Which FA SP Should the Sox Target

[babybearhater]

His era is what a full run lower than woods. His era is ridiculous that is the only reason he has won 15. If his era was a full run higher he would be lucky to win 10.

So if Kerry Wood was better, than he would have won 15 games??? thats exactly my point. Even on a terrible last place team, a good pitcher can win 15 games. On a decent to good team, Wood cant even achieve that.

 

And clement has the high ERA and the terrible win percentage on a playoff contender, in the national league, no thanks

[witesoxfan]

Kerry Wood's run support: 4.66 per game

Randy Johnson's run support: 3.86 per game

 

Wood's run support - ERA = 1.08

Johnson's run support - ERA = 1.21

 

You also have to consider that Wood has been hurt for part of this year, so you have to take that into account when considering his wins.

 

So basically, offense cannot be used to argue for either one...they've both been given roughly the same amount of run support per game.

 

 

Also...just for my take on this...I do not think Wood will ever win 20 games until he learns to maintain some type of consistent control, and that will never happen. When you throw that many wasted pitches, you will not throw deep into games most of the time, which will give your bullpen a much better chance of blowing games. He will never consistently win a lot of games.

 

Not saying he is a bad pitcher...I'm saying he will never win a lot of games.

[ZoomSlowik]

So if Kerry Wood was better, than he would have won 15 games??? thats exactly my point.  Even on a terrible last place team, a good pitcher can win 15 games.  On a decent to good team, Wood cant even achieve that.

 

And clement has the high ERA and the terrible win percentage on a playoff contender, in the national league, no thanks

One problem with that argument: the Cubs are a decent to good team almost entirely because of their starting pitching. Their bullpen and offense have both had major issues the last few years. He had 14 wins last year despite a mostly inconsistent offense and several blown leads by the pen. I don't care where you are, what park you play in, or what league you play in, and ERA under 3.30 is pretty impressive, and he definitely should have had at least 15 wins last year. Prior was ridiculously good last year and only won 18 on the Cubs(missed a couple of starts but a lot of pitchers do. Still had 30). Wood might not be an ace, but he is a well above average pitcher when healthy(yeah, I know that is an issue). As for who is the real ace of that staff, you can debate several guys depending on the year. Prior certainly was the ace last year, Zambrano clearly was this year. That isn't any different than Oakland, with Zito and Mulder having Cy Young awards and Hudson pitching well. I'd gladly take Prior, Wood, or Zambrano, but Clement just seems too inconsistent.

 

Just for comparison, Tim Hudson had 15 and 16 wins in his two best ERA seasons, but won 20 when his ERA was almost 1.5 runs higher.

[SoxAce]

I love Odalis Perez. I'll take him in a heartbeat.

[CWSGuy406]

I'm real iffy on Clement. Earlier in the year, I was on his bandwagon, but with his recent injury - plus the amount of breaking pitches he throws, I really don't want to pay him a lot of money.

 

I think Pedro and Pavano will get the biggest bucks on the market this winter (well, duh). Perez, IMHO, is the pitcher we should go after. I'd like to have two lefties in this rotation, with all of the left handed hitters that are coming through this division (Kubel, Mauer, Morneau, Hafner, Martinez).

 

Buehrle, Garcia, Perez, Contreras, and Garland would be pretty solid - and if Garland/Contreras were to continue there inconsistency through next season, I think that Felix Diaz would be a viable replacement - if used properly, not on three days rest or ten days rest.

 

 

But I've been preaching this for awhile now - we can have all of the good starters we want - and it won't mean jack-s*** unless we have a bullpen worth a damn behind them. Teams with good bullpens, good starting pitching, and consistent lineups win the Title.

