Sabermetrics

[Chisoxfn]

Alright, I just want to get an idea if you buy into sabermatrics, aka the Billy Beane concept. DePodesta in LA, Rippaldi in Toronto, and Theo Epstein are a few of the other sabermetric guys I can think of that are GM's in baseball.

 

And as far as I'm concerned, all pretty much rank up their as the better gm's in baseball. I know some would question having Rippaldi on that list (I know I botched the spelling), but to me he's done a good job in Toronto (although this was an extremely tough year) dispite being very strapped by ownership and I do think Toronto is semi close to being competitive, although its highly doubtful they will win in that division with the BoSox and Yanks very competitive at this point in time.

 

Now I don't consider KW one of these type of GM's. However, their are a lot of things I like about KW. What does kill me is Ozzie's pretty much utter stupidity in regards to certain players. I understand that statistics can't measure everything and that their are nuances and what not to the game. Hell, thats one of my favorite things about baseball.

 

But at the same time, you'd be stupid not to look into certain stastisticts to evaluate a player and make decisions on the future of your ball club. Stats can also be used to find a player thats undervalued or not wanted that could have the potential to break through. Some of their secondary stats may prove that and what not.

 

I respect the fact that Ozzie wants hard working, good baseball players and I differ heavily from the sabermetrics point of view in regards to base stealing and bunting because I think their are other things that play into account during those situations at certain times...especially when your going up against an ace pitcher or just need one run to potentially win or tie the game.

 

However, when it comes down to just hyping a player because they can only do the little things...WELL Thats freaking stupid. Hell, its incredibly stupid. Case #1 and Cheat has definately talked about this the most, but Timo Perez.

 

What the hell is this guy starting as much as he is. He has a s***ty average, a s***ty OBP, and is a poor outfielder. He has poor range and lazy fundementals and a good arm. He is a good bunter and a semi smart player and has had some clutch hits. I don't have a problem with him being used ocassionally off the bench, but for him to play as much as he does is stupid and I sure as hell hope the Sox don't plan on him being an ultra contributor in the future.

 

Point #2, Jose Valentin. He should not be playing. He sucks...horrible stats, unwillingness to adjust his swing, etc. Not sure where Ozzie stands in regards to him now.

 

In general though, I see Ozzie heavily basically ignoring some very important stats like OBP and OPS and just basically going for Ozzie type of players with speed and the ability to bunt. Well that don't cut it, you still need guys that produce. If you can get speed with them, then hell ya you do it and everyteam needs a couple of those guys, but I think ozzie is blind to that. Hell, I think in his world he thinks a team of 9 ozzie's and a good pitching staff would win the series, when it fact it would be the worse offensive team in the history of baseball.

 

Anyway, the main thing I want to see from the Sox this offseason is a definate long term plan and a much better system of developing prospects, mainly once they get to the major league level cause they need drastic help when it comes to handling them properly upon promotion to Chicago, imo. I also want to see someone tell Ozzie to shut the hell up at times and I'd really like to see Kenny have an assistant or two, look into the stats and what not, it can't hurt.

[qwerty]

Alright, I just want to get an idea if you buy into sabermatrics, aka the Billy Beane concept.  DePodesta in LA, Rippaldi in Toronto, and Theo Epstein are a few of the other sabermetric guys I can think of that are GM's in baseball. 

 

And as far as I'm concerned, all pretty much rank up their as the better gm's in baseball.  I know some would question having Rippaldi on that list (I know I botched the spelling), but to me he's done a good job in Toronto (although this was an extremely tough year) dispite being very strapped by ownership and I do think Toronto is semi close to being competitive, although its highly doubtful they will win in that division with the BoSox and Yanks very competitive at this point in time.

 

Now I don't consider KW one of these type of GM's.  However, their are a lot of things I like about KW.  What does kill me is Ozzie's pretty much utter stupidity in regards to certain players.  I understand that statistics can't measure everything and that their are nuances and what not to the game.  Hell, thats one of my favorite things about baseball.

 

But at the same time, you'd be stupid not to look into certain stastisticts to evaluate a player and make decisions on the future of your ball club.  Stats can also be used to find a player thats undervalued or not wanted that could have the potential to break through.  Some of their secondary stats may prove that and what not. 

