Nightmare PR possibility

[Gene Honda Civic]

Cheat, you can't honestly suggest these pitchers aren't valuable to our club because none of them are "impact players."

 

Where is Grilli on this ERA+ chart?  Or is his 5-9 wins acceptable because he's cheap?

 

When this ideal "impact player" is available next offseason, do you suppose his market valuelwill fall within our price range?  I'm not intending to put you on the spot, but what are we to do if market trends continue to favor players? Sit back and pick the cheap solution because there's a "low risk, high reward" clause?

No, I'm just saying that all these players that everyone is lusting over, and crying PR disaster if we don't sign them, are essentially Jon Garland clones... I know Jon Garland has value. But all I ever hear from Sox fans is how much he sucks. -- There was a thread I started late last night in my insomniatic state titled "the Market" you should read that if you've missed it.

 

Basically, with all these essentially average players getting outrageous contracts, it doesn't make sense for a finincially resposible team to sign any of them. The should spend the $ on the top tier talent, and not bother with the overpriced middling players. Signing a bunch of those guys is a good way to have an expensive losing team... You need some Top tier guys (MB, FG, PK, FT), home grown talent that produces (ARow and JG fall into that cetegory, Juan Uribe too because he's still relatively cheap) Hopefully if a couple of more cheap guys produce (Crede, Willie, Pods) The sox will be in good shape --

 

As for Grilli -- I don't think anyone here hates him as much as me. I will say this, and I'm not one of those typical chicken little sox fans, I will be calling for more than KW's head should Grilli be our opening week 5th starter.

 

We have at least 3 or 4 better options than Grilli on our roster for that job, and I can't believe that seemingly everyone in the organization doesn't see it that way. In fact, I dislike even the thought of Grilli so much that I avoid almost all topics like this.

[Flash Tizzle]

All along, KW has stated the line about saving the money for the trade deadline. 

 

Well, we all jumped on the RJ, Clement, and other rumors thinking that the Sox were going to go all out for them. 

 

However, why in the world would we think that we could compete with offers made by powerhouse budget teams like Yanks, Red Sox, and Angels?

I've only heard him mention saving money for the deadline twice; once in an article (MLB, IIRC), and during a radio interview. I assume the comment was stated as a worst case scenario, not as an indication he'd follow through.

 

Visualizing Clement on the Sox was not a figment of our imaginations. White Sox are currently listed as a team which has placed a bid for his services, in addition to a ESPN Insider article in which we're listed as a "mystery team."

 

We're not competing with the Yankees in this instance. Angels and Boston definitely have the upper hand, but until Clement's decision is known we're not out of it.

[SoxFan562004]

I've only heard him mention saving money for the deadline twice; once in an article (MLB, IIRC), and during a radio interview.  I assume the comment was stated as a worst case scenario, not as an indication he'd follow through. 

 

Visualizing Clement on the Sox was not a figment of our imaginations.  White Sox are currently listed as a team which has placed a bid for his services, in addition to a ESPN Insider article in which we we're listed as a "mystery team."

 

We're not competing with the Yankees in this instance.  Angels and Boston definitely have the upper hand, but until Clement's decision is known we're not out of it.

another thread is saying Levine heard tonight that Sox are "high" on the list and KW himself saying he was talking to his agent half the day on Saturday or Sunday

[southsideirish71]

No, I'm just saying that all these players that everyone is lusting over, and crying PR disaster if we don't sign them, are essentially Jon Garland clones... I know Jon Garland has value.  But all I ever hear from Sox fans is how much he sucks. -- There was a thread I started late last night in my insomniatic state titled "the Market" you should read that if you've missed it.

 

Basically, with all these essentially average players getting outrageous contracts, it doesn't make sense for a finincially resposible team to sign any of them.  The should spend the $ on the top tier talent, and not bother with the overpriced middling players.  Signing a bunch of those guys is a good way to have an expensive losing team... You need some Top tier guys (MB, FG, PK, FT), home grown talent that produces (ARow and JG fall into that cetegory, Juan Uribe too because he's still relatively cheap)  Hopefully if a couple of more cheap guys produce (Crede, Willie, Pods) The sox will be in good shape --

 

As for Grilli -- I don't think anyone here hates him as much as me.  I will say this, and I'm not one of those typical chicken little sox fans, I will be calling for more than KW's head should Grilli be our opening week 5th starter.

