whitesox91403 Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 If this is true, Jaret Wright as a #3 or #4 is a good pick-up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwerty Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 That's some top-notch work BB. Good show. He really needs to post more often. BB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rowand44 Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 He really needs to post more often. BB. I agree, great research as always. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3E8 Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 Have you looked at his stats.. 1 decent year doesn't give you a 5-6 mil contract. Sorry You're right. In Carl Pavano's case, it gives you a 8-9 million dollar contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rowand44 Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 You're right. In Carl Pavano's case, it gives you a 8-9 million dollar contract. Don't you dare talk bad about Pavano. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackBetsy Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 He really needs to post more often. BB. He really needs more time to post...still at work at 10 p.m. Eastern....but things could better soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punch and Judy Garland Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 I'm sorry as I'm not a stat guy so I don't believe GAB is a pitchers park. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerbaho-WG Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 It's the best rotation in the division by 3 or 4 lengths, even if the Twinkies re-sign Radke. If the Twinkies lose Radke (and his 60 VORP from last year), that rotation is the best by 10 or 15 lengths...If Radke signs elsewhere and the Sox sign Wright, all other things equal, the Sox win the division by 5-7 games. Here are a couple of things. Johan Santana was great last year. But he also had his share of luck, too. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was .250, as opposed to the league average of .296. That means fewer balls dropped in on him than other pitchers. (Don't say the Twinkies' defense was good, either - the overall BABIP for Twins pitchers was .303 - behind the league average). It's been proven that BABIPs like that don't stay the same from year to year - the pitcher has essentially no control once the ball is in play. Look for Santana to regress to the mean next year. He'll still be very, very good, but his ERA will be more like 3.30 rather than 2.90 - probably causing him to lose 2-3 more games. (Carlos Silva was marginally, lucky, too - his BABIP was .277.) Wright actually had a league-average BABIP of .291 against him. He wasn't particularly lucky and he had a 3.28 ERA. That's pretty solid. His low homer total (11) was amazing given that Turner Field gives up 13% more homers than average. I think Wright would be an excellent signing. Perez, on the other hand, has had 2 sub-4 ERA's in the past three years in Dodger Stadium, which is perhaps THE pitcher's park of this ERA (with apologizes to Petco and Comerica before they brought in the fences). But he needed absurdly low BABIPs to do it - a microscopic .247 in 2002 and .262 in 2004. When he's been good, he's gotten lucky. His home run rate would be poor in US Cellular (he gave up 26 last year playing half his games in Dodger Stadium), and I'd expect an ERA in the mid-to-high 4's with the White Sox. Not worth the $6 million or so the Sox would spend on him - he'd be another Jon Garland, essentially. Good to see someone else harping VORP here. Assuming that Santana's BABIP does indeed rise , let's say for numbers sake .280, his VORP would still be one around 75, maybe even higher. What you didn't account for is that while Santana did have an outstanding year, he was leaps and bounds better than any pitcher in all of baseball. If you look at Santana's SNVA, and even better his SNLVA, Santana was worth a good 2 won games compared to any other pitcher in the bigs. Even with a BABIP of .280, he'd still lead that category by a comfortable amount. While I do expect Santana to regress, I see only a slight regression occuring, not a full blown disaster. Also of note is that I expect either Mark Buehrle or Freddy Garcia to experience an injury during the 2005 campaign that could sideline them for extended periods of time, or at least affect them negatively. Buehrle and Garcia both rank within the top 20 of PAP (Pitcher Absue Points) and Buehrle had the second most pitches of anyone in all of baseball next to Livan Hernandez, whose shoulder should be lynching itself any day now. While I do believe that some in the Twins front staff will regress (Carlos Silva heavily, I'm expecting him to implode) I do not think that the Twins will have that bad have a pitching staff in comparison to ours, assuming that Brad Radke resigns. If Radke ditches, then the White Sox have the clear advantage here, but I think you're being too optimistic with the White Sox pitchers all pitching above average and all Twins pitchers falling off a bit. I'm basically reserving judgement until I see some PECOTA rankings and Jaret Wright at a White Sox press conference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerbaho-WG Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 Also, BB, when subtracting off runs from team totals, which is a very broad and unscientific method, use RP instead of VORP. RP is weight adjusted against the entire league and stands for "Runs Prevented" in comparison to "Value Over Replacement Player". Just makes a tad more sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackBetsy Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 Also, BB, when