santo=dorf Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 Red Sox wins by rotation: 73, 95 total wins Oakland wins by rotation: 62, 91 total wins St. Louis wins by rotation: 72, 105 total wins Braves wins by rotation: 65, 96 total wins And I said with a rotation of either Grilli or Diaz getting just 4-6 wins, our rotation could win between 70-81 games. You said it would take 90 games to win the division. See how much having Randy in the rotation improves the 5th starter's spot? The St. Louis Cardinals had a well rounded 1-5 rotation, but they didn't have anyone dominating like a Schilling, Pedro, or Johnson. Now do you see why I think we should get RJ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 Who do you think we will be able to sign, why, and at what price? The only guy I can think of is Russ Ortiz, and I don't think he can win 13-14 games with the Sox. I think RJ could win 20 games with us because with the exception of Detroit, he owns the AL Central. And I find the argument of "he's going to be playing in a hitter's park" weak because a.) he is a strikeout pitcher, and b.)our offensive plays at the same ballpark at the same time as the other team. Randy may not win games by a score of 3-1 at USCF, but I see him winning a lot of 7-4, 8-5 games. You say it'll take at least 90 wins to win the division, and I have given you 71-80, which means it would take 10-19 comeback wins, bullpen victories, or extra innings victories to win the division. Look up and tell which 5 man rotation had the most wins last year and if it was anywhere close to the 71-80 figure that I projected. And this talk about "it'll take a 5th starter with 8-12 wins to make it happen" makes no sense to me. Do we still need a fifth starter with 8-12 wins after we get RJ? Starters we could possibly sign include Odalis Perez (interested in him possibly for Konerko last off-season), Jon Lieber (could be had for $5 to $6 million), Jaret Wright, Matt Clement just to name a few. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackie hayes Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 I am for trading for RJ...but am not in favor of doing it if it involves Garland while not getting a good replacement for Garland. Trading Konerko and Garland, to me, restricts the team way too much financially and does not really help us win a whole lot more ball games. Agreed. That 5th spot is too big a hole. At best, RJ+black hole is even with Garland+fa. (Unless that fa is Russ Ortiz, maybe. I just died a little inside.) I would love to get RJ, even if it's just for one run in 2005, but it'll be too hard to make the playoffs if our fifth starter problem isn't straightened out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 Randy Johnson was 13-2 this year when the d-backs scored 2 or more runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 Red Sox wins by rotation: 73, 95 total wins Oakland wins by rotation: 62, 91 total wins St. Louis wins by rotation: 72, 105 total wins Braves wins by rotation: 65, 96 total wins And I said with a rotation of either Grilli or Diaz getting just 4-6 wins, our rotation could win between 71-80 games. You said it would take 90 games to win the division. See how much having Randy in the rotation improves the 5th starter's spot? The St. Louis Cardinals had a well rounded 1-5 rotation, but they didn't have anyone dominating like a Schilling, Pedro, or Johnson. Now do you see why I think we should get RJ? All those teams have pretty good bullpens. We are banking on Shingo having another great year in the closer's spot, and Marte returning to his 2002 - 2003 form. The Cardinals did make the World Series without any top - notch starters so it can be done. Buerhle and Garcia are 2 pretty damn good options to throw out for a World Series though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
santo=dorf Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 That's flawed logic. You are using 5 starters with RJ compared to the 4 of the one without RJ, but have Garland remain in the #5 hole, suggesting that we would sign a SP. If that were to be the case...you'd have to assume 10 wins out of that spot in the rotation...and perhaps knock it up to between 15 and 18 wins too. Once that is done, it is a lot clearer that RJ does not help the team nearly as much as one would like in the regular season. The postseason is an entirely different beast...a rotation of RJ-Garcia-Buehrle is top notch. I am for trading for RJ...but am not in favor of doing it if it involves Garland while not getting a good replacement for Garland. Trading Konerko and Garland, to me, restricts the team way too much financially and does not really help us win a whole lot more ball games. Wite, I subtracted the difference to show how many games a FA starter would have to win in order to match a rotation that contained RJ and either Diaz or Grilli. Under my assumtions it would take 13-14 wins by a FA to match my ideal rotation. Buehrle (18-20 Wins) Garcia (16-18 Wins) FA, (13-14 wins) Contreras (12-15 Wins) Garland (11-14 Wins) Total: 70-81 wins. Which rotation would you rather have for the playoffs assuming both of them would get you there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxAce Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 The Cardinals did make the World Series without any top - notch starters so it can be done. But did they win it? I'm all for having the Sox go to the W.S. I think it's a great honor. But I don't want to see them just show up and lose, and I'm sure the sox players don't want that eigher. Cards got swept. Bosox had a hellofa rotation and a hellofa team. If you want to win a W.S., you have to get an ace or a top notch starter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackie hayes Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 Red Sox wins by rotation: 73, 95 total wins Oakland wins by rotation: 62, 91 total wins St. Louis wins by rotation: 72, 105 total wins Braves wins by rotation: 65, 96 total