Vizquel probably a FA

[3E8]

You have some good points.  But how long will it be till Vizquel has a Robbie Alomar type drop off in his production? It just may happen next year. Did the Mets anticipate that when they traded for Robbie?

My main concern is Vizquel's age. If we are to rebuild the offense that Ozzie wants, let's start with young players. Vizquel may get 15-20 more hits per year than Uribe does, but Uribe has shown us loads of talent and we need to let him harness it as an everyday player.

 

The same goes for Willie. Crede I'm still unsure about. Rowand, Gload, Burke, and Davis are also good young talents. These are all perfect candidates to build our new offense around. With the relative cheapness of these players, KW can (hopefully ) get us one more stellar starting pitcher which would give the White Sox an amazing rotation.

[Guest JimH]

We should ask Cleveland if Vizquel has been a big difference maker this year.

 

Answer = yes.

[YASNY]

There is some real validity to the points you guys are presenting. But as devil's advocate, let me say that I have seen the Sox acquire guys "a year too late" countless times. I just hate to put my eggs in a basket being carried by a 38 year old shortstop.

[knightni]

Lofton did a stopover there. So did Albert Belle and the Alomar brothers, Robbie proving that chances with the White Sox are a gift that keeps on giving.

 

Shouldn't that be in green? :headshake

[beck72]

My main concern is Vizquel's age.  If we are to rebuild the offense that Ozzie wants, let's start with young players.  Vizquel may get 15-20 more hits per year than Uribe does, but Uribe has shown us loads of talent and we need to let him harness it as an everyday player. 

 

The same goes for Willie.  Crede I'm still unsure about.  Rowand, Gload, Burke, and Davis are also good young talents.  These are all perfect candidates to build our new offense around.  With the relative cheapness of these players, KW can (hopefully  ) get us one more stellar starting pitcher which would give the White Sox an amazing rotation.

If you are in favor of building around all these young guys, getting a vet like Vizquel fits in your plan. You count on the young guys to improve [crede, harris, rowand, davis, uribe] and get steady production from vets like Lee, Frank, Everett.

 

What happens if Harris tanks, and Uribe is at SS? Then the Sox have to fill a hole at 2b in the middle of the season. What happens if Uribe is the everyday SS, and he tanks? then that creates a hole. Young guys falter a lot in their 2nd or 3rd seasons [ala Crede this yr]. So getting a productive vet is good insurance

[beck72]

There is some real validity to the points you guys are presenting.  But as devil's advocate, let me say that I have seen the Sox acquire guys "a year too late" countless times.  I just hate to put my eggs in a basket being carried by a 38 year old shortstop.

I agree. But the same "all the eggs in one basket" argument also applies if the Sox give the SS job to Uribe. And Crede and Harris as well. With a vet at SS, and Uribe in the UTL role, he is 3B, SS and 2B insurance. More likely Uribe will be needed at 3B or 2B then Vizquel falling over the cliff in one yr.

[beck72]

Yes, this is the point - the Sox wouldn't be building around Vizquel, they're building around pitching.

 

Let's suppose they sign Vizquel.  If they're smart they don't count on him for 162 games at his age.  That's where Uribe comes in.  Uribe fills in at 2B too, and 3B since he's proven he can play that position this year.

 

Granted Vizquel will have a drop off at some point but he's very smart and when used correctly, can be very effective.

 

Personally, I would rather have Uribe as an insurance policy at three positions vs. giving him the full time gig at one.  He is one hell of a substitute.

Well said. Now let's go meet w/ KW!

[Hatchetman]

Look, I don't mind having the guy. We ignore the depth issue every year and it bites us every time. But if this would be our "major" improvement, I'd be rather disappointed to say the least.

 

The planning horizon for this team for the last 4 years has been one year, f*** the future... How goddam bad do we have to get before they wake up and realize this team needs major changes?

