Fixing the White Sox Part Two

[Chisoxfn]

My last piece talked about the White Sox offense and how it wasn’t the problem. That puts the emphasis on pitching. In this piece, I will talk specifically about the starting pitching.

 

When you take a look at the Sox earned run average, you get a quick glance at why the 2004 White Sox fell short. A 4.91 team ERA, which is good for 25th in the majors and 12th in the American League. Just divisional foes Detroit and Kansas City ranked worse.

 

The starting rotation was even worse, posting a brutal 5.17 ERA. The bullpen had a 4.31 ERA. The rotations ERA is inflated due to the numerous poundings given up by the varying 5th starters. That list included Dan Wright, Arnie Munoz, Felix Diaz, Scott Schoeneweis, Jon Rauch, Jason Grilli, Neal Cotts and Josh Stewart. Their combined ERA’s is flat brutal.

 

Truth be told though, the White Sox rotation was much worse after the trade deadline. This is a scary proposition, considering the Sox bolstered their rotation with Freddy Garcia and Jose Contreras. Part of the reason behind this was Jon Garland and Jose Contreras. Plus this is 4/5ths of next years starting rotation.

 

Garland had a 5.44 ERA after the break, with a more alarming 1.46 WHIP. Contreras wasn’t much better with a 5.30 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. These two are going to play an integral part on the 2005 season.

 

While Buehrle and Garcia are the Sox aces, at this point and time they aren’t capable of carrying a team. Garcia has ace potential and some would say Buehrle is an ace, especially when you look at his VORP which ranks him as the 17th most valuable player, just behind Pedro Martinez. When adjusting his ERA for playing half of his games at the hitters paradise known as US Cellular, you get an even better sense of value for Mark Buehrle. The man may not have ace stuff, but he knows how to pitch and performs like an ace.

 

But the focus of the White Sox rotation will be the back of the rotation, which contains a talented Garland/Contreras duo. The mystery 5th men is yet to be known and while this years free agent crop offers some attractive names. From the likes of Pedro Martinez, Carl Pavano, Matt Morris, and Matt Clement…just to name a few. But don’t expect those names to be mentioned on the South Side this year.

 

In fact, what the Sox need is consistency from Contreras and Garland. The only thing consistent about them thus far in their careers is that they will put up average to below average numbers, while flashing signs of why you keep them in the rotation. Did I just knock you out of your chair???? I sure as hell hope not, because this is no revelation, I wish I could of came up with something more creative, but luckily that’s not the case, cause I don’t know if I have faith on Kenny being uber creative. I have faith on him being cheap and on him acquiring veterans in the deadline (sometimes the wrong ones), but creativity implies numerous moves and that’s not something the Sox will do.

 

Garland looked incredibly comfortable in many starts this year, but early in the season (late in the games) he would get batted up and hit trouble. As the year went on he was harped by the big inning. To check out more on this, see Cheat’s ChiSox Blog. The bad news is, statistically Jon Garland didn’t grow, although he once again was able to get deep into games and in general keep the Sox in games.

 

Jose Contreras on the other hand improved after being traded to the White Sox. But really, how much better was he? Contreras posted a 5.30 ERA on the southside. However, minus a string of two starts (Sept 7th and 12th) he was more then solid. His big flaw is working on not tipping his pitches as well as improving his control, which is brutal. Contreras has a strong strikeout to walk ratio (7.93) and limits opponents to a .253 batting average.

 

What am I getting at, well I’m getting at the fact that the success of the 2005 Chicago White Sox is going to come down to these two talented pitchers, the top of the lineup, and the bullpen.

 

Now you ask, who do I propose to be the 5th starter? To be honest, I don’t know, but I don’t see the Chicago White Sox signing any starter to a big contract (this off-season). The Sox have trade bait in Carlos Lee/Paul Konerko and appear willing to move one of them while potentially signing another lefty bat to replace them.

 

Its quite likely that either one of the duo could bring the White Sox a young talented starting pitcher, who could step in and be a 5th starter and potentially develop into more by the end of the season. This pitcher would also help keep the payroll down, because realistically the Sox can’t spend more money on starting pitching. They project to have roughly 25 million spent on their starting four.

