Marte/Harris for Castillo

[JUGGERNAUT]

This is a bad deal for the CWS even though we have fans here lobbying for this trade. Castillo comes at a price of 16M/3yr. Marte costs 4M/2yr or CWS options bringing it to 10M/4yr. Based on his performance of the # of games he did not give up a run that is a steal.

 

As I pointed out in an early thread you still have to replace Marte. Assuming you are going to replace him with equal quality that's going to cost you on avg 2-3M/yr. Thus driving the cost up to 19M/3yr. Forget it.

 

As someone pointed out in the MLB thread you are better off keeping Marte & offering more $ to Iguchi in the form of bonuses. If the rumor of 10M/3 is correct, then throw another 3M in bonus money at him to bring it up to 13M/3. That far exceeds what he can make in Japan & outbids any other MLB team.

 

After reading what Iguchi did in a pitcher's park in Japan he offers much greater upside to the CWS than Castillo does.

[Guest JimH]

Luis Castillo is major league proven, Iguchi is not.

 

I believe Iguchi to be a good gamble, and they don't have to give anything up to get him. But if Castillo is available and the price reasonable in terms of personnel, you do it.

[JUGGERNAUT]

Castillo R/RBI/gm:

Apr 15 in 92 ab

May 14 in 93 ab

Jun 13 in 100 ab

Jul 15 in 82 ab

Aug 10 in 84 ab

Sep 17 in 105 ab

Tot: 84 in 564 abs

 

He's a pretty consistent offensive player. Dye had 83 scoring games last year. But 16M/3yr + Marte at 10M/4yr? Castillo is a proven NL player.

Not a proven an AL one. Though I will say he did well vs AL teams @ AL parks (but it's a small sample).

 

I want to add that there is a big drop off between Marte & the rest in terms of scorless appearances & successful outings. That includes Politte, Hermanson, Vizc, & Adkins. There is small drop off between Shingo & Marte in that respect.

 

Would MIN give up Rincon or Romero to make this trade? I don't think they would & I don't think the CWS should either.

 

Rincon, Romero, Nathan vs Shingo, Marte, & Politte give MIN the edge over the division right now. Making this trade is furthering that separation & hoping that Castillo can make up the difference.

 

All the good LH setup men have been taken so Marte is not easily replaced. Vizc did his work in the weaker NL. I hardly think that represents proven success in a much tougher AL. So if we lose Marte now we are going to battle 2005 without a player of his caliber. Probably someone close to Vizc caliber.

 

Find another way w/out using Marte.

[soxman352000]

As soon as you said whitesox.com MB I stopped reading.

Come on that is the most reliable info. on the net, Have they ever steered you wrong before.

[JUGGERNAUT]

Even the Sags suggest a bad trade here:

............................................ RPG DOL$ R H HR RBI SB W TB AB ONBASE OUTS CS SB*SB/SBA OPS

A 58 Castillo, Luis FLA B 5.07 18.2$ 91 164 2 47 21 75 196 564 240 404 4 17.64

 

58 out of 84 starters.

..................................................NPERA DOL$ IP ERA SO WN MOB SV RICKEY/9IP OPS

B 7 Takatsu, Shingo CHW R 2.01 16.5$ 62.1 2.31 50 6 9.10 19 7.12 .550

B 17 Marte, Damaso CHW L 2.89 12.9$ 73.2 3.42 68 6 11.36 6 5.95 .666

 

..............................................NPERA DOL$ IP ERA SO WN MOB SV RICKEY/9IP OPS

B 39 Vizcaino, Luis MIL R 3.34 7.5$ 72.0 3.75 63 4 10.75 1 6.13 .724

B 50 Hermanson, Dustin SFG R 3.67 9.0$ 131.0 4.53 102 6 12.44 17 3.57 .748

C 41 Politte, Cliff CHW R 3.55 -6.3$ 51.1 4.38 48 0 13.32 1 4.09 .755

 

That is simply to wide a separation from Marte to any of the other 3.

Anyone else you add at this point is likely going to be weaker than these 3.

I don't believe MIN would trade Romero to get Castillo & I don't think the CWS should trade Marte to get him either.

[JUGGERNAUT]

Some of you don't know what that means so let me help.

Among NL hitters w 450+ ab's, L Castillo ranked 58th out of 84.

Among AL relievers w 50+ ip, Shingo ranked 7th overall & Marte ranked 17th overall.

