seattle Times sports section asking about Garcia --- last I checked, 64% of fans said dealing Freddy was the right move.

 

The local scuttlebutt surrounding him ... is that he and Carlos Guillen hit a few too many nightclubs together (if you know what I mean). Local media allude to this ALL the time and many fans believe that this is why Guillen was dealt. However, much of this could be attributed to the fact that Garcia (in many ways) is still fairly young and acts at times like a Big Kid. He recently got married -- which probably has tamed him down a bit.

 

Ben Davis: A blue-chipper talent catcher who's got all the tools. If he can ever get it together, he can be an All Star. Good switch hitter that seems to hit better hitting from the left side. During the first half of last year, Davis was on an absolute tear -- hitting .290. His second half was a tale of 2 cities.

 

Here's what you may not read in the papers ... fans and those close to the team who were at Spring Training say that Davis' ineptness behind the dish was THE talk of Spring Training. There was a great article written about this in the Tacoma News Tribune during Spring Training. The gist of the article was highlighting a conversation between a Padres scout and an M's scout who were both watching Davis. The M's scout apparently made a comment to the Padres scout, pointing out the flaws in Davis' game calling. The Padres scout reportedly answered: "I know ... we saw 4 years of this. That's why he's your problem and not ours." Bob Melvin (himself a former catcher) even called Ben out after 1 game -- saying that he made several BAD CALLS. Some fans on our board (who were at Spring Training) reported this BEFORE this article ever came out. Besides his lack of offense, that's why he ended up at AAA.

 

 

There you go ... sorry if this was a bit of a negative posting. It wasn't meant to be. I just was trying to be completely honest, sharing some stuff that you may not hear. These guys DO -- BOTH have loads of talent - enough to be fixtures for you -- esp. Garcia. He's young and has the POTENTIAL to develop into a #1. If there's anything else that you want to know, just let me know.

 

 

So ... those are some of my comments on Garcia and Davis -- what are your scouting reports on Olivo, Reed, and Morse? I'd love to hear what you guys have to say (the positives and negatives) on their offensive and defensive capabilities/skills. How do you guys feel overall about the trade? Let me hear ya.

 

MA

[southsider2k5]

Thanks for the info MA. We always appreciate an alternative point of view. I am sure you will get some good info on Morse and Reed as we have some great minor league info that flows through this site. Also you can check our sister site, futuresox.com for info on Reed, Morse, and the trade.

[Mariner Analyst]

Guys ... I'd LOVE to get an M's fans vs. White Sox fans discussion going on this deal. If you're all interested, I'll post a link to this discussion. I can PROMISE you that the discussion's going to be LIVELY. At the very least, it'll be interesting for ya. The poster's on the M's board that I post on are pretty knowledgable and saavy. So ... are you guys game? Just say the word.

 

MA

[Wedge]

Yeah, I just talked to my buddy from Seattle. He seemed pretty happy with the trade overall and said that he thought both teams came out ahead of where they were.

 

He feels bad that the season was tanking and wasn't sure why they were considering Moyer untradable. Something about "managment has to let go of the past" when we were discussing Moyer.

 

I think both sides will end up fairly happy after all is said and done.

[aboz56]

Gotta be quick here because I've got to go to work, but since I have seen Reed pretty extensively, here goes:

 

Hitter who uses all parts of the field with one of the most level and compact swings you will find in baseball. There's no doubt about the fact that this guy is an extremely tough out who won't be beat the same way twice. Makes the necessary adjustments in his approach to be successful. I would say his speed is slightly above average and his defense is slightly above average. Could play CF, but would be better off at one of the corner spots in the long run. His wrist problems are a concern, as he admitted to me that they've been bothering him since his play with Team USA this past offseason when he aggrivated an earlier wrist injury. Many believe this is part of the reason they were willing to deal Reed rather than Joe Borchard. Projects to be a .300 hitter at the next level, with 10-15 home run potential and would be ideal in the 2 hole.

 

BTW, there is also a 5 min interview I did with Jeremy earlier in the season that can be listened to here:

 

http://www.futuresox.com/interviews/Reed.rm

[CWSGuy406]

All I can tell you about Olivo is..... he's a crazy man!

[baggio202]

ill give you my take on olivo..

 

alot of good and bad...alot of oddities with him..

