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MLB.com AL Central pre-season predictions


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QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Feb 2, 2005 -> 06:58 PM)
Sauerback has as much chance as regaining his old form as Marte does his dominance vs RH.  Right now based on '04 you have to give the nod to Vizcaino over Sauernack.

 

MM vs CP: Why is it that we can always expect SOX stars to digress but never other teams?  MM has 59IP in his career.  He has as much chance of repeating his '04 numbers as CP has in improving.  Maybe a slight edge at best.

 

At least you agree CLE has nothing to compare to Shingo & Marte.

Now I just need you to accept that Vizcaino & Hermanson edge out CLE 3-4 guys.

I'll accept their 5-6 are substantially better than the Sox.

 

But here's the thing.  What matters most in any pen are your front 4.

The top 2 see the most work & the bottom 2 are the hold guys.

Min has a decisive adv over the Sox in 1-4.  That makes them the fav to win the div.

But Cle is behind the Sox in 1-4.

The 5-6 guys are used mostly for mop up duty.  They don't factor nearly as much in the money stats (wins, saves, holds).

 

Shingo's a crafty veteran closer & I'm sure he'll adjust to maintain his edge.

 

Sauerback cannot regain his form why? Marte cannot be insanely dominant against righties again why?:huh: Oh and you are not gonna our 3-4 pitchers in the pen are better than theirs.

 

But do not answer that. Just save this thread and we will check up on it at the all-star break and at the end of the year.

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QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Feb 2, 2005 -> 09:12 PM)
Qwerty, I don't see why you're so confident in Sauerbeck...

 

He's had two really good seasons, two alright seasons, and two really bad seasons.  It's really a coinflip as to whether or not he's effective this year, IMHO...

 

He won't necessarily be great, but he should, at the very least, be solid for Cleveland this year as a LOOGY.

 

He is one of about 15(or so it seems) Indians players that is a low-risk, high-reward type player. Boone, Rhodes, Juan Gone(hate you qwerty :P ), Sauerbeck, Shuey...and if you count last year too, you can also include Belliard, Howry, and probably others too.

 

If he's a bum...they release him. If he's solid, they have a steal. Those are great situations to put your team in. An example of a very poor situation to put your team is to look at trading for Jose Contreras...he is our #4/#5 starter for $6 mill...if he doesn't put up respectable numbers, that quickly becomes a terrible move for the Sox.

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QUOTE(witesoxfan @ Feb 3, 2005 -> 04:16 PM)
He won't necessarily be great, but he should, at the very least, be solid for Cleveland this year as a LOOGY. 

 

He is one of about 15(or so it seems) Indians players that is a low-risk, high-reward type player.  Boone, Rhodes, Juan Gone(hate you qwerty  :P ), Sauerbeck, Shuey...and if you count last year too, you can also include Belliard, Howry, and probably others too. 

 

If he's a bum...they release him.  If he's solid, they have a steal.  Those are great situations to put your team in.  An example of a very poor situation to put your team is to look at trading for Jose Contreras...he is our #4/#5 starter for $6 mill...if he doesn't put up respectable numbers, that quickly becomes a terrible move for the Sox.

Realistically if Contreras was a free agent this off-season, with the inflated pitching market, do you think he would gotten more or less than the $6 million he is making now? You could make a case, that he's better than other pitchers that got bigger deals than he did.

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QUOTE(witesoxfan @ Feb 3, 2005 -> 05:12 PM)
Paul Byrd got a 1-year, $5 mill deal from Anaheim. 

 

Byrd > Contreras

That's probably because of the arm surgery factor, but Byrd's also an extreme flyball pitcher. What about Kris Benson getting $22 million over 3 years or Derek Lowe getting $36 million over 4 years?

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QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Feb 3, 2005 -> 12:47 AM)
That's probably because of the arm surgery factor, but Byrd's also an extreme flyball pitcher. What about Kris Benson getting $22 million over 3 years or Derek Lowe getting $36 million over 4 years?

 

Benson got that to set the market and screw the yankees. But that was a stupid move on the mets part since you cannot really screw the yankees when it comes to money now can you?

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Benson actually put together a half decent season. 12-12 4.31 ERA 1.31 WHIP, K/9 of about 6, K/BB of just over 2. The fact that he pitched in the NL has to be taken in, so a jump in ERA would be expected.

 

He is not a $7 mill pitcher...but then again, Contreras isn't a $6 mill pitcher.

 

If I had the choice between taking Benson or Contreras...I'd probably choose the noose. ;)

 

Most of the money Lowe got was because he had an excellent postseason, and because he has the best agent in professional sports in Scott Boras.

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I agree let's defer the CLE pen debate until mid-season. You obviously feel a deep need to look at CLE as the glass 1/2 full & the SOX as the glass 1/2 empty. Maybe in regards to lady luck you're not wrong.

 

But right now based on what they did in 04 & their health I will take the SOX 1-4 pen over CLE's. At mid-season we'll look at the $ stats: saves, wins, holds, & losses. Injuries are a part of the game so no exceptions.

 

Byrd's health didn't hold up in 04.

B 51 Byrd, Paul ATL R 114.1IP 3.94ERA 79K 8W 11.34MOB .749OPS

A 30 Contreras, Jose CHW R 170.1IP 5.50ERA 150K 13W 13.63MOB .786OPS

 

Contra's walked 30 in 70IP in 03, & 84 in 170IP in 04. Compare that to Mark's 51 in 245IP. Can Contra cut is walks in 1/2 in 05? If he does that he'll be worth the 6M. That's the challenge ahead for the SOX.

