Since we were talking about polls

[jasonxctf]

I saw this story on the bottom of electoral-vote.com.. interesting premise. thought you would enjoy the read.

 

Making call on sham of political polling

 

September 16, 2004

 

Anybody who believes these national political polls are giving you facts is a gullible fool.

 

Any editors of newspapers or television news shows who use poll results as a story are beyond gullible. On behalf of the public they profess to serve, they are indolent salesmen of falsehoods.

 

This is because these political polls are done by telephone. Land-line telephones, as your house phone is called.

 

The telephone polls do not include cellular phones. There are almost 169 million cell phones being used in America today - 168,900,019 as of Sept. 15, according to the cell phone institute in Washington.

 

There is no way to poll cell phone users, so it isn't done.

 

Not one cell phone user has received a call on their cell phone asking them how they plan to vote as of today.

 

Out of 168 million, anything can happen. Midway through election night, these stern-faced network announcers suddenly will be frozen white and they have to give a result:

 

"It appears that the winner of the election tonight is ... Milford J. Schmitt of New Albany, Ind. He presently has 56 percent of the vote, placing him well ahead of John Kerry, George Bush and another newcomer, Gibson D. Mills of Corvallis, Ore. It appears the nation's voting habits have been changed unbeknownst to us. Mr. Schmitt was asked what party he is in. He answered, 'The winning party.'"

 

Those who have both cell phones and land lines still might have been polled the old way - on their land lines by people making phone calls with scientifically weighted questions and to targeted areas for some big pollster. These results are announced by the pollsters: "CBS-New York Times poll shows George Bush and John Kerry in a statistical dead heat in the presidential race."

 

Beautiful. There are 169 million phones that they didn't even try. This makes the poll nothing more than a fake and a fraud, a shill and a sham. The big pollster doesn't know what he has. The television and newspaper brilliants put it out like it is a baseball score. Except not one person involved can say that they truly know what they are talking about.

 

"I don't use telephones anymore because there is no easy way to use them," John Zogby was saying yesterday. It was the 20th anniversary of the start of his polling company. He began with what he calls "blue highway polls," sheriffs' races in Onandaga and Jefferson counties in upstate New York.

 

"The people who are using telephone surveys are in denial," Zogby was saying. "It is similar to the '30s, when they first started polling by telephones and there were people who laughed at that and said you couldn't trust them because not everybody had a home phone. Now they try not to mention cell phones. They don't look or listen. They go ahead with a method that is old and wrong."

 

Zogby points out that you don't know in which area code the cell phone user lives. Nor do you know what they do. Beyond that, you miss younger people who live on cell phones. If you do a political poll on land-line phones, you miss those from 18 to 25, and there are figures all over the place that show there are 40 million between the ages of 18 and 29, one in five eligible voters.

 

And the great page-one presidential polls don't come close to reflecting how these younger voters say they might vote. The majority of them use cell phones and nobody ever asks them anything.

 

Common sense would say that the majority of the 18 to 25 who do vote would vote for the Democrat. The people who say they want to vote for Bush are generally in the older age brackets, and they don't have as much trouble with the lies told by Bush and his people. The older people also use cell phones much less because they can't hear on the things and when trying to dial a number on these midget instruments they stand there for an hour and get nothing done. The young people on cell phones appear not to be listening and they hear every syllable. They punch out a number without looking.

 

They are quicker, and probably smarter at this time, and almost doubtlessly more in favor of Kerry than Bush.

 

Older people complain about Kerry's performance as a candidate. Younger people don't want to get shot at in a war that most believe, and firmly, never should have started because it was started with a president lying.

 

Zogby has no opinion because he is a professional figure man and he has no figures he trusts.

 

"I am making a segue into Internet polling, which is going to be the future," he was saying yesterday. "You use screened e-mails of hundreds of thousands. Every household has some chance of being polled. How can you not do it that way? I have three children. The one in Washington uses only a cell phone. The ones at home use cell phones."

 

If you want a poll on the Kerry-Bush race, sit down and make up your own. It is just as good as the monstrous frauds presented on television and the newspaper first pages.

[southsider2k5]

Interesting article, but they missed a lot of obvious stuff on socioeconomic relationships dealing with cell phones too. Poor people don't tend to have them. Poorer people tend to have landlines instead of having cell phones. The poorest of people have neither. So where does the balance lie, who knows?

 

Also this point....

 

If you do a political poll on land-line phones, you miss those from 18 to 25, and there are figures all over the place that show there are 40 million between the ages of 18 and 29, one in five eligible voters.

 

...Is completely misleading. Yeah there are 40 million "eligible" voters there. What they don't tell you is that the highlighted age bracket is by far the lowest percentage of turnout at the polls. Young people don't vote when compared to those same older people.

 

I would be interested to see a correlative figure between the number of people in the age group who are contactable and the number who will vote.

 

An interesting article, but not nearly deep enough for someone who is trying to make a deep point.

[jasonxctf]

keeping with the same idea, I wondered about polling college kids at all. These guys just moved into the dorms a few weeks ago.. are they being called at all? How would they know the number?

 

Also do DO NOT CALL registries apply here too?

[Gene Honda Civic]

Those people who get polled are those stupid enough not to hang up on the damn pollster wasting their time...

 

It's like Jury duty.

[jasonxctf]

yeah at this point, you've got 10 companies polling these battleground states like Iowa (Population 1.2 million) a week, each with 1000+ respondents.

 

That's 10,000 people a week getting blitzed with these calls!!!

[jasonxctf]

correction Iowa's population is 2.9 million. I meant to say New Hampshire's population is 1.2 million.