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More baserunners this season??


Texsox

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So we are going to have more baserunners?

 

obp last season:

 

Lee .366 vs. Pods .343

Maggs .351 vs. Dye .334

Burke .386 vs. AJ .319

Jose .287 vs. Iguchi?

 

So why will we all of a sudden have more baserunners? I must be missing something.

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We'll have more baserunners at the top of the order I'd say, Podsednik and Iguchi will be an upgrade over Harris and Uribe in that regard. And they'll actually be able to steal some bases too.

 

You can subtract Maggs' OBP since he's moving teams to a pitcher's parks, and upgrade Dye's a little, while Burke didn't hit everyday, and A.J's OBP will definitely increase moving from SBC Park. There was a stat from HardballTimes IIRC, that the Sox had the best % of bringing in a RISP, but they had the worst percentage of getting that runner into scoring position, or something like that (someone may want to clear that up).

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QUOTE(Texsox @ Feb 8, 2005 -> 09:39 AM)
So we are going to have more baserunners?

 

obp last season:

 

Lee .366 vs. Pods .343

Maggs .351 vs. Dye .334

Burke .386 vs. AJ .319

Jose .287 vs. Iguchi?

 

So why will we all of a sudden have more baserunners? I must be missing something.

 

Compare our combined starting RF to Dye, not just Magglio.

Compare our combined starting C to AJ, not just Burke.

 

Then you might have a more accurate snapshot.

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QUOTE(YASNY @ Feb 9, 2005 -> 02:50 AM)
Compare our combined starting RF to Dye, not just Magglio.

Compare our combined starting C  to AJ, not just Burke.

 

Then you might have a more accurate snapshot.

Borchard and Valentin definitely had sub .300 OBP's, and IIRC Crede might of had too. The Sox shouldn't have 1 player in their lineup this season who will have a sub .300 OBP, otherwise he won't be playing.

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QUOTE(Texsox @ Feb 9, 2005 -> 02:53 AM)
Willie .343

Uribe .327

 

One or the other will be playing almost everyday, so that seems a wash.

The difference for Harris is that even if he got on base, he didn't get into scoring position enough because he couldn't steal enough bases, Iguchi and Podsednik should help solve that problem this season. Plus Harris was woefully inconsistent from day to day. Uribe will be interesting to watch, hopefully he doesn't have a second year slump from hitting at the Cell, but I think he's good enough to keep producing if he keeps hitting the ball to all areas of the ballpark.

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QUOTE(YASNY @ Feb 8, 2005 -> 09:50 AM)
Compare our combined starting RF to Dye, not just Magglio.

Compare our combined starting C  to AJ, not just Burke.

 

Then you might have a more accurate snapshot.

 

Good point. Davis was .257 and Borchard was also under .300

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QUOTE(Texsox @ Feb 8, 2005 -> 09:39 AM)
So we are going to have more baserunners?

 

obp last season:

 

Lee .366 vs. Pods .343

Maggs .351 vs. Dye .334

Burke .386 vs. AJ .319

Jose .287 vs. Iguchi?

 

So why will we all of a sudden have more baserunners? I must be missing something.

This analysis on determining the amount of baserunners in 2005 is wrong on several levels.

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QUOTE(Texsox @ Feb 9, 2005 -> 02:57 AM)
Good point. Davis was .257 and Borchard was also under .300

I know Maggs and Lee's production can't be replaced, but like I said in another thread last night, this lineup is now deeper and there shouldn't be any major holes in it. That's how the Twinkies won this division over the past few seasons (besides their great pitching).

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QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Feb 8, 2005 -> 10:59 AM)
I know Maggs and Lee's production can't be replaced, but like I said in another thread last night, this lineup is now deeper and there shouldn't be any major holes in it. That's how the Twinkies won this division over the past few seasons (besides their great pitching).

 

Exactly. I still have trouble seeing how we'll miss Maggs though. The offense never changed with the absence of Maggs last year. We still had our 40 run night, followed by a 2-0 shutout even w/out Maggs. So I'm happy to see the deeper lineup minus Maggs.

