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Brandon McCarthy


aboz56

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While I do not advocate rushing pitchers along, this question is mainly posed to those in the know on the Sox minors (Jas, Rex, danman, Cerb and yes, Mr. heads).

 

IF we stand pat and do not acquire another pitcher heading to Tucson, what kind of look will McCarthy get in ST?

 

And realistically, how far away is he from the show?

 

This is one of the guys I'd love to see, but haven't yet got the chance.

 

I know many who have seen him are thrilled and I know KW has gone as far as to mention him (even if it was as Adam).

 

Don't overreact and call me crazy for wanting to throw Brandon into the fire, I am just wondering where he stands in the mix.

 

Personally, I don't really want to just throw money at Perez just so we have another starter. But hey, that's just me. I'd rather not regret giving someone a huge contract that doesn't deserve it and spend it wisely when the personnel matches the contract.

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If B-Mac pitches well in Birmingham, I see his next move will be up to the Sox and not the Knights. This is because of a number of reasons such as;

 

1 - The Sox showed they will promote pitchers from AA to the Sox if they produce e.g Arnie Munoz

2 - Charlotte has a hitters park.

3 - Charlotte will most likely have a very full rotation.

 

If B-Mac can keep his HR totals down and the K numbers up, we could see him up by July, although I'd still like to see him have a full year at B-Ham and Charlotte for 2005, and if he produces, he can most likely have a job out of spring training in 2006, like Joe Blanton will for the A's.

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If B-Mac pitches well in Birmingham, I see his next move will be up to the Sox and not the Knights. This is because of a number of reasons such as;

 

1 - The Sox showed they will promote pitchers from AA to the Sox if they produce e.g Arnie Munoz

2 - Charlotte has a hitters park.

3 - Charlotte will most likely have a very full rotation.

 

If B-Mac can keep his HR totals down and the K numbers up, we could see him up by July, although I'd still like to see him have a full year at B-Ham and Charlotte for 2005, and if he produces, he can most likely have a job out of spring training in 2006, like Joe Blanton will for the A's.

I think he has a chance of sticking with the big team. To paraphrase the great Roland Hemond, the good ones come fast. If BMac out pitches Grilli and the other suspects in ST the Sox will keep him. Oz showed he is not afraid to go with performance over reputation by keeping Gload and Burke on the roster when camp broke last year.

 

Ozzie is not a 'development' guy, it all comes down to getting guys out.

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I think he has a chance of sticking with the big team.  To paraphrase the great Roland Hemond, the good ones come fast.  If BMac out pitches Grilli and the other suspects in ST the Sox will keep him.  Oz showed he is not afraid to go with performance over reputation by keeping Gload and Burke on the roster when camp broke last year.

 

Ozzie is not a 'development' guy, it all comes down to getting guys out.

But long - term it could hurt B-Mac if he's counted on as the 5th starter and killed early. I'd prefer him to earn a spot through AA at least, before he can be counted on, and I've got no doubts he can do that.

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My take is that Brandon would have to elevate his game tremendously to have an opportunity to make the big club out of ST. While his potential is excellent, he still has a lot to learn. I believe he needs time in Charlotte for two main reasons:

 

1. Charlotte is a hitter's park. What better way to ready yourself for USCF than to pitch in another bandbox. The safety and security of the Hoover Met is great for young pitchers, but it is basically the polar opposite of the ballpark in Chicago. A simple example in BMac's first start at home for the Barons, he got hit hard by Carolina. While he only gave up 5 hits in 6 IP, several balls were hit hard that ended up as outs, including at least two balls that would have been HR in almost any other minor league park. Giving a kid time to learn at different levels will only make him better once he gets to Chicago.

 

2. There are more veteran, professional hitters in AAA. Hitters that have been around long enough to know how to make adjustments in their 2nd, 3rd, 4th AB against a pitcher. MLB hitters are even better in that regard. Brandon seemed too predictable last year in the short time I saw him. He almost always started a hitter off with a fastball or two and when he got ahead he immediately went to his curveball. Hitters will recognize such patterns and make him pay. He will have to learn to mix things up, to start hitters off with a curveball or changeup, to double up on occasion to keep hitters honest.

 

The bottom line is he just needs time. The Sox aren't going to be in a position to let him come up, get hammered and learn OTJ at the Major League level. Brandon allowed 4 ER in three of his 5 AA starts. Two were against veteran hitting clubs in Carolina and Chattanooga and the other was against Mobile, who he had previously made one start against. His biggest strength is pounding the strike zone and rarely walking hitters. As hitters adjust, he will have to as well or that will become an achilles heel. He will have to mix things up better and sometimes be selectively wild. Once he learns those things against better hitters, he'll be fine.