[YASNY]

OK .... I'm convinced. If we can Vizquel as a "piece to the puzzle" and he not absorb too much of our limited payroll, I'm for it.

[Chisoxfn]

I've long said, sign Omar, trade Crede for young relievers or a left handed hitting RF/CF and then let Uribe play 3B, while signing a veteran backup.

 

I like Uribe a lot and he has a lot of power, great defense, and won't be asked to be a main cog. However, there are some other cheap alternatives via FA as well. You could also keep Crede and let him and Uribe compete for 3b.

[beck72]

Look, I don't mind having the guy. We ignore the depth issue every year and it bites us every time. But if this would be our "major" improvement, I'd be rather disappointed to say the least.

 

The planning horizon for this team for the last 4 years has been one year, f*** the future... How goddam bad do we have to get before they wake up and realize this team needs major changes?

If I were a betting man, I'd wager that either PK or Lee will be traded as well [which should bring in a significant contributor tot he '05 team--Most likely PK] With Maggs, Pk/ Lee and Jose gone, those are major changes. Yet pitching will be addressed as well, both another SP and a bullpen guy or two.

 

One thing overlooked is the fact that SP and the closer situation were addressed during 2004, with Freddy, Contreras and Shingo set.

[beck72]

I've long said, sign Omar, trade Crede for young relievers or a left handed hitting RF/CF and then let Uribe play 3B, while signing a veteran backup.

 

I like Uribe a lot and he has a lot of power, great defense, and won't be asked to be a main cog.  However, there are some other cheap alternatives via FA as well.  You could also keep Crede and let him and Uribe compete for 3b.

3B could be upgraded with a midlevel FA bat, in either Bill Mueller or Corey Koskie. Both would give the Sox a different look offensively if Crede were traded. Teams may shy away from Koskie due to his injuries but the Sox would have a backup in Uribe.

 

Some way, the sox still need to add a decent everyday LH bat, even if they sign Omar. Someone who can add 15+ HRs from the Left side [like a Koskie, or via trade, like Nick Johnson].

[jackie hayes]

Vizquel will not have this good of a season next year. He's only had a couple seasons in his entire career better than this one. If we sign him and he returns to his form of the last few years, it's going to be a big let-down. That's not to say age is everything, but Vizquel has already shown a clear decline (until this one fluke year) -- so unless you think players only hit their prime at age 39, you would probably want to stay away from Omar.

 

As for defense, I don't see how anyone can argue that Vizquel is an improvement over Valentin. By any good statistical measure -- range factor, zone rating -- Valentin is a good sight better than Vizquel.

[Guest JimH]

Vizquel will not have this good of a season next year.  He's only had a couple seasons in his entire career better than this one.  If we sign him and he returns to his form of the last few years, it's going to be a big let-down.  That's not to say age is everything, but Vizquel has already shown a clear decline (until this one fluke year) -- so unless you think players only hit their prime at age 39, you would probably want to stay away from Omar.

 

As for defense, I don't see how anyone can argue that Vizquel is an improvement over Valentin.  By any good statistical measure -- range factor, zone rating -- Valentin is a good sight better than Vizquel.

I agree that Jose has better range and a better (stronger) arm, but it's just as likely you'll see decline in Valentin as well, seeing as he'll be 35 soon.

 

Vizquel gets the little things done with the bat, Valentin doesn't. This team cannot afford to have 125+ strikeouts from the SS again.

 

I value Jose's contributions but he's the team leader of a team that's done squat for 4 years running. He shouldn't take all the blame but he gets part of it. His average has been in steady decline 4 years running. His fluke year, average wise, was 2000.

 

Time for him to go, IMO. But I certainly respect his talents and I also respect the opinions of those who feel he should stay.

[Guest JimH]

3B could be upgraded with a midlevel FA bat, in either Bill Mueller or Corey Koskie. Both would give the Sox a different look offensively if Crede were traded. Teams may shy away from Koskie due to his injuries but the Sox would have a backup in Uribe.

