Iguchi's production

[BlackBetsy]

you may be right, i read as much as the next guy and i don't remember reading such a thing.

 

i will give way to you on this.

 

Baseball Prospectus did a pretty in depth analysis after 2001 and found that the Japanese leagues were half way in between AAA and MLB. If AAA is 85% of MLB, JPL are like 93-95%. So better than triple A, but worse than the major leagues.

 

Let's put it this way- if a 2B in the Sox organization hit .340/.400/.550 in AAA in a decent pitcher's park, Soxtalk.com posters would be all over KW to bring him to Chicago.

[gotoh00]

well i may not agree with your 40% assessment, since we are both not in the professional level of judging talent and grading the league. i will give way to you knowledge of baseball in japan.

 

if it is 40% then why wasn't this guy snatch up and courted by other teams????

Why did he have to settle for less than what he was asking for?

why isn't there more influx of those players this offseason?

 

i know i may coming across strong, but i am not in the thinking of this guy putting up good numbers. i will cheer for him and hope for the best. i love the move and if it pays off great. if not, i am still in the thinking that we had nothing to loose and all to gain in getting this guy here.

 

fyi ............... many who posted and predicted good numbers will turn on him if he fails. i will still be in his corner saying that the risk in getting him was a worthwhile risk. i just want him to be given a chance without any major expectations.

 

 

The reason Iguchi had to settle for less was because it is really difficult to tell how Japanese hitters will fair over here. Case in point, So Taguchi. But, the level of pitching is very high in Japan, so I'd say about 35 % of the pitchers there could get on any MLB 40-man roster easy. The reason we don't see more of an influx is that the Japanese league is doing everything it can to stop it. Players don't get free-agency until after 7 full seasons on a team so, with injuries, that equates to about 10 years they have to play over in Japan first. This means that many players are past their primes before they even have the chance to come to the majors. Also, many fans brand those players who do come here as "traitors" for abandoning their old teams and loyal fans. So, more often than not, Japanese players decide to remain in Japan out of fear of hurting everyone they know.

[ottawa_sox]

I have heard japanese baseball considered ''4a''.

 

Considering the length of time that the Japanese have displayed tremendous passion for baseball, it makes sense that their quality is high.

 

LDF Posted Today, 06:54 AM

why isn't there more influx of those players this offseason?

 

I'll bet there will be considerable more interest in the coming years.

[Gene Honda Civic]

The reason Iguchi had to settle for less was because it is really difficult to tell how Japanese hitters will fair over here.  Case in point, So Taguchi.  But, the level of pitching is very high in Japan, so I'd say about 35 % of the pitchers there could get on any MLB 40-man roster easy.  The reason we don't see more of an influx is that the Japanese league is doing everything it can to stop it.  Players don't get free-agency until after 7 full seasons on a team so, with injuries, that equates to about 10 years they have to play over in Japan first.  This means that many players are past their primes before they even have the chance to come to the majors.  Also, many fans brand those players who do come here as "traitors" for abandoning their old teams and loyal fans.  So, more often than not, Japanese players decide to remain in Japan out of fear of hurting everyone they know.

So Taguchi was never destined for greatness in Japan or America -- He posted a career line of .277/.333/.387 in Japan...(a .700 OPS isn't exactly what I'm looking for in a corner outfielder) --

 

That being said, I suppose you could use him as a example of how the Japanese game translates to the American one....

 

In his final two season in Japan, ST posted lines of

.279/.353/.389

.280/.343/.406 -- Remarkably simillar to his career line in the states of

.290/.339/.440 -- Only about 250 ABs

[beck72]

Baseball Prospectus did a pretty in depth analysis after 2001 and found that the Japanese leagues were half way in between AAA and MLB.  If AAA is 85% of MLB, JPL are like 93-95%.  So better than triple A, but worse than the major leagues.

 

Let's put it this way- if a 2B in the Sox organization hit .340/.400/.550 in AAA in a decent pitcher's park, Soxtalk.com posters would be all over KW to bring him to Chicago.

 

That puts some things in perpective. Good info

[AnthraxFan93]

i see .270-.300ba, .330-.370obp, 15-25hr's, 50-80rbi's, 20-40sb's

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

I kind of like these numbers.. I go with them

[RockRaines]

I am going to go with a slow start, but a strong finish like Matsui of the Yankees had his first year here. 