 

All that said, the Sox will know soon in ST whether he has a chance or not. I don't see them focusing on him in the role of trying to earn a spot, but they will give him a good long look because they want to see what they have in him. They want him to learn what it is like to be a big leaguer.

 

It would be a longshot for him to make the club, especially before July or August. More likely, he could be a September call up or join the club earlier if (yes, I am saying it lol) the Sox are out of playoff contention.

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The Sox need to resist the urge to call up players too early. Their arbitration/free agency clock needs to be delayed so as the Sox won't lose the good ones before they hit their prime. It also serves the purpose of giving the kids time to learn how to play the game the right way. More experience in the minors, means less learning on the job at the major league level.

 

To me, this is the key to Twins success. They took the hit with their young players 6 years ago and let some play at the big league level, and suffered because of it. Since then, just about every kid they've called up has been major league ready or very close to it. The A's are showing a similar pattern now, but they are trading for young major league ready players in addition to developing them

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Hmm.  I agree with Rex.

 

On another note, if we come into camp without a 5th starter, what about Bobby Jenks?  Does he deserve a look?  Or is he not healthy enough yet, or are they even going to try him as a starter?

Jenks is a non-possibility to start the season anywhere but the DL. He had a screw put in his elbow. His future is in the Pen.

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I would have to think that the Sox aren't going to ever consider giving BMac the starting job out of ST. I'm thinking that ST will be more of a time for the Sox to determine whether to put him in AA or AAA to start the year. If he sets the world on fire in ST I think the most to expect is that he will start in AAA and would be the first candidate to be called up if the original 5th starter fails. As Rex said, some AAA time could be useful for many reasons. Also, BMac is still very young and there is no need to rush him along any more so than has already been done. I'm in the group that wants him in AAA to start the season, especially if he does well in ST. However, a bit of AA time wouldn't hurt him and like Rex said, he would need some AAA time before hitting the majors. If the Sox decide to be patient with him this season, he shouldn't be with the Sox until July or later. If they decide to rush him along, he would probably be with the Sox around May.

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I expect him to get an invite and to get at least one start. But mainly I think he'll throw out of the pen a bit during spring. Unless there are some injuries or both Diaz/Cotts/Grilli get lit up, then I don't think you'll see the Sox give him much of a shot to win a job now.

 

If he pitches absolute lights out, maybe. Still, I expect him to start the year in Bham and if he pitches well move up to Charlotte rather fast. The soonest I could see him getting called up is middle of the season, but I think he'll be seen in September with the Sox just giving him a little look before next season.

 

I do think Bmac is one of those guys who once up, is going to be capable of starting off good, soley because of his control. I've long noticed guys with good control are more ready to handle the majors from the get-go.

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Hmm.  I agree with Rex.

 

On another note, if we come into camp without a 5th starter, what about Bobby Jenks?  Does he deserve a look?  Or is he not healthy enough yet, or are they even going to try him as a starter?

Jenks is going to take most of the year to get back into his groove. However, don't count out him coming up late in the season and having a positive effect on this club. I think, if healthy, Jenks will be a mainstay in the pen starting next year.

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I would rather a veteran(Schoeneweis or Hermanson> Diaz or Grilli > Rookie) handle the few spot starts needed early. Let the youngsters get in a groove in the minors and bring them up when their rotation spot is a little more consistant. I would let them know they are getting several starts to help them relax. If this approach were taken with someone who has some major league experience like Diaz or Cotts I think they would benefit. Grilli is out of options so we have to use him or lose him!

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Rex' analysis is outstanding.

 

I think, however, Oz will give him opprotunity to further his 'education' in ST. If Rex is right, and he's seen quite a lot of him, BMac will get singed in ST and it will reinforce to him what he needs to improve on. But never say never on any club run by Ozzie. He seems a very short term guy, and I think he will keep who he thinks can win now and screw the nurturing.

 

There was a long debate on these boards last year on whether Cotts should have started out with the big club or needed some more seasoning. With Wunsch going down, Cotts was the best situational lefty on the roster so he stuck. This may or may not have helped his development.

 

If Brandon does well while the usual suspects get hit, it is not impossible for him to break camp for Chicago. I didn't say probable, just not impossible.

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