[jackie hayes]

In looking at some likely FA Starting pitchers, I was checking which ones would be the best fit for the Sox, considering who the Sox have now and the Cell. The pitcher should throw a lot of quality starts, have a good GB/ FB ratio, not give up a lot of BB's, get a lot of K's, have a low ERA, and have a low BAA. So I compared 7 names in these categories:

1 -% of Quality starts

2- gb/ fb

3-SO/ 9

4--BB/ 9

5--ERA

6--BAA

 

Based on Wed. sports weekly stats, I compared 7 likely FA SP: Odalis Perez; Matt Clement; Russ Ortiz; Carl Pavano; Jon Lieber [has a big option NY should decline]; Brad Radke and Derek Lowe. [i didn't include Pedro because either Bos. will res-sign him or he'll go the NY]

 

I gave them each a number 1-7 for each category, and added the total.

 

So which pitcher came out on top? Here's how they totalled.

1. Odalis Perez- 17 [interesting enough, he didn't come in 1st in any categ, and I didn't include his 8 IP w/ 1 ER on Wed]

2. Carl Pavano -18

3. Brad Radke -20

3. Matt Clement -20

5. Jon Lieber -29

6. Russ Ortiz -31

7. Derek Lowe -32

 

I'm sure people can guess which categories the pitchers did well and poorly in. I'll

answer questions from whoever about the numbers though if anyone has questions.

This is neat. If you have the numbers handy still, could you put down the rankings in each category? Something like...

 

Perez 2 3 4 5 4 3

Pavano 1 4 3 7 6 5

Clement 5 2 etc.

 

Just curious.

[beck72]

This is neat.  If you have the numbers handy still, could you put down the rankings in each category?  Something like...

 

Perez 2 3 4 5 4 3

Pavano 1 4 3 7 6 5

Clement 5 2 etc.

 

Just curious.

 

QS

1. Pavano 73% 30/22

1. Radke 73% 34/ 24

3. Perez 68% 31/ 21

4. Lieber 62% 26/ 16

5. Clement 60% 30/ 18

6. Ortiz 58% 33/ 19

7 Lowe 39% 31/ 12

 

GB/ FB

1. Lowe 3.31

2. Perez 1.68

3. Clement 1.41

4. Lieber 1.37

5. Pavano 1.31

6. Radke 1.02

7. Ortiz 1.01

 

SO/ 9

1. Clement 9.45

2. Ortiz 6.42

3. Radke 5.91

4. Perez 5.83

5. Pavano 5.68

6. Lowe 5.20

7. Lieber 5.11

 

bb/ 9

1. Lieber 0.95

2. Radke 1.01

3. Perez 2.01

4. Pavano 2.05

5. Lowe 3.43

6. Clement 3.68

7. Ortiz 4.96

 

ERA

1. Pavano 3.05

2. Perez 3.35

3. Radke 3.48

4. Clement 3.68

5. Ortiz 4.19

6. Lieber 4.37

7. Lowe 5,25

 

BAA

1. Clement .229

2. Pavano .252

3 Perez .253

4 Ortiz .258

5 Radke .265

6 Lowe .293

7. Lieber .298

[jackie hayes]

Thanks!

[beck72]

I'm real iffy on Clement.  Earlier in the year, I was on his bandwagon, but with his recent injury - plus the amount of breaking pitches he throws, I really don't want to pay him a lot of money.

 

I think Pedro and Pavano will get the biggest bucks on the market this winter (well, duh).  Perez, IMHO, is the pitcher we should go after.  I'd like to have two lefties in this rotation, with all of the left handed hitters that are coming through this division (Kubel, Mauer, Morneau, Hafner, Martinez). 

 

Buehrle, Garcia, Perez, Contreras, and Garland would be pretty solid - and if Garland/Contreras were to continue there inconsistency through next season, I think that Felix Diaz would be a viable replacement - if used properly, not on three days rest or ten days rest. 

 

 

But I've been preaching this for awhile now - we can have all of the good starters we want - and it won't mean jack-s*** unless we have a bullpen worth a damn behind them.  Teams with good bullpens, good starting pitching, and consistent lineups win the Title.

If Clement is healthy, he'd be decent. But Perez should be the guy for the sox to get. I thought the Sox should have went after him in the offseason. Maybe Ozzie and Co. will have some influence in Odalis coming this way.

