Comparing the 2005 team

[southsider2k5]

I was trying to get a feel for this team by comparing them to another of the Sox teams that I have seen. I came to the conclusion that this team really resembles the 1983 team in a lot of ways. They have speed at the top of the order, thump in the middle of the order, great range on defense, and an entirely solid pitching staff.

 

Opinions? Any other better teams to compare these guys too? The early 80's is about as far back as I remember well.

[YASNY]

I was trying to get a feel for this team by comparing them to another of the Sox teams that I have seen.  I came to the conclusion that this team really resembles the 1983 team in a lot of ways.  They have speed at the top of the order, thump in the middle of the order, great range on defense, and an entirely solid pitching staff.

 

Opinions?  Any other better teams to compare these guys too?  The early 80's is about as far back as I remember well.

 

A 99 win team? Cool!!

[southsider2k5]

I made this post on my blog after reflecting a little longer.

 

http://boringtheworld.blogspot.com/2005/01...o-know-you.html

 

2005 will have at least 8 new faces on the Southside of Chicago. While trying to get a grip on the face of the team, I was trying to find a Sox team in history to compare them to.

 

1983 jumped right off the history books at me. 1983 featured Rudy Law and later on, Julio Cruz at the top of the line up giving the Sox two guys who could fly and handle the bat. The 2005 edition has 2004 leading basestealer Scott Podsednik and Japanese import Tadahito Iguchi giving the Sox 100 SB potential at the top of the order for the first time since 1983.

 

The middle of the 1983 line up featured some quality power hitters as well. Fisk, Kittle, Walker, "The Bull" Greg Luzinski and Harold Baines put fear into pitchers all over the AL. The 2005 Sox feature future Hall of Famer Frank Thomas, Carl Everett, Jermaine Dye, and AL HR runner up Paul Konerko making pitchers quake in their stirups.

 

They also have Uribe, A.J. Pierzynski, and Crede to shore up the bottom of the line up in 2005. The 83 team featured guys like Vance Law, Scott Fletcher and Jerry Dybzinski at the bottom of their line up.

 

Pitching was also a trademark of the Winning Ugly teams. Lamar Hoyt led the way as Cy Young, and was backed up by 20 game winner Rich Dotson, Floyd Bannister, Britt Burns, and Jerry Koosman on a staff that had no pitcher less that 169 innings that year. If it got to the pen, Dennis Lamp and Salome Barajas closed things out with a solid middle relief corps. The 2005 version of the Sox features cult hero Shingo Takatsu at the back of the pen, with Damaso Marte, Hermanson, Politte, Milwaukee aquisition Luis Vizcaino, and Neal Cotts doing the dirty work.

 

Range and defense were spectacular in 83 and shouldn't be any different in 05. The outfield features an Aaron Rowand who plays CF like he was born doing it, and LF Scott Podsednik who is a former CF himself. In RF Dye provides a Harold Baines like no range, cannon arm presence that had burned the Sox on more than one occasion. At Catcher field general A.J. Pierzynski, will provide a presence not seen since Pudge himself called games behind the plate. The infield will be solid with Crede, Uribe, and Iguchi providing great range and arms, and Paul Konerko digging out everything thrown at him.

 

All in all I can't wait for April 4th, 2005. This is going to be a fun season on the Southside of Chicago.

[Leonard Zelig]

I was trying to get a feel for this team by comparing them to another of the Sox teams that I have seen.  I came to the conclusion that this team really resembles the 1983 team in a lot of ways.  They have speed at the top of the order, thump in the middle of the order, great range on defense, and an entirely solid pitching staff.

 

Opinions?  Any other better teams to compare these guys too?  The early 80's is about as far back as I remember well.

 

 

Carlton Fisk batted 2nd on that team.

[southsider2k5]

Carlton Fisk batted 2nd on that team.

 

Even after Cruz got here? It has been a while and I was only 9 at the time.

[Leonard Zelig]

Even after Cruz got here?  It has been a while and I was only 9 at the time.

 

Yes, Cruz hit 9th, we also had Ron Kittle in left, not so much range.

[Texsox]

That's a great comparison. I believe consistency is going to be the defining factor in this season. What you pay for when you hire a superstar is consistency. By the season end you know A-Rods going to hit .300. Year to year will be pretty much consistent. The second tier has flashes of greatness, followed by periods of mediocrity.

