TeeBall 5th starter

[Guest JimH]

Diaz has talent. So does Grilli.

 

Let's look back and see what Sox management said about both, and their histories.

 

Diaz has three pitches - fastball, slider, change. He had trouble locating all three pitches. Yes, he got jerked around but that's life in the big leagues. It happens.

 

Diaz has had durability issues in the minors, has had a tender arm several times in his career. Guillen strongly suggested he's better suited as a reliever, KW didn't say much but Diaz ended up in the bullpen. IMO, Diaz has a decent chance to be a Politte type guy ... give you 1-2 strong innings.

 

Grilli ... lots of injury problems since 1997. The second half of the year he was finally healthy but his control is awful. Both Guillen and KW commented that he looked very good in his last few starts.

 

Of the two, Grilli has better stuff with more movement. Grilli doesn't trust his stuff as much as he should. His mechanics are more higher maintenance.

 

The thing I like about Grilli vs. Diaz is that Grilli will work both sides of the plate. Diaz was tentative and very reluctant to work inside. That is a big problem, and I remember Harrelson and Jackson commenting on it while Diaz was getting pounded.

 

For 2005, this team cannot afford another science experiment at 5th starter. The Sox should move Diaz to the bullpen and let him fight it out with Adkins or whomever for the 11th/12th spot. Give him an important bullpen role in Charlotte and see how he does. If your manager (Guillen) doesn't have faith in the guy as a starter - and the manager is sticking around - put Diaz in a role where he might contribute.

 

As for Grilli, he's a depth starter until he proves at AAA he's something better.

 

Again, just my opinion but I watched these two guys very closely in Tucson and Chicago. To my eye, Grilli clearly has better stuff and has a better idea of what he's doing. Grilli is a bulldog. Diaz ... I'm not so sure.

[CWSGuy406]

Jim, you bring up some good points, but I disagree with your main premise. As I showed in my earlier post, Diaz was bumped around, and while you say that's really the life of a major leaguer, that's not really fair to Diaz.

 

They gave him two starts, at most (in a row), to give him a chance to prove himself. There is no way you can judge a pitcher on two starts, yank him, give him another chance two months later, yank him. There has to be a little bit of a routine. After six-seven starts, he's still not showing consistency, then yank him -- but this organization, as a whole, really sucks at getting young pitchers adapted to the bigs (outside of Buehrle).

 

I also disagree with your point about Grilli knowing how to pitch. Sure, the stuff is there, but he has absolutely no control. He also didn't have one quality start, and he was garbage almost every time (save for MAYBE one time) he came to the hill. Diaz, OTOH, was able to put up really dominant numbers at AAA -- awesome K numbers, as well as low BB totals. A guy doesn't strike out ten guys per game (consistently) without knowing how to pitch. Like I said, that just doesn't go away, especially for the length of time that Diaz did it -- one doesn't just lose his control. Thus, I chalk up many of Diaz' starts (again -- poorly placed starts from the White Sox' organization's standpoint, one on three days rest, one on eight days rest) to jitters.

 

While I'm part of a small contingent on this board, I definitely believe that Diaz has the chance to be a solid #3-#4 starter for the White Sox.

[Guest JimH]

Keith, good analysis and you are correct that Diaz wasn't treated fairly.

 

At best, he'd be a 5th starter in 2005 for the Sox. The 5th starter spot gets jerked around a lot. Not just by the White Sox, but just about every team. I think we agree the White Sox need a veteran at #5.

 

As for Diaz's potential, it's tough to judge. I thought it was very telling that Guillen said he felt Diaz didn't have the quality pitches to be a major league starter. Now of course that doesn't make Guillen right, but it was very obvious to me that Diaz would not pitch inside. Jitters? Maybe. Great stats at AAA? Definitely. It will be very interesting where they slot him. I suspect it will be in the bullpen now.

 

Grilli ... he did have one outstanding start, if memory serves on the road vs. Detroit. You are right, his control was/is awful.

 

But here is the thing Keith. I saw Grilli in spring and he had nowhere near the velocity or movement he did in September. Grilli was about 12 months removed from Tommy John in March '04. By late season, he was much stronger and I just loved how he was not afraid to pitch inside. Not saying Diaz is afraid, but he didn't do it.

 

For a reference point, see Jon Leiber. When he got 18 months removed from Tommy John, look at how much more effective he was in the 2nd half.

 

Grilli's problem is trusting his stuff, which is heavy and nasty ... and it moves. On raw stuff, and tenacity, I'd take Grilli.

 

It will be interesting to see if either ends up succeeding at the big league level.

[CWSGuy406]

Definitely agree with all of your points.

 

It would be a plus if both of these guys turn out to be special ballplayers, whether it be in the bullpen or as a starter.

 

I also wanted to add that I think Grilli has a higher ceiling. I believe that if he's able to put it all together (control, stuff, mental), then we'll have a really good starter on our hands. I just think that Diaz has a chance to be a more reliable starter, and definitely (not this year), a good number four.

 

One more thing -- I know you said that you didn't necessarily agree/disagree with Guillen's analysis, but I definitely don't like Guillen's thoughts on some of the players on this team (Harris, Lee, and Grilli, to name a few). I dunno, maybe it's a good thing, but I think Guillen is a little too stubborn. I didn't like how he handled Harris last season, nor how he said that Lee wasn't a complete player (because Lee was as close to complete as any player on this team). His thoughts on Grilli are really discouraging, too, as I've seen nothing that he can become a sold major league starter.

[Chisoxmatt]

IMO, I would make Jon # 4 and Jose #5 for the reason, when we are not going to use JOSE because of days off, we can use him in the pen which he has excelled at in the past. I don't think Jonny would do well in the same situation.

Thats a good idea. Contreras would be a good middle relief or even a set-up guy if other players have been over-worked. Also Garland had 1 relief appearance last year and he pitched horribly.

[qwerty]

Thats a good idea.  Contreras would be a good middle relief or even a set-up guy if other players have been over-worked.  Also Garland had 1 relief appearance last year and he pitched horribly.

Welcome to soxtalk.

[YASNY]

Regarding the point about Grilli and the Tommy John surgery, that is a point I've tried to make a few times this off season. So many posters can't get past his high ERA without taking that into consideration. I'm not saying we should give Grilli the 5th spot, but he should get the opportunity to earn it now that he has gone the full recovery cycle of the TJ surgery.

 

These preconceived notions saying one pitcher or the other SHOULD be the 5th starter is flat out wrong. Give them the ball in Tucson and let's see who grabs the position. Discussing the relative strengths and weaknesses of each pitcher is one thing, but let them decide who earns the spot while on the mound this spring. I don't condone GIVING it to any of them, as none of them have earned that type of consideration as of yet.

[LDF]

for a gamble why not take a chance and sign miller and still go for some other fa's that is out there