Based on comments in the papers

[Guest JimH]

For the last 3-4 weeks, I've been closely watching what Guillen and Williams have had to say about various players. While it's not always wise to take these comments 100% to heart, it's fun to read between the lines a bit and try to determine who they'll keep and who is on the way out.

 

And the more I look at things, the more I sense there will NOT be wholesale changes, just a few faces being changed, but at critical positions.

 

I also see the Sox adding guys via free agency.

 

Here's some of the guys we've all been talking about, and my take on what they'll do with them ... and why.

 

Let's start with Crede.

 

Crede = Ozzie feels he had too high of an expectation for Crede. Walker thinks Crede has learned quite a bit in '04 and sees a big year for him. KW hasn't said much, other than he thinks Crede is still young and has potential. My take is they'll keep Crede because he's solid defensively and while he probably won't ever be a .300 hitter, they feel he can at least improve to .260 or so.

 

Valentin = He gone. Guillen has not gone out of his way to praise Jose, although he's rightfully been somewhat reluctant to criticize a guy who's been team leader and is very highly regarded for his efforts by management. KW hasn't said much about Valentin, other than he wants to tweak the team to get higher OBP guys. You can't get a much lower OBP than Jose, unfortunately. His 140+ K's are too much to endure. SS should be a position where you get more "small ball" activity. Note: Valdez will be a candidate for the utility position, nothing more. Sox will get somebody either via trade, or via FA.

 

Harris = He gone. Guillen has been very critical of Harris, KW has been strangely silent on the topic. Harris brings good things to the table, he's good defensively for sure. His sub par September doesn't help his cause. If the Sox want to really change the dynamic of the team without totally blowing it up, what better way than to change your Keystone Combo. Look for a guy to be brought in who can work in a tandem with Uribe. Note: not a platoon with Uribe ... a guy who can spell Uribe and hopefully play another position, and play it well. Guillen wants more flexibility, more depth, more guys who are interchangeable. More interchangeable guys = less prolonged slumps.

 

Konerko = stays right where he's at. Notwithstanding my bet of two pitchers of beer from the MIA quickman, I can't see them trading Konerko for two reasons. One, he's had a very good year by anyone's standards. Two, there is not a huge pressing market for 1B men. Granted, all it takes is one team to match up with. But, improved production from the 1B spot is not a problem. Sox have other problems. Guillen and KW both are appreciative of what Konerko brings to the table, and personally I don't see him going anywhere.

 

Lee = see Konerko. Same story. Guillen thinks Lee can still get better and has challenged him to do so. This was a damn good year for Lee. As KW correctly points out, the ballpark is playing small and you need power. LF is a power position, and Lee has really improved defensively.

 

Center field and right field = these are the wild cards. Both Guillen and KW like Rowand, and if what we've seen is the real deal, what's not to like? Rowand's biggest improvement this year was his ability to adjust from at bat to at bat. Last nite was a good example. Here is the thing ... Rowand can easily slide over to RF if the Sox get a CF. It would not surprise me one bit to see them really go hard for a speedy CF guy in a trade, even with Anderson waiting in the wings. I don't know who's available but if they can find a guy who's great defensively and is even just average with the stick, I bet they'll do it. Then, they've revamped "up the middle". I believe Maggs is gone. Too much bad blood and this injury thing is the excuse Sox management needs (wants?) to make a change. This is just how I think it will play out.

 

More on CF/RF: They did not pick up this Escobar kid for nothing. Nor do I think they'll trade Borchard - his value is probably next to zero anyway. I believe we'll see Borchard in AAA for at least 1/2 the year in 2005. As to what they do with him long term, I suggest it's too soon to tell. I don't think he'll be a productive regular long term but I think the Sox want to be 100% sure. Winter ball will be a good way for the Sox to help determine his future. Who would trade for Borchard right now, and give anything of value for him? I can't see any team doing that. Escobar brings speed, assuming he recovers from the knee problem, no reason to think he won't. He can also play all three OF positions. And, can pinch run.

 

Catcher: Ozzie has tipped his hand here. I believe we'll see Davis and Burke, at least to start the year.