 

Just like our power was inconsistent, speed on the basepaths is inconsistent if the players aren't getting on base.

[southsider2k5]

Yes, Cruz hit 9th, we also had Ron Kittle in left, not so much range.

 

That must be why I remember Cruz and Law together was hitting 9-1 back to back after the first at bat.

[Leonard Zelig]

I'm pretty sure Cruz scored the run to clinch the division(on a sac. fly by Baines?)

[YASNY]

Cruz scored it on a sac fly. Not sure who hit it, but Harold sounds right.

[southsider2k5]

I'm pretty sure Cruz scored the run to clinch the division(on a sac. fly by Baines?)

 

That I remember vividly. It was Juice on a sac fly.

[mreye]

cult hero Shingo Takatsu

 

I love it!

[The Critic]

Wow, this type of gushy rhapsody is usually sung AFTER a winning season....

I'm optimistic about this team's chances, but I ain't writin' no love songs just yet....

[knightni]

Kittle vs SPod - Kittle

R.Law vs Rowand - hard one to choose I'd say Law

Baines vs Dye - Baines

Luzinski vs Thomas - Thomas

V. Law vs Crede - Crede barely

Fletcher vs Uribe - Uribe

Cruz vs Iguchi - Cruz

Walker vs Konerko - Konerko

Fisk vs AJ - Fisk

 

Hoyt vs Buehrle - Hoyt

Bannister vs Garcia - Bannister

Dotson vs El Duke - Dotson

Burns vs Garland - Burns

Koosman vs Contreras - Koosman

 

Just my opinion, but the whole starting pitching of 1983 is superior to 2005.

[mreye]

Kittle vs SPod - Kittle

R.Law vs Rowand - hard one to choose I'd say Law

Baines vs Dye - Baines

Luzinski vs Thomas - Thomas

V. Law vs Crede - Crede barely

Fletcher vs Uribe - Uribe

Cruz vs Iguchi - Cruz

Walker vs Konerko - Konerko

Fisk vs AJ - Fisk

 

Hoyt vs Buehrle - Hoyt

Bannister vs Garcia - Bannister

Dotson vs El Duke - Dotson

Burns vs Garland - Burns

Koosman vs Contreras - Koosman

 

Just my opinion, but the whole starting pitching of 1983 is superior to 2005.

 

Why do you have to be such a bummer?

[JUGGERNAUT]

Kittle vs SPod - Kittle

R.Law vs Rowand - hard one to choose I'd say Law

Baines vs Dye - Baines

Luzinski vs Thomas - Thomas

V. Law vs Crede - Crede barely

Fletcher vs Uribe - Uribe

Cruz vs Iguchi - Cruz

Walker vs Konerko - Konerko

Fisk vs AJ - Fisk

 

Hoyt vs Buehrle - Hoyt

Bannister vs Garcia - Bannister

Dotson vs El Duke - Dotson

Burns vs Garland - Burns

Koosman vs Contreras - Koosman

 

Just my opinion, but the whole starting pitching of 1983 is superior to 2005.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

I was thinking the same thing when I started reading those names. You can carry that on with the pen as well. That was back when there were 2 divisions I think.

We don't need to be that good to win the division this year.

[JoshPR]

I was trying to get a feel for this team by comparing them to another of the Sox teams that I have seen.  I came to the conclusion that this team really resembles the 1983 team in a lot of ways.  They have speed at the top of the order, thump in the middle of the order, great range on defense, and an entirely solid pitching staff.

 

Opinions?  Any other better teams to compare these guys too?  The early 80's is about as far back as I remember well.

 

 

I think the 1983 weren't that good on defense. The rest is pretty acuarate. I think the 1983 staff was somewhat more solid tho.

 

I just hope this bunch doesn't do that bad in the playoffs

[JoshPR]

Cruz scored it on a sac fly.  Not sure who hit it, but Harold sounds right.

 

 

It was Baines. I remember watching the flashback vid. The place went nuts. It was against Texas

[YASNY]

It was Baines. I remember watching the flashback vid. The place went nuts. It was against Texas

 

 

Hmmmm ... I thought it was Seattle. Oh well.

[JoshPR]

Hmmmm ... I thought it was Seattle.  Oh well.