Among NL relievers w 50+ ip, Vizc ranked 39th & Hermanson ranked 50th.

Among AL relievers w < 50+ ip, Politte ranked 41st.

 

I refuse to give up the 17th best reliever in the AL for the 58th best first string player in the NL.

[Guest JimH]

Some of you don't know what that means so let me help.

Among NL hitters w 450+ ab's, L Castillo ranked 58th out of 84.

Among AL relievers w 50+ ip, Shingo ranked 7th overall & Marte ranked 17th overall.

Among NL relievers w 50+ ip, Vizc ranked 39th & Hermanson ranked 50th.

Among AL relievers w < 50+ ip, Politte ranked 41st.

 

I refuse to give up the 17th best reliever in the AL for the 58th best first string player in the NL.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Nice stats, good analysis. But like any analysis using stats, there are holes.

 

What about defense, for one? Castillo is an all star caliber 2B, another thing to consider is, how many of the hitters you mention walk more than they strike out like Castillo does?

 

Your points are well taken but they are certainly not the entire equation, just as any stat based argument.

 

BTW I like Marte a lot and would not like to see him traded. But there is a fair exchange for every player.

[quickman]

Nice stats, good analysis.  But like any analysis using stats, there are holes.

 

What about defense, for one?  Castillo is an all star caliber 2B, another thing to consider is, how many of the hitters you mention walk more than they strike out like Castillo does?

 

Your points are well taken but they are certainly not the entire equation, just as any stat based argument.

 

BTW I like Marte a lot and would not like to see him traded.  But there is a fair exchange for every player.

 

 

In addition Ozzie loves him lots of other teams like him. He probably gets along with his teamates, listens to coaches and works really hard. The sox hit alot of HR's last year, so what. Big deal. We are re-tooling. We need winners, gamers.

[Guest JimH]

gets along with his teamates, listens to coaches and works really hard.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

What a great concept, let's make this mandatory for all current and future White Sox players. Mark me down as a "yes".

[JUGGERNAUT]

Shingo Tot: 0r 47, 1r 6, 2r 4

Apr 0r 4, 1r 1, 2r 1

May 0r 11

Jun 0r 10, 1r 1

Jul 0r 6, 1r 1

Aug 0r 8, 1r 1, 2r 3

Sep 0r 9, 1r 2

 

Marte Tot: 0r 57, 1r 9, 2r 5, 3r 3

Apr 0r 6, 3r 1

May 0r 9, 1r 2, 2r 1

Jun 0r 11, 1r 1, 2r 1

Jul 0r 9, 1r 2, 2r 1, 3r 1

Aug 0r 13, 1r 2, 2r 1

Sep 0r 9, 1r 2, 3r 1, 2r 1

 

Marte had 3 very bad appearances out of 72 that inflated his era. Otherwise he pitched as good as Shingo.

[YASNY]

Shingo Tot: 0r 47, 1r 6, 2r 4

Apr 0r 4, 1r 1, 2r 1

May 0r 11

Jun 0r 10, 1r 1

Jul 0r 6, 1r 1

Aug 0r 8, 1r 1, 2r 3

Sep 0r 9, 1r 2

 

Marte  Tot: 0r 57, 1r 9, 2r 5, 3r 3

Apr 0r 6, 3r 1

May 0r 9, 1r 2, 2r 1

Jun 0r 11, 1r 1, 2r 1

Jul 0r 9, 1r 2, 2r 1, 3r 1

Aug 0r 13, 1r 2, 2r 1

Sep 0r 9, 1r 2, 3r 1, 2r 1

 

Marte had 3 very bad appearances out  of 72 that inflated his era. Otherwise he pitched as good as Shingo.

 

I find it curious that you are willing to overlook 3 bad appearances by Marte when it helps to prove your point. I'm guessing Marte made about 60 appearances, so that's 3 out 60. Now if you took Castillo's stats and threw out maybe his worst 8 or so games, then that would alter his stats positively as well. The only time I even consider just forgetting about a bad game is when a pitcher is left out on the mound just to burn innings even though everyone in the park knows he doesn't have his stuff. Example: Garland's 10 runs allowed game.

[AnthraxFan93]

In addition Ozzie loves him lots of other teams like him. He probably gets along with his teamates, listens to coaches and works really hard. The sox hit alot of HR's last year, so what. Big deal. We are re-tooling. We need winners, gamers.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You mean Ozzie likes this Kid!

