NBA Prediction Thread

[qwerty]

i think shaq/wade is going to be a much better combo then the shaq/kobe..... yes kobe is a better player but him and shaq did not play together all to well because they both want to be the go to guy on the team... wade has already stated he rather pass then shoot anytime... if kobe wasnt so greedy in the playoffs and actually fed shaq the ball some they could of won it all... but who knows

They did not win it together 3 times or anything.

[WSoxShuf]

Miami will appear good due to their s***ty division.

 

But, they will be dominated in the playoffs and by Western teams.

 

 

Wade does not impress me at all.

[whitesoxfan99]

Miami will appear good due to their s***ty division.

 

But, they will be dominated in the playoffs and by Western teams.

 

 

Wade does not impress me at all.

What part of Dwayne Wade doesn't impress you? The part where he single handedly led a Marquette team who isn't even NCAA tourney caliber without him to the final 4. Or the part where he was the catalyst to the Miami Heat making the playoffs and getting out of the first round. Or the part where he is already a great defender and plays balls out for 48 minutes. Damn, yeah I can see why you wouldn't be impressed by Dwayne Wade.

[Palehosefan]

Nice one whitesoxfan99. As for this...

Palehosefan, do you actually watch any of the Heat games? Jones has to be the oldest 32 year old in the league. He is no longer an "elite" shooter as you claim. He is a HUGE liability defensively, and might be one of the worst defensive 2 guards in the game. He was no existant in the playoffs once Wade took over the team.

First of all Eddie Jones NEVER shows up in the playoffs, never has, who knows if he ever will, but that argument holds no water showing his "aging". He has a career average of 13.8 points in the playoffs, he will have to improve those if the Heat are gonna make the run I think they will.

 

Second of all I watched alot of Heat games, also, Jones shot 37% from the 3 point line last year, compared with other 2 guards...

Jones = 37% from 3, 41% overall, 479 3's taken

VC = 38% from 3, 41.7% overall, 243 3's taken

Ray Allen = 39% from 3, 44% overall, 378 3's taken

Kobe = 33% from 3, 43.8% overall, 217 3's taken

McGrady = 34% from 3, 41.7% overall, 513 3's taken

Mobley = 39% from 3, 42.6% overall, 420 3's taken

 

Jones took more 3's than anyone outside of McGrady, and made 3% more than Tracy, if you take more shots, you are going to shoot lower for anyone outside of Peja. I'm well aware Jones D isn't what it used to be, but its average at worst. He also will have a chance to be much more aggressive with Shaq back to take care of mistakes. The past few years the Heat didn't have any kind of shot blocking presence inside, so the perimeter defenders knew they couldn't take chances and make mistakes.

 

With Shaq and Wade running this team, Jones is going to become a nonfactor and will probably get half the touches he did in the past. Lets not forget that the past 4 years he has been the go to guy in Miami, and the simple fact that he is now the 3rd option will cause a significant decrease in his numbers. Mark my words, Jones will average under 15 points a game this season. You overrate the stats because you neglect the fact that the majority of the Heat players will get fewer touches now that Shaq is in town and Wade has taken over this team.

 

You were inferring that you watched the Heat play last year alot, well if actually did you would have noticed Jones was already the 3rd option behind Wade and Odom. Losing Lamar, Caron, and Brian lost 35 points a game. Shaq will make up 25 of those points, but others will have to step up to account for the lost points, others like Wade and Jones who will be the 2nd and 3rd option respectively.

 

 

 

Shaq has a history of nagging injuries, especially as he has gotten older, so saying that JO'Neal or Wallace are just as likely to get hurt holds no water.

Re-read my post above, Shaq has played in atleast 67 games the last 5 years, most filled with nagging injuries, again, Shaq also lost 30 pounds this offseason which will help the leg injuries.

 

Sure you use stats, but they are projected stats that lack common sense

 

The stats I used were the same exact numbers from last year without any improvement at all. If thats not commen sense, I don't know what is

[Palehosefan]

I'll break it down even further....

 

Eddie Jones was 44th in the NBA in 3 point %. Of those 40 ahead and 3 that are tied with him, 12 didn't even shoot 200 3's, and only 4 shot over 400 like Jones. Jones was also third in the NBA in made 3's behind Peja and Tracy McGrady.

[ZoomSlowik]

Might as well throw in my 2 cents. I'm guessing on everyone's approximate record, I am way to lazy to do the math to make sure it adds up in anyway.

