Does Mel Kiper Jr. have a clue?

[VenomSox]

1 49ers--Alex Smith QB, Utah

2 Dolphins--Cedrick Benson RB, Texas

3 Browns--Aaron Rodgers QB, California

4 Bears--Ronnie Brown RB, Auburn

5 Bucs--Carnell Wiliams RB, Auburn

6 Titans--Adam Jones CB, West Virginia

7 Raiders--Dan Cody DE, Oklahoma

8 Cardinals--Travis Johnson DT, Flordia St.

9 Redskins--Braylon Edwards WR, Michigan

10 Lions--Heath Miller TE, Virginia

11 Cowboys--Shawne Merriman DE/OLB, Maryland

12 Chargers--Derrick Johnson OLB, Texas

13 Texans--Mike Williams WR, USC

14 Panthers--Jammal Brown OT, Oklahoma

15 Cheifs--Antrel Rolle CB, Miami

16 Saints--Thomas Davis OLB, Georgia

17 Bengals--Erasmus James DE, Wisconsin

18 Vikings--Shaun Cody DL, USC

19 Rams--David Pollack DE, Georgia

20 Cowboys--Troy Williamson WR, South Carolina

21 Jaguars-- Alex Barron OT, Florida St.

22 Ravens--Roddy White WR, UAB

23 Seahawks--Darryl Blackstock OLB, Virginia

24 Packers--Channing Crowder MLB, Flordia

25 Broncos--Matt Roth DE, Iowa

26 Jets--Carlos Rogers CB, Auburn

27 Falcons--Brandon Browner CB, Oregon St.

28 Chargers--Roscoe Parrish WR, Miami

29 Colts--Bryant McFadden CB, Flordia St.

30 Patriots--Justin Miller CB, Clemson

31 Eagles--Justin Tuck DE, Notre Dame

32 Steelers--Alex Smith TE, Stanford

[WHarris1]

Head in ass.

 

Not much else you can say.

 

The Bears will not draft a RB @ #4.

[qwerty]

Wtf?

[AddisonStSox]

Why not in the War Room?

[Palehosefan]

Mel knows his stuff about the players as well as anyone. What he doesnt know is the NFL teams choices for those positions. Generally his mock draft is about where the player SHOULD go, not where he really will go, its a glorified draft ranking made into a mock draft. There's no way of knowing right now who will focus on what exactly, outside of someone like San Fran and a QB etc.

 

Like say the Steelers and a TE in the 1st round, the Steelers do need a TE, but they wouldn't take a TE that early, they just don't use them enough in the passing game. But Alex Smith is around the 30-35th ranked player in the draft etc.

 

With that said, Pac Man Jones is too high, Derrick Johnson and Mike Williams are too low, and no way Justin Miller will be picked behind Bryant McFadden for CB's.

[southsider2k5]

Why not in the War Room?  

 

You're welcome

[Confederate_48]

I hope in his next chat he explains this

[AddisonStSox]

Mel knows his stuff about the players as well as anyone. What he doesnt know is the NFL teams choices for those positions. Generally his mock draft is about where the player SHOULD go, not where he really will go, its a glorified draft ranking made into a mock draft. There's no way of knowing right now who will focus on what exactly, outside of someone like San Fran and a QB etc.

 

Like say the Steelers and a TE in the 1st round, the Steelers do need a TE, but they wouldn't take a TE that early, they just don't use them enough in the passing game. But Alex Smith is around the 30-35th ranked player in the draft etc.

 

With that said, Pac Man Jones is too high, Derrick Johnson and Mike Williams are too low, and no way Justin Miller will be picked behind Bryant McFadden for CB's.

 

Excellet post! Top-notch!

 

Don't put too much stock into Kiper's mock drafts. The man is the best in the business in terms of evaluating talent and analyzing positions; however, his mock drafts (as previously mentioned) are all about player rankings and where guys (not really SHOULD) but COULD go.