[JUGGERNAUT]

I find it curious that you are willing to overlook 3 bad appearances by Marte when it helps to prove your point.  I'm guessing Marte made about 60 appearances, so that's 3 out 60. Now if you took Castillo's stats and threw out maybe his worst 8 or so games, then that would alter his stats positively as well.  The only time I even consider just forgetting about a bad game is when a pitcher is left out on the mound just to burn innings even though everyone in the park knows he doesn't have his stuff.  Example:  Garland's  10 runs allowed game.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

72 appearances. Not 60. More than any other RP on the CWS including Shingo.

Put it this way. And you are once again illustrating my point. If Castillo has 8 bad games the rest of the lineup may be able to over come that. It doesn't have the same effect that as to when an RP has 3 bad games. The other 3 guys: Politte, Hermanson, & Vizc had double digit bad games. About 4-5 times as many as Marte. Losing Marte & replacing him w a guy worse than those 3 will mean less wins for the CWS. It doesn't matter what Castillo does because it's many times harder for a team to come back when a RP blows it in the 8th or 9th. It's why setup & closer maybe the two most important roles on any team.

[JUGGERNAUT]

Castillo Close & Late 04: .306A. .358O, .353S, .711OPS

 

I do not think that is going to make up for the severe loss in quality with a pen made up of Shingo, Hermanson, Vizc, Politte, Adkins, & Cotts or someone of their ilk (save Shingo).

 

Take a look at how many bad appearances Herm, Vizc, Pol, Adk, & Cotts had & then get back to me on whether you still want to do this trade. I expect worse things out of Herm & Vizc. Not better. They will be facing much tougher AL lineups this year.

[JUGGERNAUT]

I like the Castillo trade even less now.

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?sh...iew=getlastpost

What that tells me is that Graff v LH, & Harris v RH is not that much of a drop off from Castillo v both. Even with Harris' bad numbers vs LH, he still projected to having scored a R or driving in an RBI in 79 games over 564 abs. Castillo had a rating of 84 gms in that category. Factor in Graffanino

playing against LH's & I think the impact is close to even.

 

Graff+Harris would cost the CWS 1.5M in 2004. Castillo would cost the CWS 16M/3yr + Marte + Harris.

[AnthraxFan93]

I like the Castillo trade even less now.

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?sh...iew=getlastpost

What that tells me is that Graff v LH, & Harris v RH is not that much of a drop off from Castillo v both.  Even with Harris' bad numbers vs LH, he still projected to having scored a R or driving in an RBI in 79 games over 564 abs.  Castillo had a rating of 84 gms in that category.  Factor in Graffanino

playing against LH's & I think the impact is close to even.

 

Graff+Harris would cost the CWS 1.5M in 2004.  Castillo would cost the CWS 16M/3yr + Marte + Harris.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

PLus the stabilty of a 2b and a number 2 hitter who can hit lefties...Kind of forgeting to factor that into the equation.

[beck72]

Here's an update:

 

From: jiminusrex2 Jan-18 5:42 pm

To: jwren8 unread (59 of 61)

 

36231.59 in reply to 36231.23

 

hey, thanks for the respect, and no offense taken. i'll eat the crow if it doesn't happen, and if it does, we'll all be so happy, we'll be popping champagne bottles instead!

 

like i said, my guy is usually pretty reliable, but he's not close enough to hear every word KW yaps into his cellphone. still, he's a heck of a lot closer than i am, so i'd say it's at least a possibility.

[Jabroni]

Here's an update:

 

  From:  jiminusrex2   Jan-18 5:42 pm 

To:  jwren8 unread  (59 of 61) 

 

  36231.59 in reply to 36231.23 

 

hey, thanks for the respect, and no offense taken. i'll eat the crow if it doesn't happen, and if it does, we'll all be so happy, we'll be popping champagne bottles instead!

 

like i said, my guy is usually pretty reliable, but he's not close enough to hear every word KW yaps into his cellphone. still, he's a heck of a lot closer than i am, so i'd say it's at least a possibility.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No offence, but why does anyone bother to repeat rumors from any MLB.com board? They are all filled with bogus rumors and lies. Stick with believable rumors like the ones from ESPN 1000, WSCR 670, Rotoworld.com, etc. I'd love for this trade rumor to be true but I have only seen it sourced from the WhiteSox.com message board.

