AFL Update #2

[Chisoxfn]

I also posted this in the FutureSox forum

 

AFL 2004 Update #2

By Jason Gage

October 22, 2004

FutureSox.com

 

The Arizona Fall League is upon us and the Mesa Solar Sox, whose roster is made up of 6 Sox farm-hands, have played 13 games (6-7) thus far. Lets take a look at a closer look at how the Sox farm hands are doing:

 

Brian Anderson, OF – R/R – March 11, 1982

.206 AVG, .303 OBP, 6 R, 2 2B, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 7 BB, 6 K, 1 SB (0 CS)

The good news is that Brian Anderson is playing. Anderson suffered from a hernia injury late in the 2004 season and is back getting at bats in the AFL. Anderson hasn’t put up great numbers thus far in the AFL, but is the White Sox top position prospect. The young outfielder has received glowing reviews from manager Ozzie Guillen and GM Ken Williams and will potentially get a shot to compete for a starting job this spring, although the odds are against him breaking camp as a starter. Anderson excelled in high A last year posting a .925 OPS with Winston Salem (High A) before being promoted to Birmingham (AA) where he hit .270 with 4 HR and 26 RBI’s while posting a .762 OPS in 48 games.

 

Pedro Lopez, 2B/SS – R/R – April 28, 1984

.318 AVG, .308 OBP, 2 R, 0 2B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K, 0 SB

Lopez, 20, replaced shortstop Andy Gonzalez on the AFL roster. This was a wise decision considering Lopez is more advanced with the bat and was less likely to struggle in the AFL. Thus far Lopez is putting up solid offensive numbers, although as usual he has an atrocious OBP (.328 with the Warthogs last year; .379 OBP in 7 games with Bham). One of the big weaknesses has been the lack of walks. And if he ever wants to be a top of an order guy, he’s going to have to improve upon this, but he does have time. Defensively Lopez has soft hands, a good arm, and good range. Him, Gonzalez and Valido have all the tools to be plus defensive middle infielders. The question with all three of them is the bat, and at this point Lopez is the most advanced in that category.

 

Casey Rogowksi, 1B/OF – L/L – May 1, 1981

.409 AVG, .536 OBP, 4 R, 2 2B, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 6 BB, 2 K, 1 SB (1 CS)

Rogowski, 23, continues to rake the ball. He had an outstanding 2004 campaign with the Warthogs and has seen some development in the power aspect of the game (18 HR’s in 2004). Rogowski has a good eye and is able to work the counts (.401 OBP in 04, Career .380 OBP). He’s played 4 games in the OF and two at first base. Up until late last season Rogowski had only been thought of as a first baseman, but that appears to of changed and Rogowski could find himself in the Barons outfield next year, along with Ryan Sweeney. Rogowski runs well for a big man and uses all parts of the field.

 

Jeff Bajenaru, Reliever – R/R – March 21, 1978

0-1, 10.80 ERA, 5.0 INN, 7 H, 6 R, 5 K, 1 BB

Bajenaru has been mired in a mini slump ever since being called up to the big leagues. Baj pitched better then his numbers would indicate at the major league level, but is struggling again in the fall league. Baj should get a shot to compete in training camp for a position with the Sox, but with Politte signing a new contract, Takatsu’s option being picked up, and the persistent reports of the Sox looking to sign another set up man, the margin of error will be small as Felix Diaz, Arnie Munoz, Jon Adkins and him all compete for what could be the only open bullpen spot come spring training. Baj has a good fastball and slider (“slutter”) and does a nice job mixing his pitches. He had a tremendous season with Birmingham (1.34 ERA, .89 WHIP, 13.63 K/9) and Charlotte (1.80 ERA, .75 WHIP, 7.20 K/9) and is a favorite of FutureSox.com.

 

Matt Smith, Reliever – RHP – August 14, 1978

1-0, 0.00 ERA, 8.1 INN, 11 H, 0 R, 4 K, 3 BB

Smith has been sharp in Arizona, although his peripherals aren’t that great. Averaging about 4.5 strikeouts per 9 while giving up over a hit per inning pitch isn’t the way you succeed at the majors, but he’s got the job done thus far. Smith had a very strong campaign for the Barons (3-4, 13 SV, 70 G, 1.83 ERA, 1.07 WHIP). He was the setup man for Bajenaru and then stepped into the closers spot when Bajenaru was promoted to Charlotte. Smith is a guy that’s way off the radar, but could find himself on the roster next September as a call-up.

 

Dennis Ulacia, Starter – LHP – April 2, 1981

0-0, 6.10 ERA, 10.1 INN, 13 H, 9 R (7 ER), 8 K, 5 BB

Ulacia is what you would consider a fringe prospect, but with Brandon McCarthy removed from the fall league roster Ulacia was given the opportunity to be a starter. He hasn’t pitched extremely well, but did have a solid season for Bham (8-8, 3.77 ERA, 28 G, 23 GS, 7.47 K/9) and Charlotte (1.42 ERA in 1 start). He can pitch out of both the pen and rotation. He doesn’t project to be a major league starter, but has a shot at making it with some team out of the pen.

[Rowand44]

Jas, I thought I heard rogo was a pretty good defensive first basemen, why do they want to move him to the outfield??

[Chisoxfn]

Jas, I thought I heard rogo was a pretty good defensive first basemen, why do they want to move him to the outfield??

I think as just an option. He's a little short and doens't quite have the pop the average first baseman has. To be honest, I think Rogo is a good defensive first baseman and I'd leave him there, but this adds versatility and probably helps him in his path to the majors.