 

I respect the fact that Ozzie wants hard working, good baseball players and I differ heavily from the sabermetrics point of view in regards to base stealing and bunting because I think their are other things that play into account during those situations at certain times...especially when your going up against an ace pitcher or just need one run to potentially win or tie the game. 

 

However, when it comes down to just hyping a player because they can only do the little things...WELL Thats freaking stupid.  Hell, its incredibly stupid.  Case #1 and Cheat has definately talked about this the most, but Timo Perez.

 

What the hell is this guy starting as much as he is.  He has a s***ty average, a s***ty OBP, and is a poor outfielder.  He has poor range and lazy fundementals and a good arm.  He is a good bunter and a semi smart player and has had some clutch hits.  I don't have a problem with him being used ocassionally off the bench, but for him to play as much as he does is stupid and I sure as hell hope the Sox don't plan on him being an ultra contributor in the future.

 

Point #2, Jose Valentin.  He should not be playing.  He sucks...horrible stats, unwillingness to adjust his swing, etc.  Not sure where Ozzie stands in regards to him now. 

 

In general though, I see Ozzie heavily basically ignoring some very important stats like OBP and OPS and just basically going for Ozzie type of players with speed and the ability to bunt.  Well that don't cut it, you still need guys that produce.  If you can get speed with them, then hell ya you do it and everyteam needs a couple of those guys, but I think ozzie is blind to that.  Hell, I think in his world he thinks a team of 9 ozzie's and a good pitching staff would win the series, when it fact it would be the worse offensive team in the history of baseball. 

 

Anyway, the main thing I want to see from the Sox this offseason is a definate long term plan and a much better system of developing prospects, mainly once they get to the major league level cause they need drastic help when it comes to handling them properly upon promotion to Chicago, imo.  I also want to see someone tell Ozzie to shut the hell up at times and I'd really like to see Kenny have an assistant or two, look into the stats and what not, it can't hurt.

Toronto's gm you were thinking of is j.p. ricarddi. Also i absolutely love sabremetrics. Like you said kw really does really need some assistants that do nothing but stats.

[jackie hayes]

I voted yes, I'm a big fan of using more statistics. But of course I'm sceptical about some standard sabermetric stats.

 

I also would demur on Valentin somewhat. I still think he's useful as a platoon slugger -- his ops against righties is okay -- it's too bad he hasn't been used that way. Slugging pct is still an important stat, even if it's less important than obp.

[Cerbaho-WG]

I respect the fact that Ozzie wants hard working, good baseball players and I differ heavily from the sabermetrics point of view in regards to base stealing and bunting because I think their are other things that play into account during those situations at certain times...especially when your going up against an ace pitcher or just need one run to potentially win or tie the game.

 

Basic 3x8 tables of thousands upon thousands of games, as well as linear weights, have shown that a man on first with nobody out has a higher chance to score than a man on 2nd with one out.

 

But don't mention that to Hawk or KW, they'll just come up with some witty phrase that shows how ignorant they are to certain aspects of the game.

[Chisoxfn]

Basic 3x8 tables of thousands upon thousands of games, as well as linear weights, have shown that a man on first with nobody out has a higher chance to score than a man on 2nd with one out.

 

But don't mention that to Hawk or KW, they'll just come up with some witty phrase that shows how ignorant they are to certain aspects of the game.

I agree with that at times, but at other times you may have a crappy hitter or two coming up to the point that moving a guy over and hoping for just one hit in two outs is better then expecting your crappy hitters two get two hits to score the guy from first.

 

Also, late in a game, you need that run to win the game, and you got a good bunter up and a solid hitter or two on deck, then I say move that runner over and try to execute..especially when its like a leadoff double. I think anytime you get a leadoff double, you should score a run. Move the guy over (not necessarily with a bunt, but by hitting the ball towards rf) and go from there. Sure it doesn't always happen and I understand it, but I really have no sympathy for when a guy is on 3rd and less than two outs and the run doesn't score. Sometimes you just need that run more so then trying to get multiple runs and you end up sacrificing yourself just to score that run.