 

Bench: Right now, it's Gload, Timo Perez, Sandy Alomar, Valdez. Tough to argue with Gload's production. Ozzie seems to really like him, but don't be surprised if another opportunity comes up for Gload, i.e. he is not signed for next year and some other team might want him. But I do think he'll be back. Sandy Alomar I don't think will be back. Again, the concept of interchangeable parts. Sox will either try to get a bench guy who can catch in an emergency because Guillen seems to like having three guys who can catch. So I see a small shake up in terms of the bench. We may see totally different bench guys who can give Guillen more speed, defense, and flexibility. Escobar would provide speed and defense.

 

Starting pitching: This, to me, is simple. They will add a free agent. It will be the easiest way to do it without having to trade guys they'd prefer not to trade.

 

Bullpen: Seems to me Ozzie has been pretty comfortable with the pen but he's also said he wants a power arm for the 9th inning. That's where I see the big change. I think they'll bring in a couple of guys to compete for the role, perhaps one guy via FA and perhaps a minor leaguer who can't break through with some other organization. Sox have some trade flexibility here. If they have to give up a guy like Adkins or Cotts (not that they want to), they can in order to get some bullpen help, or I should say change the faces down there. To me, the bullpen has been ok, but just ok. Nothing special.

 

Summary: Based on what they've said and my interpretation of it, I think you'll see some changes in the bullpen, a new starter added, a new SS, a change at 2B with Uribe in the picture there, and an addition to the OF. Plus some changes to the bench, maybe 1-2 new guys there.

 

The PR aspect to this whole thing is if they can 1). add a pitcher via FA and 2). add a SS, 2B, and maybe CF while sliding Rowand over to RF ... they can sell it to the fans that they've made changes while keeping some key, identifiable players.

 

Again, all these moves aren't necessarily what I think is best. It is just this is what I think they're going to do.

 

End of rant.

[WSoxShuf]

Well done

 

First off where is Uribe in your scenario and cna someone tell me is Escobar a good prospect.

[Guest JimH]

Well done

 

First off where is Uribe in your scenario and cna someone tell me is Escobar a good prospect.

Uribe = I see him getting the bulk of the playing time at 2B. But I see a veteran guy with speed being brought in to play a lot of 2B as well. A guy who can handle the bat and do the little things like draw walks, bunt, hit and run, etc. All the things Ozzie was hoping Harris could do.

 

Escobar = was rated very highly in the Mets system and also by Cleveland. Injuries have gotten him off track. Lots of talent, hasn't put it together ... yet. Good speed, great arm, pop in the bat, can play all 3 OF spots.

[aboz56]

Well done

 

First off where is Uribe in your scenario and cna someone tell me is Escobar a good prospect.

Escobar was considered a great prospect a few years ago.

 

Injuries have killed his progress.

 

As recently as 2002, he was the Indians #2 prospect by Baseball America.

 

Here's what they had to say back then:

 

Background: Escobar had been the bright light of the Mets system since a breakout season in 1998 in the South Atlantic League, but New York also was getting impatient waiting for him to make the final steps in becoming a major league regular. Faced with the prospect of getting Roberto Alomar in a December trade, the Mets included Escobar in the five-player package they sent to Cleveland. Escobar has exciting tools across the board.

 

Strengths: When he’s right offensively, Escobar generates line drives and above-average power while utilizing the entire field. He also has speed. A standout center fielder, he offers the best outfield defense and arm in the system.

 

Weaknesses: Escobar struggled in Triple-A and the majors last season as his plate discipline deteriorated. He was befuddled by conflicting advice from a variety of Mets coaches before reverting to an open stance with his legs spread wide and his hands held high.

 

The Future: Escobar could spend most of 2002 at Triple-A Buffalo trying to polish his game. If he can’t, the whispers that he’s the second coming of failed prospect Ruben Rivera will just get louder.

[WSoxShuf]

I would love Lee,Rowand and Beltran in the OF

[southsider2k5]

Escobar was considered a great prospect a few years ago.

 

Injuries have killed his progress.

 

As recently as 2002, he was the Indians #2 prospect by Baseball America.

 

Here's what they had to say back then:

Yeah, the guy was the centerpiece of the Robbie Alomar to the Mets deal. Yet another overpayment for Robbie :banghead

[aboz56]

Great post Jim, as always.

 

Another question I have is where is Franklin Thomas in your plans?

[Guest JimH]

Great post Jim, as always.

 

Another question I have is where is Franklin Thomas in your plans?

He is your DH.

 

BTW, I neglected to mention Everett.

 

Some of you will think I'm nuts but I see Everett as a depth guy, to start the year.

