Power Outage

[Texsox]

I don't even think it's a case of Garland being a head case.  I think it's just a matter of maturity.  I believe he'll get to a "Pavano-like" status eventually.

 

If he finishes the season as our #5, I will be surprised and believe it is far more likely we won the division and 1-4 had great seasons.

 

My best guess now is he finished the season as our #3 or #4 with 16-17 wins against 10 loses. He's just now hitting his prime years.

[JUGGERNAUT]

My best guess now is he finished the season as our #3 or #4 with 16-17 wins against 10 loses. He's just now hitting his prime years.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Whoa! Those are lofty expectations. I'll be happy if he just keeps his L down to 10.

[YASNY]

If he finishes the season as our #5, I will be surprised and believe it is far more likely we won the division and 1-4 had great seasons.

 

My best guess now is he finished the season as our #3 or #4 with 16-17 wins against 10 loses. He's just now hitting his prime years.

 

I have similar expectations.

[sox-r-us]

Much has been made of our club record home runs and our power loss for this year.  I am wondering if we really might not suffer as much as many expect.

2004 homers lost      Lee 31  Valentin 30  Maggs 9  Borchard 9  Harris 2      Olivio 7  Davis 6 total  94

 

I included Borchard, Harris, and Davis though still on team I expect at bats to drop or vanish(Borchard).

 

2005 replacements

 

Pyrzinski as primary catcher I think can handle the 13 of Olivio/Davis

 

Podsednik and Iguchi (I don't want them swinging for fences)  I don't think a combined 15 is unreasonable.  That would nearly equal what Maggs, Borchard, and Harris provided.

 

That leaves 61 from Lee and Valentin.  Dye and Everett if both can remain healthy should reach a combined 40-50.  These are pretty realistic projection, I think.  Net loss is around 15-25.  Now I expect some of our regulars may not repeat their numbers of last year but I don't suddenly see us as a Go Go Sox team.  We still have pop. 

 

I have intentionally left out Frank.  74 games in 2004 with 18 hr and 434 OBP.  I think he can improve on the totals.  If he takes a while to get healthy and we only have him for the second half, no team in our division will add as big a presence to the lineup at the trading deadline.  When people talk about our power numbers last year they forget Frank and Maggs (our  mashers to most general public) only accounted for 27 homers.  I don't think 200 -220 is unreachable.

 

You cannot count Maggs as 9 since he was injured. We lost 30 HRs with Maggs. That is the correct way to analyze it.

[southsider2k5]

You cannot count Maggs as 9 since he was injured. We lost 30 HRs with Maggs. That is the correct way to analyze it.

 

Actually his analysis is spot on. We lost Maggs HRs from 2003 to 2004, not 2004 to 2005. Maggs loss will only be felt as what we aren't getting from his 2004 numbers. This year we won't even notice Maggs is gone, because we essentially lost him last year anyway.

[Texsox]

I have similar expectations.

Well crap then, he's screwed

[lvjeremylv]

Like Farnsworth he's a head case.

Oh, is that all that's wrong with him? :rolly

 

I'd rather have a player lacking some physical talents than a player who is a 100% mental midget.

[YASNY]

As far as power numbers go, I think we can figure a few more out of Crede and a somewhat significant increase from Everett.

[upnorthsox]

Actually his analysis is spot on.  We lost Maggs HRs from 2003 to 2004, not 2004 to 2005.  Maggs loss will only be felt as what we aren't getting from his 2004 numbers.  This year we won't even notice Maggs is gone, because we essentially lost him last year anyway.

 

So then our analysis for '04 to '05 should be that we finish 9 games back of the Twins?

[southsider2k5]

So then our analysis for '04 to '05 should be that we finish 9 games back of the Twins?

 

It wouldn't surprise me that's for sure....

[DBAHO]

As far as power numbers go, I think we can figure a few more out of Crede and a somewhat significant increase from Everett.

I wouldn't be at all surpised to see Everett get off to a real hot start like he did with the Rangers a few seasons ago. If that happens, it could be hard to get him out of the lineup, even when Thomas comes back.

[SuperSteve]

I wouldn't be at all surpised to see Everett get off to a real hot start like he did with the Rangers a few seasons ago. If that happens, it could be hard to get him out of the lineup, even when Thomas comes back.

If Everett is hitting and Frank is back, at first I could see Frank and him switching off days at DH til Frank is back truely to 100% and game ready, then see days off between the OFs and whoever is playing the worse. We have a very versatile OF, and I do think Carl is going to come out swinging.

[JUGGERNAUT]

QUOTE(upnorthsox @ Feb 10, 2005 -> 04:30 AM)

So then our analysis for '04 to '05 should be that we finish 9 games back of the Twins?

