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MLB.com AL Central pre-season predictions


bjm676

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QUOTE(YoungstownIndians @ Feb 6, 2005 -> 12:40 AM)
I guarentee the Indians will finish above the SOX.

I was dead on the last TWO {2} YEARS!

 

We will. You gotta watch out for the Tigers!

So you predicted the Indians would finish behind the Sox last two years then?

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QUOTE(YoungstownIndians @ Feb 5, 2005 -> 03:27 PM)
Actully I did.

 

And I plea the first.

This is a website where I am GOING TO EXPRESS MY OPINION!

 

 

Actually you're quite a comic, Stick around you make me chuckle :bang

 

 

So much Bulls*** How many Rings have the indians won lately??? Hmm Yeah the same ammount as the Sox...

 

 

 

NONE!

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QUOTE(YoungstownIndians @ Feb 5, 2005 -> 09:27 AM)
Actully I did.

 

And I plea the first.

This is a website where I am GOING TO EXPRESS MY OPINION!

The problem is you're not doing it in a civilized manner, in addition to leaving out reason, grammar, and a spec of intelligence from your predictions. I don't mind a fan from a division rival posting here, but when his signature reads "Sox suck!", I become apathetic.

 

Your act was cute at first, but now very annoying. Too bad I don't have the power to ban you.

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QUOTE(YoungstownIndians @ Feb 5, 2005 -> 09:27 AM)
Actully I did.

 

And I plea the first.

This is a website where I am GOING TO EXPRESS MY OPINION!

First of all its plead not plea. 1st amendment gaurantees you freedom of speech which you are getting here, noone is silencing you. So unless you got your f***ing amendments mixed up you have no gripe.

 

Amendment I

 

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.

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QUOTE(YoungstownIndians @ Feb 5, 2005 -> 09:27 AM)
Actully I did.

 

And I plea the first.

This is a website where I am GOING TO EXPRESS MY OPINION!

 

 

I have no problem having a discussion with an Indians fan but if you want to stick around here you would do well to remember where you are and use a little more tact.

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For the CLE fans in this thread:

04 CLE: 94 SB. 117 SB vs. Did you do anything to improve that?

04 SOX: 78 SB. 90 SB vs. 05 Expectation: 150 SB, 90 SB

 

It so happens that MIN has lead in this category 4 straight yrs.

Not just in SB, but more importantly the differential.

 

http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/teams/stats/...ly?&_1:col_1=12

http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/teams/stats/...ly?&_1:col_1=12

http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/teams/roster/CLE

 

Would you agree that with the loss of Vizquel & Lawton you might be the slowest team in the ALC? Do you honestly believe that will not factor in your win totals?

 

We won't just be the fastest team in the ALC, we might be the fastest team in MLB. Seeing that you're not very good at protecting the base pads I think you should be the last team to think you'll beat the 05 Sox.

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QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Feb 6, 2005 -> 11:11 AM)
We won't just be the fastest team in the ALC, we might be the fastest team in MLB.  Seeing that you're not very good at protecting the base pads I think you should be the last team to think you'll beat the 05 Sox.

 

I know you said ''we might'' be the fastest team in the majors but we are not.

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http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/battin...Min=0&ageMax=99

Take a look at this list in terms of levels & playoff teams.

Lev 1: Hou(WC) + LA (DIV)

Lev 2: Atl (DIV) + NYY (DIV) + STL (DIV)

Lev 3: MIN (DIV) + BOS (WC)

Lev 4: OAK (DIV)

 

Roberts is actually split betw BOS & LA so BOS should probably be slotted in Lev 2.

 

Now I shouldn't have to tell you that in 05 the SOX expect to have

Lev 1: Pods

Lev 2: Iggy

Lev 3: Rowand

Lev 4: Uribe

 

I can't wait to see these 4 reek havoc on a tribe pitching staff that gave up a division leading 117 SB's last year. :D

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Now I shouldn't have to tell you that in 05 the SOX expect to have

Lev 1: Pods

Lev 2: Iggy

Lev 3: Rowand

Lev 4: Uribe

 

Lev 1: Pods

And let's hope he stays healthy, or that he more resembles Kenny Lofton than Brian Hunter.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SB_leagues.shtml

 

Lev 2: Iggy

Iggy what? What are you expecting exactly, his 40 in in the Pacific League 2 yrs ago or the 19 he's replacing? And if it's the 19 he's replacing then how does that make us faster?

 

Lev 3: Rowand

Arow is my guy and I'm his biggest fan here but he had 17 SB in 487 AB's and 0 SB in the 459 AB's before that. I'd say 12-15 SB is a realistic expectation which is makes him fast on a slow team.

 

Lev 4: Uribe

Uribe? Uribe? He's had SB of 3, 9, 7, and 9. And his 9 last season was 9 for 20, that's 45% 9 for fricken 20.

 

And after that? Scary, esp. with Lee's 11, Jose's 8, Olivo's 5 already gone, and Willie's 19 that at best will be warming the bench and more than likely will also be gone. Without SPods we'll might be lucky to break 50 SB and even with him we might not break 100.

 

100 SB would put us 6th in the AL last yr and 12th in the majors.

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QUOTE(upnorthsox @ Feb 6, 2005 -> 04:18 PM)
Lev 3: Rowand

Arow is my guy and I'm his biggest fan here but he had 17 SB in 487 AB's and 0 SB in the 459 AB's before that. I'd say 12-15 SB is a realistic expectation which is makes him fast on a slow team.

Arow will be working with Raines and Pods this year which should help him. Also on AM 1000 Rowand said he is going to steal 30... take it fwiw.