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Sox OBP and Runs by position 2004:

 

C - .316 - 74

 

1B - .368 - 89

 

2B - .324 - 102

 

3B - .296 - 77

 

SS - .303 - 98

 

LF - .358 - 104

 

CF - .345 - 111

 

RF - .315 - 84

 

DH - .367 - 93

 

Total runs 832

 

Projected 2005 starters and their 2004 OBP and Runs

 

C- AJ - .319 - 45 / Davis - .256 - 22

 

1B - Konerko - .359 - 84

 

2B - Iguchi - ? - ?

 

3B - Crede - .299 - 67

 

SS - Uribe - .327 - 82

 

LF - SPod - .313 - 85

 

CF - ARow - .361 - 94

 

RF - Dye - .329 - 87

 

DH - Carl - .319 - 29 / Frank - .434 - 53

 

Total runs 648

 

Given 3-5 runs for guys on off days minus C and DH which are already over AB's for a full season that's another 21-35 runs or 669 -683 runs. So for the Sox to equal last yrs runs Iguchi would need to score 149 -163 runs.

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QUOTE(upnorthsox @ Feb 8, 2005 -> 04:54 PM)
Sox OBP and Runs by position 2004:

 

C - .316 - 74

 

1B - .368 - 89

 

2B - .324 - 102

 

3B - .296 - 77

 

SS - .303 - 98

 

LF - .358 - 104

 

CF - .345 - 111

 

RF - .315 - 84

 

DH - .367 - 93

 

Total runs  832

 

Projected 2005 starters and their 2004 OBP and Runs

 

C- AJ  - .319 - 45 / Davis  - .256 - 22

 

1B - Konerko - .359 - 84

 

2B - Iguchi - ? - ?

 

3B - Crede - .299 - 67

 

SS - Uribe - .327 - 82

 

LF - SPod - .313 - 85

 

CF - ARow - .361 - 94

 

RF - Dye - .329 - 87

 

DH - Carl - .319 - 29 / Frank - .434 - 53

 

Total runs 648

 

Given 3-5 runs for guys on off days minus C and DH which are already over AB's for a full season that's another 21-35 runs or 669 -683 runs. So for the Sox to equal last yrs runs Iguchi would need to score 149 -163 runs.

 

 

I will eat my shoe if Pods doesn't score atleast 100 runs this season.

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We got more runs out of 3B last year than we'll get from Crede this year.

We got more runs out of CF last year than we'll get from Rowand this year.

We got more runs out of SS last year than we'll get from Uribe this year.

We got more runs out of C last year than we'll get from AJ/Davis this year.

 

There is something about these projections that just don't add up. Valentin was horrid last year, yet we are going to have drop off at SS? I don't think so. The catcher position is going to be less productive with AJ as our main starter over the Olivo-Alomar-Burke-Davis combo of '04? Not.

 

Lies, Damn lies and statistics.

Edited by YASNY
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QUOTE(The Critic @ Feb 8, 2005 -> 05:50 PM)
We're getting to that punchy, over-analytical point now.

Thank goodness that pitchers & catchers report in 8 days.

I'd much rather have something to discuss that has actually happened, rather than speculation and guesswork.

 

 

Completely agree. This is getting scary :o

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QUOTE(The Critic @ Feb 8, 2005 -> 12:50 PM)
We're getting to that punchy, over-analytical point now.

Thank goodness that pitchers & catchers report in 8 days.

I'd much rather have something to discuss that has actually happened, rather than speculation and guesswork.

 

8 days, 1 hour 6 minutes and counting.... :headbang

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This is so damn typical of the naysayers on this board. Do you bother to look at WHERE they produced those numbers?

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/stats/ml...5392&statType=1

Take a look at his triples, & fly outs near the wall. Those are HR's at the Cell. Using Pods 04 #'s to project his 05 is a complete joke. At least use his career average. Every fantasy site is selling the guy to have a big year.

 

Likewise seasoned Sox fans should know the importance of where a guy hits in the lineup. Balance means more than you care to admit.

 

Pods, Iggy, Dye: All can score from 1st with a long single or short double.

Koney/Thomas, Everett/Koney: You best power in the lineup.

Rowand, Uribe: Both can score from 1st with a long single or short double.

AJ, Crede: Your 2nd best power duo in the lineup.

 

I can't recall any time in the past 4 yrs where the Sox had that kind of balance in their lineup. Likewise I have no idea what in the hell you are doing to come up with a total of 678. That's utterly ridiculous. If you're going to do a R, RBI assessment then have the decency to simply replace 04 numbers for players. I already did that. The Sox will lose 20-25 R, & 20-25 RBI. That's just strictly taking either 04 or career avg of the new players & swapping them for the old. I did that conservatively by taking whichever was lower (career avg, 04).