 

 

Seattle was in 1993 Yas. But Let me look it up, just to be sure

[JoshPR]

Seattle was in 1993 Yas. But Let me look it up, just to be sure 

 

Sorry Yas, You were Correct My Bad

 

That Saturday night the Sox waited out a rain delay and took a 3-1 lead into the 9th before the Mariners rallied to tie the game. In the bottom half, with almost 46 thousand on hand, Bill Caudill walked Cruz, Rudy Law and Fisk to load the bases. In came Ed Vande Berg to face Baines who hit a sacrifice fly to win the game and the title. Lorn Brown and Early Wynn were on hand. Courtesy: WMAQ radio.

[JoshPR]

Cool Page from WSI listen to some Memories for seasons past This one is from 1983

 

http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/rwas/in...gory=14&id=2321

[Rex Kickass]

making pitchers quake in their stirups.

 

Nobody wears stirrups anymore. Except for coaches anyway. And bank tellers. But those are stirrup stretch pants. Not socks.

[Gene Honda Civic]

Kittle vs SPod - Kittle

R.Law vs Rowand - hard one to choose I'd say Law

Baines vs Dye - Baines

Luzinski vs Thomas - Thomas

V. Law vs Crede - Crede barely

Fletcher vs Uribe - Uribe

Cruz vs Iguchi - Cruz

Walker vs Konerko - Konerko

Fisk vs AJ - Fisk

 

Hoyt vs Buehrle - Hoyt

Bannister vs Garcia - Bannister

Dotson vs El Duke - Dotson

Burns vs Garland - Burns

Koosman vs Contreras - Koosman

 

Just my opinion, but the whole starting pitching of 1983 is superior to 2005.

I completely disagree with the Hoyt v Buehrle comparison, so I thought I'd take a look at it more objectively ----

 

I'm going to take each players '83 season, and compare it to the established/expected level of play from our team (three year averages) using OPS+ and ERA+(which are expressions of production vs. league average corrected for park factor and year) These figures are the easiest things to use when comparing across generatons. (WARP3 would be another good choice, but as I'm writing this, I'm already halfway through the comparison)

 

Kittle vs SPod - Kittle -- No argument there -- Kittle wins 118 to an average of 94 for SPod

 

R.Law vs Rowand - Rowand -- 109 to 94 -- I used rowand's career line here(but I expect him to perform better than his career line this year)

 

Law added 70+ SBs in 83, so it would probably be better to compare Law v. Spod and Rowand v. Kittle, at which point it's very even. Law and Spod are a draw. Kittle v. Rowand -- Kittle posted a 118 OPS+ in 83 to Rowand's 126 in '04. Assuming Rowand slips a little from last years performace, I'd expect his OPS+ to be right about 115 or so -- It's a draw on these two spots.

 

Baines vs Dye - Baines -- Baines is clearly a better player than Dye, but he didn't exactly have a great year in '83, OPS+ of 109. Dye has put up seasons of 109, 105, and 103 his last three healthy seasons. If Dye has a good year he could easily eclipse Baines 83 season, but he hasn't had a season like that since 2000.

 

Luzinski vs Thomas - Thomas -- Duh, Franks headed to the HOF. HIs three year OPS+ is about 140. Luzinski's '83 was 129(which incedently is about what I expect from frank when he gets back.) Frank gets the nod based on career performance.

 

V. Law vs Crede - Crede -- Law's '83 OPS+ was 83, better than Crede's '04 mark of 79, but Crede's career mark is 89 and 3-year is just above 90. I expect joe to rebound to at least '03 levels and near league average production.

 

Fletcher vs Uribe - Uribe -- Seems like the Sox are always searching for a SS Fletcher/Dybzinski occupied the SS spot in 83, and niether did anything offensively. Uribe has a career OPS+ of 81. Fletcher/Dybzinski slit time with marks of 86/56. Uribe was a career best 107 in '04, and though I expect a small slide, I don't see him regressing back to his career average.

 

Cruz vs Iguchi - Iggy -- Using the best/most conservative projection for Iggy(.281/.348/.427) I project him to have about a league average OPS+ (high 90's, good for a 2B) The Cruz/Bernazard platoon was 70/84, a clear advantage to Iguchi.