 

We have at least 3 or 4 better options than Grilli on our roster for that job, and I can't believe that seemingly everyone in the organization doesn't see it that way.  In fact, I dislike even the thought of Grilli so much that I avoid almost all topics like this.

As I see it the only possiblity is for Hermansen to take over the 5th starter. The rest of our guys need to either work on confidence or get a pair. We have seen this with numerous prospect pitchers that have come up. They get up and dance all over the strike zone almost afraid that the hitter will make contact. They walk everyone in site and then give up the big bomb. Garland still does this from time to time. His stuff should get him through anything. He should be south of the 4 ERA line not north of the 5 ERA.

 

Lets look under the hood of what we have in house.

 

Diaz. A lot of people like this guy. He does great in AAA, dominates it. Does good in the winter leagues. My only concerns is the quality of this guys stuff. He is a control pitcher who has a very straight fastball. He is about deception and pitch count. A free swinging team will look bad against him. Aka the first time he faced the cubs. But a team that takes a pitch or gets locked in just on his fastball will kill him. I think his confidence took a knock and if he goes out to start against the Injuns he will gets destroyed.

 

Cotts. Deceptive delivery. Lack of control. Again free swingers will go down against him. His problem is when someone works the count. He needs to develop a better breaking pitch. He has his fastball, his slider or fastcurve and his change. His change isnt something he gets over. And his slider/fastcurve is about the same velocity as his fastball. I question his mental makeup also. He completely self destructs ala the Ricky Vaughn. He is best to leave in as a reliever.

 

Munoz. Great curveball. But again he needs to get it over for strikes. If he does this his fastball is sneakyfast. Has better breaking stuff that the above two. He needs more time to mature.

 

Atkins. Possibly serviceable. He needs to concentrate more on his location. Good breaking pitch. Needs to learn how to pitch effectively in the zone. Not to just groove a pitch ala Mike Jackson every so often.

Diaz is great in the dominican league, he is great in AAA. But how comfortable do you feel putting him on the bump with cleveland?

 

Hermansen at least knows how to pitch as a major league pitcher. And lets be honest, he has to be better than what we saw last year. Hell I think that most of us could pick up a mitt, drive to the cell, and have better results that some of the number 5 starters did.

[southsideirish71]

I've only heard him mention saving money for the deadline twice; once in an article (MLB, IIRC), and during a radio interview.  I assume the comment was stated as a worst case scenario, not as an indication he'd follow through. 

 

Visualizing Clement on the Sox was not a figment of our imaginations.  White Sox are currently listed as a team which has placed a bid for his services, in addition to a ESPN Insider article in which we're listed as a "mystery team."

 

We're not competing with the Yankees in this instance.  Angels and Boston definitely have the upper hand, but until Clement's decision is known we're not out of it.

The deadline money thing is a red herring. Remember that yes we will take on that players salary at the mid season point. But we will lose something else that is harder to replace. That is prospects. We are not a 100 million dollar team, so our prospects must mix in with our FA's to fill out our team. The more impact players we trade away to save a few bucks for the first few months the more we hurt ourselves for years to come.

 

 

But if we could pick up a ben sheets...

[Gene Honda Civic]

Are you trying to make a case for Grilli?

[southsideirish71]

Are you trying to make a case for Grilli?

No,

 

Grilli is another non option. He has okay stuff. But again he is someone that needs to avoid the big inning. I dont know if he has the mental makeup of it. Its one thing to have your 5th starter who has a tendancy to give up 4 runs in a big inning. At least we could use our bullpen to go longer. All we are looking for in that situation is 5 innings. But now that we add the wild card Garland. Garland can come out and just look like cy young. The next start he could look like cy young and then when something goes wrong he walks a few and gives up the big inning.

 

Having one pitcher who has the possiblity of either looking good or bad in a start is one thing. Having multiple pitchers in the starting rotation will stretch our bullpen.

 

Its also a domino effect. If Garland is our number 5. I think his ERA is south of 4.30. He is someone that thinks too much on the mound. He lets things build up. Putting him in the number 3 spot last year was a huge pressure point. Yes he has the stuff to be a number 3. But he needs to get some confidence to do that. At some point Jon will start to believe in his stuff and then will be a guy who can win 17 games.

 

Saying that, contreras is a mixed bag also. As a number 3 he can look like cy young or cy disaster.