 

I'm much more interested in the projected 70+ R, RBI will save with the changes in the pitching staff.

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04 SOX: (865r, 823rbi) vs (831r, 782er, 799rbi, 50uer)

 

-Sox deletions: Maggs, Lee, Val, Harris. - Sox additions: Dye, Pods, AJP, Iggy

-Maggs 93R, 108rbi (590 ab proj) + Dye 96r, 88rbi (590 ab proj) : +3r, -20 rbi

-CLee 103R, 99rbi + Pods 85R, 39rbi : -18r, -60rbi

-JVal 73R, 70rbi + AJP 45R, 77rbi : -28r, +7rbi

- Harris (68, 27) + Iguchi : (90, 82) : +22r, +55rbi

05 Total: -21r, -18rbi (844r, 805rbi)

 

-Sox deletions: ELO, Schow, MJ, Cotts - Sox additions: JC, ELD, Vizc, Herm

-ELO 124r, 112rbi + JC 114r. 99rbi : -10r, -13rbi

-Scho 74r, 67rbi + ELD 41r, 36rbi (proj out to 20 st) : -33r, -31rbi

-MJ 43r, 60rbi (out to 72ip) + Vizc 35r, 41rbi : -8r, -19rbi

-Cotts 90r, 80rbi (out to 131ip) + Herm 71r, 62rbi : -19r, -18rbi

05 Total: -43r, -73rbi (822r,750rbi)

 

The season can't get here any faster!

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Then again, we might have higher expectations of Iggy than most.

cbssportsline.com as this lineup in their depth charts.

1. Scott Podsednik LF

2. Aaron Rowand CF

3. Paul Konerko 1B

4. Jermaine Dye RF

5. Carl Everett DH

6. Juan Uribe SS

7. A.J. Pierznynski C

8. Joe Crede 3B

9. Tadahito Iguchi 2B

 

:angry: Prove them ALL wrong Iggy!

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QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Feb 9, 2005 -> 10:51 AM)
Dye: All can score from 1st with a long single or short double.

AJ, Crede: Your 2nd best power duo in the lineup.

 

Is dye suddenly running like he was with the royals? Pierz and crede our best power duo? Wtf.

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QUOTE(YASNY @ Feb 8, 2005 -> 05:10 PM)
We got more runs out of 3B last year than we'll get from Crede this year.

We got more runs out of CF last year than we'll get from Rowand this year.

We got more runs out of SS last year than we'll get from Uribe this year.

We got more runs out of C last year than we'll get from AJ/Davis this year.

 

There is something about these projections that just don't add up.  Valentin was horrid last year, yet we are going to have drop off at SS?  I don't think so.  The catcher position is going to be less productive with AJ as our main starter over the Olivo-Alomar-Burke-Davis combo of '04?  Not.

 

Lies, Damn lies and statistics.

 

Good points, Yas.

 

We're upgrading at C, SS, 3B (Crede should improve upon last years numbers), & RF (Dye >>> Borchard, Perez, Ordonez combo of '04).

 

We only really have a dropoff in LF.

 

2005 definitely will be an interesting year, no doubt...

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You've got to make it purty guys ... :P

 

 

'04

AVG

OBP

SLG

'05

AVG

OBP

SLG
C

.267

.316

.403

Pierzynski

.294

.336

.438
1B

.290

.368

.561

Konkerko

.278

.345

.481
2B

.268

.324

.412

Iggy*

.269

.337

.446
3B

.243

.296

.417

Crede

.256

.304

.434
SS

.241

.303

.482

Uribe

.266

.307

.438
LF

.297

.358

.495

Podsednik

.275

.343

.400
CF

.288

.345

.471

Rowand

.290

.342

.475
RF

.256

.315

.414

Dye

.272

.334

.463
DH

.253

.367

.464

Frank

.308

.429

.567
DH+

.253

.367

.464

Jurassic

.277

.348

.473

 

Our RF was f***ing pituful last year... ..256/.315/.414 isn't even a league averge Catcher(.264/.323/.416 in '04)

Edited by Gene Honda Civic
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