 

It wouldn't surprise me that's for sure....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

I refuse to accept that & it would surprise. I'm not saying will win more than the Twins but we should definitely be closer to them in wins this year. This belief that Mauer, Morteau, Cuddyear are all locks for being top 5 in their position is poppy cock fantasy spewed out by the likes of Gammons & friends.

[southsider2k5]

QUOTE(upnorthsox @ Feb 10, 2005 -> 04:30 AM)

So then our analysis for '04 to '05 should be that we finish 9 games back of the Twins?

I refuse to accept that & it would surprise.  I'm not saying will win more than the Twins but we should definitely be closer to them in wins this year.  This belief that Mauer, Morteau, Cuddyear are all locks for being top 5 in their position is poppy cock fantasy spewed out by the likes of Gammons & friends.

 

Crunch all of the numbers you want, but it comes down to this. The Twins constantly outproduced wins vs their "numbers". Every single stinking year the Twins wins way over what the pythag theory saids they should win, and the Sox always seem to find a way to underproduce it. When it happens once its a fluke. When it happens 4 years in a row it is a trend.

[JUGGERNAUT]

Crunch all of the numbers you want, but it comes down to this.  The Twins constantly outproduced wins vs their "numbers".  Every single stinking year the Twins wins way over what the pythag theory saids they should win, and the Sox always seem to find a way to underproduce it.  When it happens once its a fluke.  When it happens 4 years in a row it is a trend.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

To that I will add that one constant for most of those 4 yrs was Mient, Koskie, & Guzman & they are all gone. I just think it's a little presumptuous to think that such a loss will go without any significant drop in offense or MIF defense.

[qwerty]

To that I will add that one constant for most of those 4 yrs was Mient, Koskie, & Guzman & they are all gone.  I just think it's a little presumptuous to think that such a loss will go without any significant drop in offense or MIF defense.

 

Barlett looks like he will be an upgrade over guzman. Morneau also has a s*** load more potential than mient does or ever had. Cuddyer can hit 20 or so homeruns at third if he get 500 at-bats or more with a respectable average and obp. All in all they have not down graded as much offensively as some people think.

 

Here come the numbers i am guessing.

Edited February 10, 2005 by qwerty

[southsider2k5]

To that I will add that one constant for most of those 4 yrs was Mient, Koskie, & Guzman & they are all gone.  I just think it's a little presumptuous to think that such a loss will go without any significant drop in offense or MIF defense.

 

 

They also didn't have a Cy Young capable Santana those years either. He has matured and that will make a big difference. And the Sox have endured significant losses of their own superstars. Plus we all know how the Twins farm system produces. Thinking we are better than the Twins right now is delusional, and no manipulation of numbers is going to change that.

[Punch and Judy Garland]

This is the same team that lost Hawkins and Everyday Eddie and ended p with a BETTER bulpen. This really is the best organization in all of pro sports. Do do I hate them though. I don't think there's any way Jurassic keeps Frank out of the lineup. I don't think the guy in the owners box would let that happen. I think you'd see more like a rotation with Konerko, Rowand, Thomas, Dye, and Jurassic. That's partly why I think Scott plays a smidge more center than people would probably think

[JUGGERNAUT]

They also didn't have a Cy Young capable Santana those years either.  He has matured and that will make a big difference.  And the Sox have endured significant losses of their own superstars.  Plus we all know how the Twins farm system produces.  Thinking we are better than the Twins right now is delusional, and no manipulation of numbers is going to change that.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

I never said we were better. I pick the Twins to win the division on the strength of their pen. But I don't believe we will finish 9 gms back either. I see the Twins as a low 90's W team & ourselves as a high 80's W team. But with a little luck & maybe some players realizing their potential (Garland, Crede) I believe winning the division is not out of the question.

 

If Jurassic is doing well in the 1st half he'll become #2 on the depth chart to spell Dye & maybe allow Frank to come back more gradually. I see Gload primarily as insurance vs Pods in LF & as a late game PR replacement for Koney. I think it's going to happen much more often because the lop-sided scores & HR production will be down having lost Maggs & Lee.

[southsider2k5]

I never said we were better.  I pick the Twins to win the division on the strength of their pen.  But I don't believe we will finish 9 gms back either.  I see the Twins as a  low 90's W team & ourselves as a high 80's W team.  But with a little luck & maybe some players realizing their potential (Garland, Crede) I believe winning the division is not out of the question.

 

If Jurassic is doing well in the 1st half he'll become #2 on the depth chart to spell Dye & maybe allow Frank to come back more gradually.  I see Gload primarily as insurance vs Pods in LF & as a late game PR replacement for Koney.  I think it's going to happen much more often because the lop-sided scores & HR production will be down having lost Maggs & Lee.

 

So with pythag theory, it is easy to see how it could be a 9 game swing even by your logic... If the Twins are 3 games better on paper, Sox under preform by their usual couple of games, and the Twins overpreform by their usual 4 or 5 games, there is your nine games...