Deja Vu

[Chisoxfn]

I liked Beck's thread title and I just wrote an entry originally talking about RJ and then veering off into a tangent comparing the 1996/1997 offseason to this upcoming one.

 

his weekend the Daily Southown reported that White Sox General Manager plans on contacting the Arizona Diamondbacks about the possibility of a deal that would send the Dbacks ace, Randy Johnson, to the South Side of Chicago.

 

At this point this rumor has to be taken as pure speculation, although it was widely reported that the White Sox were very interested in him at the trade deadline. At the time of the deadline reports were that the Sox package would have to start at Aaron Rowand, Jon Garland, and a prospect.

 

With one year and 16.5 million remaining on his contract, it is evident in my mind that a package along those lines would be damaging to the White Sox. There is no doubt that Randy Johnson at the top of the rotation would make their pitching staff vastly superior to anyone else in the division, but at the same time, they would be creating numerous long term holes for a one year solution.

 

If the Sox are able and capable of adding payroll, they could target one of the A’s big three as it appears that one of Hudson, Zito, and Mulder will be on the block. The most likely to be dealt is Barry Zito, who had a down year in Oakland but has proven himself as an ace.

 

A package to acquire Zito should also be less costly (in terms of everyday players and quality of prospects) and is also a better long term solution. The Southtown article also went on to speculate that if the price was too steep for Johnson or if he wasn’t willing to accept a trade to the South Side, that Williams would target another ace, possibly via free agency.

 

However, like I’ve made mention on multiple occasions, at this point, while the FA market for starting pitching is strong, there are no sure-fire aces on the market. However, there are a few players with the potential to turn into aces and one aging ace (Pedro Martinez).

 

Could this off-season have a similar fate to the 1997 off-season. An off-season in which the White Sox thought long and hard about Roger Clemens, the Red Sox ace, but in the end felt he was past his prime, as did numerous other teams, when Clemens eventually landed in Toronto. Instead the Sox opted to get a “developing” ace in Jamie Navarro and offered him what was then the fattest contract ever offered to a pitcher (in White Sox history).

 

We all know what happened from their. Navarro literally got fat from his contract and reported to camp out of shape. Unlike one of his predecessors, Bartolo Colon, Navarro proved he was unable to pitch at that weight and turned into one of the biggest busts in the modern era of the White Sox. It ranks right their with the Todd Ritchie deal in my mind.

 

The only bright side in Jamie Navarro was the eventual trade out of Chicago, when he and RHP John Snyder were sent to Milwaukee for Jose Valentin and Carl Eldred. Those two pieces, along with a young nucleus of hitters, and James Baldwin, helped catapult the White Sox to the 2000 division title.

 

Could Pedro be the next Boston ace that appears to be on the downside of his career, but instead, an ace on the brink of re-inventing himself someplace else? Who knows, but is it a risk worth taking, considering the “Bosses” need for a few more able starters in New York?

[southsider2k5]

Good connection. Also I think this is getting to be a key year for KW. He has been here plenty long, and he has had enough time to get his own players and coaches here. This year has got to be a pivitol year for the KW regime. If he doesn't do something this year, he could be on his way out soon. It is really getting time to see some results.

[whitesox61382]

That is a very interesting comparison. The only concern I have with Pedro is his size. Clemens is a big boy at 6'4 230, and has the body to be a power pitcher into his late 30's/early 40's. Pedro on the other hand is listed at 5'11 180. I meet Perdo when I was in school in New England, and he is nowhere close to that listing. I was with a friend that is about 5'8, and Pedro and he were eye to eye. Pedro is no bigger than 5'9 170(if that). It is amazing that he has been able to throw as hard as he has for so many years, but at that size I question him being able to keep it up into his mid-late 30's. If Perdo loses 3-4 mph of his fastball(showed some signs this season and saw an increase in ERA), than he will be no better than a middle of the rotation pitcher(if that). With him looking for 10+M/yr, that is a large chunk of change to invest in a potential middle of the rotation pitcher. A big market team has the finances to take that kind of risk, but the Sox do not.

[Lefty Of Love]

If the Sox are able and capable of adding payroll, they could target one of the A’s big three as it appears that one of Hudson, Zito, and Mulder will be on the block. The most likely to be dealt is Barry Zito, who had a down year in Oakland but has proven himself as an ace.

