1st half fantasy baseball busts

[knightni]

Fantasy Busts

 

 

First Half Busts

 

by Court E. Mann - Associate Editor, Fanball.com

Wednesday, July 7, 2004

You've got to love the All-Star Game. Five-tool stud Carlos Beltran can't play even though the game will be held in his home stadium, but somehow fading veteran Barry Larkin finds his way into the lineup. The American League Central's third-place squad (Cleveland) boasts four All-Stars, twice as many combined as the two teams (Twins, White Sox) ahead of them in the standings. The league's top offense for much of the season's first half (the White Sox) gets zero hitters into the game, and their lone representative (Esteban Loaiza) trails teammate Mark Buehrle in every significant pitching statistic.

 

Ah, the joys of Bud Selig's Midsummer Classic. Luckily, fantasy baseball has no such constraints, biases, or ulterior motives. When it comes to detailing our biggest disappointments in the first half of the 2004 season, the numbers simply don't lie.

 

Jorge Posada, C, Yankees It's usually tough to find fault with a catcher who has 10 homers and 35 RBI at the halfway mark—that is, unless he's coming off an MVP-caliber campaign and plays for the most fearsome lineup in the major leagues. Posada hit 30 homers and drove in 101 while hitting .281 last season, but he's on pace for only 20 dingers, 70 RBI, and a .265 average. The additions of A-Rod and Sheff have had more of a negative than positive effect on Jorge's opportunities; after hitting cleanup often last season, he's often found himself in the bottom half of the batting order in '04.

 

 

Catcher Runner-ups: Mike Lieberthal (Phillies)

 

Carlos Delgado, 1B, Blue Jays If we had to nominate an MVP for this wretched collection of disappointments, Delgado might be the unanimous winner. At this time last season, Carlos had a league-leading 97 RBI, 24 homers, 76 runs scored, and a .313 average. As of Tuesday, he has a grand total of 32 RBI, eight dingers, 26 runs, and a .227 average in just 49 games. It's not as if he was coming off an exception year; he averaged 39 taters and 119 RBI in the five seasons previous to 2003. Delgado is set to come off the disabled list (strained ribcage muscle) this week. However, in retrospect, we wish we'd concentrated more on the red flag that was his spring-training knee injury and less on the fact that this is a contract year.

 

First Base Runner-ups: Rafael Palmeiro (Orioles), Mike Sweeney (Royals), Richie Sexson (Diamondbacks)

 

Bret Boone, 2B, Mariners Like Delgado, Boone is such a highly regarded player that his lofty draft status or high auction value is likely crippling your squad. At his current pace (.232, 11 homers, 34 RBI), Boone would be lucky to even match his 2003 first half —in which he slugged 24 round-trippers with 76 RBI, 68 runs, seven steals, and a .313 average. Such a slow start would often have us suggesting you low-ball Boone's owner, but with the Mariners in a tailspin, he could find himself surrounded by prospects before too long. A trade to a contender remains the only hope.

 

Second Base Runner-ups: Jose Reyes (Mets), Ray Durham (Giants)

 

Nomar Garciaparra, SS, Red Sox While we certainly knew about Nomar's injury before fantasy drafts, we admit we expected him to have more than just two taters, 10 RBI, and 36 total bases in early July. Worse yet, Nomar has not fit smoothly into the BoSox mix upon his return, was benched for defensive purposes in a huge game against the Yankees last week, and is the subject of swirling trade rumors. These aren't the indications of a productive second half.

 

Rafael Furcal, SS, Braves Remember when Furcal was inching into the upper echelon of fantasy shortstops? He did that on the strength of a 2003 season in which he finished third in the big leagues in runs (130) and fifth in the National League in steals (25). A .292 average with 15 ding-dongs didn't hurt, either. However, Gary Sheffield, Javy Lopez, and Vinny Castilla left Atlanta, Marcus Giles got hurt, and the Braves offense has inevitably regressed. Furcal and his .264 average are currently looking rather ordinary.

 

Shortstop Runner-ups: Edgar Renteria (Cardinals), Orlando Cabrera (Expos), Angel Berroa (Royals), Kaz Matsui (Mets)

 

Chipper Jones, 3B/OF, Braves If you had told us prior to the season that Chipper was going to return to the hot corner, we likely would have installed him as a near top-five option. That would have made his current .218 batting average even more disturbing. He has just 34 RBI on the board this season, putting him in serious jeopardy of not cracking the 100-RBI mark for the first time since 1995. With the Braves trailing three rivals in the AL East standings, it may not be the only "first time since" statistic being thrown around in Atlanta when the season comes to an end.

 

Third Base Runner-ups: Eric Chavez (Athletics), Troy Glaus (Angels), Dmitri Young (Tigers), Morgan Ensberg (Astros)

 

Sammy Sosa, OF, Cubs Given that he spent time on the disabled list, Slammin Sammy's numbers (14 bombs, 33 RBI, 30 runs, .272 average) aren't too awful, but consider that Brad Wilkerson has more homers, Reggie Sanders has more RBI, Shawn Green has scored more runs, and Jeromy Burnitz boasts a better average. Perhaps even more concerning is the fact that over the last three full seasons, his home run total has decreased by 24, his RBI sums by 57, and his average by 49 points. At this rate, that dropoff will be even more significant with the addition of this year.

 

Juan Pierre, OF, Marlins Yes, Pierre is third in the National League in steals (19), offers up a .298 average, and is on pace to shatter his career high in RBI. However, ask fantasy owners who just endured a three-week stolen-base drought if they're satisfied with their investment, and run before they find a deadly weapon. We tried to tell you that Jack McKeon put a stop to Jeff Torborg's endless green light when he took over, and sure enough, Pierre is on pace to fall well short of last season's league-leading 65 steals.