 

Atlantic

 

Philadelphia 45-38 (I hate most of the guys on their team but no one else here inspires me)

New York 42-40

Boston 40-42 (I still don't have faith in them)

New Jersey 36-46 (how the mighty have fallen)

Toronto 30-52

 

Central

 

Detroit 58-25

Indiana 53-29

Miluakee 42-40 (might be higher if Ford's health was more certain)

Cleveland 40-42

Chicago 26-57

 

Southeast(god awful division)

 

Miami 45-38 (I agree with Hammer, not an impressive roster, but when they're both healty Shaq and Wade is better than most of the East)

Washington 44-38 (again, agree with Hammer, they have some interesting players, really need Brown to step up)

Orlando 40-42

Atlanta 25-58

Charlotte 15-67

 

Northwest

 

Minnesota 57-26 (I like them a lot if they stay healthy this time)

Denver 50-32 (gotta love the front court depth)

Utah 43-39 (still not sold)

Portland 38-44

Seattle 30-52 (a couple of good players, doesn't add to much)

 

Pacific

 

 

Sacramento 48-34 (more of a mess then it appears. Webber not himself, Peja pissed, bench not as good as it has been. Still have enough talent to win the division though.)

Phoenix 46-36 ( I really like the lineup of Nash, Q, Marion, and Stoudemire)

Lakers 42-42 (still not enough options, now they don't have Shaq to make up for it)

Clippers 34-48

Golden State 24-58

 

Southwest

 

San Antonio 58-24

Houston 47-35

Dallas 44-38 (not sure dropping Nash, Walker, and Jamison while adding Terry and Dampier is an improvement. Dampier has only had one good year, Nash was big for them. They don't have an entire team of SF's anymore though)

Memphis 38-44 (not as solid as they played last year. several solid players, but no real stars)

New Orleans 25-58 (really got screwed on the division switch)

 

 

NBA Finals- Detroit and Minnesota, to close for me to call.

 

MVP- Garnett

ROY- Okafor

[Rowand44]

What part of Dwayne Wade doesn't impress you?  The part where he single handedly led a Marquette team who isn't even NCAA tourney caliber without him to the final 4.  Or the part where he was the catalyst to the Miami Heat making the playoffs and getting out of the first round.  Or the part where he is already a great defender and plays balls out for 48 minutes.  Damn, yeah I can see why you wouldn't be impressed by Dwayne Wade.

Dwayne Wade is one hell of a player. However I do not see the Heat being able to beat Detroit, the Pistons beat shaq last year, I think they'll be able to beat him this year also, jmo. As for a prediction I'll say Spurs over Pistons for the championship.

[ZoomSlowik]

Jones is going to be mediocre. Read the info from the ESPN NBA experts(might be on Insider), they back up Hammer. I thought he'd be a bigger factor in the playoffs too, but he just disappeared. He's not the player he used to be. My guess is he'll shoot for a good percentage, but he will not be anywhere near the 17 points per game he had last year. This is entirely because of Shaq. His open looks will probably go up, but he's not going to get very many plays run to get him open. Jones averaged 14.3 shots a game last year, which was the most on the Heat and was actually more than Shaq(14.1). There is no way that will be repeated. My guess is he will average about 12 points a game with Wade around 18 and Shaq somewhere between 23 and 25. Not bad, but they'll need more from them considering their supporting cast, and if Shaq gets hurt they are really in trouble.

[Palehosefan]

Again, no reason Eddie can't average 15+ this year. You don't need designed plays for you when Shaq is down low, you will have an open man when Shaq is doubled. Eddie was the 3rd option last year with more options at SF in Caron Butler and Lamar Odom getting shots. Of course Eddie isn't the same player he used to be, he used to be one of the top SG's and as good as it got shooting 3's and defending people. With age he has slowed down, but he's still good enough to put up last years numbers, we will see what he does this year. I think it will be 15-17 a game, you guys think around 12. We will see.

 

Also again, Eddie NEVER EVER has been a big factor in the playoffs, last year was no different, but by then Dorell Wright will be improved and Rasual Butler will be contributing alot with his very nice 3 point stroke.

 

Don't forget the Mav's got Stackhouse in the trade also, from reports this offseason, he has rehabbed completely and looks very good.