 

Everett doesn't have much to say or to gripe about. He is coming off a rough year and will be paid $4M. I see him starting some games in the OF and I see him as the primary pinch hitter and he is great depth for the inevitable nagging injuries which always happen. In addition, he is insurance in case one of the OF's goes down or if Frank doesn't recover and/or gets hurt again. At least this is the way I see it lining up for April. Things can change (and usually do) in spring training.

 

As for Escobar, it's really up to him. He's out of options as I understand it, which I believe is why Cleveland had to waive him. Not 100% certain on this. Sox could certainly carry him and go with just two catchers ... and then wait and see how their needs shake out.

 

Like always, I see the personnel changing a bit from April to the stretch.

[Hatchetman]

gload is an indentured servant for now, so he isn't going anywhere.

 

escobar cannot be counted on for anything. he'll be in camp battling for a roster spot.

 

i think the only major lineup change will be a new SS.

[WSoxShuf]

gload is an indentured servant for now, so he isn't going anywhere.

 

escobar cannot be counted on for anything. he'll be in camp battling for a roster spot.

 

i think the only major lineup change will be a new SS.

oh boy i hope your wrong with that prediction.

[Hatchetman]

i hope i'm wrong too.

[beck72]

Did you catch the quote where Ozzie said Lee isn't a "complete player", that Lee "knows what he needs to work on"? By all accounts, Lee's having a solid year in the field and at bat. So what's the problem? More than meets the eye here. Something else is wrong w/ C. Lee they're not talking about. This was very revealing.

 

Lee = he gone.

 

Gload could be used as trade bait for a low payroll team [Or as a PK replacement. Gload shouldn't be on the bench to start '05. He should be starting somewhere]

 

Uribe could be at SS as well. A new 2b man could come on board--Fa Placido Polanco [versatile, plays 3b and SS]? Or keep Uribe at 2b and sign Vizquel.

 

OF? Who knows? Brian Anderson might be given a chance. Escobar probably has a good shot to make the Sox, if healthy. [take Timo's spot-is he Arb. eligible?]

 

I look for a big trade, though, to get a leadoff, catalyst type.

[Gene Honda Civic]

I agree Wille = He gone

 

one of Cotts/Adkins = He gone, possibly both, as a I could see Diaz or even Grilli taking a spot from them

 

Davis, I don't wanna see back. We've seen his potential in the one 3 -week stretch when he hit, porblem was it was sandwiched by extended slumps, and his history shows nothing but hitting slumps.

 

Burke is a capable back up, and Buehrle's personal catcher, I'd like to see him back next season -- Makes near minimum

[Gene Honda Civic]

Thats Interesting. What leads you to beleive that?? If one of them had to go, I would say Adkins, but thats because I really like Cotts.

I think they will pick one BP arm

 

Spots already taken

Shingo

Marte

Politte

FA

Cotts/Adkins

Grilli/Diaz/Munoz (Munoz has the inside track I think as a Lefty specialist) (Grilli/Diaz would be mop-up/long relief/spot starter)

 

Now If they don't add one the FA spot is almost certainly taken by Cotts/Adkins. Also don't discount Schoenewies in that FA spot. It could happen if KW can convince him he is a BP pitcher. Use him as a lefty specialist.

[Guest JimH]

Did you catch the quote where Ozzie said Lee isn't a "complete player", that Lee "knows what he needs to work on"? By all accounts, Lee's having a solid year in the field and at bat. So what's the problem? More than meets the eye here. Something else is wrong w/ C. Lee they're not talking about. This was very revealing.

 

Lee = he gone.

 

Gload could be used as trade bait for a low payroll team [Or as a PK replacement. Gload shouldn't be on the bench to start '05. He should be starting somewhere]

 

Uribe could be at SS as well. A new 2b man could come on board--Fa Placido Polanco [versatile, plays 3b and SS]? Or keep Uribe at 2b and sign Vizquel.

 

OF? Who knows? Brian Anderson might be given a chance. Escobar probably has a good shot to make the Sox, if healthy. [take Timo's spot-is he Arb. eligible?]

 

I look for a big trade, though, to get a leadoff, catalyst type.

It is great to banter baseball with you, you look at what they're saying and analyze and you know your stuff. Great combination.