 

Wimpy vs Konerko - I changed this comparison to Wimpy because he had more AB's (about half at 1B) -- Wimpy had an OPS+ of 118. Konerko was 123 last season, and has a career mark of 111. Taking out his '03, Kong has been a very consistant 120 or so. I'm gonna call this one a draw, as an OPS+ of 118 from kongs would be great next year.

 

Fisk vs AJ - Fisk -- One's in the hall, the other is not -- this one is easy. Fisk was an amazing 134 in 83 (that would be like getting Frank's production from the catchers spot) Pierz is a good offensive catcher, but he's not HOF caliber, career mark of 100. I expect him to put up something very close (but just below, because I don't see him benefiting too much from USCF) to league average

 

Walker v. Jurassic -- Walker/Wimpy had a simillar role to that of what Carl's will be this season. IN 83, Walk had an OPS+ of 108. Carl was a terrible 85 last season, after being 124 the season before... I expect him to rebound to at least something very similar to the 108 mark Walker had in 83. Call it a draw, but I'm expecting more.

 

 

 

Hoyt vs Buehrle - Buehrle -- and it's not even close. Buehrle has a career ERA+ of 125 with his career low being 108. Hoyt's three best years 81-83 he posted ERA+s of 100, 114, and 115

 

Bannister vs Garcia - Draw -- Bannister is very Garcia-like. He has a couple very good years, followed by a couple average to below average years. A career 102 ERA+, but we're only comparing the '83 season, during which he was a 125. Freddy Garcia was 121 last season, and has a career mark of 114. I expect him to be right at his career mark. Amending from a draw to a win for Bannister since we're only comparing one year, and I'd be very surprised to se FG top 125. -- Bannister

 

Dotson vs El Duke - Dotson -- Dotson was amazin in 83 with an ERA+ of 130. El Duque can match that for small stretches (evidenced by his 136 in '04) but He's not going to chew up the innings that Dotson did in '83

 

Burns vs Garland - Burns -- Garland is a league average pitcher, Burns was above league average in every year but one. Burns posted an ERA+ of 117 in 83, Garland would need an ERA about 4.35-4.45 to match that mark, a little out of his range.

 

Koosman vs Contreras - Contreras -- Contreras has a career ERA+ of 95 in the states. In Koosman's 83 season he posted an 88 ERA+. Contreras was 85 almost exclusively from the rotation. I expect a maddening just below league average performace this season around his career average of 95. Screw it, I don't know what to expect DRAW

 

05 staff as a whole -- I view our staff as this -- 3 stud pitchers, a league average pitcher, and a replacement level starter.

 

The three Studs are Buehrle, Garcia, and a two headed monster of the good Contreras starts and the starts that hernandez can make. That third starer of Contreras/Hernandez should give you about 35 start of near all-star caliber starting pitching. Garland is Garland, an average starter at 4th. And the combination of Bizzaro-Contreras and the Diaz/Grilli/Cotts gives us the maddening 7+ ERA from the 5 spot. It's still an improvement over previos seasons, but the key will be 1) how many starts can Hernandez make and 2) how many starts do we get the Bizzaro-Contreras.

 

-------------

 

Overall the '05 team has a better offense(even park corrected), but the rotation would need career years from a lot of people to match the '83 staff.

 

It should be noted that the 83 team outperformed thier Pythagorean record by 3 games, a not insignificant margin(though they were probably aided by a terrible AL west that year) Even though it looks like the the 05 team has more guys than you'd think comparing well to the 83 team, I can assure you that the level of competition they face in the "worst division in baseball" is better than what the 83 team had to face.

 

This was really fun to look back at the 83 team, I have almost no memories of that season. (I was 4)

[Gene Honda Civic]

Yesterday I had a good time comparing these two team using OPS+ and ERA+. It may not be interesting to anyone but me and maybe knight(who initially brought this up, I think), but I was gonna to it for myself anyway, so. Today I thought I'd try to compare them using WARP3. WARP3, unlike ERA and OPS, is a counting stat, so I'm going to match some guys up a little differently to try an match playing time more accurately.(I know I can't predict future PT, but I can make soe pretty good educated guess as to who will be playing where, and how much)

 

WARP3 is an all inclusive stat, that factors in defense, and such things as SB. It's corrected for park and time.

 

R.Law vs SPod - Law '83 WARP = 5.6, Spod avg WARP = 5.15. If Spod approaches his 2003 production it's adv '05, but if he's anything like he was in the minors it's adv '83.