 

Out of the in-house candidates, there is only one person I consider and that’s Neal Cotts. Cotts didn’t have a strong campaign, but regardless of the fact he boasts some impressive secondary stats (.247 OBA, 7.99 K/9). He limits opponents batting average and is capable of getting the strikeouts. In fact, he has some resemblance to Johan Santana.

 

Now before everyone calls me crazy, lets think about their two fastballs. While Santana can get it up to 94, both utilize sneaky quick delivers that helps the ball getting to the plate faster. In Lehman’s terms, the ball jumps on the hitter leaving it practically impossible to turn on the ball. Unfortunately numerous times this season Cotts made some questionable pitches and would help speed a hitters bat up and then flash his change-up, which is still not where it should be. After that, the hitter got to run them bases as slow as he wanted to.

 

If Neal can improve his control and get a better grasp of his changeup, which has potential, along with his improving curveball then he has a strong shot to not only make the rotation, but eventually become an ace.

 

Brandon McCarthy, the Sox best prospect, will wait in the wings down in Charlotte or Birmingham. He will be the first one up if a pitcher goes down or if Garland/Contreras/5th starter fail to live up to their expectations.

 

Prediction: White Sox deal Paul Konerko or Carlos Lee (more likely of the two) to a team like San Francisco, Seattle or Baltimore. Think Jerome Williams, Joel Piniero and pitchers like them. Talented pitchers that have proven themselves in the majors to a point, but can go a lot farther with time.

 

Check back next for the piece on the bullpen, an area I would rank as important as the rotation. In my opinion, you get to the playoffs with a solid staff (not a great one) and a good bullpen and offense. You win in the post-season with a great staff, a good bullpen, and great defense.

[Flash Tizzle]

In fact, he has some resemblance to Johan Santana.

 

.............

 

If Neal can improve his control and get a better grasp of his changeup, which has potential, along with his improving curveball then he has a strong shot to not only make the rotation, but eventually become an ace.

 

I respectively disagree all mightly Sultan of Soxtalk. Your assessments on pitching leading to this team's collapse was dead on, but the few paragraphs on Neal Cotts perked my interest.

 

IMO, Neal Cotts will never reach a level worthy of an "ace" distinction. I'm not attempting to rehash simple squabbles with the Kool-Aid drinkers, but he lacks the pitching prowess evident in top-tier starters.

 

Johan Santana's fastball is "sneaky" because his motion is exactly the same regardless of changeup or slider. Three plus pitchers, all of which vary in speed, keep hitters off balance and often in between. I agree Neal does well hiding his fastball, but his floating changeup needs vast improvement. Perhaps his snap wrist delivery may hinder his grip on several pitches. () That's something you can't fix.

[Butter Parque]

I agree with most of what you said Chisoxfn. I don't agree though with you wanting to bring Cotts into the rotation. He has to get comfortable in the bullpen, befor he can become a starter. Eventually he'll be in the rotation, but the time is not now. I would love to get someone like Joel Pineiro (pending he's healthy), but I wouldn't want Jerome Williams, I would instead take Lowry.

 

I agree, Konerko/lee will bring us a young pitcher and I think an addtional prospect. I could see us though trading either Diaz, Grilli, Stewart, or Munoz in a package with either Lee/Konerko. That leaves an empty spot in the rotation that the White Sox won't be willing to give to a youngster. If they are able to get a young pitcher who is ready, you could see him in the 5, but I don't think so. I believe the Sox would love to have Contreras as their #4 starter instead, so they will go after someone in the FA market. Carl Pavano, Odalis Perez, Jaret Wright, and Pedro Marinez are the hot names out there, but everyone passes on Radke. Thats where the Sox could make their move and goa fter him. I could see them offering him as much as about a 4 year, 26 million dollar deal. There is no way the twins would match it and the Sox could be in luck. Radke would be a great fit in the #2 or #3 spot in the rotation.

 

As much as I would like to see the rotation get even younger, I don't see the goody young pitchers wanting to come to the southside of Chicago anytime soon. That, I think is a realistic option and conclusion tot he offseason (starting pitching wise) for the Sox.

 

The Rotation

 

Mark Buehrle

Freddy Garcia

Brad Radke

Jose Contreras

Jon Garland

[He_Gawn]

I still think if Cotts continues to improve over the offseason, We stick him as a spot starter. He has loads of potential, and just like Jason said, he reminds me of Johan.