 

You may be right about Lee. I have a feeling he'll stay, particularly with Maggs going out the door as we suspect. The Sox are usually cautious with letting too many guys go in one offseason, especially guys with name recognition.

 

I share some of your thoughts about Gload. If there is a chance for him to start somewhere, I think the Sox will accommodate him (trade). If it looks like his best fit is here, he'll be back. But he certainly has some value, no doubt about that.

 

We agree on the leadoff spot situation, i.e. trade acquisition. I don't know if it will be SS, 2B, or CF. That is where the changes will take place IMO.

[GreenSox]

Gload could be used as trade bait for a low payroll team [Or as a PK replacement. Gload shouldn't be on the bench to start '05. He should be starting somewhere]

Teams need a good bench to win world series'---he's all we have worth a damn on it.

[beck72]

Teams  need a good bench to win world series'---he's all we have worth a damn on it.

I agree. But Gload has shown he's probably capable of being an everyday player, not just a bench guy. The first extended playing time he's had and he goes on a long hit streak, while showing nice patience, great glove work, and the ability to hit LHP and RHP!? Bodes well for an entire year.

 

But who knows what his worth is. Could the Sox get a few solid prospects for him? Who knows? I for one think he's very capable of being a solid, JT Snow type player. Low payroll teams would love to have a guy like Gload. But I also think he'd be able to start on the sox, which would make PK tradeable

[southsider2k5]

I don't believe anyone has mentioned Robbie yet... This was on White Sox.com

 

The White Sox won't have the services of second baseman Roberto Alomar for the season's final week. Alomar has returned to Arizona to take care of his problematic back.

 

"Yeah. He's shut down," said Guillen of Alomar. "We aren't going to play him, and he's going to see some specialist for his back. We were holding him back having him here for no reason.

 

"It wouldn't do him any good to sit on the bench and not do anything. We are going to give him a chance to recover for next year. This kid can still play and has a lot of games to go."

 

Alomar, 36, hit just .180 (11-for-61) in 18 games since the White Sox re-acquired him from Arizona on Aug. 5 in exchange for cash and a player to be named later. But the inflammation in his lower back has kept Alomar out of action since Sept. 5.

 

Nonetheless, Guillen believes there still could be a place on the 2005 roster for the owner of 2,724 career hits.

 

"If he's healthy and we find a place where we need him, we might take a shot," said Guillen of Alomar. "You never know. Roberto's time with us has been especially disappointing for him because he wanted to help the team get to where we wanted to go.

 

"But it was more frustrating for him than us," Guillen added.

[beck72]

I don't believe anyone has mentioned Robbie yet...  This was on White Sox.com

As Jim H is the "President of the Willie won't be around in 2005 club"--he has me convinced, but I think he has more ability than Jim gives him credit for--having Robbie as a bench player making the minimum wouldn't be completely unheard of.

 

But I'd prefer a bench guy to play more than one position, have speed, and be better defensively than Robbie.

[DBAHO]

But I'd prefer a bench guy to play more than one position, have speed, and be better defensively than Robbie.

Craig Counsell. I hope the Sox seriously look into signing him this off-season.

[beck72]

Craig Counsell. I hope the Sox seriously look into signing him this off-season.

I don't know too much about him. But someone who could do a lot of different things is likely to get the UTL spot. Esp if Uribe is a starter. We saw how valuable a guy like Uribe can be and the Sox will need someone solid to fill his role. I'll give him a look.

[DBAHO]

I don't know too much about him. But someone who could do a lot of different things is likely to get the UTL spot. Esp if Uribe is a starter. We saw how valuable a guy like Uribe can be and the Sox will need someone solid to fill his role. I'll give him a look.

Counsell can play 2nd, 3rd and SS. Excellent Fielder, and a savvy veteran. Would be an excellent utility man for the bench.

[beck72]

Counsell can play 2nd, 3rd and SS. Excellent Fielder, and a savvy veteran. Would be an excellent utility man for the bench.

Sounds good. Come to think of it, doesn't he have connections to the Chicago area? I thought he worked some baseball camps around here in the offseason a few years back, when he was w/ Ariz.

[Guest JimH]

Sounds good. Come to think of it, doesn't he have connections to the Chicago area? I thought he worked some baseball camps around here in the offseason a few years back, when he was w/ Ariz.

He is a Milwaukee guy and has roots there and a nice home too.

 

He's very well liked in the community and I'd be really surprised if they didn't re-sign him.