 

However, I'm 100% convinced that Ozzie has no idea what sabermetrics is and that if left to him (in terms of player personell decisions) this team would suck. However, in regards to certain players, I definately trust his opinion. I also stick to my guns that he's a lousy manager thus far this year. I've been baffled by some of his lineup decisions and what not. More importantly I've been baffled at all his stupid ass comments and assaults on his players. I think its bulls*** to show up a player with a quote in the media and he does it way too often. I'd rather see you keep those matters in house, except in very specific situation where the ocassional horrible quote can be used as motivation for a player. However, Ozzie does it so freaking much that it can't possibly be motivating.

 

I just hope Ozzie has that ability to get the absolute most out of his players cause if he doesn't, he will cost the Sox a lot of games and I'll only hope they have so much talent that they are able to overcome it. I have the same opinions on Baker, however Baker is absolutely way too nice to his players to the point that he absolutely babies him...especially Sosa and what not. He basically says how amazing his players are all the time in the media.

 

I say give credit when deserved and if your gonna knock a guy, just shutup, no comment, and talk to your player. To me, I'd think they'd respect that a hell of a lot more and when the players respect you, they'll play even harder.

 

And as far as Hawk and DJ go, I respect them for somethings, but especially in regards to Hawk he is just way to closed minded in baseball. Things have changed and people have new tools for evaluating players..tools on top of the old school scouting scales and what not. You gotta adjust with time and Hawk just goes on his rants about how those type of people don't know beans about baseball and what not. Hell, i remember his rant on how fans were idiots essentially...although he said he meant it as the baseball writers. Still, I thought that was a real cheap shot, considering the greatness of his tenure as GM. I like a lot of things about Hawk, but these are things I just flat out don't like.

[Gene Honda Civic]

I stradle the line... It's obvious that you can build a good team by carefully evaluating the stats. And I have bought in to the philosophy that you really shouldn't be giving away outs..

 

But I don't think you should take the game out of your managers hands...Mahka in oakland makes pitching changes and that is about it.

 

A perfect situation for me would be to have a Billy Beane type GM w/ Scocia as manager.

[Chisoxfn]

I stradle the line... It's obvious that you can build a good team by carefully evaluating the stats.  And I have bought in to the philosophy that you really shouldn't be giving away outs.. 

 

But I don't think you should take the game out of your managers hands...Mahka in oakland makes pitching changes and that is about it. 

 

A perfect situation for me would be to have a Billy Beane type GM w/ Scocia as manager.

A year ago I'd of agreed with you on Scioscia, but now I have absolutely no faith in him. To me he's managed Anaheim into the ground this year with the way he's handled that pitching staff. I don't have much problems with the way he runs the offense, in fact I like it, but for a catcher he does an awful job with the pitchers, imo.

 

However, he's definately had injuries and other things hinder him, but I've seen a lot more negative out of him this year then I had in previous years.

 

I should add, I definately not an "its all about stats" person. I think you should take into account both factors. With an offensive player I look at their stats and see things and then also look at their defensive ability, speed, and potential to grow (which is definately scouting related) and I think thats a pretty good balance. With pitchers, you look at the whip, k's, k/bb and of course ERA to a point. I rarely look at W/L although inning pitched and what not are important because you see how they hold up and what not. To go along with it, you look at their stuff and try to project where they will be.

 

I also vehemently disagree with Beane's "MoneyBall" draft, I think it was one of the most overhyped drafts ever. And drafting guys 20 rounds earlier then they are slotted is just STUPID...at least in the early rounds. Tell me all you want about affordability, if they wanted to take a reach they could of still gotten those mega reaches in the 5th and 6th rounds while reaching on 2nd/3rd round talent in the 1st round and sandwich rounds.

 

At least they got Swisher though...he seems like he's got the shot to be a keeper.

[winninguglyin83]

I also vote for a balance. It's hardly a coincidence that the As can make a go of it with guys like Hatteberg and Eric Byrnes and Chad Bradford and Mecir and Rincon while losing Giambi, Tejada, Damon, Koch (good in his year there) and Foulke.

 

The guy knows how to put a team together. He is blessed with stud starting pitching, but he's definitely on to something by the way he forms his offense.

 

The White Sox need more guys who know how to get on base (namely draw walks), less reliance on the HR and something to break up the heavy, slow legs in the middle of the order.

 

They also need to fix 40-to-50 percent of the starting rotation and upgrade middle relief.