 

the good...runs extremely well for a catcher...playing in your ballpark and the way he hits (alot of gappers) it wouldnt surprise me if he led or was close to the team lead in triples...has a real live bat...when he makes contact (which isnt often enough imo) the ball really jumps off his bat...his arm strength is outstanding as is his footwork behind homeplate..does a good job of throwing back to a base after a pitch which helps shorten baserunners secondary lead...when he is on his game defensively he can shut down any teams running game..good bunter too

 

the bad...i guess like the catcher you sent us , olivo is not known as a good game caller...his playing time has been reduced to catching just 2 pitchers because there were complaints by the other pitchers (buehrle was one i believe - cant remember the other) that they didnt like working with olivo...while he has a cannon for an arm its pretty erratic...also he gets lazy behind the plate when blocking pitches in the dirt...he likes to try backhand them instead of moving his body and using his chest to block them...this ,imo,is why pitchers were getting fed up with him...its hard to throw breaking balls to him with runner's on base...he could become a great defensive catcher but he has alot of maturing to do....offensively he streaky..he can go in long funks...some of the stuff he swings at when he is going bad just has me shaking my head...he will swing at a pitch in the dirt and he will be swinging like its a high fastball...im thinking , doeshe even have his eyes open...that also happens to him behind the plate...a pitch will be high and inside and he has his glove low and away and you see the umpire backing away trying not get hit as the ball flies to the backstop...i honestly wonder if there is something wrong with his vision...

 

all in all...he has alot of talent and has skills that most catchers dont have(speed - ability to play small ball)..but he doesnt seem to be maturing at a fast rate...

 

 

as for reed...well i havent seen him so i wont comment on his individual skills but ill comment on our minor league organization...i dont know what it is but we have had alot of everyday players come through with tremendous hype in the past few years and all have been disappointing....joe borchard was compared through the minors to adam dunn...dunn is a year younger than borchard and already has close to 100 career homers and an all star appearance...borchard is still in triple A...joe crede was suppose to arrive in '01...didnt get here until '03 and while he hasnt played bad..he was suppose to be the next scott rolen and so far thats not the case...he's not a bust but back in '01 by now we would have had pegged as an all star..his development is pretty slow...those are the two big names in the org the past few years...other have disappointed tooif you look at our line up all the main stays got here in the last millenium...

 

so i wonder if reed will be another thats all hype..after hitting well over 300 last year and being named player of the year he's hitting 275 with 8 homers playing in charlotte..a hitters paradise..

 

as for morse..we just got him in a trade..dont know anything about him

[Soxbadger]

Ill try and give a fair perspective.

 

1) Reed was considered one of our best if not best prospects. The reason that we probably chose to trade him instead of Borchard, Anderson, Sweeney, is that Reed looks to be a Kotsay type of hitter (most common comparison). Also there were some questions of whether or not he could be a centerfielder, or eventually would have to be a corner outfielder.

 

Reed looks to be a player who will consistently hit +.280 20 hr, and depending on where he is in the line up approach 100 rbis or 100 runs. He will be an average to above average base stealer, maybe getting 25 sbs, I think they have said he gets thrown out to much but Im going from my own mind.

 

Also, because he is going to Safeco, some of these numbers may go down, it just depends on how he adjusts, and what his main focus is when he reaches the majors. If he just tries to hit for average and get on base, he could be a great compliment for Ichiro at the top of the line up, as he has good plate discipline.

 

2) Olivo is a solid catcher, who has potentially great to All-Star upside. He has a very good bat against LHP, and eventually should settle into RHP. He seems to need work on some times covering the outer half of the plate, but other than that he is a pretty good offensive catcher. He also has a great arm, and could become one of the better defensive catchers in the league. His biggest problem will be adjusting and hitting in Safeco, as it was reported the trade was hard on him, especially since he seemed to be comfortable with the Sox. If he doesnt settle in with Seattle, he may slump, especially since Safeco is not as good of a hitters park, and Seattle is not as good of a hitting team. With the Sox he batted 9th, which relieved him of almost all pressure and he was able to thrive. There have been questions about his game calling, but I think that is more smoke than substance.

 

3) Morse I know the least about, but prior to this year I do not think he was doing that well. He seems to have turned the corner, and articles about him talk about his large frame and whether or not he will eventually be moved to 3b. Its hard to project whether or not he will ever make the Majors, hes 22, so he has to start making his move up the chain now.

 

I think the Mariners got a good trade, time will tell, especially since alot depends on this season.

 

SB

[DBAHO]

Morse - Was our best SS in our farm system, which doesn't say much for the infield quality we hav in the minors. Finally hitting well this season, but still strikes out way too much, and hardly draws any BB's. Plate discipline problems.