 

Some way, the sox still need to add a decent everyday LH bat, even if they sign Omar. Someone who can add 15+ HRs from the Left side [like a Koskie, or via trade, like Nick Johnson].

That's KW's biggest dilemna, what to do with Crede. They need to get him in the lineup and give him confidence, whether they keep him or not.

 

Mueller and Koskie are good options until Josh Fields is ready. Sign one of those guys and you're replacing most of Valentin's lefthanded pop in one fell swoop.

 

It all depends what they can get for Crede. I would go for pitching and a good middle infielder prospect, ideally 2b because as you know beck I am not a fan of Willie Harris .

 

For Crede I think you can easily get a very good bullpen arm and a top prospect, whether that's another pitcher or a position player.

[beck72]

Vizquel will not have this good of a season next year.  He's only had a couple seasons in his entire career better than this one.  If we sign him and he returns to his form of the last few years, it's going to be a big let-down.  That's not to say age is everything, but Vizquel has already shown a clear decline (until this one fluke year) -- so unless you think players only hit their prime at age 39, you would probably want to stay away from Omar.

 

As for defense, I don't see how anyone can argue that Vizquel is an improvement over Valentin.  By any good statistical measure -- range factor, zone rating -- Valentin is a good sight better than Vizquel.

The numbers don't bear out your assertions that he has showed a steady decline.

 

But, given some drop off, would you take numbers like these for 2005?

 

26-2b 4-3b 5-hr 54-rbi 59-BB 60-SO 24 -SB 10 CS .275 /.341 /.359

 

 

While Omar may not repeat his current stellar 2004 numbers--2003 he was hurt, and has played virtually every game this yr--I'd take these anyday over Jose's. Jose's avg has dropped four yrs in a row, and has the most "3 pitches and your out" AB's I've ever seen in a major leaguer.

[beck72]

That's KW's biggest dilemna, what to do with Crede.  They need to get him in the lineup and give him confidence, whether they keep him or not.

 

Mueller and Koskie are good options until Josh Fields is ready.  Sign one of those guys and you're replacing most of Valentin's lefthanded pop in one fell swoop.

 

It all depends what they can get for Crede.  I would go for pitching and a good middle infielder prospect, ideally 2b because as you know beck I am not a fan of Willie Harris  .

 

For Crede I think you can easily get a very good bullpen arm and a top prospect, whether that's another pitcher or a position player.

Even looking at his minor league numbers, I doubt Crede will ever have a good OBP. And his SLG % in the minors was poor, like .440. He may hit for avg. Yet like you said, he could get some top talent in a trade [esp a young team with not a lot of cash to spend] If the Sox were serious about upgrading at 3B, a LH bat would be ideal to replace some of Jose's power.

 

But seriously get off Willie He's not going anywhere

[jackie hayes]

The numbers don't bear out your assertions that he has showed a steady decline.

 

But, given some drop off, would you take numbers like these for 2005?

 

26-2b      4-3b      5-hr        54-rbi      59-BB      60-SO  24 -SB  10 CS .275  /.341 /.359 

 

 

While Omar may not repeat his current stellar 2004 numbers--2003 he was hurt, and has played virtually every game this yr--I'd take these anyday over Jose's. Jose's avg has dropped four yrs in a row, and has the most "3 pitches and your out" AB's I've ever seen in a major leaguer.

I didn't say "steady decline", like a path down, and I wasn't looking at 2003 alone. I was looking at 2001-2003, when he had just a .330 obp overall.

 

The perception that Valentin has been in steady decline is a little misleading -- a large part of that drop in average is due to the fact that he has been used more and more against lhp. Everyone knows that Valentin should be a pure platoon player, so the only reasonable explanation seems to be that Harris is even worse against lefties than Valentin, forcing the Sox to platoon him instead.

 

I don't make that claim myself -- I don't think he's had enough abs vs lhp to tell, only 117 in his entire mlb career! But I can't think of any other explanation.

