Stats help re: pods

[Palehosefan]

Geoff hit .264, and Counsell .241, Lyle hit .301 with 16 homers and 87 rbi's. Thats not a whole lot of run producers. Heck only 3 guys on the entire team scored over 60 runs, thats just sad.

[Gene Honda Civic]

Unless there is another big bat added, I will guarantee that we score fewer runs than last season. That means the pitching staff has to be much improved. Currently it's not. Plus remember that we play in what is the best hitters park n baseball outside of Coors. It just doesn't really make sense to build your offense around "smallball" and stolen bases in that type of atmosphere.

 

last years lead off hitters went .279/.349/.415

podsednik was .244/.315/.364 That doesn't look like an upgrade to me.

[3E8]

Unfortunately we don't have the payroll to build around both offense and defense (pitching included). We will have to see how things go with the latter.

[jackie hayes]

Geoff hit .264, and Counsell .241, Lyle hit .301 with 16 homers and 87 rbi's. Thats not a whole lot of run producers. Heck only 3 guys on the entire team scored over 60 runs, thats just sad.

Jenkins and Counsell had .330 obp (roughly), so they were better at avoiding outs than Pods. Overbay had a .385 obp and .478 slg. It's not all ba. They didn't make outs and 2 out of the 3 hit the ball pretty hard.

 

It's just not a fair comparison to say the Brewers scored fewer runs overall, and not consider how many chances Pods had (pa) and who was responsible for knocking him in.

[Palehosefan]

We aren't playing "smallball" though, thats a misconception. Konerko, Crede, Uribe, Rowand, Dye, and Thomas all have 20+ HR power. Pod will add 10, and the catchers and 2B will add 10 HR's. To be conservative.

 

Pod, 10 HR

Uribe, 20 HR

Thomas, 30 HR

Konerko, 30 HR

Rowand, 22 HR

Dye, 22 HR

Crede 22 HR

Davis 6 HR

Harris? 1 HR

 

Thats 163 homers on a conservative side. Not to mention bench guys like Everett, Gload, and Perez will contribute a few. We aren't becoming the Expos or the Tigers by any stretch of the imagination. We still have power, and now we have added more speed.

[jackie hayes]

Anyone who tried to go all smallball today, to do away w/ all their power hitters and field slap hitters 1-9, would justifiably be put in an asylum. What the Sox did, though, is trade away an all-around hitter (good obp, low k, good power, not fast but not slow) for a guy who's only definite asset is speed. That's a smallballsy move.

[Palehosefan]

The Sox signed Dye to help fill the power left behind from Carlos. But Carlos' average season as a Sox was .287 average 27 homers and 94 rbi's, he's not exactly a superstar slugger. He hit the 100 rbi mark all of 1 time on one of the best offensive teams in baseball the past 5 years. Pod won't make up for CLee's numbers, but he will give others a chance to improve their numbers by knocking him in from 2B or a sac fly from 3B.

 

Did anyone think we would be a good offensive team even without Frank and Magglio? I didn't, but we still put up nearly 900 runs on the season with Magglio and Frank missing 198 games. You can put an average offensive team and score 800+ runs here, we aren't going to be hurting for runs, we just have to figure out how to stop to many, the money better help.

[jackie hayes]

The Sox signed Dye to help fill the power left behind from Carlos. But Carlos' average season as a Sox was .287 average 27 homers and 94 rbi's, he's not exactly a superstar slugger. He hit the 100 rbi mark all of 1 time on one of the best offensive teams in baseball the past 5 years. Pod won't make up for CLee's numbers, but he will give others a chance to improve their numbers by knocking him in from 2B or a sac fly from 3B. 

 

Did anyone think we would be a good offensive team even without Frank and Magglio? I didn't, but we still put up nearly 900 runs on the season with Magglio and Frank missing 198 games. You can put an average offensive team and score 800+ runs here, we aren't going to be hurting for runs, we just have to figure out how to stop to many, the money better help.

Congrats on 1,000 posts!

 

I only wish you could have been right for your 1,000th one...

 

Why do I keep hearing about power? Carlos had power, but I never thought of him as a "slugger". He's a very good hitter, about to enter what's for many players their best years. .350-.380 obp, .500-.530 slg, these are realistic numbers for him. He wasn't slow (unlike PK), and he's learned how to field. And we had him signed for 2 years at about $8 mil per, which is reasonable. His k and bb numbers were better than most Sox hitters' (except Frank, of course). Finally, we could have afforded to lose PK to free agency in the off-season. Now....