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QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Feb 3, 2005 -> 12:08 PM)
I agree let's defer the CLE pen debate until mid-season.  You obviously feel a deep need to look at CLE as the glass 1/2 full & the SOX as the glass 1/2 empty.  Maybe in regards to lady luck you're not wrong.

 

But right now based on what they did in 04 & their health I will take the SOX 1-4 pen over CLE's.  At mid-season we'll look at the $ stats: saves, wins, holds, & losses.  Injuries are a part of the game so no exceptions.

 

Byrd's health didn't hold up in 04. 

B  51  Byrd, Paul          ATL R  114.1IP  3.94ERA 79K 8W 11.34MOB  .749OPS

A  30  Contreras, Jose  CHW R  170.1IP  5.50ERA  150K  13W  13.63MOB .786OPS

 

Contra's walked 30 in 70IP in 03, & 84 in 170IP in 04.  Compare that to Mark's 51 in 245IP. Can Contra cut is walks in 1/2 in 05?  If he does that he'll be worth the 6M.  That's the challenge ahead for the SOX.

 

Byrd was healthy once he got back and never missed a start once he got back. Also, ''lady luck''? Get outta here.

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Lady luck has not been kind to the Sox. Do you disagree?

How many impact players have been on the DL for the Sox in the past 4 yrs?

Eldred, Wells, E-Lo, Thomas, Maggs, etc.

 

So as optimistic as I am about the 05 Sox I can't deny that lady luck's evil sister seems to like them more.

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QUOTE(YoungstownIndians @ Feb 3, 2005 -> 06:14 PM)
1st of all no doubt is the Indians Offense better than the Sox's.....

 

Rotation Sox is better on paper.

 

Bullpen is even now. We both suck!

 

 

Yet I won't cringe when we turn over the game to our bullpen. Can you say the same?

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Wait, how do they assume Willie Harris will be the starting 2B. Why in the world would they pay a guy 2.3 mil to ride the bench????? This isn't the yankees.

 

I'm so tired of hearing how much the Sox lost without any recognition of how much they actually gained. Forget the critics. Let them worry about more important things like sammy's boom box now being in Baltimore.

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Yeah I think we can all say we fell shaky when our pens come into play. Our rotations are really solid.

 

Its just the matter of the offense and pen. You guys got the edge on pitching. We got the edge on hittin.

 

That makes it so tough to decide!!!!

 

and to witesoxfan or w/e...

 

260:-39 ISN'T A SCIENTIFIC POLL!

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QUOTE(YoungstownIndians @ Feb 3, 2005 -> 06:42 PM)
Yeah I think we can all say we fell shaky when our pens come into play. Our rotations are really solid.

 

Its just the matter of the offense and pen. You guys got the edge on pitching. We got the edge on hittin.

 

That makes it so tough to decide!!!!

 

and to witesoxfan or w/e...

 

260:-39 ISN'T A SCIENTIFIC POLL!

 

You have alot of members at your site.

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QUOTE(YoungstownIndians @ Feb 4, 2005 -> 12:42 AM)
Yeah I think we can all say we fell shaky when our pens come into play. Our rotations are really solid.

 

Its just the matter of the offense and pen. You guys got the edge on pitching. We got the edge on hittin.

 

That makes it so tough to decide!!!!

 

and to witesoxfan or w/e...

 

260:-39 ISN'T A SCIENTIFIC POLL!

 

If Buehrle goes seven innings, and the score is 3-2 White Sox -- and Ozzie has a choice of Vizcaino, Hermanson, and Marte for the eighth -- with a fresh Shingo in the ninth, you won't see a lot of nervousness from me. I haven't been as confident as I am in this bullpen since we had Gordon/Marte -- and even this bullpen is much, much deeper than that one...

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Same here with Howry and Wickman in the back end of ours. They were 90% lights out for the 70 games they were back there. Like 3 blown Saves.

 

Other than that a few other pesky people in the pen scare me. But we got the heat of 23 year old Jason Davis in there who reaches 101 m/p/h A lot!

 

Our offense too is just jam Packed! Listen to this force!

Spot In Lineup.....Average of Last Year.

1. COCO CRISP- .290

2. RONNIE BELLIARD- .285

3. BEN BROUSSARD- .260 AWFUL START... Picked up with some 3 game winning grand slams...

4. VICTOR MARTINEZ- .300

5. TRAVIS HAFNER- .310

6. JUAN GONZALEZ- If Healthy, He can be really good. One of the best at the Jake!

7. CASEY BLAKE- .270

8. AARON BOONE- Last we saw was the homer to Left.

9. JHONNY PERALTA- AAA MVP..... .340 AVG. in AAA Buffalo not that it means much. But Look at Victor Martinez!

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I agree with that it's tough to predict but I think you've been drinking way too much of the Indians kool-aid. When something is wrong with our team most of us Sox fans will b**** and complain until in changes (and if you want proof just look at some posts from before the off season heated up. Your pitching staff is no where near totally solid and a bullpen is not made by two guys. While I do think you guys have a great offense, and I don't buy into that everybody having a huge dropoff theory, I think that the pitching is going to end up being your downfall.

I'm looking forward to watching our teams compete and seeing who really is better.

May the best team win, and i'll just hope thats the Sox.

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