 

He also is a good base runner. I'm interested in seeing how he does this year in Bham.

[Brian]

How does Pedro Lopez have an OBP less than his BA? Is that possible or type?

[santo=dorf]

How does Pedro Lopez have an OBP less than his BA? Is that possible or type?

Happened to Robbie Alomar earlier this year. Suppose a guy has a sac fly, but has yet to draw a walk. His OBP will be lower than his BA.

[Chisoxfn]

Its possible. I think its because he has a sacrifice or two and while those don't count as at bats to the average I think they count as at bats in regards to his OBP.

 

Someone can check me on that though.

[TLAK]

Its possible.  I think its because he has a sacrifice or two and while those don't count as at bats to the average I think they count as at bats in regards to his OBP. 

 

Someone can check me on that though.

You are right again. Can somebody justify counting SF but not SH in this formula?

 

From Baseball Reference:

 

OBP - On-Base Percentage (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+SF+HBP)

 

Stats from BaseBall America:

[Flash Tizzle]

Brian Anderson, OF – R/R – March 11, 1982

.206 AVG, .303 OBP, 6 R, 2 2B, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 7 BB, 6 K, 1 SB (0 CS)

The good news is that Brian Anderson is playing. Anderson suffered from a hernia injury late in the 2004 season and is back getting at bats in the AFL. Anderson hasn’t put up great numbers thus far in the AFL, but is the White Sox top position prospect. The young outfielder has received glowing reviews from manager Ozzie Guillen and GM Ken Williams and will potentially get a shot to compete for a starting job this spring, although the odds are against him breaking camp as a starter. Anderson excelled in high A last year posting a .925 OPS with Winston Salem (High A) before being promoted to Birmingham (AA) where he hit .270 with 4 HR and 26 RBI’s while posting a .762 OPS in 48 games.

Jason, how many AB's are these stats based off of? Figure atleast 21.

 

With the expectations our organization is placing upon Anderson, I expect these numbers to climb with more AB's and further recovery time.

 

Sox can't afford any setbacks with him.

[AddisonStSox]

I am so excited about Anderson. BUT...that doesn't mean the Sox should go ahead and rush him. I'm a little worried about two guys. I'm worried that they are gonna rush Anderson, and I'm worried they are gonna rush Fields. I am really happy with the numbers Fields is putting up; I was worried that after handing off to Tatum Bell for a few years he would be a bust. Let's hope both Anderson and Fields are given ample time.

[Chisoxfn]

Jason, how many AB's are these stats based off of?  Figure atleast 21.

 

With the expectations our organization is placing upon Anderson, I expect these numbers to climb with more AB's and further recovery time.

 

Sox can't afford any setbacks with him.

34 at bats and I'm with you, I think as he gets more at bats, he'll get back in a groove. Although he's not gonna get too many ab's in the AFL, this is just a nice way to ease him in before spring training.

 

On a sidenote, I don't know much on his health situation, but I'm assuming he's 100% cause I don't think the Sox would chance it otherwise.

 

At the end of the season he was suffering from what was being rumored to be a hernia as well as a groin injury. The latest I knew was he wasn't planning on having surgery on the hernia, although it may of turned out that wasn't it.

[Molto]

I think as just an option.  He's a little short and doens't quite have the pop the average first baseman has.  To be honest, I think Rogo is a good defensive first baseman and I'd leave him there, but this adds versatility and probably helps him in his path to the majors. 

 

He also is a good base runner.  I'm interested in seeing how he does this year in Bham.

Rogowski is definitely a good defense first baseman, but as you said, I think it's done to give him more options and a better chance. It's pretty clear him staying at first base wasn't helping his chance.

[chisox05]

Wow, rogowski has really impressed me statwise in the minors and thusfar in afl. I mean this looks like a twins prospect, 91 walks in minors, high slg and good power.

 

This guy has placed himself in a situation where if he starts the season off well in aa and we r struggling at 1b or dh, we could clear room for him. Hopefully this guy isnt just another wsox minor league player, but i have really hi hopes for him.

 

Matt Smith has impressed me a lot statwise as well. Ive never seen him before and dont know if he has mlb stuff or not but he definetely is improving his value.

[DBAHO]

I'm very worried too about the Sox rushing Anderson. KW said in a Southtown interview, that if there was 1 more injury to an outfield guy, Anderson would have been called up. Realistically he should stay in Charlotte for 2005, and I wouldn't be fooled if he has good numbers there too much. Pretty sure it's a hitters park down in Charlotte, as evidenced by the fairly poor numbers from the pitchers down there in recent years.

[DBAHO]

Wow, rogowski has really impressed me statwise in the minors and thusfar in afl.  I mean this looks like a twins prospect, 91 walks in minors, high slg and good power.

 

This guy has placed himself in a situation where if he starts the season off well in aa and we r struggling at 1b or dh, we could clear room for him.  Hopefully this guy isnt just another wsox minor league player, but i have really hi hopes for him.

 

Matt Smith has impressed me a lot statwise as well.  Ive never seen him before and dont know if he has mlb stuff or not but he definetely is improving his value.

Even if Konerko is moved, Gload should be given a couple of years at least for the Sox, if he can produce consistently, as he did when given the chance later in the year. Another big year for Rogo next season, if he can produce in Birmingham, there's a chance we could see him with the Sox sooner than we think, especially considering Frank Thomas won't likely be back in 2006. That leaves a big hole there in the DH role, although it could go to an outfield guy like Borchard or Escobar if they can actually live up to their vast potential.