 

Pods won't be at 2b to get knocked in unless he gets on base first. If he doesn't get on base better than .340 (taking that from someone else, thought it was a good minimum for a leadoff hitter), this trade is a big failure despite the salary room.

[Palehosefan]

There is no reason to think Pod won't score as many or more than 85 runs this year, which was more than all but Rowand and Lee, neither led off for us. Still doesn't change the fact that Pod gave Brewers hitters more than 100 chances to knock him in from 2nd or 3rd base. Carlos was in his prime this year with a good scoring ballclub and still managed under 100 rbi's.

 

Anyways, we can argue about this all day with numbers back and forth. We will see if the trade ends up helping us.

 

Thanks for the congrats though

[TLAK]

Over and over, people have shown that's just not true.  I started a thread on this during the season, and one of the first entries in Jason's blog analyzed this.  The White Sox did not have more low-scoring games than other teams, period.  Just b/c KW says it's true doesn't make it true.

I couldn't find Jason's article so I'm going without it's benefit.

 

By my count, the White Sox scored 2 runs or less 45 times. They scored 9 or more runs 35 times.

 

Whether they are unusual v the rest of the league or not, they were a 1 and 44 in the low production games. Adding a run to these type of games, while subtracting 2 runs from the high scoring games, feels to me like it would result in more wins, even though the gross runs scored would decline.

[Chisoxfn]

I couldn't find Jason's article so I'm going without it's benefit.

 

By my count, the White Sox scored 2 runs or less 45 times.  They scored 9 or more runs 35 times.

 

Whether they are unusual v the rest of the league or not, they were a 1 and 44 in the low production games.  Adding a run to these type of games, while subtracting 2 runs from the high scoring games, feels to me like it would result in more wins, even though the gross runs scored would decline.

http://soxnet.blogspot.com/2004/10/fixing-...sox-part-1.html

[jackie hayes]

I couldn't find Jason's article so I'm going without it's benefit.

 

By my count, the White Sox scored 2 runs or less 45 times.  They scored 9 or more runs 35 times.

 

Whether they are unusual v the rest of the league or not, they were a 1 and 44 in the low production games.  Adding a run to these type of games, while subtracting 2 runs from the high scoring games, feels to me like it would result in more wins, even though the gross runs scored would decline.

That's just not good logic. You can't just subtract 2 runs from all the highest scoring games and add a run to each of these. Offenses don't work that way. Sometimes you erupt, and you can't save those runs for tomorrow. Sometimes you run into a buzzsaw like Santana or Schilling and you get shut out. Shutting down the variation doesn't happen. Obviously if we could redistribute our runs ex post we could probably go 155-7.

[Rowand44]

The current White Sox team is about 75 runs worse over the course of the season than last years team... Unless you can prove to me that the acquisition of Vizcaino and Hermanson are gonna put up ERA's of 0.00 to make up for those 75 runs than this team is in serious trouble.

This team will most likely score less runs then last year but has a chance to be more consistant. Who cares if the cell is a hitters park, you can still build your team around smallball. We've had these juggernaut offenses for the last couple of years and it has got us no where, screw that, I'm tired of living by the homer. It's time to run more and manufacture runs.

[TLAK]

http://soxnet.blogspot.com/2004/10/fixing-...sox-part-1.html

Thanks! A fine article as usual.

 

The only difference I have with it is I don't count 3 run games as offensive failures where you have little chance of winning. The Sox were 6-6 when they scored 3 runs -actually a better record than when they scored 4 (10-14). I know you're going to run into stud pitchers that nobody can hit that day, but I just want to get out of as many 2 or less's as possible.

 

Perhaps a speedier lineup can even beat a pitcher making his major league debut.

[Palehosefan]

Wanted to add, don't forget Scott's lifetime numbers.

 

.275 average, .343 OBP, 188 runs in 327 games.

 

Last year could have been a sophomore slump, we will have to see.

[jackie hayes]

Thanks! A fine article as usual.

 

The only difference I have with it is I don't count 3 run games as offensive failures where you have little chance of winning.  The Sox were 6-6 when they scored 3 runs -actually a better record than when they scored 4 (10-14).  I know you're going to run into stud pitchers that nobody can hit that day, but I just want to get out of as many 2 or less's as possible.

 

Perhaps a speedier lineup can even beat a pitcher making his major league debut.

Lol, that seems ingrained. I figure there's gotta be something in the CBA about the Sox and new pitchers.

[jackie hayes]

Wanted to add, don't forget Scott's lifetime numbers.

 

.275 average, .343 OBP, 188 runs in 327 games.

 

Last year could have been a sophomore slump, we will have to see.

Cheap... We all remember 2003, how can you forget that performance? But do you trust 1 ML campaign or 9 seasons in the minors more?