 

I think the cost of getting a big time FA pitcher will be offset by the change in the makeup not only pyschology of our rotation. We move contreras and garland down. We lessen the stress on them and make them only that much better.

[3E8]

I think KW saw the movie 'Miracle' and got inspired. At least we will lead the league in AAP next year (Acceptable Attitude Percentage).

[southsideirish71]

The best PR move for this team would be to sign clement and pick up AJ.

 

AJ is a dick and all, but he teaming up with our catching crew would be killer. Make him the primary catcher and use Ben Davis to catch a few guys saving AJ's knees. With AJ in the lineup we could deal with Willie Harris at 2nd.

 

LF Pod

SS Uribe

RF Dye

1B Konerko

DH Thomas(Everett)

CF Rowand

C AJ

3B Crede

2B Harris

[Jordan4life_2007]

The best PR move for this team would be to sign clement and pick up AJ. 

 

AJ is a dick and all, but he teaming up with our catching crew would be killer.  Make him the primary catcher and use Ben Davis to catch a few guys saving AJ's knees.  With AJ in the lineup we could deal with Willie Harris at 2nd. 

 

LF Pod

SS Uribe

RF Dye

1B Konerko

DH Thomas(Everett)

CF Rowand

C AJ

3B Crede

2B Harris

That all sounds great, which is exactly why it won't happen.

[Gene Honda Civic]

I don't uderstand the if garland is #5 then he will have a lower ERA... You're still pitching every 5th day in the same league. You're facing the same hitters, in the same situations.... Nobody cares what number is attatched to your rotation spot.

 

-----------

pitchers often don't suceed when they first come up..

 

Randy Johnson was 10-13 with a 4.48 ERA in his first two seasons, back before R/G got out of control. 4.48 was well over league average for the time.

 

Curt Schilling was 0-4 in his first two seasons, with an pitiful ERA of 9.25

 

You'd be hard pressed to be an accurate judge of a pitchers longevity in the Big leagues based on their first few innings in the bigs.

[southsideirish71]

I don't uderstand the if garland is #5 then he will have a lower ERA...  You're still pitching every 5th day in the same league. You're facing the same hitters, in the same situations.... Nobody cares what number is attatched to your rotation spot.

 

-----------

pitchers often don't suceed when they first come up..

 

Randy Johnson was 10-13 with a 4.48 ERA in his first two seasons, back before R/G got out of control. 4.48 was well over league average for the time.

 

Curt Schilling was 0-4 in his first two seasons, with an pitiful ERA of 9.25

 

You'd be hard pressed to be an accurate judge of a pitchers longevity in the Big leagues based on their first few innings in the bigs.

Garland has the tools, but doesnt do well with pressure. That is why an error, or just mental fortitude causes him to walk a few hitters and then groove a pitch down the cock to be slammed.

 

First few years? Garland has been a major league pitcher for more than a few years. This is the point he should start to mature and get over the hump. Buerhle is a success because he is aggressive and ptiches without fear. Garland on the other hand pitches without fear and then at some point in the game, loses his grip.

 

 

The reason I think his ERA will plummet in the 5th starter role.

 

As a fifth starter he will get paired up against other 5s and possibly 4s. He would be better than just about 90 percent of the pitchers he would face in this role and therefore would have a better chance to win the game.

As a fifth starter the pressure to be perfect is not there. He can just throw instead of thinking of every pitch and what happens with it.

 

 

Garland has all the talent in the world, just not the stones to win. You take the pressure off of him he will pitch a lot better. I think the hype last year of "this is his year" was too much.

[Chisoxfn]

I don't uderstand the if garland is #5 then he will have a lower ERA...  You're still pitching every 5th day in the same league. You're facing the same hitters, in the same situations.... Nobody cares what number is attatched to your rotation spot.

 

-----------

pitchers often don't suceed when they first come up..

 

Randy Johnson was 10-13 with a 4.48 ERA in his first two seasons, back before R/G got out of control. 4.48 was well over league average for the time.

 

Curt Schilling was 0-4 in his first two seasons, with an pitiful ERA of 9.25

 

You'd be hard pressed to be an accurate judge of a pitchers longevity in the Big leagues based on their first few innings in the bigs.

I can see the argument for more wins, but even that I'm not big of a fan on. I think with the rainouts and everything else, its pretty much invevitable that the number 5 will face an ace near as much as they face a #5 so its at least a semi wash.

