Rumors thread

[DBAHO]

Except AZ doesn't have a lot of good prospects in the minors for Pitt.

Pittsburgh would most likely get Navarro and another prospect or 2 from the Yankees, and possibly 1 from Arizona, or a 4th team would possibly have to get involved. The Pirates would love Navarro though, I think Santiago is their catcher now, he's in the final year of a 2 year deal I believe that he originally signed with the Royals.

[southsideirish71]

Millwood has an NL Era of close to 5. How do you think that will translate to the AL. He is going to get killed then he will get injured. Its a moterate pickup and wastes 7 mill for them.

[JUGGERNAUT]

First a moment of silence for Reggie White ....

 

 

 

 

Take a look at the FOXsports photos for Barry. They are all taken from different angles but no where does Barry resemble McGuire, Sosa, Canseco, or Giambi. Unless you have raw numbers of his ht, mass, waste size, chest size, etc. you're just making biased opinionated & unsubstantiated remarks based on photos taken from different angles that were probably touched up for publishing.

 

 

 

If you haven't heard yet, Odalis Perez is lobbying to join Pedro as a Met. That leaves Vasquez as our last real alternative to upgrading the staff.

[babybearhater]

This is not good news for the Sox. I think Millwood (provided health) is goign to have a nice bounceback.

Lets save this quote and see if what you think has any validity....4.75 in the national league =5.75 in the american league. Even Clemens, who is arguably the best of all time had 4.60, 3.70, 3.51, 4.35, 3.91 in the five previous years before he went to the national league. Then he had 2.98 this last year. Thats a 1 point differentiation in ERA, and he is the best around. Im not saying that its a law, but its very probable that his ERA will jump more than a point or two, and then be no better than Jason Grilli

[YASNY]

Millwood is generally a better pitcher than what he showed last year at Philly. He'll be a nice pick up for the Tribe, but not $7million worth.

[witesoxfan]

If you haven't heard yet, Odalis Perez is lobbying to join Pedro as a Met.  That leaves Vasquez as our last real alternative to upgrading the staff.

Why do you think El Duque was brought in here?

[beck72]

From the NY Daily News:

 

"The Yankees and Diamondbacks renewed negotiations last night on a deal that would put Randy Johnson in pinstripes.

Sources said Diamondbacks executive Jeffrey Moorad contacted Yankees president Randy Levine to restart the talks that had been aborted last week when the Dodgers pulled out of a potential three-team trade.

 

It is believed the talks are back to a 1-on-1 between the Yankees and Arizona.

 

The deal is expected to be a Johnson-for-Javier Vazquez exchange, with the Yankees adding prospects believed to be pitchers Brad Halsey and Melky Cabrera, in addition to cash."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If a deal like this comes down, no way do the Sox deal for Vazquez w/ the dbacks. They'll want to trade Vazquez for a kings ransom just so they won't look stupid getting little for RJ. The dbacks would ask for far too much in return for Vazquez. Plus they'd likely pocket the cash from the yanks, w/o paying any of Vaz's salary.

[southsider2k5]

The other think you can't seem to fathom is that Barry's HR totals took a big rise

when SFG got the new park.  If you haven't bothered to look it up take a look

at his HR's per stadium.  Over 1/2 his HR's come from SBC Park.  The Park is tailor made for Barry Bonds to hit HRs.  Put another way, if Barry wasn't a member of the SFG he would never have hit over 50HR.

 

That's why Aaron's & Babe's HR totals will probably overshadow Barry's. 

Those two players didn't play in a home that seemed to be diesigned specifically to their strengths.  Barry does.

Ummm you might want to do a little research on the Babe there buddy... Ever hear of the House that Ruth built? It wasn't because he doned a construction cap and went to work. That field was taylor made for his power strengths.

[ChWRoCk2]

From the NY Daily News:

 

"The Yankees and Diamondbacks renewed negotiations last night on a deal that would put Randy Johnson in pinstripes.

Sources said Diamondbacks executive Jeffrey Moorad contacted Yankees president Randy Levine to restart the talks that had been aborted last week when the Dodgers pulled out of a potential three-team trade.

 

It is believed the talks are back to a 1-on-1 between the Yankees and Arizona.