 

That said, I do have issue with a few of his position rankings.

 

QB-Accurate

RB-Accurate (Nearly impossible to tell at this point)

WR-Debatable (Williams hasn't touched the football field for a year I suppose)

TE-Excellent

OLine-Accurate (Crapshoot until combines)

 

Now...here come the problems

 

CB-What!? First off, Rolle should be the first CB on the board. Second, a strong case could be made for Justin Miller at 2. After that, any combination of Jones, Rogers, Browner, McFadden is possible. Personally, I LOVE Rogers; this kid is going to be a shut-down corner in the NFL.

 

Derrick Johnson to the Chargers!? Mel, you have to be kidding me. Johnson is arguably the best player in the draft...gimme a break. He can easily be selected in the top 5.

 

DE-Accurate (I think Tuck should go higher, as should Pollack)

 

Thanks SS!

[LDF]

Excellet post!  Top-notch!

 

Don't put too much stock into Kiper's mock drafts.  The man is the best in the business in terms of evaluating talent and analyzing positions; however, his mock drafts (as previously mentioned) are all about player rankings and where guys (not really SHOULD) but COULD go. 

 

That said, I do have issue with a few of his position rankings.

 

QB-Accurate

RB-Accurate (Nearly impossible to tell at this point)

WR-Debatable (Williams hasn't touched the football field for a year I suppose)

TE-Excellent

OLine-Accurate (Crapshoot until combines)

 

Now...here come the problems

 

CB-What!? First off, Rolle should be the first CB on the board.  Second, a strong case could be made for Justin Miller at 2.  After that, any combination of Jones, Rogers, Browner, McFadden is possible.  Personally, I LOVE Rogers; this kid is going to be a shut-down corner in the NFL.

 

Derrick Johnson to the Chargers!?  Mel, you have to be kidding me.  Johnson is arguably the best player in the draft...gimme a break.  He can easily be selected in the top 5.

 

DE-Accurate (I think Tuck should go higher, as should Pollack)

 

Thanks SS!

 

if you look at all the draft and where mel made the selection, he has been a 50-50 crap shot.

 

then again, i think some of us can do as good if we had

1. the resources he has

2. get paid full time doing this and not have to worry about earning a living.

 

 

 

i think alot of us so called monday morning qb's can do a decent job as well.

[Gene Honda Civic]

http://lite.espn.go.com/mlb/columnist?id=1969422

[AddisonStSox]

http://lite.espn.go.com/mlb/columnist?id=1969422 

 

Oh my goodness...I don't know what's worse, his picks, or his reasoning.

 

Yikes. What's up Mel?

[jackie hayes]

Derrick Johnson to the Chargers!?  Mel, you have to be kidding me.  Johnson is arguably the best player in the draft...gimme a break.  He can easily be selected in the top 5.

Johnson is going too low in mock drafts b/c people don't see a fit, and they don't like guessing at trades. But I agree, even w/o a good fit he'll go higher.

[shakes]

Mel knows his stuff about the players as well as anyone. What he doesnt know is the NFL teams choices for those positions. Generally his mock draft is about where the player SHOULD go, not where he really will go, its a glorified draft ranking made into a mock draft. There's no way of knowing right now who will focus on what exactly, outside of someone like San Fran and a QB etc.

 

Like say the Steelers and a TE in the 1st round, the Steelers do need a TE, but they wouldn't take a TE that early, they just don't use them enough in the passing game. But Alex Smith is around the 30-35th ranked player in the draft etc.

 

With that said, Pac Man Jones is too high, Derrick Johnson and Mike Williams are too low, and no way Justin Miller will be picked behind Bryant McFadden for CB's.

 

I understand a lot of Mel's mock goes on where players should go, but under no circumstances will we ever see 3 RB's go in the first 5 picks.

 

With that said, if you watch Mel's board it will change drastically once the combines come and he starts talking to teams.

[Confederate_48]

From Mels chat today .....