 

Eh, what's done is done, I'm still hoping he reproduces that season. Just don't have much confidence in that.

[qwerty]

But do you trust 1 ML campaign or 9 seasons in the minors more?

That was a career .265 hitter down there.

[Chisoxfn]

Thanks! A fine article as usual.

 

The only difference I have with it is I don't count 3 run games as offensive failures where you have little chance of winning.  The Sox were 6-6 when they scored 3 runs -actually a better record than when they scored 4 (10-14).  I know you're going to run into stud pitchers that nobody can hit that day, but I just want to get out of as many 2 or less's as possible.

 

Perhaps a speedier lineup can even beat a pitcher making his major league debut.

I figured 3 runs or less cause typically a quality start is 3 runs so anything over that a team should win more often than not.

 

However, I know Black Betsy wrote a similar piece using a little different stats a few days after the one I wrote which was really good.

 

http://blackbetsy.blogspot.com/2004/10/tea...jor-themes.html

 

Thats the link to his piece. I think your right and a good breakdown would be to see how many of those pitchers were aces that they lost to or barely scored against, cause those are the kind of guys where having a guy who can reach base and get to 2nd on a steal and maybe even 3rd can really make a difference.

 

But in the few piece set of that series of articles was that the Sox problems stemmed from an awful rotation and an awful bullpen and that this offseason they would have to fix the bullpen drastically (I wanted to good RH relievers) and that they needed another starter, one better then Contreras and Garland cause neither should be number 3 starters in this league until they prove they are capable.

 

Thus far Kenny seems to be following that main path and I think the pitching staff is the most important aspect this team needs to improve on it. They've done it with the pen now lets see them get Perez. I also think catcher is a bigger void then middle infield at this point although I'd like to see the Sox bring in an Alex Cora (on the more expensive side) or Alfredo Amazega to help out the infield.

 

But now that Harris can hit in the 9 hole I don't have a problem with him at all (well I never did). But this way the pressure isn't there and he's an above average defensive 2nd baseman who even while stinking part of the year last season put up a more then respectable OBP.

 

I think Willie steals 30-40 bases if he starts next year. Spod and Raines should help him out.

[Palehosefan]

Here is his 2002 minor league season, so I guess I don't see the point. If you are saying he can't be a good player because he spent so long in the minors, what does it matter? If he is hitting well in the minors and .275 career hitter in over 320 MLB games, why do you still want to doubt him? Just for the heck of it?

 

http://www.sportplanet.com/sbb/fdbl/wallma...ers/misc/94.htm

[Chisoxfn]

I looked at his minor league numbers and the nice thing you see is that his numbers trend upward. And that it seems like he wetn from a platoon player to an everyday player and an adjustment is needed there as well.

 

I think he's about a .270-.290 major league hitter and I think thats what we'll see him do next year.

[jackie hayes]

Here is his 2002 minor league season, so I guess I don't see the point. If you are saying he can't be a good player because he spent so long in the minors, what does it matter? If he is hitting well in the minors and .275 career hitter in over 320 MLB games, why do you still want to doubt him? Just for the heck of it?

 

http://www.sportplanet.com/sbb/fdbl/wallma...ers/misc/94.htm

And that is 1 year out of 9. Actually, check that, that is no year out of 9. Those stats are phony, or at least not Podsednik's. He was in AAA that year. The real stats. Where'd you dig this up?

 

Basically I'm echoing the point qwerty's been making -- all these okay years in the minors, never looked like a great player. Gets to the ML and has a monster year. What could possibly look more fluky? It's not that he was in the minors too long (bothers me a bit, but I do want to see Gload in the lineup, it's not that big a deal). It's that he never showed that level of talent before. Or after, so far.

 

Who knows -- his numbers in AAA were pretty good. Maybe he just got bored in A and AA. But I'm sceptical.

[Palehosefan]

Who knows where that site got that from, I searched for his minor league stats for a while and thats the only one I could find. Still good numbers in AAA, we can agree to disagree now and see what happens in the season :-).

[jackie hayes]

From http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewPlayerProfile.do?playerId=375: they have a breakdown of how he did at each level of the minor leagues. Actually not bad in A, but... Plain bad in AA. All in all, okay in AAA. His AAA stats look eerily similar to his ML avg. We'll see. But a .330 obp for a leadoff hitter isn't good enough.

[Chisoxfn]

Who knows where that site got that from, I searched for his minor league stats for a while and thats the only one I could find. Still good numbers in AAA, we can agree to disagree now and see what happens in the season :-).

www.sports-wired.com is where I also recommend. Awesome site.