Presidential Election

[jasonxctf]

I've been listening to all of these so-called political pundits over the past few days saying that if Kerry loses Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or New Jersey that the race is over.

 

I decided to take a look for myself on an interactive electoral college program http://www.mockelection.org/electionmap/.

 

The no-brainers have Kerry at 153 and Bush at 170 to start. Subtract Colorado because that is no longer a non-brainer for Bush.

 

Kerry's going to win Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire and Maine for sure. Bush has pretty much pulled out of these states. I'm going to safely assume that Bush wins Arizona, Missouri, Arkansas and Louisana as Kerry has done the same.

 

Right now its Kerry 206 Bush 197 with 135 votes up for contention. Winner needs 64.

 

Nevada (5)

New Mexico (5)

Colorado (9)

Iowa (7)

Wisconsin (10)

Tennessee (11)

Ohio (20)

West Virgina (5)

Pennsylvania (21)

New Jersey (15)

Florida (27)

 

Kerry can certainly lose Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Wisconsin and still win the election.. simply by picking up a Florida which carries more electoral votes than any of the above. I simply don't quite follow the logic of these so-called experts?

[southsider2k5]

In the last set of polls, Bush has a 6% lead in FL, 12% in OH, 6% in WI, 4% in NJ, 9% in TN, and 1% in PA for whatever that's worth.

 

http://electoral-vote.com/

 

I know it is volitale, but this site is interesting to track. I know someone else posted it before, but they take the latest poll in each state and use that as if it were to determine the electoral college.

 

The interesting thing is that Kerry poll numbers are starting to slip in states that had been taken for granted... For example his lead is only 4 percentage points in IL now. No one had even dreamed that IL would be close.

 

And honestly, who knows, the polls are moving around so much now, this could be completely different tommorrow.

[AngelasDaddy0427]

I don't care as long as Bush doesn't win.

If Bush wins then I think it's fair to say that the country is in a whole heap of trouble.

[Confederate_48]

I trust the electoral vote site. Whoever runs it seems like they know what their doing.

[POTUSChris]

Also, until the debates, a lot of these predictions are pretty weak. It's not so much the debate itself that will affect voters (seeing as how so many people don't even watch them). It'll be the media coverage after the debates that can have an affect. Think 2000 with the Gore/Bush debates. Gore technically won the debate but after the media emphasis on Gore's sighs and eye rolls, people began to say that Bush won the debate. I'm not saying the debates will completely change everything, I'm just saying that the post-debate time usually makes the predictions stronger and easier to believe.

[Cerbaho-WG]

Look at the Wisconsin and Ohio numbers, they were done by a Republican polling service. Before that Kerry was actually leading Wisconsin by 2-3% and was trailing in Ohio by 1-2%. I'd wait until a neutral polling service like Rasmussen/Gallup/USA Today polls the state.

[KipWellsFan]

We had our Federal election a couple of months ago, which is the Canadian equivalent of your presidential election. And the polls were showing basically a deadlock between conservatives and liberals, but when the actual election went down the liberals won substantially.

 

So I don't trust polls anymore.

[Mathew]

We had our Federal election a couple of months ago, which is the Canadian equivalent of your presidential election.  And the polls were showing basically a deadlock between conservatives and liberals, but when the actual election went down the liberals won substantially.

 

So I don't trust polls anymore.

Isn't TP Boys f***in' awesome!

[soxman352000]

I trust the electoral vote site. Whoever runs it seems like they know what their doing.

Yeah I also love the fact that it gives you an idea by saying stong Bush or Kerry or Weak Bush or Kerry. Not just Bush or Kerry. Looking at some of the % it looks like this thing could change at any minute

[KipWellsFan]

Isn't TP Boys f***in' awesome!

"Julian, this is f***ed!"

[Mathew]

"Julian, this is f***ed!"

I'm not voting for those two f***ing dicks, f***ing Bush and Kerry, what in the f***!

[Rex Kickass]

Three polls came out yesterday. One had Kerry ahead between 1 and 3 points, One had a dead even tie. Gallup had a 13 point Bush lead. Earlier this week, two other polls showed a one point lead for Bush nationally. Rasmussen tracking Poll shows Bush with a 4.3% lead, but one day after the lead was 1 percent. Tracking Poll jumps like that aren't considered significant unless the lead stays 3-5% for 3 days. (Bush could have gotten a spike from Wednesday polling). New column by Jimmy Breslin says that polls may be undercounting and reporting people who have just a cell phone and not a land line because they are much less likely to be polled. People like that tend to be younger, and traditionally would lean Democrat. Polling also does not take into consideration overseas votes from Expat citizens. If the race ends up as close as some say, these Expats voting absentee would make the difference.

 

Three things which should shape people's decisions this week but probably won't.

 

Iraq Survey Group, the people the Bush administration brought in to find the Weapons of Mass Destruction, are reporting that there just aren't any there. They are also saying that research programs were existing but have long laid dormant and were very small, although "Saddam Hussein could have ressurected them in the future." The ISG also reported that Hussein's weapons activity focused on increasing the range of ballistic missiles beyond limits set by the UN in the early 90s. As of 2003, the longest missile developed had a top range of roughly 105 miles I believe, which would have gotten the missile to nowhere of any population range in particular.

 

Intelligence reports coming out this week say that the situation is going from bad to worse. The Bush administration's own research is now suggesting that the best case scenario is a shaky security situation, the worst case is a civil war.

 

Two days after radio transmission equipment in California broke down shutting down all air traffic in Southern California, the Bush administration is proposing a cut in equipment purchases for the Federal Aviation Administration. You might recall the problems the FAA was having in the mid to late 1990s with antiquated radar systems failing, particularly in the Chicago area. It wasn't until weeks of spot system failure that the government chose to do something about aging FAA infrastructure.

 

What probably will shape the presidential debate:

Moveon.org's Quagmire ad.

 

Why? Because in today's news - Perception matters more than actual events.