 

.270 15 HRs 60 RBIs 30 steals 80 runs scored

I think that is VERY realistic for sure

 

His power numbers arent going to be a good as we all think, but all he needs to do is get on base, and score some runs.

[103 mph screwball]

I'm expecting

Avg .268

OBP .335

HR 18

Rbi 54

SB 19

A few adjustment errors in the field.

 

Numbers aren't everything. I also expect him to confidently lay down the bunt to send SPod from his recently stolen 2b to 3b so Thomas can Sac Fly him home. I expect him to hit to the right side to move runners. I expect smart base running. I expect him to be a hard working fan favorite. I expect him to widen the Sox fan base in the far east. I expect him to make at least one commercial for Boyer. I expect him to be a nice guy of high moral character. I expect his presence on the team to increase attendance. I expect him to get better as the year goes on. I expect him to always put winning over his personal stats. And of course I'm expecting him to scream BANZI!!! as he steals home to clinch a World Series title for the Sox at Home.

[Jabroni]

Here's an ESPN.com article from November 29, 2004 on Japanese prospects (Iguchi included)...

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1926706

Tadahito Iguchi (Daiei Hawks):  A second baseman with tremendous speed.  He stole 42 bases in 2003 and it was his second stolen base title.  His fielding would also be above average.  However, he has been playing on artificial turf.  He could struggle on natural grass, just like Kaz Matsui did wth the Mets.

 

He has some power, but he will mainly be the type of player who hits between the gaps.  He cares about on-base percentage (his OBP for 2003 season was .438) more than hits and home runs, so he could transfer from the middle of the lineup to the leadoff spot.

 

His career batting average is .271 with 149 home runs and 507 RBI.  He's played for the Daiei Hawks for eight seasons.

[SoxFan1]

I expect:

 

.285 Avg, .347 OBP, 19 HR, 62 RBI, 27 SB

[aboz56]

No real way to predict Iguchi's stats, although I will go on record by saying that his numbers will be lower than most of the numbers being thrown around in this thread.

 

Just too difficult to compare Japan to the big leagues though, IMO.

 

And if by chance he does fairly well in the HR department, they'll mostly (80% or more) come at home.

[Gene Honda Civic]

Gleeman weighs in -- http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/coming-to-america/

 

Coming to America

by Aaron Gleeman

January 26, 2005

 

Last year around this time, Kaz Matsui coming over from Japan was a very big story. He was one of the offseason's most-hyped free agents, there were multiple teams bidding for his services, and published scouting reports touted his skills and accomplishments in Japan. The Mets ended up signing him to a three-year deal worth $20 million.

 

Fast forward now to this year. Another Japanese middle infielder with a fantastic resume has decided to see what he can do in America. In fact, Tadahito Iguchi's credentials are very similar to Matsui's. Matsui was a career .309/.361/.486 hitter in Japan; Iguchi was a career .271/.349/.471 hitter in Japan. Matsui was coming off two outstanding seasons in which he hit .332/.389/.619 and .305/.365/.549; Iguchi is coming off two outstanding seasons in which he hit .340/.438/.573 and .333/.394/.549. Matsui was a seven-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glove winner at shortstop; Iguchi was a four-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glove winner at second base.

 

Perhaps the similarities aren't exactly eerie, but they are certainly enough to make you wonder why Iguchi's free agency and subsequent signing with the White Sox went completely under the offseason radar. While the baseball world was getting daily updates on Matsui's status last offseason, I bet most fans didn't even know who Iguchi was until yesterday, let alone that he was a free agent. I am definitely guilty of that too, because I didn't even discuss Iguchi when I previewed the free agent second baseman earlier this offseason, mostly because I didn't even know he was a free agent. Now he's a member of the White Sox, signing a two-year deal with around $5 million, with Chicago holding a team option for a third season.

 

The obvious question now is what sort of production we can expect from Iguchi this season. In an effort to come up with an answer to the same question for Matsui last offseason, I did some very basic estimates based on the performances of past Japanese imports Ichiro!, Hideki Matsui, and Tsuyoshi Shinjo in their first American seasons. The end result was that I projected Matsui's 2004 numbers to be .275/.325/.445 and added that the projection was "subject to change, depending on which team he ends up signing with and which ballpark he ends up playing his home games in."