 

Why do you say Pods will be lucky to break fifty. I am going to say he will probably have a higher obp than in 04. He is a very smart base stealer with great speed and ozzie said he is going to be VERY aggressive on the basepaths this season.

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QUOTE(YoungstownIndians @ Feb 5, 2005 -> 09:27 AM)
Actully I did.

 

And I plea the first.

This is a website where I am GOING TO EXPRESS MY OPINION!

 

Sure you can express your opinion all you want... until it annoys me enough to make me ban you.

 

Here is the deal.

 

First and foremost this is a White Sox fan site. It is by no stretch of the imagination a ML forum for fans of all teams. It also isn't a place that will be spammed for other forums by newbie nonSox fans. We have certian standards here, and two things we will not stand for are trolls and spammers. (well except for me). Respectful fans of other teams we don't mind. Problem causers will have a problem here.

 

Your choices are simple, if you can engage in respectful conversation with us, you can stay. If not, you can go. If you have any problems with that feel free to send me a private message and we can discuss it until your heart is content.

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Did you bother to look at the link?

 

Lev 1: Pods 32+ SB

Lev 2: Iggy 22+ SB

Lev 3: Rowand 19+ SB

Lev 4: Uribe 17+ SB

 

Now I will respond to your comments.

Have you bothered to read any fantasy baseball sites?

Pods: They are all indicating Pods is a must grab player because they expecting a much better year from him. 50-60SB is the floor for him.

 

Iggy: If you bothered to look at his stats there's a pattern there. When his shoulder flares up he's good for about 20 SB's. When he's healthy he's good for over 40. The

01 = 40+, 02 = 19-20 range, 03 = 40+, 04 = 19-20 range. That would suggest to me he's due for a 40+. But I will play it safe & put him down for 25-30 SB.

 

Rowand: If you bothered to look at his splits you can see a pace of 20-25 SB. All of the guys with speed on this team are going to be learning by watching Pods how to become better instinctive runners.

 

Uribe: He has enough speed to steal 17+ SB.

 

Barring injury, this team will easily lead the ALC in SB's.

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This is as good a place as any to put this. This link has Maggs' breakdown for all ALC parks. It provides a nice pic of dimensions of parks.

I've ranked them in order of being hitter friendly.

UC http://detroit.tigers.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/d...0044&statType=1

LF 330, LC 377, CF 400, RC 372, RF 335 - air flow give it edge over Kan.

Kan

http://detroit.tigers.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/d...0044&statType=1

LF 330, LC 375, CF 400, RC 375, RF 330

Cle http://detroit.tigers.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/d...0044&statType=1

LF 325, LC 370, CF 407, RC 375, RF 325

Min http://detroit.tigers.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/d...0044&statType=1

LF 343, LC 385, CF 408, RC 367, RF 327

Det http://detroit.tigers.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/d...0044&statType=1

LF 345, LC 370, CF 420, RC 365, RF 330

 

I never really noticed this before but one of the reasons we struggle so much @MIN & @DET is because it's brutal on RH's to hit a HR there.

Det's LC is listed at 370 but it's a sharply defined park. There's a very small part that is actually 345. The rest begins at 370 & increases steadily to 420. Min's Left side is not much better. That might also explain why their pen is so dominant. It can build a lot of confidence playing vs RH at home.

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Miller park is not as hitter friendly as some think.

http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb...5392&statType=1

344, 371, 400, 374, 345. The power alley's are good but the lines are deeper than most others. I slight advantage to RH over LH.

It's pretty easy though to move the lines in & make it a hitter's park.

If you look at Pods HR chart there are several borderline ones. Those are probably sure things at the Cell. Likewise some of his fly outs would clear the Cell walls as well.

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What's done is done. Maggs is a Tig. For at 05 at least.

How does this shape the ALC 05? Maggs has a 306A & 762OPS 3yr avg @ Comerica. The spacious OF will get him more hits & many RBI's but few HR's.

 

Is Det as close as Maggs says? You would be surprised.

Det vs Min 80R, 266A, 316O, 418S.

Min vs Det 88R, 272A, 337O, 455S

Det vs Min : -8R/19gm

 

Det vs Sox 104R, 252A, 341O, 465S

Sox vs Det 105R, 267A, 318O, 458S

Det vs Sox : -1R/19gm

 

Det vs Cle 136R, 288A, 363O, 507S

Cle vs Det 98R, 284A, 370O, 451S

Det vs Cle : +38R/19gm

 

Det vs KCR 108R, 301A, 354O, 497S

KCR vs Det 115R, 311A, 363O, 457S

Det vs KCR: -7R/19gm

 

It's no wonder there is optimism in the motor city now. With margins against their rivals being so slim the additions of Percival & Maggs can make the difference. If Maggs & Percival both remain healthy Detroits

as much a contender as Cle. Especially given their dominance of the tribe.

A 2R/gm cushion .. ouch!

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More team stats:

CL R/G, SV, H (Close & Late Runs/Gms, Saves, Holds) in 2004

090/108, 48, 48 Min

097/103, 35, 58 Det

113/100, 32, 55 Cle

075/094, 34, 57 SOX

094/086, 25, 48 Kcr

 

Percival 33SV, 5 BS

vs. L .218A .331O .396S

vs. R .244A .278O .349S

 

replaces Estaban Yan 7SV, 10BS, Walker 1SV, 6BS

That's a +11 in the BS category right there.

 

Now you add Maggs CL numbers to the mix:

.335A, .422O, .527S

 

So with Percival & Maggs they improve greatly in the Close & Late dept.

For a team that was 2nd in the ALC in that dept this is a major improvement. Could be the most improved team in the ALC if both remain healthy.

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