 

Reed - Power numbers will rapidly decrease at Safeco Field, can't see him playing center field there either, as he doesn't hav the range that Seattle desperately needs. e.g Mike Cameron. You guys will probably trade Winn or Ibanez for prospects to make room for him.

[JUGGERNAUT]

Only Miguel possesses the power stroke to hit (HR,triples) in Safeco.

The others will be average at best in that park. Sorry to tell you this, but it's true.

You have one of the best pitcher's parks in the majors.

 

You should tell your GM that he should have insisted on Borchy instead of Reed & Morse. Borchy might strike out but he's more likely to hit 30 HRs there some day then any of those 3.

 

Olivo will do fine, but now that we know he's having surgery .. it sure smells like a damaged goods scenario. I'm sure it's not serious but it definitely would have sidelined him on the SOX.

[Wedge]

Only Miguel possesses the power stroke to hit (HR,triples) in Safeco.

The others will be average at best in that park.  Sorry to tell you this, but it's true.

You have one of the best pitcher's parks in the majors. 

 

You should tell your GM that he should have insisted on Borchy instead of Reed & Morse.  Borchy might strike out but he's more likely to hit 30 HRs there some day then any of those 3. 

 

Olivo will do fine, but now that we know he's having surgery .. it sure smells like a damaged goods scenario. I'm sure it's not serious but it definitely would have sidelined him on the SOX.

I don't think Olivo's surgery is a factor.

 

That being said, the Mariners didn't get a lot of power out of this deal. MO has got some pop, but it will be interesting to see his power numbers after a few years at SafeCo.

[Rex Hudler]

MA, I'll take a shot at this since I have seen both Reed and Morse pretty extensively in Birmingham.

 

The best compliment I can give Reed is that he just looks the part of a baseball player. He works hard, handles himself professionally and just looks like he belongs on the field. He commands the strike zone well, as can be see by his walk and striekout rates. Getting behind 0-2 in the count does not seem to phase him. He uses the whole field and has more pop than people give him credit for. Right now it is more doubles power, but that could develop. His swing has been compared to that of a young Rafael Palmeiro. Defensively, his range is a bit suspect, but he goes all out. He comes in on the ball very well and is not afraid to make a diving play. His arm is about average, but is accurate. He does the little things well. Long term, JR could be Mark Kotsay or Raffy Palmeiro or something in between. He may not turn into an all-star, but he will be a nice player and one that you will enjoy watching.

 

Morse is more of a project. He is 6'4 and has a great body, yet has good mobility. HE has had 30 doubles each of the last two years, which the Sox were banking on developing into HR power down the road. He is only 22 and is still somewhat raw, but the tools are definitely. He broke out this year in Birmingham, hitting 11 HR in the first half, matching his previous career high. He hit # 3 in the batting order and was an important part of the offense. I think he will need at least 2 years of AAA before he is ready, but he certainly has the tools to be a big time player. He is just not as polished.

 

He is a great guy who smiles all the time and has fun playing the game. On the downside, his plate discipline needs work. He gets himself out too often swinging at bad pitches. Upper levels will expose that weakness more and more if he cannot improve there. I did see some improvement in that area from early this season until right before he was traded, so there is hope. Some also question whether he will be able to play SS at the MLB level. I can't say for sure he will be able to, but I think a lot of people wrote him off because he looks more like a 3B. San Antonio will be happy with the player they got, I have no doubt about that.

 

Lastly, what Mariner fans need to understand about this trade is that they had an ace in the hole. Bob Fontaine is now the Seattle Director of Scouting (I believe that is the correct title). He was the White Sox Farm Director the previous 2 or 3 years. It can be argued that he knows the White Sox system better than anyone, even those in the Sox organization. I have no doubt that Fontaine had major input in which players to get in the trade. Fontaine has previously been successful with the Angels and was very good with the Sox. He knew what he wanted and knew who to get. That is rarely the case with big trades like this, so it was a major advantage to the M's.

 

Hope this helps.

[Spiff]

Morse - Was our best SS in our farm system, which doesn't say much for the infield quality we hav in the minors.

I don't think that's true.

[Rex Hudler]

Mariner Analyst, where do you post?? MLB Boards?

[JUGGERNAUT]

If it is true that it came down to a choice betw Crede & Miguel then KW made the right choice. Just take a look at Crede's production as we enter July! Yowza!