subtracting off runs from team totals, which is a very broad and unscientific method, use RP instead of VORP. RP is weight adjusted against the entire league and stands for "Runs Prevented" in comparison to "Value Over Replacement Player". Just makes a tad more sense. Yup, using VORP is a sloppy shorthand method. But RP and VORP are measured so that you can compare pitchers vs. hitters relatively well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWSGuy406 Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 Good to see someone else harping VORP here. Assuming that Santana's BABIP does indeed rise , let's say for numbers sake .280, his VORP would still be one around 75, maybe even higher. What you didn't account for is that while Santana did have an outstanding year, he was leaps and bounds better than any pitcher in all of baseball. If you look at Santana's SNVA, and even better his SNLVA, Santana was worth a good 2 won games compared to any other pitcher in the bigs. Even with a BABIP of .280, he'd still lead that category by a comfortable amount. While I do expect Santana to regress, I see only a slight regression occuring, not a full blown disaster. Cerb, without getting too much into it, what is SNLVA and SNVA? I got lost right around there, and I like reading posts that use some of these more uncommon stats... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerbaho-WG Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary....php?context=17 Hope that clears it up for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshPR Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 Wow Stats these days.. Sorry not sound very optimistic, BUt damn, Jaret Wright is the Best we could do? I know I know someone is gonna throw some stats at me but I thik are goal sould be set higher. Now If Kenny is going to get Pavano Too..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 Wow Stats these days.. Sorry not sound very optimistic, BUt damn, Jaret Wright is the Best we could do? I know I know someone is gonna throw some stats at me but I thik are goal sould be set higher. Now If Kenny is going to get Pavano Too..... hey Jose, Have you hear /read anything down there RE: Manos and the BoSox... I heard a rumor that it was pretty much a done deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthraxFan93 Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 You're right. In Carl Pavano's case, it gives you a 8-9 million dollar contract. I was not sold on him either.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greasywheels121 Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 hey Jose, Have you hear /read anything down there RE: Manos and the BoSox... I heard a rumor that it was pretty much a done deal. My friend sent me a spanish newspaper link regarding that. It said the rumor is that they're REALLY close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 My friend sent me a spanish newspaper link regarding that. It said the rumor is that they're REALLY close. yeah, I got the same thing... I was gonna send it to redandwhite Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshPR Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 hey Jose, Have you hear /read anything down there RE: Manos and the BoSox... I heard a rumor that it was pretty much a done deal. Jose??? Me??? LOL! No haven't Nothing has been said in the paper. But when i did read that article Jose seemed Pretty Sure Boston was going to sign him if they didn't resign Cabrera Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshPR Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 My friend sent me a spanish newspaper link regarding that. It said the rumor is that they're REALLY close. Post me the Link? To see if it's one of our papers. Haven't checked today's tho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 Jose??? Me??? LOL! No haven't Nothing has been said in the paper. But when i did read that article Jose seemed Pretty Sure Boston was going to sign him if they didn't resign Cabrera ha I didn't even notice I did that... I was thinking valentin when I was typing josh, it just came out jose... Only one letter off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greasywheels121 Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 Post me the Link? To see if it's one of our papers. Haven't checked today's tho I'll see if I can get a hold of the link sometime, but looking through my internet history...I just remembered it had to be while I was home for Thanksgiving last week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshPR Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 I'll see if I can get a hold of the link sometime, but looking through my internet history...I just remembered it had to be while I was home for Thanksgiving last week. Ok. Our on line papers are www.vocero.com www.endi.com www.primerahora.com And another page dedicated to Puerto Rico baseball and the winter league www.ebaseballpr.com Did it look like any of those? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwerty Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 Ben maller had the link of where they got it but that was several days ago now and it is not in their archive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greasywheels121 Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 I'm pretty sure it was the endi.com site. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshPR Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 I'm pretty sure it was the endi.com site. Ok Let me see if the archive's site of that Paper is back up. I stole my college's username and password Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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