wins And I said with a rotation of either Grilli or Diaz getting just 4-6 wins, our rotation could win between 71-80 games. You said it would take 90 games to win the division. See how much having Randy in the rotation improves the 5th starter's spot? The St. Louis Cardinals had a well rounded 1-5 rotation, but they didn't have anyone dominating like a Schilling, Pedro, or Johnson. Now do you see why I think we should get RJ? I agree w/ you about getting RJ, but your projection used the word "potential" -- rightly, I think. Counting on 20-22 wins from RJ is somewhat optimistic. It wouldn't surprise me if he only gets 14-20 b/c of injuries. But even w/ that, he could still be the missing piece, if we fix our 5th starter puzzle. Even if RJ goes the whole season w/o missing time, the odds that there are no injuries at all to our starters is pretty slim. Imagine having 2 of our #5 pitchers going for a few weeks -- you can lose a lot of ground to the Twins in that time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babybearhater Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 Starters we could possibly sign include Odalis Perez (interested in him possibly for Konerko last off-season), Jon Lieber (could be had for $5 to $6 million), Jaret Wright, Matt Clement just to name a few. and how many of those listed put up CY young type numbers last season. And how many have they won. And how many world series games have they played in. Thats like going to a steak house and saying, well this meat is good, but there is a burger king available right over there that is the same Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
santo=dorf Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 All those teams have pretty good bullpens. We are banking on Shingo having another great year in the closer's spot, and Marte returning to his 2002 - 2003 form. The Cardinals did make the World Series without any top - notch starters so it can be done. Buerhle and Garcia are 2 pretty damn good options to throw out for a World Series though. Yeah, but what happened to the Cards when they got there and ran into dominating pitching? They didn't get the lead for a single inning. How do you propose to improve our bullpen? Trade Konerko to sign Percival? If we are going to sign a FA starter, we won't have money to sign a bullpen guy. I can live with a bullpen composed of Politte, Cotts, Adkins, Marte, Shingo, and a couple of failed starters. I don't think we need to shell out big $$$ for bullpen guys, I think it's stupid to pay a guy like Billy Wagner $9 million to pitch 70 innings tops per year when a guy like Julian Tavarez can go the entire year with only giving up 1 homer. Just my $.02 on bullpen salaries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
santo=dorf Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 Could somebody here please tell me why you are so worried about Randy possibly getting injured? What did he do last year that makes you think he won't be able to be healthy for 2005? Yes he had surgery in 2003, but how did he come back? And how come I don't see as many people worried about Frank Thomas and Carl Everett, both of whom are coming back from injuries in 2004? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 I don't know why everyone keeps bringing up injuries with Johnson... In the past 7 season's he has only had less than 34 starts once... In the past 7 season's he's only had an ERA above 3.00 twice... and one was the injury shortened season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 Could somebody here please tell me why you are so worried about Randy possibly getting injured? What did he do last year that makes you think he won't be able to be healthy for 2005? Yes he had surgery in 2003, but how did he come back? And how come I don't see as many people worried about Frank Thomas and Carl Everett, both of whom are coming back from injuries in 2004? He's fragile... a little girly man. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punch and Judy Garland Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 A good rotation that eats a lot of innings (the Cards this year) can make a solid bullpen into a very good one. Just to clarify, Bank One in AZ is a hitter's park. I think that someone made the point about 3-4 easy outs he will lose out on, but the flip side is that without the pitcher hitting he will not be pulled for a ph like he was in all of those tied and one run games. At this point, I believe the parameters of the trade will change. I anticipate the Cardinals putting together a package around the likes of Haren, Ankiel, and Gall or Haren, Wainright, and Gall. I believe our package will have to include only one of Konerko or Garland and then 2 of our top prospects. I say that if we trade for RJ, we try not to include Garland. If you are going to trade for RJ then you are obviously trying to make a run at the whole thing so deal the prospects to get it done. We should take our shot this year and then rebuild afterwards. I think while we aren't in the greatest shape, we could be close enough to try for it all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redandwhite Posted November 9, 2004 Author Share Posted November 9, 2004 Yeah, but what happened to the Cards when they got there and ran into dominating pitching? They didn't get the lead for a single inning. How do you propose to improve our bullpen? Trade Konerko to sign Percival? If we are going to sign a FA starter, we won't have money to sign a bullpen guy. I can live with a bullpen composed of Politte, Cotts, Adkins, Marte, Shingo, and a couple of failed starters. I don't think we need to shell out big $$$ for bullpen guys, I think it's stupid to pay a guy like Billy Wagner $9 million to pitch 70 innings tops per year when a guy like Julian Tavarez can go the entire year with only giving up 1 homer. Just my $.02 on bullpen salaries. This deal puts us even out of Julian Tavarez range. The White Sox would then rely on the Munoz', Diaz' and Grilli's out of the bullpen and some minimum salary players on the bench. While if you go after an Ortiz, a Perez, or a Morris you'll be able to have money for the proven relievers, and proven bench players. Depth. It's why the Red Sox won the World Series. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 I don't know why everyone keeps bringing up injuries with Johnson... In the past 7 season's he has only had less than 34 starts once... In the past 7 season's he's only had an ERA above 3.00 twice... and one was the injury shortened season. I suppose it's just with his age he's getting less durable and there's always the chance of injury with him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackie hayes Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 Could somebody here please tell me why you are so worried about Randy possibly getting injured? What did he do last year that makes you think he won't be able to be healthy for 2005? Yes he had surgery in 2003, but how did he come back? And how come I don't see as many people worried about Frank Thomas and Carl Everett, both of whom are coming back from injuries in 2004? If anyone knows any more, correct me, but I was under the impression that he has very little cartilage left in his right knee. Maybe that's not a problem, I don't know, but that plus the fact that he's taking those shots before pitching worries me a little. Is there a doctor in the house? But it's not just RJ, it's the whole staff you have to worry about. If you have a marginal 5th guy, and a 2-4 goes down -- or if Jose Contreras melts down midseason -- you've now got two marginals on your staff. After last season, that sounds like a huge risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxAce Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 I suppose it's just with his age he's getting less durable and there's always the chance of injury with him. How's Roger Clemens? How's Greg Maddux? Johnson has been putting up similar numbers during his late 30's early 40's for quite some time now. That's why these guys are future Hall Of Famers. They can still pitch and be dominent even at 40+ (even though Maddux is alittle younger) I'm still amazed that Clemens and Johnson still throw 93-98+ at will. And of course there's Maddux who is an exception to any rule in baseball that you don't have to throw hard to get people out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
santo=dorf Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 I don't know why everyone keeps bringing up injuries with Johnson... In the past 7 season's he has only had less than 34 starts once... In the past 7 season's he's only had an ERA above 3.00 twice... and one was the injury shortened season. And in that injury season 2003, his ERA (4.26) was STILL better than Garland's in 2002, 2003, 2004 when he was in the rotation for the entire year. I guess Garland is "due" to have a better ERA than Johnson sometime in the next 10 years. :rolly :dips*** Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
santo=dorf Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 This deal puts us even out of Julian Tavarez range. The White Sox would then rely on the Munoz', Diaz' and Grilli's out of the bullpen and some minimum salary players on the bench. While if you go after an Ortiz, a Perez, or a Morris you'll be able to have money for the proven relievers, and proven bench players. Depth. It's why the Red Sox won the World Series. The only way we would be able to sign a bullpen guys would be if we dumped Konerko. I'm not for the idea of dumping Konerko just so we can sign some guy who'll pitch 60 innnings for us. $$$$ is also a big reason why the Red Sox won the World Series. The White Sox can't afford to sign Perez, and a bullpen guy. What did the 2000 Sox bullpen look like? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redandwhite Posted November 9, 2004 Author Share Posted November 9, 2004 The only way we would be able to sign a bullpen guys would be if we dumped Konerko. I'm not for the idea of dumping Konerko just so we can sign some guy who'll pitch 60 innnings for us. $$$$ is also a big reason why the Red Sox won the World Series. The White Sox can't afford to sign Perez, and a bullpen guy. What did the 2000 Sox bullpen look like? The White Sox can't afford a starter for five per, and a reliever for two-three per tops but can afford adding the highest paid pitcher in baseball. Sure the Red Sox had money, but what they did was use it wisely, something the White Sox will not be doing if they go into the 05 season with Randy Johnson making a fourth of the payroll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxAce Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 Sure the Red Sox had money, but what they did was use it wisely Please. I bet you money that if the White Sox had a 200+ million dollar payroll, we would probably have 3 world series banners hangin up at the Cell right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redandwhite Posted November 9, 2004 Author Share Posted November 9, 2004 Please. I bet you money that if the White Sox had a 200+ million dollar payroll, we would probably have 3 world series banners hangin up at the Cell right now. If the Red Sox had anywhere close to 200 million dollars, I am sure they would to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHarris1 Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 Any idiot could build a World Series contender with the Bo Sox payroll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redandwhite Posted November 9, 2004 Author Share Posted November 9, 2004 Any idiot could build a World Series contender with the Bo Sox payroll. Oh please. Haha. No one asked for the peanut gallery to chime in. The jealousy is pathetic. The fans who actually know a thing or two about the game should be embarrassed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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