[Rex Hudler]

If it is true that it came down to a choice betw Crede & Miguel then KW made the right choice.  Just take a look at Crede's production as we enter July!  Yowza!

Actually it came down to Olivo and Crede or Olivo, Reed and Morse........

Olivo was always in the deal.

[SoxFan1]

Make the M's fans come to us!

[Mariner Analyst]

White Sox Fans --- Mariner Fans Pow-Wow!!

Calling All Brave Warriors ... Let's discuss the Freddy Garcia Deal

 

A few days ago, a link was posted to a this site (soxtalk.com) over on my "Home Board" www.seattlemariners.topmlbforums.com.

 

As the Freddy Garcia deal is now history (just like the M's season LOL!!!), ‘ol MA went a spiritual quest yesterday morning --- seeking Prospect Truth. And ... Like Moses coming down from Mt. Sinai after seeing the burning bush, I came back down this mountain to TOPMLB to share some of the TABLETS of wisdom that I had gained from White Sox fans here as to the M’s side of the deal.

 

Convening a Great Council

 

After sharing some of my own thoughts on Garcia and Davis … I had a REVELATION!! … I was thinking WAY too small.

 

Why not have a roaring discussion between M’s fans and White Sox fans about the deal itself? TOPMLB and SoxTalk posters sharing their thoughts on the deal:

 

Scouting reports on the Players involved ... Thoughts and opinions of the deal ... secret little “goodies” that only get discussed in the form of whispers, etc.

 

So … Brave warriors from Rival Nations!!

 

White Sox fans .... Mariners fans ....

 

Let us sit upon the ground … don the peace pipe … and discuss the particulars of this deal under truce. Let your ideas and opinions on it flow.

 

Discussion can take place at the Wig Wam of your choice:

 

Wig Wam #1:

 

(I've posted the link to this thread over at TOPMLB ... If I know them ... they'll come a knocking!!)

 

 

Wig Wam #2:

 

(Or you guys can come visit us ... feel free to stop by. We M's fans will be awaitin')

 

Link to TOPMLB:

 

http://seattlemariners.topmlbforums.com/fo...?showtopic=1511

 

 

Here’s hoping this thread is a fun and educational one for Mariner and White Sox fans alike. Post away Kemosabes!!

 

Boom … Boom … Boom … Boom … Hey-ya – Hey-ya --- Hey-ya-ya.

 

MA

[Mariner Analyst]

White Sox fans ... where are you? We've heard from a couple of you, but would like more. Some of the fans on our site have provided a few comments.

 

MA

[Mariner Analyst]

The Mariner Fans have Spoken ...

 

Well White Sox fans ... No other M's fans have made their way here yet but me.

 

HOWEVER, there has actually been quite a bit of discussion on this thread over on the TOPMLB site that I posted there this morning.

 

So ... since you guys have been generous with me with all the prospect assessment "goodies" ... I thought I'd return the favor. Here are a few of the responses by posters there:

 

Posted by Flyingdutchman:

 

And of course, until the Sox sign Garcia to an extension, the deal is strongly in favor of the Ms. The White Sox may go to the PO this year but they will be steamrolled by the force that is the [Yankees]

 

 

Posted by BlueForce (Responding to Flyingdutchman):

 

They look nasty right now, but they [Yankees] could really have used Freddy. Unless they get another decent SP they could be in trouble later if Brown keeps breaking down. Lieber has an ERA of over 5, Mussina is not doing good this year, Contreras is a gamble on every outing. That leaves Vazquez. He's good, but he's not going to carry them into the WS.

 

I'm not saying they are bad, they have the best record in MLB, but they don't look scary in a playoff scenario, since they won't get the oodles of runs they've been getting over the regular season.

 

Now, they might go out and buy the WS by getting RJ.

 

 

Posted by TopCat:

 

As good as this trade appears to be for the M's, I can't help but admire the Sox for having the stones to pull the trigger and a deal a month BEFORE the deadline to get themselves a real horse who has significant playoff experience and has put up some impressive numbers...including three gems against the Skankees all of which came in two different ALCS matchups...one of which was a goose egg he cooked up for the loving fans at Yankee Stadium.

 

That's something the Sox staff really lacked...a playoff proven horse. Now they got a nice shiney new one.

 

And if history has proven anything in a short series...you best be stacked at the TOR. The M's misplayed that card in 2001 relying on Aaron Sele and Paul "No hitter with 8 walks in 5 innings" Abbott.....arggh

 

Pulling the trigger on a deadline deal as a buyer, is something this franchise forgot how to do AFTER 95.