 

But if that is the case, that Willie is even weaker against lefties than Jose, I think replacing Harris would make more sense. That way, you aren't sacrificing Jose's power as well.

 

Of course, a lot of people believe Willie's speed is more valuable than Jose's power. If that's your belief, I can't refute that, although I disagree. Willie will probably end the season with 15-18 steals, 4-5 cs. The value of that, compared to the 15-20 hrs Jose would gather as a pure platoon player, seems small.

[Guest JimH]

OK, I have a solution ...

 

Let's launch both Jose and Willie and start over!

[Reddy]

I am only ok with an Omar pickup if its cheap. I agree with Yas on this one. There are other possibilities around the majors that arent 40 years old...

[witesoxfan]

I would add something, but Beck has said everything I've needed to say.

 

Vizquel is, in a nutshell, an Ozzie Guillen ballplayer. Willie Harris is a #9 hitter until he can learn how to hit consistently, get on base consistently, learn how to steal bases better, learn how to drag bunt, learn how to flat out drop one down and beat it down, and he does need to get a little pop in his bat(and I'm not talking about even double digit homer power...hell, he doesn't even need to hit 5 homers...but he needs to utilize his speed, and in order to do that, he needs to start turning singles into doubles, doubles into triples, and in rare cases, triples into homers, along with bunting, stealing, taking the extra base, and some of that he already does).

 

I'd still like to see Jose resigned to face solely RHP and hit in about 6th or 7th(because, as I have said before, whether you like Jose or not, you cannot deny what he brings to the plate against RHP...IIRC, about .255 22 50 .900 OPS...very solid numbers)...this is, of course, assuming Crede is shipped out in a deal, and Jose resigns, knowing he will have to play 3B.

[CWSGuy406]

I love the idea of aquiring Vizquel in the offseason.

 

But that still doesn't help our biggest offensive weakness: hitting vs. lefties. Outside of Aaron Rowand, we get absolutely dominated by lefties. It's odd, considering all of the righties we have right in the heart of the order, but for some reason, our team sucks vs. the lefties. Vizquel is a career .274 hitter vs. lefties, but only a .309 OBP.

 

We have enough lefties coming off the bench (though I'd like to see one in the heart of our order, a power hitter, OBP - JD Drew type, or Delgado pre-2004-type). We need a player who is able to absolutely smoke lefties. I'm absolutely sick of getting shutdown my southpaws...

[WilliamTell]

Sooner or later this team is just going to have to go with the young developement. I don't think it'll happen until Frank is gone though. This team is still on a win now stand point and that is fine.

[beck72]

But that still doesn't help our biggest offensive weakness:  hitting vs. lefties.  Outside of Aaron Rowand, we get absolutely dominated by lefties.  It's odd, considering all of the righties we have right in the heart of the order, but for some reason, our team sucks vs. the lefties.  Vizquel is a career .274 hitter vs. lefties, but only a .309 OBP.

 

We have enough lefties coming off the bench (though I'd like to see one in the heart of our order, a power hitter, OBP - JD Drew type, or Delgado pre-2004-type).  We need a player who is able to absolutely smoke lefties.  I'm absolutely sick of getting shutdown my southpaws...

Part of the struggle vs LHP is that the Sox are mostly pull conscious. They like FB's rather than off speed stuff. Most LHP who throw off speed stuff, and hit the corners vs the sox have a field day. Most of the Sox guys try and pull outside pitches. When they've tried hitting to the opposite field vs, RH or LHP, the Sox have done well.

 

This is where getting contact hitters come into play. Guys who hit the ball where its pitched, who know an outside pitch is coming and they slap it to the opposite field.

[beck72]

Sooner or later this team is just going to have to go with the young developement. I don't think it'll happen until Frank is gone though. This team is still on a win now stand point and that is fine.

The Sox are due for rookie or two who make an immediate ROY type impact , aren't they?