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Election Night is here...


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Yes... but aren't there a lot of mail in ballots or whatever in Ohio.

Or am I hollusinating?  God damn I'm tired.

ok...Maybe these Ohio Election Judges are purposely making us all fall asleep so they can announce the winner without without getting some attention. If they don't announce a winner by 1.30 am chicago time, I will go to bed.

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If the Dems get 50-50 out of absentee ballots, they're damn lucky. If they have to hang their hat on that, they're screwed.

 

I have to think (especially after seeing Virginia and the Carolinas) that the networks are really being quite careful with projections this year. Ohio would really take some divine inspiration. It's over, go to sleep and get the worst nightmares out of the way -- Bush holds on.

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I should put a small caveat on something I said earlier -- if the conditional ballots are VERY strongly Dem, and if Kerry does surprisingly well in the yet uncounted vote, then I guess he has some small chance. The models don't really capture these "conditional votes", after all. But I still think the odds of any change are puny.

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I should put a small caveat on something I said earlier -- if the conditional ballots are VERY strongly Dem, and if Kerry does surprisingly well in the yet uncounted vote, then I guess he has some small chance.  The models don't really capture these "conditional votes", after all.  But I still think the odds of any change are puny.

read somewhere else that the last time that provisional ballots had to be used was in IL some years ago. 11% of the provisional ballots were considered valid and counted. In other words, it's over.

 

If Kerry drags this out past tomorrow he will disgrace his party.

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On several swing states, and EVERY STATE that has E-Voting but no paper trails has an unexplained advantage for Bush of around +5% when comparing exit polls to actual results.

 

In EVERY STATE that has paper audit trails on their E-Voting, the exit poll results match the actual results reported within the margin of error.

 

So we have MATCHING RESULTS for exit polls vs. voting with audits

 

vs.

 

A 5% unexplained advantage for Bush without audits.

 

A very strange anomaly indeed. Anomaly my ass.

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On several swing states, and EVERY STATE that has E-Voting but no paper trails has an unexplained advantage for Bush of around +5% when comparing exit polls to actual results.

 

In EVERY STATE that has paper audit trails on their E-Voting, the exit poll results match the actual results reported within the margin of error.

 

So we have MATCHING RESULTS for exit polls vs. voting with audits

 

vs.

 

A 5% unexplained advantage for Bush without audits.

 

A very strange anomaly indeed. Anomaly my ass.

I saw on Fox News they had a Democrat Attorney outside one of the counties in Ohio that the Democrats were expected to win easily but that was not the case.

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On several swing states, and EVERY STATE that has E-Voting but no paper trails has an unexplained advantage for Bush of around +5% when comparing exit polls to actual results.

 

In EVERY STATE that has paper audit trails on their E-Voting, the exit poll results match the actual results reported within the margin of error.

 

So we have MATCHING RESULTS for exit polls vs. voting with audits

 

vs.

 

A 5% unexplained advantage for Bush without audits.

 

A very strange anomaly indeed. Anomaly my ass.

Of course here's APU with the conspiracy theories. That took longer than I thought it would.

 

Why can't you just admit it when your side loses?

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4 More Years Baby :headbang

 

Now gotta get myself back to watching the news.  My prediction: Iowa, Ohio, Nevada and New Mexico all go for Bush.

Nevada has already been called for Bush, Iowa should follow soon and Wisconsin looks like its going Kerry's way.

 

In Ohio Bush leads by over 145,000 votes. That means Kerry would have to win 80 something % of the provisional/absentee votes to take the state. Not happening.

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