 

You'd think we might have learned a lesson back then.

 

Nonetheless....I like the deal.

 

MA

[Mariner Analyst]

Mariner Fans Continue ...

 

Posted by Silentpadna:

 

Steven Covey in The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People cites one of the habits as "Think Win-Win".

 

This is exactly the kind of trade this was. In each team's given situation, if I were GM, I would do the deal.

 

I also admire Williams for having the guts to take a risk. One thing I've been preaching about around here (long with Mr Baseball) is the concept of "Risk avoidance is a huge risk in and of itself". Williams is taking the shot and not going after small potatoes.

 

The Sox gained a warrior of a pitcher. I don't think he has quite the stuff he had a few years ago, but he seems to have made an excellent adjustment and become a more consistent pitcher. Adding a slider to his repertoire last year was a huge step in making him that.

 

If Freddy helps the Sox get to the WS, Sox fans will have gotten the value from this deal whether he stays there or not.

 

Personally, I'm a White Sox fan come October. I'd like to see the gutsy move payoff.

 

And of course, I am very excited about each piece of the puzzle the M's received in return.

 

 

Posted by Mr. Baseball:

 

What Mr. Padna said. Go Sox!

 

 

Posted by Careless1:

 

An excellent assessment. Garcia is no longer a guy who has potential to be a Cy Young but he can consistently be a #2 or #3 pitcher now. As for getting to the WS, it will take an under performance for NYY to get beat but the Sox are now among the 3 or 4 best teams in the AL.

They are a much better team than most give them credit for.

 

Posted by Myohmymariners:

 

Freddy sounds very happy to be on the Sox--he was SO frustrated at the lack of run support in Seattle. For the M's, I think it's a great long-term deal. Congrats to both GMs for having the stones to pull it off. (Actually, I guess it was Olivo who had the stones, as it turns out....)

 

Reed hit a dinger in Tacoma last night. He'll be up in a matter of weeks, I'd wager.

[Mariner Analyst]

Posted by IcebreakerX:

 

Let's See...

 

Freddy Garcia... I have to go with DrD's opinion that he's no longer a TOR starter and G's comparison to Freddy being an older, overpaid Joel Pineiro (they can explain what that's about if he wants). Garcia is good and he'll probably eat innings, but I don't think he'll be able to toss shut down games like he used to. Freddy was able to shut it down partially in the playoffs in 2000 and 2001, but I really don't know how he'll do now. Also, New Commisky is playing severely towards a hitters park, so I think Garcia's faults will probably show up more.

 

Buehrle and Loaiza are also good pitchers and adding Freddy only helps, but I'm not sure it could withstand an offense showdowns against Boston, NY or Anaheim or pitching duels v. Oakland. With the way Minnesota is playing, the Central can be won, but all of it? Not so sure yet.

 

Eardrums and Marriage may have also stabilized Freddy, but I wouldn't bet on him long term. Essentially, Chicago got another Loaiza/Buehrle type, IMO.

 

Ben Davis... Is Ben Davis. I supported him while he was still in the system and in some ways, he looks similar to Jason Varitek. But since he's not here anymore, I will proceed to hit him with a bat on the way out. I don't think he'll become anything more than a mediocre backup catcher. He's run out of time and he'll probably just be non-tendered at the end of the season or something. He has all the tools, but apparently not the head. But what does he care? He still gets close to a million a year.

 

Posted by Dr. Detecto:

 

The White Sox' suits have "stapled a check" to their words. ... It is now clear to EVERYBODY that the Sox' OWNERS, VP's, & GM's want to win the pennant...

 

And that the SUITS will SACRIFICE for that pennant.

 

This (1) makes good morale possible, and (2) provides the soldiers the support that they need, and (3) constitutes a commitment of good-faith business practices towards the paying customer.

 

You go Sox,

Dr D

 

Whew ... there you go Sox fans. Those are some of the thoughts of Mariner fans here. We've got some VERY knowledgable and entertaining posters over on our board. Feel free to stop by anytime.

 

MA

[YASNY]

Posted by IcebreakerX:

 

 

 

Posted by Dr. Detecto:

 

 

 

Whew ... there you go Sox fans.  Those are some of the thoughts of Mariner fans here.  We've got some VERY knowledgable and entertaining posters over on our board.  Feel free to stop by anytime. 

 

MA

I'd have to agree with you. It sounds like you have some posters that know their stuff. Thanks for posting all this.