If history is any indication, any deal with the A's (even involving one of the big 3) will end up with Billy Beane robbing us blind.

 

That being said, Mulder went to Thornton High School (If I remember right) and grew up a Sox fan....would be cool to bring a stud like that back to where he's from.

[jackie hayes]

That is a very interesting comparison. The only concern I have with Pedro is his size. Clemens is a big boy at 6'4 230, and has the body to be a power pitcher into his late 30's/early 40's. Pedro on the other hand is listed at 5'11 180. I meet Perdo when I was in school in New England, and he is nowhere close to that listing. I was with a friend that is about 5'8, and Pedro and he were eye to eye. Pedro is no bigger than 5'9 170(if that). It is amazing that he has been able to throw as hard as he has for so many years, but at that size I question him being able to keep it up into his mid-late 30's. If Perdo loses 3-4 mph of his fastball(showed some signs this season and saw an increase in ERA), than he will be no better than a middle of the rotation pitcher(if that). With him looking for 10+M/yr, that is a large chunk of change to invest in a potential middle of the rotation pitcher. A big market team has the finances to take that kind of risk, but the Sox do not.

I'm sceptical about the height -- I admit I've never met either one, but just comparing him to Mike Hampton, I think he's got to be taller than 5'9".

[redandwhite]

I love this idea. Your willing to pay 16.5 for Randy Johnson but unwilling to pay 14 for a younger Pedro Martinez?

[santo=dorf]

I love this idea.  Your willing to pay 16.5 for Randy Johnson but unwilling to pay 14 for a younger Pedro Martinez?

You're not your.

 

We'll pay Randy $16.5 million for one year, but how much do we have to give Pedro? 14 million per year for how many years?

 

And salaries aside, for 2005 I would take RJ over Pedro.

[YASNY]

You're not your.

 

We'll pay Randy $16.5 million for one year, but how much do we have to give Pedro?  14 million per year for how many years? 

 

And salaries aside, for 2005 I would take RJ over Pedro.

Speaking stricly about contract vs. probable return, Pedro is definitely more of a risk than Johnson. Pedro has showing signs of beginning to break down, as he's had some nagging arm problems over the past few years. However, when you take into consideration that Johnson would have to be acquired via trade, Pedro does not look like such a bad gamble.

[santo=dorf]

Speaking stricly about contract vs. probable return, Pedro is definitely more of a risk than Johnson.  Pedro has showing signs of beginning to break down, as he's had some nagging arm problems over the past few years.  However, when you take into consideration that Johnson would have to be acquired via trade, Pedro does not look like such a bad gamble.

Yeah, I too am sick of seeing us acquiring our pitchers by giving up talent, but we would be putting ourselves in a financial mess for the next 2 years if we sign a FA pitcher rather than trade for one. If we did sign Pedro for 3 years at 14 per, we would have around $34-37 million spent on 4 pitchers for 2005 and 2006. It's a hard call to make, and I'm glad that I'm not the one who has make the decision.

[DBAHO]

The thing that worries me about Pedro is that he doesn't go a lot past 6 innings a start now. Personally if I'm KW, I forget about acquiring RJ or Pedro. I go out and sign Odalis Perez, and use the money we'd save on this deal instead of signing one of the other 2, on a closer or an infielder like Vizquel.

[YASNY]

You look at what Schilling is doing for the Red Sox right now and you can understand why KW wants a pitcher like Randy Johnson. However, that type of thing doesn't always work out. For example, this was exactly the reason we went out and got David Wells prior to 2001. Another example is this year with Kevin Brown and the Yankees. Adding Maddux to the Cubs all but guarenteed them the brass ring. But again, even though Maduux did not disappoint, things just didn't work out for a multitude of other reasons. If we were able to get to the playoffs though, it sure would be nice to trot RJ out to mound for a game 7 somewhere along the way.

[beck72]

It's a tough call to make. But I think the Sox would be better served going after an ace who doesn't have a long term contract--such as Randy, Zito, Hudson. the Sox already have 3 SP's locked in to long term, guaranteed deals. Having all that money on pitching, when its the most likely position to have a player get a career threatening injury, is pretty risky. The Trade route, rather than the FA route seems the best bet for the Sox to get an ace.

