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Sox ink Uribe to multiyear deal


YASNY

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Nice to see KW get a deal done here, as with the current market, Uribe probably could have gotten a lot more IF he was a FA. I think he knows he's in a real good situation, playing in a park that favours hitters tremendously, and he's in a clubhouse full of Latino guys. Hopefully 3 years from now, Uribe will be putting up Miggy Tejada like numbers, and that's no stretch.

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Well I would argue that Miggy Tejada numbers are a stretch, but I'll send you a nice bottle of wine when Juan rakes in 150 ribbies. I like the contract but it feels like nay time you do an extension with a Boras client that you are putting an expiration date on his tenure here. Does this eat into our budget surplus that we have come into? Just curious.

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.....And he hit .253 the yr before that.

 

Like I said, I like Juan and I don't have a prob with us signing him but the $$$ are based on a big statistical jump which can be problematic if he reverts back.

 

After a similar statistical jump in '99 Pokey Reese signed about the same contract we just gave Juan, after signing that contract there were definite regrets.

 

 

So since ARow is a .310 hitter and also a 1st yr arb guy we should be expecting that steal of a $3.5 mil deal, right?

I gotta side with UNS here........

 

I'd like to see another year from Mr. Uribe before locking him up. I see this signing as an example of the bigger problem with baseball. As soon as a guy has one good year, he is immediately rewarded with guaranteed contract for multiple years for millions of dollars. Baseball (and most sports in general) pay players for potential more so than performance. It is the biggest reason salaries escalate so damned much. Granted, Uribe performed, but it was his first good season.

 

Will this contract be looked upon as a good signing if Uribe turns out to be Pokey Reese? Desi Relaford? Neifi Perez? Jose Valentin (2nd half of 2004 Jose)?

 

I just hate the system that is in place. Any system that allows an "up and coming young GM" be an idiot and guarantee Pedro Martinez 4 years at that kind of price tag should be blown up.

 

I'm sorry I am getting into bigger picture issues here, but I can see why hockey wants to blow things up and start over.

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Honestly I have to disagree with those of you who say we should of seen another year from Uribe before we signed him.

Honestly what if he has another year like last year. Then he would be much more expensive. IMO it's better to get him long term while he's cheap and at the very least we have a solid utility player.

Gotta love this deal... :headbang

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Hopefully they'll announce a similar extension from Rowand some time this offseason. Although they may wait for him as well.

 

I have a lot of faith in Juan so I think this is a fantastic move, but people are right, if he regresses it bites the Sox in the ass. I don't think he will though.

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The problem with baseball isn't a guy has one good year and is awarded with a contract like this. The problem with baseball is any player could be making $3 or $4 million.

 

In baseball economics, the Yankees would file this contract under miscellanious expenses. Middle of the pack kind of guy. Flashes of brilliance. Solid citizen for a few years. Stay healthy and it seems like a solid, easy move. Congrats for Uribe :headbang

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So since ARow is a .310 hitter and also a 1st yr arb guy we should be expecting that steal of a $3.5 mil deal, right?

actually, I beleive the organization is much more confident in Arow than Uribe. I heard Kenny back in October say that locking Arow up was a priority of the off-season. I saw Rowand give an interview from what appeared to be a hotel lobby on the eve of the winter meetings. It would seem to me that he really didn't have any purpose there except if they were negotiating his new deal.

 

I expected Uribe to get a 1-year deal. then they would look to give him an extension at some point during the season. This is fine with me though. You have to remember what the market was like for SS's Christian Guzman got $16.8M!!! Uribe >> Guzman

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Looking at a quote from Kenny in the Uribe column. He alludes to the fact that he's offered similar type of deals to some other players.

 

I think Rowand is going to happen sometime this offseason. Going to get a little more money, but I don't know how much more, imo.

 

Plus looking at what guys like Guzman, Renteria, and other shortstops have gotten this year, this is a good deal, imo.

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This is a good contract for the CWS. 2+3+4+5(opt). That's not bad at all. Here's how you assess the contract. As long as he doesn't bomb out, you can trade him any of those years. Even if his performance declines somewhat. But in addition if his performance improves you have the possibility of an extension any of those years.

 

Let's see how he compares to Tejada:

Juan Uribe: VS. LEFT: .264 / .853 VS. RIGHT: .293 / .821 HOME: .315 / .959 AWAY: .248 / .696

OPS avg: 1030, 884, 720, 419, 884, 1006

 

M Tejada: VS. LEFT: .327 / 1.012 VS. RIGHT: .306 / .856 HOME: .303 / .887 AWAY: .318 / .902

OPS avg: 827, 896, 839, 1019, 870, 925

 

I'm willing to say that against RH & at home that comparison is reasonable, but against LH & away I don't see it ever happening. That's what separates the stars from just better than average players. Tejada's a complete ball player.

 

Still Uribe had 1 dismal month out of 6. The other 5 months were average, good, good, great, & great. That's pretty good.

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.....And he hit .253 the yr before that.

 

Like I said, I like Juan and I don't have a prob with us signing him but the $$$ are based on a big statistical jump which can be problematic if he reverts back.