 

The deal is expected to be a Johnson-for-Javier Vazquez exchange, with the Yankees adding prospects believed to be pitchers Brad Halsey and Melky Cabrera, in addition to cash."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If a deal like this comes down, no way do the Sox deal for Vazquez w/ the dbacks. They'll want to trade Vazquez for a kings ransom just so they won't look stupid getting little for RJ. The dbacks would ask for far too much in return for Vazquez. Plus they'd likely pocket the cash from the yanks, w/o paying any of Vaz's salary.

randy johnson should just retire already to shut the yankees up

[Punch and Judy Garland]

Lets save this quote and see if what you think has any validity....4.75 in the national league =5.75 in the american league.  Even Clemens, who is arguably the best of all time had 4.60, 3.70, 3.51, 4.35, 3.91 in the five previous years before he went to the national league.  Then he had 2.98 this last year.  Thats a 1 point differentiation in ERA, and he is the best around.  Im not saying that its a law, but its very probable that his ERA will jump more than a point or two, and then be no better than Jason Grilli

You cna save itif you want. BTW, I am in no way suggesting that the Sox should have targeted Millwood. Even if you think he'll be a 5.00 pitcher, that might be all that team needed to pass us. Their rotation and suspect bullpen were all that held them back last season and they may have done enough to correct that this offseason. I'm not sure if Millwood is actually healthy but if he is, suddenly Sabathia-Lee-Millwood-Westbrook is very formidable in a an AL Central that is fairly weak. Also, please don't compare Jason Grilli to a guy with a no-hitter who won 18 games twice. I'm not even comfortable comparing Grili with Carlos Silva

[AnthraxFan93]

Why do you think El Duque was brought in here?

TO give the fan in the LF and RF allot of game balls?

[JUGGERNAUT]

I always thought it was called the House that Ruth built because his signing by the Yankees re-juvenated the fan base & gave the NYY owners the $ to afford the stadium? But I could be wrong. I would have to check his stats. If I remember correctly it's easier to hit HR's in RF in Yankee stadium as well.

 

As for the trade scenario it's funny. Odalis Perez might have just hung himself out to dry. After boasting he deserves a Clement like contract from the Mets, the GM of the Mets said Perez was the backup plan if they couldn't get Pedro but have since moved on. If they meet it would be past the Jan 8th deadline for Beltran's expected signing. That can't help Perez' cause any.

 

As for RJ it looks like AZ is going to get what it wants all along. Vazquez + prospects + 20 MIL for RJ. More than one NY paper has reported that the Boss is now prepared to spend 60M for RJ. Do the math: contract wise RJ will cost the NYY's 48M/3, save the NYY's 35M/3, & cost them 20M to complete the trade. The first year RJ will cost them about 24M more than Vazquez, but the last 2 yrs will only cost about 5M more than Vazquez. Money is never a problem for them.

 

Then the question remains will AZ keep Vasquez at cost of 5M/yr or trade him? I think that depends mostly on Vas. He's not a fan of the west so I don't think he wants to be playing in that division. If AZ includes some of the 20M in a trade, there will be many suitors for Vas. They should get a good price but Vas' own mouth could drop that value down some.

 

Make no mistake about this. If Garland gets traded to the NL & pitches a full season he will finish in the top 20. The NL is tailor made for pitchers to get out of jams. There is a wealth of statistics to prove this. The easiest being 7-9 spots in the batting order. The AL averages 200 OPS better in those 3 spots than the NL. But it doesn't stop there. When I recently did a few comparisons I even found the #6 spot to be weaker in the NL than the AL. If Vas should pitch a full season he'll definitely finish in the top 10

 

If you look at recent World Series champions, there's a pattern:

the NL has only won a WS when it has dominant starters. Guys that either pitch

shutouts or dominate the game like RJ & Schilling did. When the NL doesn't feature that the AL wins.

 

That's why when comparing arms from the two leagues the most important stat is probably losses. Take a look at Jon's numbers:

2000 CWS 13GS, 69.2IP, 4W, 8L

2001 CWS 16GS, 117.0IP, 6W, 7L

2002 CWS 33GS, 192.2IP, 12W, 12L

2003 CWS 32GS, 191.2IP, 12W, 13L

2004 CWS 34GS, 217.0IP, 12W, 11L

 

You can look up his game logs & calc his quality starts but it comes down to this:

Jon avg'd about 1 loss every 3 starts in 2004. His best average to date. If he could manage just a few more quality starts to push that avg to say 1 loss ev 3.5 starts in 2005 he'll be a top 20 pitcher.

[Cerbaho-WG]

I always thought it was called the House that Ruth built because his signing by the Yankees re-juvenated the fan base & gave the NYY owners the $ to afford the stadium?  But I could be wrong.  I would have to check his stats.  If I remember correctly it's easier to hit HR's in RF in Yankee stadium as well. 