[ZoomSlowik]

I'm just doing the math when it comes to getting shots. Shaq is going to get more than that 14.1 shots without Kobe around(probably between 16 and 18), and Wade is going to get probably 15 minimum, and those are pretty conservative estimates. Jones was option number one or two most of last year, that seems pretty obvious considering he lead the team in shots. Wade didn't start taking over until late in the year, and Odom is an enigma when it comes to how much he is going to produce. There are two obvious options before Jones this time. They're also going to lose some shot attempts because Shaq will eat up many possessions taking free throws. Unless Shaq is out for a considerable amount of time he's probably going to struggle mightily to get 15 PPG. Payton is a better scorer than Jones and managed 14.6 last year. He was a big factor when Shaq and/or Kobe was hurt, but struggled late in the year and in the playoffs. Jones seems to fit in that role to a T. If Jones can get over 15 they'll be in decent shape, but I'd be shocked if he manages that.

[Palehosefan]

I can't see Dwyane getting 15+ shots, he has said numerous times he will be happy to feed Shaq all the time which will benefit Eddie also. Odom was anything but an enigma last year, he was consistent all year long. He was the main reason they made the playoffs, even over Wade. Shaq will get lots of touches, yes, but he is a very good passing big man as you know. Eddie and Rasual Butler will be the benificieries of that. They are two 3 point shooters that the Lakers needed in their lineups.

 

I'm basing all my 15 points + on Eddie's open 3 point shots that will be created from Shaq. I can see yall's argument about Eddie's decling athleticism. We will see what happens this year. Good argument though, I'm finished with it finally. Back to predictions :-).

[WilliamTell]

That Southwest division is possibly the toughest in all of sports. San Antonio, Dallas, Memphis, Houston, and New Orleans. All playoff teams from last year. New Orleans won't be a playoff team this year though. Last year the Midwest had 6 playoff teams, all 7 teams were in the top 9 in the Western Conference and all 7 teams were over .500, that was one tough division last year.

[hammerhead johnson]

That Southwest division is possibly the toughest in all of sports. San Antonio, Dallas, Memphis, Houston, and New Orleans. All playoff teams from last year. New Orleans won't be a playoff team this year though. Last year the Midwest had 6 playoff teams, all 7 teams were in the top 9 in the Western Conference and all 7 teams were over .500, that was one tough division last year.

Tell me about it...that divison is beautiful. Duncan, Dirk, and Yao are three of my favorite players. I'm looking forward to a lot of those games.

 

How about that for a law firm name? Duncan, Dirk, and Yao. It has a nice ring to it.

[hammerhead johnson]

Miami 45-38 (I agree with Hammer, not an impressive roster, but when they're both healty Shaq and Wade is better than most of the East)

Washington 44-38 (again, agree with Hammer, they have some interesting players, really need Brown to step up)

Some of the brightest basketball people that I know of expect the Wizards (if healthy) to compete for that division title.

 

And yet, most publications s*** on the Wizards.

 

The Sporting News, in particular, has the Heat ranked 5th in their power poll, and the Wizards ranked 28th! And what's worse? The Bulls are ranked #26 overall! I mean, come on now. Everyone knows that, if not for the Bobcats, the Bulls would rank dead last for certain.

 

Stay away from the Sporting News, at all costs. They'll make you dumber.

 

The best publication for my money is the generic "Pro Basketball 2004-2005" with Shaq on the cover. They know what they're talking about most of the time, and they're not afraid to talk s*** about players (they specifically stated that Antoine Walker in Atlanta is like a pig in feces...lol). They don't give every team an optimistic spin. It's a damn good publication, unlike all of the major ones (Sporting News, Street & Smiths, Lindys, Sport Illustrated, etc). I read those in order to know what NOT to think.

[qwerty]

Some of the brightest basketball people that I know of expect the Wizards (if healthy) to compete for that division title. 

 

And yet, most publications s*** on the Wizards.

 

The Sporting News, in particular, has the Heat ranked 5th in their power poll, and the Wizards ranked 28th!  And what's worse?  The Bulls are ranked #26 overall!  I mean, come on now.  Everyone knows that, if not for the Bobcats, the Bulls would rank dead last for certain.

 

Stay away from the Sporting News, at all costs.  They'll make you dumber.

 

The best publication for my money is the generic "Pro Basketball 2004-2005" with Shaq on the cover.  They know what they're talking about most of the time, and they're not afraid to talk s*** about players (they specifically stated that Antoine Walker in Atlanta is like a pig in feces...lol).  They don't give every team an optimistic spin.  It's a damn good publication, unlike all of the major ones (Sporting News, Street & Smiths, Lindys, Sport Illustrated, etc).  I read those in order to know what NOT to think.

It truly is a shame that the wizards are getting the shaft. Not a doubt in my mind that they can compete at least in their divsion.