 

I can see the Sox trading for some bullpen help. Besides Benetiz and Felix Rodriguez, its slim pickings. But its a definite need.

[beck72]

Thanks!

No problem. That's why i always liked Sports weekly for their stats

[witesoxfan]

If someone could find it, I'd like to see what these guys park adjusted ERA's are.

 

I thought I like just saw it somewhere, but I can't seem to find it anymore

[Gene Honda Civic]

If someone could find it, I'd like to see what these guys park adjusted ERA's are.

 

I thought I like just saw it somewhere, but I can't seem to find it anymore

If you know where to find such a thing definitely link it... I've been doing some dirty park-adjusted ERA's, nuetralizing the pitchers home park, using the ESPN park factor info, but it's tedious, and a bit too volitile the way I've been doing it. (which is proper in theory, but going on park numbers for just one season doesn't seem fair)(though for the new USCF i think that's the only choice)

[Soxfest]

In looking at some likely FA Starting pitchers, I was checking which ones would be the best fit for the Sox, considering who the Sox have now and the Cell. The pitcher should throw a lot of quality starts, have a good GB/ FB ratio, not give up a lot of BB's, get a lot of K's, have a low ERA, and have a low BAA. So I compared 7 names in these categories:

1 -% of Quality starts

2- gb/ fb

3-SO/ 9

4--BB/ 9

5--ERA

6--BAA

 

Based on Wed. sports weekly stats, I compared 7 likely FA SP: Odalis Perez; Matt Clement; Russ Ortiz; Carl Pavano; Jon Lieber [has a big option NY should decline]; Brad Radke and Derek Lowe. [i didn't include Pedro because either Bos. will res-sign him or he'll go the NY]

 

I gave them each a number 1-7 for each category, and added the total.

 

So which pitcher came out on top? Here's how they totalled.

1. Odalis Perez- 17 [interesting enough, he didn't come in 1st in any categ, and I didn't include his 8 IP w/ 1 ER on Wed]

2. Carl Pavano -18

3. Brad Radke -20

3. Matt Clement -20

5. Jon Lieber -29

6. Russ Ortiz -31

7. Derek Lowe -32

 

I'm sure people can guess which categories the pitchers did well and poorly in. I'll

answer questions from whoever about the numbers though if anyone has questions.

Pavano is going to hit his stride

[YASNY]

Of those 7 pitchers, the one that I believe would give you more bang for your buck is .... Jon Leiber. He will be a full two years from that surgery when the season starts and will be back to the pitcher he was. It's a gamble, but it should be a low risk, high reward type of gamble.

 

Perez, however, would nicely fit into our rotation.

[beck72]

In thinking about which FA pitcher the Sox should get [or via trade] the Sox need a consistent pitcher who can give them a QS virtually every time out. Why?Because Garland and Contreras are very erratic. Garland has only had 15 QS in 32 GS [47%] and Contreras only 12 in 29 GS [41%]. Buehrle has had 23 in 35 GS [66%] and Freddy 17 in 30 GS [57%]

 

Having another SP who can go deep into games [at least the 6th and 7th innings] will keep the bullpen fresh. JC and JG may still be erratic in 2005. So getting another solid, dependable SP is critical.

[israel4ever]

I would go: 1) Pavano...cuz he's the most talented

2) Radke...taking him from Minny is a bonus

3) Perez

[beck72]

I would go: 1) Pavano...cuz he's the most talented

                2) Radke...taking him from Minny is a bonus

                3) Perez

Getting any one of those 3 guys would make the sox tough to beat

[WSoxShuf]

Radke would be a great number 3.

[beck72]

Radke would be a great number 3.

I think Ozzie would love to have a RH version of Mark Buehrle. But I think Minn will re-sign him.

[WSoxShuf]

I think Ozzie would love to have a RH version of Mark Buehrle. But I think Minn will re-sign him.

does minny have the money to sign him???