 

Late in the season that wouldn't hold to be the case. I could maybe see Garland doing more due to the fact he gains confidence from the wins and feels less pressure, but he doesn't seem like a guy that lets the pressure effect him.

[Gene Honda Civic]

yeah i separated the second part cuz I wasn't referring to Garland there -- More towards your loathing for anyone in the sox system despite their limited experience at the bigs. Clearly we've seen enough of Garland to be able to judge him...

[Punch and Judy Garland]

Judy is a bit inconsistent for sure but I think he bothers people more for his whining than for his pitching. Sometimes you have to look at a guy with all of the potential in the world (Kerry Wood or Aaron Brooks) and realize that yhou may only get what you see in front of you. That possibility certainly exists with garland. I think if you took a poll around here that people would vote to keep Judy by a landslide. I never favor fans booing pitchers for pitching poorly. I just think it is completely counterproductive. If I got to a Sox game and Buehrle gives up 8 runs in 2/3 of an inning I say them's the breaks and its just part of the deal. BUT, Judy handled the booing really poorly and turned out to not just be an isolated incident. Take the berating of Konerko over an error. Garland needs to really grow up this season, and I really think he might.

[YASNY]

I don't think there will be a Nightmare PR disaster if the Sox don't overpay for one of these mediocre pitchers on the free agent market. At least, there won't be any legitimacy to it. To start, they certain tried to acquire Randy Johnson. That's an unarguable fact. In fact, they got back in it when they were considered out of it. We all heard the names being thrown out there in exchange for Johnson and the majority -- not everyone, but most -- thought the DBack's were a brick short of a full load. Ok, KW tried but could not come to a reasonable deal with Arizona. Clement is going to sign with someone for between $21 and 30 million over 3 years. Is he worth it knowing the Sox budget constraints? Not realistically. I heard people complain that we were overpaying Garland, yet he has been very near Clement successwise. If we lose out on Clement, it wasn't for the lack of a good effort.

 

Saying that KW may hold onto the money would piss a lot of Sox fans off. So be it, then. Get pissed. That may very well turn out to be the smart thing to do. Let me put a hypothetical situation out there. Pedro's arm falls off on opening day at Shea and the Mets go right in the tank. Knowing that they blew their proverbial payroll wad on their new armless starter, Minaya decide to cut bait and restock the farm system. So, on May 15th the Sox trade a couple of prospects for say, Tom Glavine. Hmmm. I think I could live with that. Sometimes the deal you don't make is the best one of all.

 

Also, if Grilli is one of the options for the 5th starter come spring training, I think he's entitled to a shot at earning it as well as anyone else they've got. I do not think it is fair to judge Grilli on 2004 as he was in the 2nd year of the well established two year recovery cycle from TJ surgery. I'll start evaluating Jason Grilli in ST and go from there. He very well may be the best of the bunch (of potential 5th starters) and there is no reason not to give him the same opportunity of winning that job as anybody else.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

The best PR move for this team would be to sign clement and pick up AJ. 

 

AJ is a dick and all, but he teaming up with our catching crew would be killer.  Make him the primary catcher and use Ben Davis to catch a few guys saving AJ's knees.  With AJ in the lineup we could deal with Willie Harris at 2nd. 

 

LF Pod

SS Uribe

RF Dye

1B Konerko

DH Thomas(Everett)

CF Rowand

C AJ

3B Crede

2B Harris

That would be the best case scenario and I think its a very realistic one as well. We've got the cash for it so there's really no excuse why KW cant make this happen.

[Flash Tizzle]

Saying that KW may hold onto the money would piss a lot of Sox fans off.  So be it, then.  Get pissed.  That may very well turn out to be the smart thing to do.  Let me put a hypothetical situation out there.  Pedro's arm falls off on opening day at Shea and the Mets go right in the tank.  Knowing that they blew their proverbial payroll wad on their new armless starter, Minaya decide to cut bait and restock the farm system.  So, on May 15th the Sox trade a couple of prospects for say, Tom Glavine.  Hmmm.  I think I could live with that.  Sometimes the deal you don't make is the best one of all. 

I'd love to hear Williams convince fans holding 6 million until midseason, when they might not even be in contention, is worth it. He'll be reminded EVERY game following a Grilli loss, or a Willie Harris/Ben Davis slump that replacements were available; but blatantly ignored.