[Spiff]

What exactly is so different about this Wizards team that makes them so good? They traded Stackhouse for Jamsion, whoopee. I seem to remember Arenas, Jamison, and a bunch of nobodies doing very little in Golden State.

[hammerhead johnson]

What exactly is so different about this Wizards team that makes them so good?  They traded Stackhouse for Jamsion, whoopee.  I seem to remember Arenas, Jamison, and a bunch of nobodies doing very little in Golden State.

Arenas missed 27 games last year. I think that he's a potential superstar going into this year...I hope that he stays healthy.

 

Kwame Brown is still kind of raw, and I can't blame people for criticizing him. If you take a look at his game log from last year, he had some great performances, but then there were games like in Miami when he scored 0 points in 30 minutes. Dunno what happened there, but then again, he's only 22. I have a feeling that he's gonna bust out somewhat this year. And if not this year, then next year.

 

Jamison was the 6th man of the year...he's one hell of a player. Stackhouse is one of the foremost cancers in this league, up there with Marbury, Glenn Robinson, etc. This trade was absolutely huge.

 

And I like their second tier. Hughes scored 18 points per game last year. He can't really do much else, though. They also have Peeler, Hayes, Thomas, Dixon, Jeffries, etc. That's above average depth.

 

44 wins is not asking for too much from this team.

[hammerhead johnson]

44 wins is not asking for too much from this team.

Kwame Brown is supposed to miss the first month (12 games), however. I think that they can win 5 of those.

 

at Mem

at Cha

vs Mia

at Mia

vs Orl

at Cle

vs Dal

vs Bos

at NJ

vs Tor

at Phi

at Tor

 

5-7 going into December...they'd have to go 39-31 from there on out to finish with a 44-38 record. 38-32 actually sounds about right. But if any one of those three guys (Arenas, Jamison, Brown) gets injured for an extended amount of time after December 1, you can stick a fork in this team.

[qwerty]

Kwame Brown is supposed to miss the first month (12 games), however.  I think that they can win 5 of those.

 

at Mem

at Cha

vs Mia

at Mia

vs Orl

at Cle

vs Dal

vs Bos

at NJ

vs Tor

at Phi

at Tor

 

5-7 going into December...they'd have to go 39-31 from there on out to finish with a 44-38 record.  38-32 actually sounds about right.  But if any one of those three guys (Arenas, Jamison, Brown) gets injured for an extended amount of time after December 1, you can stick a fork in this team.

I agree, i feel this year jamison is gonna go insane. I feel 20-24 is not out of his range with a high shooting percentage.

[WilliamTell]

For some reason I'm more excited about basketball this winter than normally. I'm not a big hockey fan but I do realize that basketball will be shown more since hockey isn't going to be on.

[Palehosefan]

Antawn will get his 20, whether he's fed the ball or has to work his ass off to get them himself. The Wizards lack depth in the paint though, Haywood gained alot of strength this offseason and will be a big help. But Ramos will be of no help to Haywood and Etan Thomas.

 

What worries me as a Heat fan, is Shaq's matchup with a bulked up Haywood. Brendan could do a decent job on Shaq in their matchups and force Dwyane to outscore Arenas. I've been pretty impressed with the Wizards outside shooting also in their preseason games. The Heat aren't going to runaway from the Wiz at all, it will be hard-fought all season long.

 

Also, where are you getting that Stackhouse has been a cancer? I'm interested to know, because I've heard almost the opposite.

[hammerhead johnson]

Also, where are you getting that Stackhouse has been a cancer? I'm interested to know, because I've heard almost the opposite.

He's a team cancer in that he's a selfish ball hog. When he has a bad offensive night, he lets if affect his defense. I don't know if it's possible to win a playoff series with this guy as one of your primary players. He's just not the type of guy that you want on you team.

 

Here's an excerpt from that "Pro Basketball 2004-2005" mag I mentioned. It's the only one that tells the truth -- the other mags don't criticize Stackhouse.

 

"Getting Antawn Jamison for the #5 pick was a great move. Getting to unload team cancer Christian Laettner and ball hog Jerry Stackhouse in the same trade made it the best move of the summer."

 

"Best move of the summer"... they mean that the Wizards didn't have to give up much to get Antawn, as opposed to the Heat and Rockets, who traded away key players. That's how I interpreted it. Most people would say, obviously, that the Heat made the power move of the summer.

[Palehosefan]

I can definitely agree about the ball hog status. But I think cancer went over the line. He's a great guy and a solid teammate. He just likes to shoot the ball alot, which is a good thing if he's on a bad team, but if he's on a good team, it can lead to trouble as you are saying.