[Rowand44]

I agree with most of what you said Chisoxfn. I don't agree though with you wanting to bring Cotts into the rotation. He has to get comfortable in the bullpen, befor he can become a starter. Eventually he'll be in the rotation, but the time is not now. I would love to get someone like Joel Pineiro (pending he's healthy), but I wouldn't want Jerome Williams, I would instead take Lowry.

 

I agree, Konerko/lee will bring us a young pitcher and I think an addtional prospect. I could see us though trading either Diaz, Grilli, Stewart, or Munoz in a package with either Lee/Konerko. That leaves an empty spot in the rotation that the White Sox won't be willing to give to a youngster. If they are able to get a young pitcher who is ready, you could see him in the 5, but I don't think so. I believe the Sox would love to have Contreras as their #4 starter instead, so they will go after someone in the FA market. Carl Pavano, Odalis Perez, Jaret Wright, and Pedro Marinez are the hot names out there, but everyone passes on Radke. Thats where the Sox could make their move and goa fter him. I could see them offering him as much as about a 4 year, 26 million dollar deal. There is no way the twins would match it and the Sox could be in luck. Radke would be a great fit in the #2 or #3 spot in the rotation.

 

As much as I would like to see the rotation get even younger, I don't see the goody young pitchers wanting to come to the southside of Chicago anytime soon. That, I think is a realistic option and conclusion tot he offseason (starting pitching wise) for the Sox.

 

The Rotation

 

Mark Buehrle

Freddy Garcia

Brad Radke

Jose Contreras

Jon Garland

I like radke also, however the sox won't offer a starting pitcher a 4 year contract.

[Butter Parque]

I was thinking either 3 or 4 years, both are options. But I do think its important to sign Radke. He completely stabalizes the rotation.

[witesoxfan]

Jason, I haven't looked at his stats, butI will assume this is a typo...

 

Contreras has a strong strikeout to walk ratio (7.93)...

 

 

Considering he struggled with his control, and he didn't really strike out a ton of people, I'm just going to assume this is K/9 and not K/BB, because a K/BB of around 8 is flat sickening...and I know he wasn't sickening.

[Gene Honda Civic]

I think there are a few similarities between Santana and Cotts, but the main difference isn't arm-speed/arm slot, it's the speed of the fastball. Santana routinely pops his above 95. Cotts sits at 91.

 

Cotts allowed only 9HR in 311IP in the minors. 14 in 78 in the Majors

Santana allowed 33HR in 380IP in the minors. 65 in 624IP in the Majors

 

I would compare him more to former White Sox Kieth Foulke(who came to the sox as a starter) I don't see neal making a jump to Closer anytime soon, but he's certainly a talent.

 

Foulke allowed 44HR in 458IP in the minors. 70 in 660IP in the Majors

 

Cotts main problem has been his propensity to give up the longball. He's been very frugal giving them up in the past. I'm not a pitching coach, but clearly there is something that he's doing wrong.

[Chisoxfn]

My bad, meant to say strikeout to innings pitched. Will fix it right now. As far as my assessment of Santana I didn't put this stats in, but maybe I should of.

 

I'm going to throw out Neals 2003 beacause it was just 4 starts and not near enough to make any type of assessment.

 

In 2004: 4-4, 4 Hlds, 65.1 Inn, 61 H, 58 K, 30 BB (Basically one every 2.17 innings). He also has a 1.93 K/BB and a 7.99 K/9.

 

Johan Santana

2000: 6.49 ERA in 86 innings. If I recall he was Rule V so this is pretty much him getting a lot of time and experience cause he couldn't be pitching down in the minors.

 

2001 he came up and did much better in 15 games. 4.74 ERA, 5.77 K/9

 

2002 his dominance began as he better developed his slider and changeup. It took him a lot of time and his stats jumped up.

 

Looking at Neal's minor league numbers, their is no reason to not think he couldn't make this jump. They definately share some similarities. He also had some of the control problems Neal did, but to a lesser extent.

 

I know this was a pretty radical statement, but from watching Neal, you can see hitters and they aren't comfortable against him. He still has to work on improving his secondary pitches. But from last year to this year his curve has come a long way and his changeup is getting better.

 

Is next year going to be the year it happens, I don't know, but it would be insane to give up on a guy that can make hitters look so foolish. I just think they have similar talent and that knack to hide a fastball well and get it on top of hitters is something you shouldn't estimate.