 

It's certaintly not Williams fault the market has inflated, but no one can convince me Lee's departure wasn't designed to free up money for this offseason.

 

I simply don't understand what message Williams is sending by signing Dye/Hermanson and trading for Podsednik/Vizcaino, but holding onto 6 million for a phantom July trade. It doesn't make sense, and I honestly don't believe he'll do this. Baseball is an odd sport; there's no telling which teams or players are available. I could imagine, in the grand scheme of Williams mind, absolutely no suitable starters available on the mid-season market.

 

There are available players out there which fit well with this club. If Williams has other plans, he might as well tell us now and save 3 months of speculation. It'll give me sufficient time to write a speech for Soxfest.

 

One question: July approaches, and Sox are limping 10 games behind first place. Now, how exactly does Williams explain his inactivity the previous offseason? Does he decide to spend money and go for it, or pack it in and prepare for 06? Brilliant factor related to the offseason is every team is 0-0. Spend now, worry later; not the other way around.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

I'd love to hear Williams convince fans holding 6 million until midseason, when they might not even be in contention, is worth it.  He'll be reminded EVERY game following a Grilli loss, or a Willie Harris/Ben Davis slump that replacements were available; but blatantly ignored.

I dont think KW is that dumb. It bit him in the ass big time last season so I dont think he's gonna try that madness again.

 

 

//hopes like hell I dont have to eat those words later.

[YASNY]

I don't think Williams planned on holding the money till July, as evidenced by the Sox being in the Clement sweepstakes. I'm saying there does come a point where his best option might turn out to be to hold on to it rather than spend it just to keep a bunch of fans from getting pissed.

[whitesox91403]

I don't think Williams planned on holding the money till July, as evidenced by the Sox being in the Clement sweepstakes.  I'm saying there does come a point where his best option might turn out to be to hold on to it rather than spend it just to keep a bunch of fans from getting pissed.

No, I don't think KW planned to save that monry until July either. However, The Sox have other holes besides the 5th starter spot (I think all can agree that is the biggest). But, when potentially guys like AJ, Polanco, Cairo, etc.......... can be had fot that money and are potentially signed by other teams for an amount within The Sox budget, then the CLEE trade to me looks like a salary dump. The mere tthought of KW mentioning this scares me that was possibly the plan all along.

[YASNY]

No, I don't think KW planned to save that monry until July either. However, The Sox have other holes besides the 5th starter spot (I think all can agree that is the biggest). But, when potentially guys like AJ, Polanco, Cairo, etc.......... can be had fot that money and are potentially signed by other teams for an amount within The Sox budget, then the CLEE trade to me looks like a salary dump. The mere tthought of KW mentioning this scares me that was possibly the plan all along.

Then we've still got the lack of a starter problem and no money to address it.

[whitesox91403]

Then we've still got the lack of a starter problem and no money to address it.

I consider Dustin Hermanson an option for the 5th starter spot. I know others disagree. So, if we lose out on Clement, (which, IMO, if we do, we will lose Perez too) why not sign a guy like Antonio Osuna or Jeff Nelson for the pen and fill the other holes? I just don't see how KW can justify sitting on that money.

[YASNY]

At some point, sitting on it becomes the smart thing to do. I'm not saying that point is upon us yet. But I'd rather see him sit and wait for a good opportunity, than to spend it without getting much in return. I don't want this to happen, but if he decides that's his best course of action, I'm not going to crucify him for doing so.

[fathom]

The general manager's main responsibility is to put a contending team on the field while staying within a set budget and maintaining an equilibrium for the future of the franchise.

 

Has KW achieved the goal of putting together a contending team? If you asked any non-biased expert, they would say right now that the Sox are an average team that would be picked to finish either 3rd or 4th in the AL Central. If KW really has maximized his budget already with this roster, then he failed at putting together this team. For two straight years now, the 5th starter has been our biggest downfall. However, he has done nothing to solve this problem. And anyone saying that Dustin Hermanson should start needs to realize that not only has he had a history of injury problems recently, but he also was unable to have an ERA under 4.5 last year in the National League in a monsterous pitcher's park. There's no chance he could maintain a 5 ERA next year as a starter.

 

Hopefully, KW will add to this roster in the future to put a contending team on the field. If not, there's no way that Reinsdorf can justify keeping KW in the position where he hasn't produced a division champion in the worst division in baseball with the highest divisional payroll most years.