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10/02/04

 

NEWSWEEK POLL: BUSH LEAD GONE

Sat Oct 02 2004 16:42:32 ET

 

New York-Sixty-one percent of Americans who watched the first presidential debate on September 30 say Sen. John Kerry won; 19 percent say President George W. Bush won and 16 percent say they tied, according to the latest Newsweek Poll which was conducted after the debate ended. Fifty-six percent say Kerry did better than they expected; 11 percent say so for Bush. Thirty-eight percent say Bush did worse than expected;  3 percent say so for Kerry, the poll shows.

 

        The debate erased the lead the Bush/Cheney ticket has held over Kerry/Edwards in the Newsweek Poll since the Republican convention. In a three-way trial heat including Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo, among registered voters Kerry/Edwards leads Bush/Cheney 47 percent v. 45 percent with 2 percent for Nader/Camejo. In a two-way heat, Kerry/Edwards leads 49 percent v. 46 percent for Bush/Cheney, the poll shows.

 

From Drudge.com More at link.

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As we learned 4 years ago, it isn't about how many but where. Bush could again lose the popular vote and retain the office.

This election is going down to the very last day. As evenly split as this country is, the winner will be the candidate that does the best job of getting their voters to the polls. I think we can all agree on this.

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This election is going down to the very last day.  As evenly split as this country is, the winner will be the candidate that does the best job of getting their voters to the polls.  I think we can all agree on this.

Nah, once Bush trots out BinLaden whose been staying at a secret bunker in the White House, he'll win.

 

As I've been looking over my list of issues and my Bush lawn sign and Kerry bumper sticker, I think we aren't going to be much better ot worse off if either candidate wins. Like always a couple issues get better (no matter what side you are on) and a couple issues get worse.

 

Plus I knew 3 1/2 years ago that Bush would carry my state and whomever his opponents is will carry my precint, city, and county. My vote means something only to me. And that is important enough.

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This election is going down to the very last day.  As evenly split as this country is, the winner will be the candidate that does the best job of getting their voters to the polls.  I think we can all agree on this.

Nuke, I got respect for you - because every time I think you've turned into a Republican robot parroting off talking points, you say something insightful like that.

 

I don't think Kerry's got things wrapped up and Bush sure doesn't. Kerry has a reputation of being a good closer, Bush has a history of not being a good closer. In 2000, Bush held a small lead at this point in the presidential race. He did not win the popular vote. This could be a point of concern for Bush and co.

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Nuke, I got respect for you - because every time I think you've turned into a Republican robot parroting off talking points, you say something insightful like that.

 

I don't think Kerry's got things wrapped up and Bush sure doesn't. Kerry has a reputation of being a good closer, Bush has a history of not being a good closer. In 2000, Bush held a small lead at this point in the presidential race. He did not win the popular vote. This could be a point of concern for Bush and co.

This election I think will hinge (DUH) on what happens or does NOT happen in the next 30 days. I fully expect somewhere, maybe not on American soil, but somewhere, something to happen... much like the Madrid Train bombings - trying to effect the electioms here.

 

I also think that one of the two candidates is really going to mess up. I don't know which one, but both are capable.

 

I just wish we had someone real to vote for.

 

I just registered last week to vote (yea, the day my internet logs were pulled at work... boy such criminal activity there).

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This election I think will hinge (DUH) on what happens or does NOT happen in the next 30 days.  I fully expect somewhere, maybe not on American soil, but somewhere, something to happen... much like the Madrid Train bombings - trying to effect the electioms here.

 

I also think that one of the two candidates is really going to mess up.  I don't know which one, but both are capable. 

 

I just wish we had someone real to vote for. 

 

I just registered last week to vote (yea, the day my internet logs were pulled at work... boy such criminal activity there).

I'm not convinced that anything will happen. Political analysts have argued back and forth if a terrorist event will help the Bush or Kerry campaigns.

 

Bush because we always rally around the President in times of war or strife. Kerry because we may think Bush's administration and policies have left us less safe. So if you are so inclined to influence the election in that way what do you do?

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Sunday another poll comes in dead heat.

 

CNNGallopetc.etc, poll

 

Poll puts Bush, Kerry about even

Results indicate gain for senator over last such survey

 

 

(CNN) -- President Bush and his Democratic challenger, Sen. John Kerry, are about even among likely and registered voters in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, released Sunday.

 

The poll showed Kerry and Bush tied at 49 percent each among likely voters interviewed. Among registered voters Bush had 49 percent and Kerry 47 percent. Independent candidate Ralph Nader was favored by 1 percent in each group.

 

The margin of error in each case was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

 

By contrast, Bush was ahead of Kerry among likely voters 52 percent to 44 percent in the Gallup poll conducted September 24-26. Among registered voters in that poll, the spread was 53 percent for Bush and 42 percent for Kerry. Nader had 3 percent among each group.

 

The latest poll talked with 1,012 adult Americans by telephone Friday through Sunday, after the presidential debate Thursday. Among those interviewed, 934 said they were registered voters and 772 indicated they were likely to vote.

 

"It's obvious that the debate helped Kerry. What's less obvious is how," CNN polling director Keating Holland said.

 

Other polls conducted after the debate also showed Kerry in a virtual tie with Bush. (Full story)

 

On the issue of the economy, the poll showed all voters favoring Kerry 51 percent to Bush's 44 percent, almost exactly the opposite of what the September 24-26 poll indicated -- Bush with 51 percent and Kerry with 45 percent.

 

Holland said that was good news for Kerry going into the second and third debates, in which domestic issues will be highlighted.

 

But Holland said the expectations game has shifted -- a plurality says that Kerry will do the better job in the second debate (before the first debate, most Americans thought Bush would win).

 

"So the pressure is on Kerry to meet expectations. And let's not forget the good news for the White House in this poll: Bush is still seen as a stronger leader who would better deal with Iraq and terrorism," Holland said.

 

Bush's numbers on the Iraq and terrorism, however, have fallen since the previous poll.

 

He leads Kerry 51 percent to 44 percent on the question of who would do a better job in Iraq. That was down from 55 percent for Bush in the previous poll and up from 41 percent for Kerry.

 

On who would do a better job against terrorism, Bush had 56 percent to Kerry's 39 percent. The figures in the previous poll were 61 percent for Bush to 34 percent for Kerry.

 

The results on each question had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

 

Voters were split between the two candidates on poll questions about personal qualities, and they picked Bush as a stronger leader by a large margin.

 

On the question of who is better at expressing himself, Kerry outpolled Bush 54 percent to 41 percent. On who cares more about people, Kerry had 49 percent and Bush 44 percent. On the question of who is more intelligent, Kerry led Bush 48 percent to 38 percent.

 

On who is more honest and trustworthy, however, Bush trumped Kerry by 46 percent to 41 percent, and when asked who among the two candidates shares their values, voters chose Bush 49 percent to 45 percent for Kerry.

 

And when it comes to who they think is the stronger leader, those polled favored Bush by 56 percent to 37 percent for Kerry.

 

Again, the results on each question had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

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On who is more honest and trustworthy, however, Bush trumped Kerry by 46 percent to 41 percent, and when asked who among the two candidates shares their values, voters chose Bush 49 percent to 45 percent for Kerry.

 

Yet some will vote for Kerry. Does this scare the hell out of anyone else? :headshake

I could not see voting for someone who I didn't think was honest and trustworthy.

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