[Rowand44]

I love this idea.  Your willing to pay 16.5 for Randy Johnson but unwilling to pay 14 for a younger Pedro Martinez?

Maybe because RJ is still absolutely dominate and Pedro isn't.

[qwerty]

Maybe because RJ is still absolutely dominate and Pedro isn't.

Don't say that.

[witesoxfan]

I love this idea.  Your willing to pay 16.5 for Randy Johnson but unwilling to pay 14 for a younger Pedro Martinez?

Randy Johnson - 16-14, 2.60, .197 BAA, 0.90 WHIP, K/9 of 10.6, K/BB of 6.5 in 245.6 innings...and he did all that for a team that lost 111 games. That means they won 51 games. That means that Randy Johnson accounted for 31.4% of their wins as a starter. That's Carlton-esque.

 

His cost is $16.5 mill for 1 year...meaning he's going to cost the White Sox a guaranteed $16.5 million, and if they are lucky(meaning RJ is really good and the White Sox do good things with him), more. If not, he gone...it's that easy.

 

Pedro Martinez - 16-9, 3.90, .238 BAA, 1.17 WHIP, K/9 of 9, K/BB of 3.7 in 217 innings...that means he won the same amount of games that Randy Johnson did for a team that won 98 games. He didn't lead his team in wins, he didn't lead his team in ERA...AND HE WANTS $14 MILL? Those stats look like a $10 mill pitcher to me at the very most, and those are not the numbers of an ace.

 

He is going to cost you probably $45-55 mill over 3 years, or $60-70 mill over 4...and he definately showed signs of wearing down this year.

 

So you tell me...which is riskier, getting a guy in FA who will cost you $45 mill over 3 years, or getting a guy that will cost you $16.5 for one year? Also consider that getting the guy with $16.5 mill will take away a big contract too.

 

 

Red, you're a good poster...but your Red Sox bias has definately gotten in the way here. I would much, much rather have RJ over Pedro next year, and you'd almost have to be crazy to disagree.

[beck72]

Yeah, I too am sick of seeing us acquiring our pitchers by giving up talent, but we would be putting ourselves in a financial mess for the next 2 years if we sign a FA pitcher rather than trade for one.  If we did sign Pedro for 3 years at 14 per, we would have around $34-37 million spent on 4 pitchers for 2005 and 2006.  It's a hard call to make, and I'm glad that I'm not the one who has make the decision.

Except if a guy like Pedro was signed for 4 years and he broke down after 1, how many players could the Sox have signed for those lost dollars?

 

The key to the sox is they already have 3 SP's locked in to expensive, multi yr deals. They add 4 SP's to this and it increases the likelihood of someone going down for an extended time.

 

A 1 yr deal doesn't sound that bad if it's for a stud like Johnson.

[YASNY]

Except if a guy like Pedro was signed for 4 years and he broke down after 1, how many players could the Sox have signed for those lost dollars?

 

The key to the sox is they already have 3 SP's locked in to expensive, multi yr deals. They add 4 SP's to this and it increases the likelihood of someone going down for an extended time.

 

A 1 yr deal doesn't sound that bad if it's for a stud like Johnson.

You can look at this in another way, though. If the Sox have, for example, Buehrle, Garcia and Hudson locked up for 3 years and one of them, say Buehrle, goes down. Would you rather build a rotation around Garcia and Hudson, or Garcia and 4 question marks?

[beck72]

You can look at this in another way, though.  If the Sox have, for example, Buehrle, Garcia and Hudson locked up for 3 years and one of them, say Buehrle, goes down.  Would you rather build a rotation around Garcia and Hudson, or Garcia and 4 question marks?

I would target a SP who could be a FA after 2005, who the sox might be able to resign. Tim Hudson would be on the list, so would Randy Johnson. I'm not sure who else fits that category. But it would have to come about through trade.

 

My take is the Sox have 2005 to see if Contreras and Garland will be back in 2006. Both may be fine, or one or both may be losers the sox want no part of. [though w/ contreras, their stuck w/ him for '06 regardless]

 

Yet if the sox sign a FA now to a long term deal, just to get by [like a Russ Ortiz] they wouldn't be in a position to get a #1 or #2 if one becomes available.