 

As far as previous player, I stick to my prior comparisons to Mark Langston. Many may of given up on Neal, but I am not one of those people. We'll see though and I'm not a proponent of giving him the job right away, but if the Sox go cheap, he's the best option..case closed, imo.

 

I don't want Diaz as a starter, Munoz is a reliever and Grilli and Stewart are ehhh.

 

I still say if the Sox can get Jerome Williams and a reliever or hell, Jerome Williams and AJ Pyrz (this would be a contract coming back and to be honest I see no chance in hell that the Giants would do this straight up, unless they really don't like Pyrz) then I would do the deal. I'd prefer seeing the contract essentially dumped and it is no secret that the Giants need a power bat in their lineup.

 

Williams is 22 so I'd say their is a great chance the Giants would scoff at this deal (Williams and a reliever or prospect for Konerko or Lee). He also has a 3.77 ERA in 43 career starts with 2 complete games and a shutout. If the Sox could get him, I'd do it in a heartbeat. Come to think of it, if Pyrz is on the market, you could legitimately see the Sox come up with a package deal to get him and a pitcher from the Giants. It would just involve more then just Konerko/Lee imo.

[Chisoxfn]

I think there are a few similarities between Santana and Cotts, but the main difference isn't arm-speed/arm slot, it's the speed of the fastball.  Santana routinely pops his above 95. Cotts sits at 91.

 

Cotts allowed only 9HR in 311IP in the minors. 14 in 78 in the Majors

Santana allowed 33HR in 380IP in the minors.  65 in 624IP in the Majors

 

I would compare him more to former White Sox Kieth Foulke(who came to the sox as a starter)  I don't see neal making a jump to Closer anytime soon, but he's certainly a talent.

 

Foulke allowed 44HR in 458IP in the minors.  70 in 660IP in the Majors

 

Cotts main problem has been his propensity to give up the longball.  He's been very frugal giving them up in the past.  I'm not a pitching coach, but clearly there is something that he's doing wrong.

I don't know how much of an effect its had, but to me, Neal Cotts changeup wasn't as effective this year as it was down in the minors. I'm hoping he'll make the necessary adjustments and improve upon it this year.

 

The big thing with Cotts was that he made some really foolish pitches, especially to left handers. I remember two times off the top of my head where he would throw them all fastballs and then try to trick a lefty with a changeup after this hitter has been doing nothing but fouling the ball off...what happened, kaboom and the ball left the building.

 

However, its one year in the bigs and his minor league numbers aren't something to look past. Its obvious hitters can't turn on him at the major league level and thats a hard to find talent, especially considering his velocity.

 

My stats on Santana weren't really comparing the two, just showing that he too had to develop, just like every other pitcher does. I always say Johan as a FB, changeup guy and then his slider came along and bam. Yes, he does throw harder like I mention ,but both have the same effect on keeping hitters from pulling their fastball.

 

Cotts, he was a fastball changeup guy and then started adding his curve, which has looked rather good at times this year, but tends to flatten out on ocassions as well. Plus hitters have it pretty easy cause Neal essentially only throws his fastball for a strike. The big thing is, even with them knowing whats coming they are behind more often then not. He's got a year in the league, understands some things he will have to improve on and we all knew command was one of his weaknesses entering the majors. He looked better at times this year throwing strikes and when he was on, he'd put up some very very good numbers out of the pen.

 

Like Johan, if he became a starter, I'd expect him to struggle making it deep into games for a while, simply because he tends to pitch with a higher pitch count, just like Johan did and in a sense still does (although not much during his insane 2nd half).

[Butter Parque]

Yeah, there are some similarities between Santana and Cotts, but I don't think he'll ever be as dominat as Johan. The key for Neal is going to be his control, if he could throw strikes, he's going to be a successfull pitcher quicker then many think. When you watch him go from his changeup to his fastball,; hitters couldn't touch it. But when he goes fastball to changeup, hitters get a hold of him. I still would like to see Cotts go to the bullpen next season and stay comfortable there. Then if we're out of it at the end of the season, i'd give him a chance to set him up for 2006. I think thats the year you'll see him starting every 5 days. This is all dependent on the White Sox either signing or acquiring (via trade) an established starting pitcher. If they don't, then maybe we should consider Neal in the rotation. But if I had my choice, i'd take radke over him for next year.