 

Magglio Ordonez, OF, White Sox It's one thing when Juan Gonzalez goes out and leaves a void in your fantasy team because he breaks a nail and sits for 12 weeks. It's another thing altogether when a high-ticket, multi-cat monster like Ordonez—who has played in at least 153 games in every season since 1998—suffers the first significant injury of his career and plays in only 42 of the team's 78 games. This stroke of bad fortune had to occur in a contract year no less. Maggs should return when the White Sox launch their second-half playoff push, and hopefully his surgically repaired knee and impending free agency won't stop him from leading one of the league's most potent lineups.

 

Outfield Runner-ups: Vernon Wells (Blue Jays), Aubrey Huff (Devil Rays), Andruw Jones (Braves), Preston Wilson (Rockies), Carl Everett (Expos), Shannon Stewart (Twins), Raul Ibanez (Royals), Austin Kearns (Reds)

 

Roy Halladay, SP, Blue Jays A 7-5 record with a 3.83 ERA constitutes a bust, you exclaim? When the dude runs away with the Cy Young award by winning 22 games, striking out 204, and recording a 3.25 ERA, you bet it does. Roy's ERA has ballooned, as has a WHIP (1.29) that stood at 1.07 at last year's end. We're not suggesting you go ahead and release the guy, but admit that so far you're none too happy about having spent $40 bucks on him at your auction.

 

Josh Beckett, SP, Marlins Beckett has had such persistent problems with blisters that one has to wonder what he's doing in his free time. The promising youngster reminds us once again how disastrous it can be to put too much stock into postseason success. (Are you listening, Jake Delhomme owners?) After Beckett baffled the Yankees in the World Series, we all seemed to forget that he'd won only 17 games in 48 starts thanks to constant health issues, and he's right on pace for another nine-win season plagued by injuries.

 

Bartolo Colon, SP, Angels What happened, Big Fella?!?!? Despite an incredible career workload and a body that screams Weight Watchers, Colon had shown no signs of slowing down in Chicago a year ago—completing nine games, winning another 15 starts, striking out 173, and compiling a 3.87 ERA. However, White Sox general manager Kenny Williams is looking like a genius after refusing to sign the 31-year-old veteran for more than three years and letting him waddle over to Anaheim for $51 million. Colon (5-8) has won just two of his last 13 starts, has allowed a league-worst 26 home runs, and sports the worst ERA of any starter in the American League.

 

Barry Zito, SP, Athletics When world-class starter Barry Zito went just 14-12 with a 3.31 ERA last season, we chalked up his lackluster season to poor run support. Now that he's off to a 4-5 start with a 4.41 ERA and 1.47 WHIP this season, we wish we'd paid greater heed to a strikeout total that decreased from 205 in 2001 to 146 in 2003. While teammates Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson have shown no signs of slowing down, it may be that Oakland's heavy reliance on their Big Three is catching up to Zito. He's thrown over 214 innings in each of his last three seasons.

 

Starting Pitcher Runner-ups: Andy Pettitte (Astros), Mike Mussina (Yankees), Kerry Wood (Cubs), Kevin Milwood (Phillies), Hideo Nomo (Dodgers), Brandon Webb (Diamondbacks)

 

Keith Foulke, RP, Red Sox Even if it's by no fault of his own, the bottom line is that Foulke has 18 fewer saves than Danny Graves. Foulke has pitched well (1.28 ERA, 13 saves, 35 strikeouts in 42 innings) when given the chance, but it's the lack of chances that are the real problem. The dream of watching Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, and Derek Lowe hand the ball off to Foulke on a regular basis has not come to fruition, and there are at least two handfuls of closers that have been more valuable.

 

Troy Percival, RP, Angels Percival has more saves than strikeouts this season, and that's not a good thing considering 19 closers have at least as many saves (13), and only one has fewer strikeouts. In addition, only two other regular stoppers have a higher ERA than his 4.79. Worse yet, Troy has spent time on the disabled list with an inflamed elbow, his fourth trip to the DL in the last five seasons. Throw in the fact that the unhittable Francisco Rodriguez is breathing down his neck, and you've got one mean recipe for retirement. We suggest you try to trade Percival before he (a) suffers another injury or (B) loses his job for poor performance.

 

Relief Pitcher Runner-ups: John Smoltz (Braves), Billy Wagner (Phillies), Jorge Julio (Orioles), Arthur Rhodes (Athletics)

[southsider2k5]

Hey that's my team?!?

[knightni]

Yeah, too bad everyone else in our league is an absentee owner.

[marsh]

first half busts on my team

morgan ensberg - i thought he would hit 35 hr's this year

orlando cabrera - just having an awful awful year

carlos delgado - injured hopefully he can come back strong

 

first half stars of my team

sean casey - picked up when dmitri young got hurt, he's been huge

carl crawford - keep it up carl!

armando benitez - same

abreu & bonds - solid years

 

i'm in fourth place of a ten team keeper league.

 

also i traded manny right before he got smoking hot for alfonso soriano, right now it doesn't look good, hopefully sori really turns it on.

[SoxFanForever]

My team would be good if I didn't have 5+ guys on the DL to start the season. Thanks Reyes and Nomar!!!

[whitesoxin']

I have five guys on the DL now. I suck in every category. I traded Aramis Rameriez for Morgan Ensberg at the beginning of the year and then dropped Garrett Anderson because Rotoworld.com said he could be out for the year. And now my most consistant player, Melvin Mora is on the DL. And how could Sidney Ponson be left off the busts list? He is 3-11 and on my team.