 

Well, Matsui ended up hitting .272/.331/.396 with the Mets, nearly exact matches for my batting average (.275) and on-base percentage (.325) projections for him, but off by 49 points in slugging percentage. Some of that can be explained by Shea Stadium hurting power numbers, but Matsui slugged just slightly better (.400) on the road than at home (.391). All things considered, it was a pretty good projection, but more importantly what Matsui's first U.S. season does is give us another data point for this year's projection for Iguchi.

 

Here is a look at how Ichiro!, Shinjo, and the Matsuis did in their first season in America, compared to their last season in Japan:

 

ICHIRO!                        AVG      OBP      SLG

Last season in Japan          .387     .460     .539

First season in U.S.          .350     .381     .457
 

HIDEKI MATSUI                  AVG      OBP      SLG

Last season in Japan          .334     .461     .692

First season in U.S.          .287     .353     .435
 

TSUYOSHI SHINJO                AVG      OBP      SLG

Last season in Japan          .278     .320     .491

First season in U.S.          .268     .320     .405
 

KAZ MATSUI                     AVG      OBP      SLG

Last season in Japan          .305     .368     .549

First season in U.S.          .272     .331     .396

 

There are all sorts of sample-size problems with the above data because it only includes four players and a total of eight seasons, plus it doesn't take into account what sort of ballparks they played in. Still, for some quick-and-dirty estimates, I think it does the trick pretty well (or at least it did last year with Matsui). Taking it one step further, here's a category-by-category breakdown of what each player gained or lost (by percentage) in their first season here:

 

               AVG        OBP        SLG       IsoP       IsoD

Ichiro!      - 9.6      -17.2      -15.2      -29.6      -57.5

H. Matsui    -14.1      -23.4      -37.1      -58.6      -48.0

Shinjo       - 3.6        0.0      -17.5      -35.7      + 2.4

K. Matsui    -10.8      -10.1      -27.9      -49.2      - 0.6

--------------------------------------------------------------

AVERAGE      - 9.5      -12.7      -24.4      -43.3      -25.9

 

On average, the four players lost the least production in batting average (-9.5%) and lost the most production in Isolated Power (-43.3%), which seems to match the common perception of what should and does happen when Japanese players come to the U.S. One important thing to consider when looking at the across-the-board drops in production is that the four players called Safeco Field, Yankee Stadium, Pac Bell/SBC Ballpark, and Shea Stadium home during their first U.S. seasons -- all ballparks that depress offense. Iguchi will play half his games at U.S. Cellular Field, which has been one of the friendliest places for hitting in the American League in recent years, and has been particularly good for hitting home runs.

 

If you take the average drops in each category for the four players listed above, apply them to Iguchi's numbers in Japan last season, and give him a little boost because of his new home ballpark, you get something like this:

 

                    YEAR      AVG      OBP      SLG     IsoP     IsoD

Tadahito Iguchi     2005     .300     .345     .425     .125     .045

 

Now, that projection is dependent on his 2004 season in Japan being something other than a career-year or a fluke, and it is also dependent on his 2005 season in the U.S. showing his "true" level of talent. So there is a lot that can go wrong, but I think that gives a pretty decent idea of what to expect from Iguchi this year.

 

Those projected numbers -- .300/.345/.425 with a .125 IsoP and a .045 IsoD -- would make Iguchi's 2005 season very similar to the years infielders Placido Polanco (.298/.345/.441, .143, .047) and Chone Figgins (.296/.350/.419, .123, .054) had in 2004. In other words, solid-but-unspectacular production that should provide a significant upgrade over Willie Harris, who has hit .240/.305/.296 in 823 big-league plate appearances and was slated to man second base for the White Sox before they signed Iguchi.

Edited January 26, 2005 by Gene Honda Civic

[DBAHO]

I saw Gleeman was going to do a big write up on Iguchi using some numbers. That certainly gives me more hope, after seeing that piece. It's interesting to see that power numbers for all 4 players have dropped in their 1st season over here, but Iguchi could change that trend, just because of the fact he'll be hitting half his games at the Cell.