BlackBetsy Posted December 11, 2004 Share Posted December 11, 2004 Sorry - somebody had a thread on this before, I couldn't find it and now I want to raise the point again. I don't think you could overuse him - you'd want to get him only 25 starts for the year and maybe 150-160 innings, but I think he'd do a great job as a 5th starter. He's still only 34, and look at this line for the last two years: 2004 4.03 ERA, 120 2/3 IP, 12 HR, 31 BB 102 K 2003 2.37 ERA, 95 IP, 5 HR (!), 23 BB, 82 K Combined: 215 IP, 17 HR, 54 BB, 184 K I'm going to lay it on the line. Putting aside Roger Clemens - who says he's retired - I think that Wilson Alvarez is the THIRD best starting pitcher on the market after Pedro Martinez and Jaret Wright (who is now off the market). His 4.03 ERA this year was somewhat inflated for reasons I can't understand (bad timing on his homers and walks, I guess). If he can be had for $3 million a year or less, he would be PERFECT for the White Sox. You can use him as an irregular starter to give him rest (as well as the other 4 in the rotation) and he should stay fresh. With two years of relative success behind him, I think he'd be able to do pretty well; strikeout pitchers like Alvarez age better than other pitchers. I'd see if he would take a 2-year, $5 million deal, and would be willing to go up to 2 years, $6 million. To free up salary room, I would jettison Timo Perez (save 700k) for a waiver wire 4th outfielder and I'd trade Carl Everett and $2 million to whoever would give me a prospect for him (save $2 million). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi8is Posted December 11, 2004 Share Posted December 11, 2004 if its the last resort... sure, better then grilli... much better.. but still, i want more Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greasywheels121 Posted December 11, 2004 Share Posted December 11, 2004 I actually like the idea. He's had some solid numbers in LA. I can't believe he's only 34. I guess he was really young when he was in Chicago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedoctor Posted December 11, 2004 Share Posted December 11, 2004 i'll agree that he's better than grilli. i don't know that i'd go as far as to say he's the third best starting pitcher on the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwerty Posted December 11, 2004 Share Posted December 11, 2004 i'll agree that he's better than grilli. i don't know that i'd go as far as to say he's the third best starting pitcher on the market. For the money he is gonna get he is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted December 11, 2004 Share Posted December 11, 2004 I think that the Sox should focus on getting one of the two lefties from LA, Perez(and removing Timo because having 2 Perez's is just too confusing) and Alvarez. If KW could convice JR to open up the pocketbook just a little more the White Sox would be such better shape. Alvarez would look great on the southside once again. Wow, I didn't even read your post Betsy, until just now, but I already wrote about getting rid of Timo, and was about to say something about getting rid of Jurassic in some sort of salary dump for a prospect. (even though I think we will need Jurassic this season and I foresee him having a good year.) SP is just a much bigger need, and a much better way to spend money this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3E8 Posted December 11, 2004 Share Posted December 11, 2004 I think that the Sox should focus on getting one of the two lefties from LA, Perez(and removing Timo because having 2 Perez's is just too confusing) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackBetsy Posted December 11, 2004 Author Share Posted December 11, 2004 Well, here's how I figure he's the third best starter on the market.... You have to judge him based on his defense-independent performance (i.e., K's, BB's, HR's) - everything else is (predominantly) up to the defense. Basically, the formula I have for judging a pitcher's worth is (.294 * K - .327 BB - 1.393 HR) / IP * 9. This is a kind of pitcher runs-saved-per 9 innings metric. I explain it here (third or fourth posting down - see OneStat, Take Two) in the Washington Nationals blog I write with two buddies. For Alvarez, I get a value of 0.24 runs saved per 9 innings, meaning that his pitcher-controlled performances actually save his team .24 runs off of what would happen if he didn't walk anyone, didn't strikeout anyone, and didn't allow any homers. In other words, he's .24 runs better than just letting the defense field the ball in play. (My research shows that most pitcher, because they give up too many home runs, make their teams worse off than if they had just kept the ball in the park and not walked or struck out anyone). The only pitchers better in 2004 that are free agents are Pedro - 0.44 runs saved per 9 IP, and Jaret Wright - .41 runs saved per 9 IP. Alvarez is third ahead of Glendon Rusch (low HR rate is key) and Carl Pavano (again, low HR rate). Believe it or not, Clement and Benson are just about equal. Benson had a way low HR rate last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chisox2334 Posted December 11, 2004 Share Posted December 11, 2004 Kenny will get the job done:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tjones Posted December 11, 2004 Share Posted December 11, 2004 hopefully Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3E8 Posted December 11, 2004 Share Posted December 11, 2004 His NL 5.19 ERA away from Dodger Stadium warrants caution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackBetsy Posted December 11, 2004 Author Share Posted December 11, 2004 His NL 5.19 ERA away from Dodger Stadium warrants caution. No question. And his 4.95 ERA as a starter causes me worries, too. But as a spot/5th starter, I think he would perform well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
santo=dorf Posted December 11, 2004 Share Posted December 11, 2004 His NL 5.19 ERA away from Dodger Stadium warrants caution. I wonder if Wilson would like to come back to play with and under some of his former teammates. Guillen, Raines, Cora, and Thomas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi8is Posted December 11, 2004 Share Posted December 11, 2004 this seems like it just might be under KW's plan E or F aproach with grilli being plan G Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted December 11, 2004 Share Posted December 11, 2004 Alvarez certainly warrants consideration. However the main factor going against us signing him is that he's primarily an NL pitcher who'd like to stay in the NL to help his numbers. He's also very injury prone, but he can also pitch in the bullpen as well. A wait and see I guess, but I think LA will be keen to retain him if they can't trade for Hudson, and are most likely going to lose Perez. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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