 

As for the trade scenario it's funny.  Odalis Perez might have just hung himself out to dry.  After boasting he deserves a Clement like contract from the Mets, the GM of the Mets said Perez was the backup plan if they couldn't get Pedro but have since moved on. If they meet it would be past the Jan 8th deadline for Beltran's expected signing.  That can't help Perez' cause any. 

 

As for RJ it looks like AZ is going to get what it wants all along.  Vazquez + prospects + 20 MIL for RJ.  More than one NY paper has reported that the Boss is now prepared to spend 60M for RJ. Do the math:  contract wise RJ will cost the NYY's 48M/3, save the NYY's 35M/3, & cost them 20M to complete the trade. The first year RJ will cost them about 24M more than Vazquez, but the last 2 yrs will only cost about 5M more than Vazquez. Money is never a problem for them.

 

Then the question remains will AZ keep Vasquez at  cost of 5M/yr or trade him?  I think that depends mostly on Vas. He's not a fan of the west so I don't think he wants to be playing in that division.  If AZ includes some of the 20M in a trade, there will be many suitors for Vas. They should get a good price but Vas' own mouth could drop that value down some.

 

Make no mistake about this.  If Garland gets traded to the NL & pitches a full season he will finish in the top 20. The NL is tailor made for pitchers to get out of jams.  There is a wealth of statistics to prove this.  The easiest being 7-9 spots in the batting order.  The AL averages 200 OPS better in those 3 spots than the NL.  But it doesn't stop there.  When I recently did a few comparisons I even found the #6 spot to be weaker in the NL than the AL. If Vas should pitch a full season he'll definitely finish in the top 10

 

If you look at recent World Series champions, there's a pattern:

the NL has only won a WS when it has dominant starters.  Guys that either pitch

shutouts or dominate the game like RJ & Schilling did. When the NL doesn't feature that the AL wins. 

 

That's why when comparing arms from the two leagues the most important stat is probably losses. Take a look at Jon's numbers:

2000 CWS 13GS, 69.2IP, 4W, 8L

2001 CWS 16GS, 117.0IP, 6W, 7L

2002 CWS 33GS, 192.2IP, 12W, 12L

2003 CWS 32GS, 191.2IP, 12W, 13L

2004 CWS 34GS, 217.0IP, 12W, 11L

 

You can look up his game logs & calc his quality starts but it comes down to this:

Jon avg'd about 1 loss every 3 starts in 2004.  His best average to date.  If he could manage just a few more quality starts to push that avg to say 1 loss ev 3.5 starts in 2005 he'll be a top 20 pitcher.

I disagree wholeheartedly. If you study Garland's strikeout rates, walk rates, H/IP, H/( and WHIP, one can see that he is regressing very slowly into mediocrity. Would a move to the NL help him? Of course, but not in such a manner that he would become a Top 20 pitcher.

[southsider2k5]

I always thought it was called the House that Ruth built because his signing by the Yankees re-juvenated the fan base & gave the NYY owners the $ to afford the stadium?  But I could be wrong.  I would have to check his stats.  If I remember correctly it's easier to hit HR's in RF in Yankee stadium as well. 

The RF line at Yankee Stadium is like 310-315. It was made to help out the lefty power of the Babe.

[JUGGERNAUT]

I disagree wholeheartedly. If you study Garland's strikeout rates, walk rates, H/IP, H/( and WHIP, one can see that he is regressing very slowly into mediocrity. Would a move to the NL help him? Of course, but not in such a manner that he would become a Top 20 pitcher.

I disagree with using statistical avg's to measure Garland because he's such an on-or-off pitcher. There is little in between. His starts usually resemble extremes.

Either quality or poor. But last year he had more winnable starts than any prior year.

 

It would be better to look at Garland's MOB avg for his quality starts vs his poor starts.

I think MOB is a better indicator than WHIP or K/IP for a starter.

 

In the Sag's Garland ranked 29th w a 4.10 NPERA. But in MOB he ranked 19th.

Only 18 starting pitchers avg's less men on base per start than Garland. That's definitely improvement & that's a better indication of how good his quality starts were.