 

After a similar statistical jump in '99 Pokey Reese signed about the same contract we just gave Juan, after signing that contract there were definite regrets.

 

 

So since ARow is a .310 hitter and also a 1st yr arb guy we should be expecting that steal of a $3.5 mil deal, right?

Statistical Jumps at the age of 24/25 are almost never flukes. They usally indicate an upward trend and just that a player is developing and is finally making the jump to reaching their potential. This guy is currently on a similar development track to Miguel Tejada and I see no reason why he cant be as good as Tejada in the coming years.

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This is a good contract for the CWS.  2+3+4+5(opt).  That's not bad at all.  Here's how you assess the contract.  As long as he doesn't bomb out, you can trade him any of those years.  Even if his performance declines somewhat.  But in addition if his performance improves you have the possibility of an extension any of those years.

 

Let's see how he compares to Tejada:

Juan Uribe: VS. LEFT: .264 / .853 VS. RIGHT: .293 / .821 HOME: .315 / .959 AWAY: .248 / .696 

OPS avg: 1030, 884, 720, 419, 884, 1006

 

M Tejada: VS. LEFT: .327 / 1.012 VS. RIGHT: .306 / .856 HOME: .303 / .887 AWAY: .318 / .902

OPS avg: 827, 896, 839, 1019, 870, 925

 

I'm willing to say that against RH & at home that comparison is reasonable, but against LH & away I don't see it ever happening.  That's what separates the stars from just better than average players.  Tejada's a complete ball player.

 

Still Uribe had 1 dismal month out of 6.  The other 5 months were average, good, good, great, & great.  That's pretty good.

Yeah, but at a similar point in Tejada's career I'm sure that he had similar problems. I wish I knew where to find the 1999ish splits to demonstrate my point. Tejada is an older, more developed player so of course he'll be more advanced than Uribe. He's further along in his career than Uribe. There's no reason why Uribe can't be a similar player at a similar point in their respective careers.

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Juan Uribe IS NOT Miguel Tejada. Tejada was a highly regarded prospect with a proven minor league track record. Tejada's success was expected.

 

Uribe is nearly the exact opposite. He was average at best in the minors, and has just began to develop. Uribe has shown some promise and finally had one good year. Tejada's path to success has been long and predictable.

 

There is no guarantee Juan's level of success will continue to climb. I am not saying it won't, but there can no accurate correlations made between Juan Uribe and Miguel Tejada.

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Statistical Jumps at the age of 24/25 are almost never flukes. They usally indicate an upward trend and just that a player is developing and is finally making the jump to reaching their potential.

 

Almost never flukes? Strong words......... Care to back them up?

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I'll give you off the top of my head......

 

At a comparatively similar point in his career Pokey Reese (turned 26 in the middle of the season - 3rd season in bigs - Uribe had actually played in 55 more MLB games) made a good jump and had a great year.

 

Although Reese did not have the power Uribe has, he stole 38 bases vs. Uribe's 9.

 

Reese hit .285 (16 points higher than he had ever hit, 29 points higher than he had hit in the Majors). He had 37 doubles, 10 HR and 52 RBI to go with the 38 stolen bases. All of those numbers sans possibly SB's were a big statistical jump.

 

Yet, Mr. Reese has never approached those numbers again. I am not trying to tear down Juan Uribe here, but only taking a wait and see attitude toward him. He could continue to get better or he could become the next Pokey Reese. Either way, he will be making a very good living playing for someone. But I'd like to see a guy prove himself for more than one year before we start comparing him to MVP calibur players.

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there can no accurate correlations made between Juan Uribe and Miguel Tejada.

I beg to differ. If you look statistically, there seems to be a very close correlation between the two:

 

1998 Miguel Tejada (22) 2003 Juan Uribe (23)

AB 365 316

BA .233 .253

OBP .298 .257

2B 20 19

HR 11 10

SLG .384 .427

BB 28 17

K 86 60

 

1999 Miguel Tejada (23) 2004 Juan Uribe (24)

AB 593 502

BA .251 .283

OBP .325 .327

2B 33 21

HR 21 23

SLG .427 .506

BB 57 32

K 94 96

 

2000 Miguel Tejada (24) 2005 Juan Uribe (25)

AB 607 ?????

BA .275 ?????

OBP .349 ?????

2B 32 ?????

HR 30 ?????

SLG .479 ?????

BB 66 ?????

K 102 ?????

 

Sure Uribe's strike zone issues are a little more pronounced than Tejada's but offensively they are following the same path. Tejeda just was more hyped and got a quicker start. If you dont pay attention to stats, I'm probably not going to win you over, but it doesnt hurt that they're both about 5'10" and 175 pounds and hail from the same town in the Dominican Republic (that last fact is irrelevant, but interesting anyways). The jump from where Uribe is now to where Tejada was in 2000 is not a very big one and I think Uribe can make that jump offensively. He already is very good defensively (not unlike Tejada). I think I've made a fair case for an "accurate correlation," whether you agree with it or not.

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