 

My problem with KW remains the same: I think he gives up too much in trades and that he doesn't really have a plan. What kind of team is he trying to build and who are the foundation players? Does he really believe that Joe Borchard is untouchable?

 

I'm not sure. And I don't think he is either.

[qwerty]

My problem with KW remains the same: I think he gives up too much in trades and that he doesn't really have a plan. What kind of team is he trying to build and who are the foundation players? Does he really believe that Joe Borchard is untouchable?

 

I'm not sure. And I don't think he is either.

Why could we have not given them borchard some how instead of reed. So far reed is hitting .448 and has an obp of .484 in 29 at-bats. He has half the amount of hits (13) that borchard has in 42 less games.

[Gene Honda Civic]

A year ago I'd of agreed with you on Scioscia, but now I have absolutely no faith in him.  To me he's managed Anaheim into the ground this year with the way he's handled that pitching staff.  I don't have much problems with the way he runs the offense, in fact I like it, but for a catcher he does an awful job with the pitchers, imo.

I'll definetly have to take your word for it... I don't get to watch near the number of games that you do... I've seen at least part of 141 of the 151 Sox games played this season(it's sad that I know that), but I've seen a total of maybe 12 Angels games. It just seems to me that whereas ozzie is bunting and giving away outs seemingly without discretion, Socia has a much better feel for the offensive aspects of the game, and knows when it's condusive to give up an out for 1-run instead of keeping it in the bank in hopes for more runs. I haven't seen him enough to know what he's done to the pitching staff.

Edited September 23, 2004 by The Cheat

[DBAHO]

I voted yes. To me Beane, Riccardi, and DePodesta are 3 of the better GM's in baseball right now. Of course Beane has been lucky with the big 3 Mulder, Hudson and Zito as well. Stats are very important when you look at the makeup of your team, but you should also look at how consistent those stats are for players over each month from year to year. And you can't let stats become your #1 focus and make all of your decisions based on that. Perfect example is D'Angelo Jimenez, sure he posted pretty good numbers for a 2B / SS while he was here, but he was a clubhouse cancer and lazy.

[3E8]

Like you said kw really does really need some assistants that do nothing but stats.

I want that job.

 

By the way, do you guys really think Paul has done that well in LA?

[qwerty]

I want that job.

That would be sweet.

[Gene Honda Civic]

I want that job.

 

By the way, do you guys really think Paul has done that well in LA?

I keep sending KW links to my blog in hopes that he chooses me

 

As for podesta, his first real decisions were the trade deadline ones... So it's way too early to grade him...

 

Let's see what he does with his first off-season.

[DBAHO]

How many teams in the MLB would use assistants to the GM to look at nothing but stats though. You'd think most teams would. With the success of Beane in Oakland, I think more teams are starting to come around stats wise.

[YASNY]

It think it should be used as just one more of many tools used to evaluate players. I certainly don't think it's "GM's Holy Grail".

[3E8]

I think Flash T told me KW went to Princeton. Maybe he's too pompous to admit he could use some help!

[YASNY]

I think Flash T told me KW went to Princeton.  Maybe he's too pompous to admit he could use some help!

I think it was Stanford.

[qwerty]

I think it was Stanford.

You would be correct.

[southsider2k5]

I stand in the middle on this. I think we could use somemore of the mathematical analysis in our system, but it is no substitute for common sense and game situations either.

[Hatchetman]

joe borchard went to stanford too. does that qualify him to be gm?

[southsider2k5]

joe borchard went to stanford too. does that qualify him to be gm?

If you ever have listened to, or talked to Joe Borchard, you would understand the guy is incredibly smart, both in baseball and life. The hitting clinic I heard him give a few years back at Soxfest was the best clinic I have ever seen anyone give. He knows his history, he knows his technique, he knows his mentors. I have no doubt the kid could be a hitting coach. GM, who knows.

[Hatchetman]

maybe he should stop thinking so hard.

[southsider2k5]

maybe he should stop thinking so hard.

That has been his problem all along. He needs to relax.

[Texsox]

Many times the stats proved the managers gut. You cannot factor in the human element into a spread sheet. I've also come to dislike almost all pitch hitting. Seems like a guy coming in cold doesn't do all that well.