 

Kittle vs Rowand - Kittle '83 WARP = 4.5, Rowand '04 WARP = 6.7. I expect a small slide from Rowand here, but I would still expect this to be "win" for Rowand.

 

As with yesterday, if you look at these two spots(CF/LF) as a whole, it's very even.

 

Baines vs Dye - Baines '83 WARP = 5.5, Dye avg WARP = 3.5 -- Clear win for Baines. Dye would need to approach his 1999/2000 production(8.4 and 7.5, respectively) to top Baines using this metric

 

Luzinski vs Thomas - Luzinski '83 WARP = 4.9, Frank avg WARP = 5.1. I used frank's last three years, he missed much of last year, so I figure that averages to about 3/4 of his expected production for a full season, which seems like a reasonable projection for next year. Very even, but if GLoad/Everett is playing at all above replacement level in his absense, the DH spot becomes a win for the '05 team.

 

V. Law vs Crede - Law '83 WARP = 2.9, Crede avg WARP = 3.1. I expect a modest improvement from Crede. adv. '05.

 

Fletcher/DYBZINSKI vs Uribe - '83 platoon WARP = (3.0 + .8) 3.8, Uribe '04 WARP = 6.4. I expect a small slide for Juan, but he's still a clear upgrade over the '83 squad. His three year average(4.3), which I expect his to beat easily, is still higher than the '83 tandem.

 

Cruz/Bernazard vs Iguchi - '83 platoon WARP = (2.3 + 1.5) 3.8. There's obviously no WARP data for Iggy, so I thought I would use the rather unscientific approach of using Kaz Matsui's WARP from last year (which is also not available...Grrrr) Willie Harris was 3.0 in WARP last year. Assuming Iggy is at least as sound as WH in the defensive and running game, I wouldn't hesitate to add a couple wins for his incresed offensive prowess. Put it in the win column for the '05 squad, but it could just as easily be a win for '83 if Iggy flops. (I know nobody's actually reading this, so I'm just gonna throw some wild s*** in here.) 27% of all male college students believe that life is "a meaningless existential hell"

 

Wimpy vs Konerko - Wimpy '83 WARP = 4.4, Konerko avg WARP = 4.76. Slight edge to Kong, as long as he doesn't have a dismal '03like performance.

 

Fisk vs AJ - Fisk '83 WARP = 8.0(WOW), AJ avg WARP = 6.1. I'm surprised how close this one is, I would have thought it would have been a slaughter, but AJ actually posted a 8.1 mark in '03(where he was rated excelent both offensively and defensively) I don't think AJ will ever approach his career year again, but get 6 WARP out of the C spot would be great for this team.

 

***WARP is a position specific stat, so one of Rowand and Pod who both have played almost exclusively CF, would lose a little value shifting to the more offensive position of LF.

 

 

Hoyt vs Buehrle - Hoyt '83 WARP = 7.0, Buehrle's 04 WARP was 7.8, which is incedentaly his career average. Slight edge to Buehrle

 

Bannister vs Garcia - Bannister '83 WARP = 6.1, Garcia's 04 was 7.6. I don't know what to expect from FG with a full season in USCF. His career avg is about 6.5(using prorated IP, 200/season). It's pretty close to a draw here.

 

Dotson vs El Duke - Dotson '83 WARP = 7.9, El Duque is never gonna approach that. He just won't get enough innings to be that good.

 

Burns vs Garland - Burns '83 WARP = 3.9, Garland's avg WARP = 4.9. I must say I'm confused by this ranking. Burns was a clear winner in ERA+. I'm thinking that WARP may not be a great measure for pitchers. This one's just screwy an unexpected. I don't know what to make of it. I'm gonna ad PRAA(pitching runs saved above average to all of these comps) PRAA Burns=6, Garland =0 -- you didn't read this far so here's more useless crap -- 1961 was the most recent year that could be written both upside-down and rightside-up and be read the same. The next year this happens is 6009

 

Koosman vs Contreras - Koosman '83 WARP = 2.3, Contreras = no data -- I would think that he could put up a warp of 2.3 rather easily with his occasionally dominant stuff, so long as he played near replacement level the rest of the time.

 

Just another way to look at this comparison. Thought I'd share.