 

Chico, CA: Will Mike Williams be available with the fourth overall pick? If not, Do you see them drafting DJ from Texas even though the needs are obviously on offense?

Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:11 PM ET ) I'd say the Bears have to go for a skill position player like a WR with speed like Braylon Edwards or a versatile RB like Ronnie Brown. OR, they could look to move off that pick. Chicago is a very viable team to move down. I think moving down and getting some extra choices would be beneficial to the Bears.

[CWSGuy406]

Johnson is going too low in mock drafts b/c people don't see a fit, and they don't like guessing at trades.  But I agree, even w/o a good fit he'll go higher.

 

I know a lot of people would think I'm crazy, but I'd definitely look at grabbing Johnson at the fourth pick.

 

People are talking Ray Lewis good with this kid -- I haven't watched him play enough, so I can't comment on that. But if that comparison is true, or even somewhat true -- wow... Briggs-Urlacher-Johnson, with Harris-Ogunlye-Brown up front -- I don't think anyone except the Pats could even touch that as far as a front seven...

[WilliamTell]

I don't agree with a lot of his predictions.

[ChWRoCk2]

Briggs-Urlacher-Johnson, with Harris-Ogunlye-Brown up front -- I don't think anyone except the Pats could even touch that as far as a front seven...

 

whos number seven? i see six

 

i think the bears would be better suited in a 3-4 defense, theyve always been a good team w/solid linebackers

 

Patriots steelers have had huge success, and the texans surely improved with it

[LDF]

I know a lot of people would think I'm crazy, but I'd definitely look at grabbing Johnson at the fourth pick.

 

People are talking Ray Lewis good with this kid -- I haven't watched him play enough, so I can't comment on that.  But if that comparison is true, or even somewhat true -- wow...  Briggs-Urlacher-Johnson, with Harris-Ogunlye-Brown up front -- I don't think anyone except the Pats could even touch that as far as a front seven...

look at the the super bowl team that chi had. what a tough front 4 and what a great group of linebackers they had.

 

you may have convince me in this.

[jackie hayes]

whos number seven? i see six

 

i think the bears would be better suited in a 3-4 defense, theyve always been a good team w/solid linebackers

 

Patriots steelers have had huge success, and the texans surely improved with it

That would require too many personnel changes. You have to build with one or the other in mind. (Eg, Ogun and Brown don't have the size you want in a 3-4.) Anyway, the defense was the side that was working this season, why change it?

[Gene Honda Civic]

http://lite.espn.go.com/mlb/columnist?id=1977411

[shakes]

I don't have ESPN insider, but it looks like Mel updated his mock draft. Does anyone have an update?

[Palehosefan]

He has the Bears taking Braylon Edwards of Michigan, said Edwards has the size, speed to dominate and he significantly cut down on the dropped balls/mental lapses this year.

 

He still has Derrick Johnson too low at 12 going to the Chargers.

He has my sleeper Troy Williamson WR up to 13 now.

Has Antrelle Rolle all the way down at 20 to the Cowboys

Has my Steelers taking Heath Miller the TE at 30.

Has Channing Crowder amazingly as the LAST pick in the 1st round.

[shakes]

He has the Bears taking Braylon Edwards of Michigan, said Edwards has the size, speed to dominate and significantly cut down on the dropped balls/mental lapses this year.

 

He still has Derrick Johnson too low at 12 going to the Chargers.

He has my sleeper Troy Williamson WR up to 13 now.

Has Antrelle Rolle all the way down at 20 to the Cowboys

Has my Steelers taking Heath Miller the TE at 30.

Has Channing Crowder amazingly as the LAST pick in the 1st round.

 

 

Thanks for the update.

 

I am hoping, it won't happen, that Miller would somehow slip to the Bears in the 2nd round.

[Kalapse]

Thanks for the update. 

 

I am hoping, it won't happen, that Miller would somehow slip to the Bears in the 2nd round.

I doubt he'll drop that far.