[JUGGERNAUT]

Garland:

Apr. 9 @NYY 8.0ip, 1.13 era - great

Apr. 14 KC 6.2ip, 3.68 era - poor

Apr. 21 NYY 7.0ip, 3.74 era - good

Apr. 27 CLE 6.0ip, 4.55 era - poor

May. 2 TOR 7.0ip, 4.15 era - great

May. 7 @TOR 6.0ip, 4.43 era - poor

May. 13 BAL 7.0ip, 3.97 era - great

May. 18@CLE 7.0ip, 3.62 era - great

May. 23@MIN 7.0ip, 4.09 era - poor

May. 28 ANA 7.0ip, 3.93 era - good

Jun. 4 @SEA 7.1ip, 3.79 era - good

Jun. 9 PHI 4.0ip, 4.73 era - poor

Jun. 15@FLA 6.2ip, 4.67 era - good

Jun. 20@WAS 8.1ip, 4.64 era - good

Jun. 25 CHC 5.1ip, 4.84 era - poor

Jul. 1@MIN 7.0ip, 4.61 era - good

Jul. 9 SEA 7.0ip, 4.41 era - good

Jul. 15@OAK 7.0ip, 4.38 era - good

Jul. 20@TEX 6.0ip, 4.45 era - poor

Jul. 25 DET 6.0ip, 4.52 era - poor

Jul. 30@DET 6.0ip, 4.59 era - poor

Aug. 5 @KC 7.0ip, 4.74 era - poor

Aug. 10 KC 7.0ip, 4.70 era - good

Aug. 14@BOS 6.0ip, 4.69 era - good

Aug. 19 DET 2.2ip, 4.78 era - poor

Aug. 24@DET 7.0ip, 4.79 era - poor

Aug. 29@CLE 7.0ip, 4.91 era - poor

Sep. 3 SEA 7.0ip, 4.92 era - poor

Sep. 7@TEX 0.1ip, 5.01 era - poor

Sep. 10@ANA 6.1ip, 4.94 era - good

Sep. 16@MIN 7.0ip, 4.99 era - poor

Sep. 21 MIN 6.0ip, 5.11 era - poor

Sep. 26 KC 8.1ip, 4.95 era - good

Oct. 1 @KC 6.0ip, 4.89 era - good

 

4 great starts, 13 good starts, 17 poor starts

 

Vasquez:

Oct. 9 @MIN 5.0, 9.00 - poor

Oct. 16 @BOS 4.1, 8.68 - poor

Oct. 20 BOS 2.0, 9.53 - poor

 

Apr. 8 CWS 8.0, 1.13 - great

Apr. 16@BOS 5.1, 3.38 - poor

Apr. 21@CWS 8.0, 2.53 - great

Apr. 25BOS 6.0, 2.63 - good

Apr. 30 KC 8.0, 2.55 - great

May. 6@OAK 5.2, 3.73 - poor

May. 12ANA 7.1, 4.10 - poor

May. 18@ANA 7.0, 3.58 - great

May. 23@TEX 6.0, 3.67 - good

May. 28 @TB 6.0, 3.88 - good

Jun. 3 BAL 7.0, 3.75 - good

Jun. 8 COL 7.0, 3.54 - great

Jun. 13 SD 8.0, 3.43 - great

Jun. 18 @LA 5.0, 3.44 - good

Jun. 24 @BAL 7.0, 3.38 - good

Jun. 29 BOS 6.2, 3.42 - good

Jul. 4 @NYM 5.0, 3.50 - good

Jul. 9 TB 5.2, 3.57 - good

Jul. 16 @DET 4.1, 4.02 - poor

Jul. 21 TOR 6.0, 4.05 - poor

Jul. 26 @TOR 6.1, 4.06 - poor

Jul. 31 BAL 5.1, 4.16 - poor

Aug. 6 TOR 8.0, 4.12 - good

Aug. 17 @MIN 6.2, 4.29 - poor

Aug. 24 @CLE 7.0, 4.32 - poor

Aug. 31 CLE 1.1, 4.62 - poor

Sep. 5 BAL 7.0, 4.59 - good

Sep. 10 @BAL 2.1, 4.94 - poor

Sep. 15 @KC 7.0, 4.75 - good

Sep. 20 TOR 6.2, 4.77 - poor

Sep. 25 @BOS 4.2, 4.89 - poor

Sep. 30 MIN 6.2, 4.91 - poor

 

6 great starts, 12 good starts, 14 poor starts

 

Jon beats Vasquez easily with price v performance.

[upnorthsox]

Dustan Mohr - OF - Giants   

 

 

Dustan Mohr and the Rockies have reportedly agreed to terms one a one-year, $950,000 contract with a mutual option for 2006.

The deal could be finalized today. Mohr will compete with Brad Hawpe for playing time in right field and act as a backup in left and center. Dec. 28 - 4:17 am et

 

I'd have much much prefered him over Timo and for less money no less.

[upnorthsox]

Chris Woodward - SS - Mets   

 

 

Mets signed infielder Chris Woodward to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.

