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I know it's early but......


NUKE_CLEVELAND

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Haha, our election's earlier than yours.  ;)  :P

We had ours in 2000 and you are just now getting around to yours ;) We are so much ahead of you. :lol:

 

Hey Nuke here's another one for you The Curse of Shrummy

 

t's a remarkable feat, but teeter-tottering John Kerry is even managing to land on both sides of the ambition issue.

 

For his entire life, he was seen as so ambitious to be president, as so eager to consort with heiresses, that it was off-putting; his St. Paul's classmates played "Hail to the Chief" on kazoos when he walked by, and in the Senate, Bob Dole mocked the Massachusetts senator's love of cameras by nicknaming him Live Shot.

 

But this summer, when that lust for power should have been coursing through his veins, Mr. Kerry grew timid and logy. He let the Bush crowd and Swift boat character assassins stomp all over him and, for the longest time, didn't fight back. He stumbled into every trap Bush Inc. set.

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Four polls with a midpoint within a day of each other.

 

Time - Bush 54, Kerry 42.

Democracy Corps - Bush 50, Kerry 47 (Dem pollster)

Zogby - Bush 47, Kerry 45

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics - Bush 47, Kerry 45.

And today's newest poll

Rasmussen - Bush 48, Kerry 45 (Rep pollster)

 

 

Which one doesn't fit the trend line?

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Four polls with a midpoint within a day of each other.

 

Time - Bush 54, Kerry 42.

Democracy Corps - Bush 50, Kerry 47 (Dem pollster)

Zogby - Bush 47, Kerry 45

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics - Bush 47, Kerry 45.

And today's newest poll

Rasmussen - Bush 48, Kerry 45 (Rep pollster)

 

 

Which one doesn't fit the trend line?

Any poll that has Bush with a 10% lead is garbage. Just ask people around, it is so divided it is crazy.

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These stats are skewed in a few ways that I can see right off the top of my head.

 

First off, they went with telephone interviews. That's not really a representative part of the population since there are many people without telephones, so their opinions are null & void.

 

The margin of error for registered voters is approximately +/-3 percentage points. The margin of error for likely voters is approximately +/- 4% points. -- So, one could feasibly swing this poll 7 points the opposite way as well using simply the margin of error.

 

Also, what were the ages of these "adults"? That can have an influence on the results.

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So when do you start calling people Anti-Semites?

I guess that must be part three of becoming a conservative . . .

 

For part two I realize that McNabb only gets press from the liberal media because he's a black quarterback.

 

I have to go buy my painkillers. Damn dealer won't deliver and I cannot trust my housekeeper anymore.

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No, it just shows if the election was today what iit may be according to poll results. It helps discount polls like the Zogby poll, I think it was, that had Bush with a 14 point lead or whatever in Mizzou. It just didn't fit the treand of other polls. The front page isn't so much what I look at, I look at the polling data from some states, because this is the first site I've seen compiling them like this.

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I guess that must be part three of becoming a conservative . . .

 

For part two I realize that McNabb only gets press from the liberal media because he's a black quarterback.

 

I have to go buy my painkillers. Damn dealer won't deliver and I cannot trust my housekeeper anymore.

I don't know when you decided that debating a topic was made more effective by mocking people, but it isn't very becoming of you. I always thought you were better than that.

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Everyone knows that polls are not completely accurate just look back to earlier this year to pre-Iowa. If someone were to say that Kerry was going to be the nominee before Iowa many people would have laughed. But I think the most interesting thing about this poll is that Bush received a bounce after the convention and still has one. Kerry barely received a bounce so that is what I find interesting.

 

Another thing, it was stated in here that because telephone interviews were used than the poll is significantly skewed. Actually that's not entirely accurate. Telephone interviews are probably the most accurate you can get when it comes to a poll. The reason for this is they are in fact very random, and one of the most random polls you can take. In-person surveys at malls or on the street are not that random. Mail surveys can prove to be the most random but they are costly and people rarely do them. Although with a phone interview, not everyone can be selected for the poll, most people without phones are below the poverty and most of the people will probably not be voting meaning these people will not significantly change the poll results.

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I don't know when you decided that debating a topic was made more effective by mocking people, but it isn't very becoming of you.  I always thought you were better than that.

Asking me when I'm going to call people anti-semites was not mocking?

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