 

come tot he darkside Brad.

[beck72]

does minny have the money to sign him???

 

come tot he darkside Brad.

Minn will probably have money to resign two of these 3: Radke, Guzman [a $5 mill option] or Koskie. Radke is probably 1st on their list, as they have options at 3rd and SS.

[SoxWatcher]

Minn will probably have money to resign two of these 3: Radke, Guzman [a $5 mill option] or Koskie. Radke is probably 1st on their list, as they have options at 3rd and SS.

You're probably right that they can afford to sign one or two of those. Radke probably is at the top of the list. If they pick up Guzman's option at $5 million, then Ryan isn't as smart as I think he is.

[JoshPR]

In looking at some likely FA Starting pitchers, I was checking which ones would be the best fit for the Sox, considering who the Sox have now and the Cell. The pitcher should throw a lot of quality starts, have a good GB/ FB ratio, not give up a lot of BB's, get a lot of K's, have a low ERA, and have a low BAA. So I compared 7 names in these categories:

1 -% of Quality starts

2- gb/ fb

3-SO/ 9

4--BB/ 9

5--ERA

6--BAA

 

Based on Wed. sports weekly stats, I compared 7 likely FA SP: Odalis Perez; Matt Clement; Russ Ortiz; Carl Pavano; Jon Lieber [has a big option NY should decline]; Brad Radke and Derek Lowe. [i didn't include Pedro because either Bos. will res-sign him or he'll go the NY]

 

I gave them each a number 1-7 for each category, and added the total.

 

So which pitcher came out on top? Here's how they totalled.

1. Odalis Perez- 17 [interesting enough, he didn't come in 1st in any categ, and I didn't include his 8 IP w/ 1 ER on Wed]

2. Carl Pavano -18

3. Brad Radke -20

3. Matt Clement -20

5. Jon Lieber -29

6. Russ Ortiz -31

7. Derek Lowe -32

 

I'm sure people can guess which categories the pitchers did well and poorly in. I'll

answer questions from whoever about the numbers though if anyone has questions.

Pavano, Radke.

 

I wouldn't mind looking into Derek Lowe Cheap. Groundball pitcher that this Park needs. Now is our D good Enough for a ground ball pitcher?

[SoxWatcher]

Pavano, Radke.

 

I wouldn't mind looking into Derek Lowe Cheap. Groundball pitcher that this Park needs. Now is our D good Enough for a ground ball pitcher?

Pavano would be great. But, I doubt the Sox are going to get the most coveted FA pitcher. The Yankees need him and the Yankees get what they want. If one is realistically looking at what the Sox might end up getting (if they go after a FA starter at all...you know how KW loves trades), Lowe is more likely. His numbers haven't been great, so he won't get premium money. He's not a great starter, but at least he has a penchant for groundballs, and maybe he'll give up fewer homers than Judy.

[beck72]

Doesn't look like Chicago will be on his short list of teams------the Cell's not exactly a pitcher's park now is it?

*********************************************************

 

Sun Sentinel

Pavano not tipping his hand on future plans

 

By Juan C. Rodriguez

Staff Writer

Posted October 1 2004

 

PHILADELPHIA · Maybe it's a defense mechanism. Maybe Carl Pavano is just trying to accustom himself to the notion of pitching elsewhere next season to diminish the disappointment if it happens.

 

Whatever the reason, Pavano has changed his tone about his pending free agency. Before Thursday's game in Philadelphia, Pavano did not mention any sense of loyalty to the Marlins as he did earlier this season. He didn't echo earlier sentiments that remaining here was his first choice.

 

"I really don't have a preference to tell you the truth," said Pavano, who on Thursday was named the team's Most Improved Player for a second straight season by the South Florida Chapter of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA). "I don't know if that's it [with the Marlins], but that's the reality. I don't think you get your mind set on either one."

 

Pavano did reiterate he wants to play for a team that will field a solid defensive unit behind him in a pitcher-friendly park. Ideally, he would like to remain in the National League.