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2004 Win Share report


JUGGERNAUT

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Now look at the Twins:

 

PRE-AS-04:

9+: 12W

=8: 5W, 1L

=7: 6W, 1L

=6: 8W, 4L

=5: 3W, 1L

=4: 9W,4L

=3: 5W,6L

=2: 1W, 10L

=1: 1W, 8L

=0: 4L

 

 

POS-AS-04:

9+ 5W, 1L

=8 8W

=7 7W, 1L

=6 6W, 3L

=5 5W, 1L

=4 8W, 3L

=3 3W, 9L

=2 1W, 7L

=1 4L

 

 

SOX 04

RPG < 8: 25W, 35L -10

RPG < 8: 22W, 38L -16

vs

MIN 04

RPG < 8: 33W, 38L -5

RPG < 8: 30W, 28L +2

 

Did Kenny do enough to give the Sox the edge?

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Pen comparisons:

SOX

ST: 6-4 208BAvs

DM: 6-5 252BAvs

DH: 3-6 238BAvs

LV: 4-4 252BAvs

CP: 0-3 288BAvs

NC: 4-4 252BAvs

JA: 2-3 313BAvs

 

I prefer Cotts to Adkins. That 313 BAvs is scary.

 

MIN:

JN: 0-2 188 BAvs

JR: 3-3 185 BAvs

JCR: 3-3 199 BAvs

JC: 3-0 179 BAvs

GB 1-1 276 BAvs

MG 0-0 243 BAvs

TM: 4-6 331 BAvs

 

Wow! Where does MIN find these guys?

 

This thread includes Cleveland in the debate.

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?sh...61entry574161

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Adkins was better than Cotts last season.  Just look at their ERA's by month. It's too bad Adkins isn't a lefty.

 

How can you say that? Opponents hit 313 vs Adkins in the 2nd half!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

They only hit 252 vs Cotts. If it was close like say 283 vs 252 I would give Adkins the nod, but 313? That's a recipe for losing.

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QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Feb 2, 2005 -> 04:16 PM)
How can you say that?  Opponents hit 313 vs Adkins in the 2nd half!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

They only hit 252 vs Cotts. If it was close like say 283 vs 252 I would give Adkins the nod, but 313?  That's a recipe for losing.

It's hard to hit Cotts considering he can't get it over the plate. :rolly

 

Cotts (ERA by Month):

April: .90

May: 7.00

June: 8.68

July: 9.45

August: 2.30

September: 7.98

 

That's terrible :headshake

 

Adkins (ERA by Month):

April: 4.05

May: 2.25

June: 1.69

July: 5.23

August: 4.96

September: 7.94

 

Guillen was really absuing Adkins in August and September, which led to some horrific outings.

 

Cotts (WHIP by Month):

April: 1.00

May: 1.67

June: 1.61

July: 1.20 (Cotts allowed 8 baserunners and 7 scored.)

August: 1.21

September: 1.64

 

Adkins (WHIP by Month):

April: 1.80

May: 1.33

June: 1.31

July: 1.65

August: 1.41

September: 1.76

 

I give Adkins the slight edge, but because Neal is a lefty I would give him the last slot in the bullpen (assuming we only carry 11 pitchers.)

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It's hard to hit Cotts considering he can't get it over the plate.  :rolly

 

Cotts (ERA by Month):

April: .90

May: 7.00

June: 8.68

July: 9.45

August: 2.30

September: 7.98

 

That's terrible  :headshake

 

Adkins (ERA by Month):

April: 4.05

May: 2.25

June: 1.69

July: 5.23

August: 4.96

September: 7.94

 

Guillen was really absuing Adkins in August and September, which led to some horrific outings.

 

Cotts (WHIP by Month):

April: 1.00

May: 1.67

June: 1.61

July: 1.20 (Cotts allowed 8 baserunners and 7 scored.)

August: 1.21

September: 1.64

 

Adkins (WHIP by Month):

April: 1.80

May: 1.33

June: 1.31

July: 1.65

August: 1.41

September: 1.76

 

I give Adkins the slight edge, but because Neal is a lefty I would give him the last slot in the bullpen (assuming we only carry 11 pitchers.)

 

That's an unfair comparison. Cotts had a whacked out start. We should really compare their relief stats ONLY!

NC RP 5.29ERA, 4-3, 63IP, 11HR, 29W, 57K, 237BAv

JA RP 4.65ERA, 2-3, 62IP, 13HR, 20W, 44K, 305BAv

 

Adkins has a better era because he was lucky in the first 1/2. It all went to pot

for him in the 2nd.

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QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Feb 2, 2005 -> 05:08 PM)
You can deny it if you want, but when you look at his WHIP for both half's & his ERA what other conclusion can you drawn?

Adkins pitched himslef into less trouble. Cotts needs better control. Like I said, once Adkins started pitching well Ozzie was marching him out there every night. Don't forget that in September Politte went on the DL, Jackson was released, and Ozzie didn't have much faith in Diaz which led to both of them getting a lot more innings.

 

I remember Hawk talking about it on a broadcast;

I was talking to big Jon (Adkins) today, and I told him the reason why Ozzie keeps putting you out there every night is because you're a stud.

 

Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing them both in the bullpen for 2005.

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Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing them both in the bullpen for 2005.

 

You have to keep in mind that Everett will be a bench player when Thomas returns.

With 4 new everday position players in 05, the SOX need a 5 man bench.

Gload, Timo, Davis - sure things. If Davis were to fail miserably or go down then Burke would take his spot.

 

That leaves 2 open spots. One of which Everett will take when Thomas returns.

Start of the season: Harris, Ozuna (or the other SS guy)

Thomas returns: Everett, & one of the above 2 is sent down/cut.

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The Cotts vs Adkins thing for the final pen spot should work itself out in ST.

They both had bad Sept so I think it's wide open. OZ probably is leaning towards Cotts because he's a LH.

 

LH couldn't buy a hit vs Vizcaino in 04 (.163BA, .245OBP, .341S).

LH couldn't buy one off Marte either (.143BA, .259OBP, .214S).

So there isn't a great need for a LH like Cotts but I know OZ likes balance.

 

Surprisingly Cotts is more effective vs RH than Adkins.

NC vs RH 143AB 14RBI .231BA .329O .399S

JA vs RH 139AB 21RBI .288BA .327O .446S

 

That really helps Cotts cause because he's more effective vs RH's than Vizcaino.

Maybe most of his control problems are against LHers.

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  • 2 weeks later...

http://sabrsox.blogspot.com/2005/01/under-...ove-season.html

A good article related to Win Share projections for 2005.

The IN vs OUT in the lineup puts us at a +5 WS over 2004.

A lot of that is coming from Iggy though.

The IN vs OUT in the staff puts us at a +12 WS over 2004.

E-LO, worse than Adkins, & Jackson vs Duque, Herm, & Vizc.

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QUOTE(santo=dorf @ Feb 2, 2005 -> 05:15 PM)
Adkins pitched himslef into less trouble.  Cotts needs better control.  Like I said, once Adkins started pitching well Ozzie was marching him out there every night.  Don't forget that in September Politte went on the DL, Jackson was released, and Ozzie didn't have much faith in Diaz which led to both of them getting a lot more innings.

 

I remember Hawk talking about it on a broadcast;

Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing them both in the bullpen for 2005.

 

For as much flack as KW took for that Durham trade(he should take flack for it...he traded a 2Bman with an OBP of .390 at the trade deadline for a AAA reliever who had surgery and missed a year...he should still be getting s*** for that trade, because he could have gotten a lot more), Adkins is turning out to be quite good for us.

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