Woodward becomes the favorite to back up Jose Reyes at shortstop. He'll also likely get some time at second and third in spring training. Dec. 28 - 3:38 pm

[Gene Honda Civic]

I'd have much much prefered him over Timo and for less money no less.

Dustin Mohr, 28 year old righty OF with a career OPS+ of 97 gets $950K guaranteed

Todd Holladsworth, 31 year old lefty OF with a career OPS+ of 103 gets $900K guaranteed, incentives could double the contract value.

Timo Perez, 29 year old lefty OF with a career OPS+ of 81 gets $1M guarenteed.

 

 

:headshake

[upnorthsox]

Dustin Mohr, 28 year old righty OF with a career OPS+ of 97 gets $950K guaranteed

Todd Holladsworth, 31 year old lefty OF with a career OPS+ of 103 gets $900K guaranteed,  incentives could double the contract value.

Timo Perez, 29 year old lefty OF with a career OPS+ of 81 gets $1M guarenteed.

 

 

:headshake

Exactly Gene. :headshake

[Cerbaho-WG]

I disagree with using statistical avg's to measure Garland because he's such an on-or-off pitcher.  There is little in between.  His starts usually resemble extremes.

Either quality or poor. But last year he had more winnable starts than any prior year.

 

It would be better to look at Garland's MOB avg for his quality starts vs his poor starts.

I think MOB is a better indicator than WHIP or K/IP for a starter. 

 

In the Sag's Garland ranked 29th w a 4.10 NPERA.  But in MOB he ranked 19th.

Only 18 starting pitchers avg's less men on base per start than Garland.  That's definitely improvement & that's a better indication of how good his quality starts were.

I'm not arguing that Garland is a better pitcher than Vazquez, I'm arguing that Garland is a subpar pitcher who is getting worse statistically year after year. And to comat this, you throw out statistics that disfavor your point and instead use others. You begin by denoucning statistical averages and then begin to use them to solidify your viewpoint. Just a bit hypocritical.

 

We're talking about a guy here who gives up an OOPS of .783 which is subpar. As stated earlier, his SOs are declining, hits/9 are going up, but at least his walks have clamed down a bit, but 3.15 BB/9 isn't exactly something to hang your hat on. Unless his statistical trends start reversing themselves, he has to be considered a subpar pitcher for who he was hyped to be.

[DBAHO]

Dustin Mohr, 28 year old righty OF with a career OPS+ of 97 gets $950K guaranteed

Todd Holladsworth, 31 year old lefty OF with a career OPS+ of 103 gets $900K guaranteed,  incentives could double the contract value.

Timo Perez, 29 year old lefty OF with a career OPS+ of 81 gets $1M guarenteed.

 

 

:headshake

Say if we didn't sign Timo though Gene, do you think if we pursued Mohr he would have signed for us instead of the Rockies? Even though the parks are both similar, and Mohr wanted to increase his value for next season's FA, at least the Rockies could offer him consistent playing time, as he'll most likely be one of their 3 outfielders.

 

And I'm not saying I like the Timo deal either.

[DBAHO]

Arizona and New York close to hammering out a deal;

 

Both possibilities involved the Yankees sending Javier Vazquez, prospects and cash to Arizona in exchange for Johnson, but the amount of money the Bombers would ship was contingent on the caliber of the minor leaguers.

 

In one proposal, the Yanks were to trade Vazquez, Brad Halsey, Abel Gomez and Melky Cabrera (lower-level prospects) for Johnson and include about $12 million to make up some of the difference in money owed to the 41-year-old ace ($16 million this season) and Vazquez ($35.5 million over the next three years).

 

The other proposal involved the Yankees moving Vazquez and higher-rated prospects Dioner Navarro and Eric Duncan for Johnson, while throwing in significantly less money - around $5 million - to complete the transaction. Once the deal is agreed upon, the Yankees then have to work out a contract extension for Johnson; according to sources, they were talking about adding two years to Johnson's pact at $16 million per.

[EvilJester99]

I wonder if the Sox will get into this again for Vazquez? As long as Arizona isn't still smoking that crack pipe. Which is better?

 

Buehrle

Garcia

Hernandez

Contreras

Garland

 

or

 

Buehrle

Garcia

Vazquez

Hernandez

Contreras

[beck72]

I wonder if the Sox will get into this again for Vazquez? As long as Arizona isn't still smoking that crack pipe. Which is better?

If the sox could deal just w/ NY a deal could get worked out. But AZ likes the rock too much [What else can explain the fascination in getting Shawn Green and his $16 mill a yr contract?]. There likely won't be a deal for Vazquez [unless its at the trade deadline and AZ is 20 games back]