Ordonez signing a colossal mistake

[Scwible]

Ordonez signing a colossal mistake

 

Dayn Perry / Special to FOXSports.com

Posted: 1 day ago 

 

 

 

It's likely that the last major signing of the winter will turn out to be the worst.

 

I'm speaking of the Tigers' decision to sign outfielder Magglio Ordonez to a contract that could be worth $105 million over seven seasons. That's a longer and pricier contract than the one Vladimir Guerrero inked last winter. Which player would you rather have? It's also a pricier deal than the one signed by Adrian Beltre and J.D. Drew this off-season. Again, which player would you rather have?

 

Magglio Ordonez is all smiles now, but will the Tigers be? (Paul Sancya / AP)

 

 

I should point out that I quite like Ordonez as a hitter. He's batted at least .300 in his last five full seasons, he'll take a walk, and his .525 career slugging percentage indicates he's been a remarkably consistent power source over the years. He's a player I'd want on my team, but most assuredly not at these terms. Also consider that over the last few years U.S. Cellular, Ordonez's home ballpark for his entire career, has been the most accommodating park in all of baseball for right-handed power hitters, even better than Coors Field. The upshot is that, in Ordonez's case, there's a substantial amount of statistical inflation going on. In contrast, Comerica, Ordonez's new home park, is one of the tougher parks in the game for right-handed power bats. Accounting for nothing else, his numbers are primed for a nosedive. Of course, we have lots more for which to account.

 

Ordonez is 31 years of age, which means, if the vesting options for the final two years of his contract kick in, he'll be 38 before his final season in Detroit. It's unwise to give a corner outfielder a seven-year contract at age 31 under any circumstances — let alone one that's going to pay him in excess of $100 million — but it's even less prudent in Ordonez's case.

 

We've all heard about Ordonez's knee injury, but this is more than just your garden-variety meniscus tear. He initially injured his left knee in a May 19 collision with Willie Harris, and as a result underwent a pair of surgeries on his bum hinge (one of those surgeries was conducted in Austria and of the experimental variety). Then he was diagnosed with a bone marrow edema, which is something of a rare condition in the sporting world. Ordonez wasn't healthy enough to play winter ball, and he's nothing if not an unknown quantity going forward. After he skipped out on a workout-cum-audition — one that would supposedly prove to suitors that his knee was game ready — there was loose talk that he'd wind up signing a one-year deal. Instead, he's signed the second-biggest contract in baseball since A-Rod's market-shattering pact of 2000.

 

The Tigers may have done their due diligence on the medical end, but the fact remains that Ordonez hasn't played a game since the diagnosis — no one's even seen him run — and, with this particular injury, we're reduced to flying by instruments in terms of how he'll fare in the long-term.

 

So this contract would be a bad idea for a healthy 31-year-old; lavishing this kind of deal upon a player who's 31 and encumbered by a puzzling and serious knee injury is potentially disastrous. It's especially confounding behavior from an organization that not long ago got Dean Palmer and his onerous contract off the books and is still freighted down by the four-year, $35-million contract given to Bobby Higginson a few years prior. And don't forget Juan Gonzalez. This is the club that, by dint of Gonzalez's own stupidity, narrowly missed signing him to a deal that approach $150 million in total worth. Apparently, history isn't taught in the Tiger front office.

 

Also keep in mind that this isn't a franchise awash in revenues. Teams like the Yankees and Red Sox can withstand the occasional bad contract because of their unmatched payroll flexibility. Heck, the Yankees may wind up treating Jason Giambi and his $120-million deal as a sunk cost. The Tigers, however, can't get away with that kind of behavior, at least not with a contract the size of Ordonez's.

 

They do, of course, have a way out. If Ordonez spends more than 25 days on the DL because of his knee injury during the first year of the contract, the Tigers can void the rest of the deal. After that, however, they have no protection. Ordonez knows what's at stake. He'll do whatever it takes to play the requisite number of games to make this contract stick, and, since he'll do it under the guise of being a "gamer," he'll probably get away with it, future be damned.

 

By the time this contract reaches its penultimate year in 2010, Detroit will owe Mags a hefty $18 million for the season (and $15 million for 2011). That's a hefty chunk of the payroll tied up in a player that's almost certain to be an immobile cipher by that point. This contract, besides failing to come remotely close to providing value on the dollar, is going to hinder the organization's ability to add the parts necessary to contend and retain their talented young players once they hit their high-salary years. Jeremy Bonderman, anyone?

 

I'd like to say that, for instance, the contract the Dodgers gave to Darren Dreifort a few years ago was worse, but this one's longer, for almost twice as much money and handed out by an organization that doesn't have the ability to absorb it once the deal sours. The question now isn't whether this is the worst free agent contract of the winter; the question is whether this is the worst free-agent contract of all-time.

 

Dayn Perry is a frequent contributor to FOXSports.com.

[Spod=Ratings]

when it says which player would you rather have JD Drew or Maggs i would take maggs but other then that it seems right to me

[WilliamTell]

It was a mistake, for that price at least.