[beck72]

No offence, but why does anyone bother to repeat rumors from any MLB.com board?  They are all filled with bogus rumors and lies.  Stick with believable rumors like the ones from ESPN 1000, WSCR 670, Rotoworld.com, etc.  I'd love for this trade rumor to be true but I have only seen it sourced from the WhiteSox.com message board.

 

If any "Joe Poster" put this on, normally I'd agree. But this is a long time poster who isn't the type to spread rumors. Sometimes people do know people on the inside. It may be the case here, it may not. I take this information with a grain of salt.

[YASNY]

72 appearances.  Not 60.  More than any other RP on the CWS including Shingo.

Put it this way.  And you are once again illustrating my point.  If Castillo has 8 bad games the rest of the lineup may be able to over come that.  It doesn't have the same effect that as to when an RP has 3 bad games.  The other 3 guys: Politte, Hermanson, & Vizc had double digit bad games.  About 4-5 times as many as Marte.  Losing Marte & replacing him w a guy worse than those 3 will mean less wins for the CWS.  It doesn't matter what Castillo does because it's many times harder for a team to come back when a RP blows it in the 8th or 9th.  It's why setup & closer maybe the two most important roles on any team.

 

 

The only thing that is being illustrated here is that you value an effective setup man over an all star caliber 2nd baseman. I disagree. Considering the Sox have reinforced the bullpen, and the fact that Castillo would fill our needs of a quality 2B and a quality number 2 hitter, I disagree even more. But that's the beauty of this board. We can have some fun talking about all this stuff.

[beck72]

The only thing that is being illustrated here is that you value an effective setup man over an all star caliber 2nd baseman.  I disagree.  Considering the Sox have reinforced the bullpen, and the fact that Castillo would fill our needs of a quality 2B and a quality number 2 hitter, I disagree even more.  But that's the beauty of this board.  We can have some fun talking about all this stuff. 

 

well said

[JUGGERNAUT]

Look at the numbers. All Castillo really adds is more consistent D & a better stick against LH than Harris. Against RH's they are pretty much even.

 

Our big disagreement is not really whether Castillo would help the Sox.

It's no question he's an upgrade over Harris. However; you value our so-called pen upgrade much more than I do.

 

I think with Hermanson & Vizc it's hit or miss. They could be good or they could get rocked. Vizc looks to be more shaky than Herm. The separation between these two & Marte is big. Much bigger than betw Castillo vs Harris.

 

It seems to me the Castillo trade will be an option for the CWS for some time this year. I'd rather wait & see how the new pen fares before giving up Marte.

[YASNY]

Look at the numbers.  All Castillo really adds is more consistent D & a better stick against LH than Harris.  Against RH's they are pretty much even. 

 

Our big disagreement is not really whether Castillo would help the Sox.

It's no question he's an upgrade over Harris.  However; you value our so-called pen upgrade much more than I do.

 

I think with Hermanson & Vizc it's hit or miss.  They could be good or they could get rocked.  Vizc looks to be more shaky than Herm.  The separation between these two & Marte is big.  Much bigger than betw Castillo vs Harris.

 

It seems to me the Castillo trade will be an option for the CWS for some time this year.  I'd rather wait & see how the new pen fares before giving up Marte.

 

Off course, you are going under the assumption that Marte will revert to his '03 form. It could be a case of the AL hitters getting familiar with Marte and '04 could be the beginning of a slide from very good to uninspiring mediocrity.

[Flash Tizzle]

Off course, you are going under the assumption that Marte will revert to his '03 form.  It could be a case of the AL hitters getting familiar with Marte and '04 could be the beginning of a slide from very good to uninspiring mediocrity.

 

And Shingo?

 

Or Hermanson, Vizcaino; how will the transfer of leagues effect their statistics?

 

IMO, the priority to upgrade 2B is not a necessity at this point. When mid-year approaches, and the usual bottom feeders are auctioning players, surely a solid 2B/RH utility player can be acquired. Will a pitcher of Marte's stature be available?

[JUGGERNAUT]

Compare Marte's 03 vs 04 appearances & it's really 3 bad gms out of 72 that inflated Marte's ERA in 04.

 

The other aspect of this trade is that since it means the Sox are picking up 16M/3 then I would think Castillo is not the only option. Rollins & Polanco deserve consideration as well. Especially Rollins.

Rollins was the 40th best hitter in the NL & a major catalyst for Philly wins.

Polanco was the 45th best. Castillo was 58th. In 03 Polanco was the 35th best. Since Philly one signed them both to 1 yr deals they might actually turn out to be better cost vs performance players.