[aboz56]

when it says which player would you rather have JD Drew or Maggs i would take maggs but other then that it seems right to me

I wouldn't, JD Drew has more talent and looks to have put his injury plagued past behind him. He is also younger.

[santo=dorf]

QUOTE(aboz56 @ Feb 13, 2005 -> 03:30 PM)

I wouldn't, JD Drew has more talent and looks to have put his injury plagued past behind him.  He is also younger.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

and he's left handed and draws a ton of walks.

[soxhawks]

I wouldn't, JD Drew has more talent and looks to have put his injury plagued past behind him.  He is also younger.

 

there is no way drew is better than maggs, even with maggs injury he has been consistent throughout his career where drew decided to show up healthy all year in a contract year

[Guest cws124816]

The question now isn't whether this is the worst free agent contract of the winter; the question is whether this is the worst free-agent contract of all-time.

 

that is the best part of the whole article

[Punch and Judy Garland]

there's no way this is the worst deal of all-time. There are dozens worse. I would start with Hampton, Neagle, Chan Ho Park, Belle with the Orioles just to name a few. Lastly, one minor thing that was incorrect int he article was saying nobody has seen him run. It's been well-documented that Trammell saw him run. I don't think he did jumping or sliding but he ran.

[Chisoxmatt]

Whether its the worst deal of all time or not the Tigers definitely screwed themselves on this deal. Even if maggs is healthy they will be trying to get rid of that huge contract.

[TheBigHurt35]

there is no way drew is better than maggs, even with maggs injury he has been consistent throughout his career where drew decided to show up healthy all year in a contract year

 

Agreed that they overpaid for Maggs but, unless Maggs' bum knee lingers, there's no way that Drew will out-perform him.

[Rowand44]

Agreed that they overpaid for Maggs but, unless Maggs' bum knee lingers, there's no way that Drew will out-perform him.

Not necessarily true. Drew had an ops of over 1 something maggs has never done before.

[Punch and Judy Garland]

JD's only relatively full seasdon was in a walk year. He has very little heart. OPS doesn't mean jack if you are going to sit out with neck injuries incurred by swimming.

[TheBigHurt35]

Not necessarily true.  Drew had an ops of over 1 something maggs has never done before.

 

LOL! Whatever... :rolly

 

Maggs came into the league almost exactly one year before Drew. Career stats...

 

Drew: 127 HR, 373 RBI, .287 BA, .904 OPS

 

Maggs: 187 HR, 703 RBI, .307 BA, .889 OPS

 

Maggs has had 3807 career ABs in just over seven full seasons. In contrast, Drew has only had 2415 ABs in just over six full seasons because he can't stay healthy.

 

Unless Maggs' knee condition is beyond repair, he'll continue out-produce Drew over the course of their careers.

[Rowand44]

LOL!  Whatever... :rolly

 

Maggs came into the league almost exactly one year before Drew.  Career stats...

 

Drew: 127 HR, 373 RBI, .287 BA, .904 OPS

 

Maggs: 187 HR, 703 RBI, .307 BA, .889 OPS

 

Maggs has had 3807 career ABs in just over seven full seasons.  In contrast, Drew has only had 2415 ABs in just over six full seasons because he can't stay healthy.

 

Unless Maggs' knee condition is beyond repair, he'll continue out-produce Drew over the course of their careers.

I'm not saying Drew is automatically going to be better then maggs, however he arguably had a year that maggs has never accomplished, you can't just assume that maggs will for sure have a better season.

[TheBigHurt35]

I'm not saying Drew is automatically going to be better then maggs, however he arguably had a year that maggs has never accomplished, you can't just assume that maggs will for sure have a better season.

 

I don't assume that, but Drew has never had a season with 520 ABs. Maggs had six in a row. So I don't see how you can predict that Drew, who is only one year younger than Maggs, is going to be a more productive player in the future.

 

And I don't agree that Maggs has never had a season to match Drew's '04 numbers. Check out Maggs' '02 numbers, where he destroyed Drew in every major hitting category except for OBP.

Edited February 14, 2005 by TheBigHurt35

[Gene Honda Civic]

And I don't agree that Maggs has never had a season to match Drew's '04 numbers.

 

They're close --

 

their age 28 seasons ar very similar. But since then, drew was signed for 5/$55M and maggs for 7/75

 

I can tell you which one I'd rather have on my team...It's not maggs.

[witesoxfan]

They're close --

 

their age 28 seasons ar very similar.  But since then, drew was signed for 5/$55M and maggs for 7/75

 

I can tell you which one I'd rather have on my team...It's not maggs.

 

Maggs signed for 5/75, or if the options are picked up/vest, it is 7/105

 

And at either price, I'd rather have Drew over Maggs.

[Gene Honda Civic]

Maggs signed for 5/75, or if the options are picked up/vest, it is 7/105

 

And at either price, I'd rather have Drew over Maggs.

yeah that was a typo

[witesoxfan]

yeah that was a typo

 

LOL, kind of figured so