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Bird Flu Pandemic feared


southsider2k5

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QUOTE(kapkomet @ Feb 23, 2005 -> 02:50 PM)
You know really, this is some scary stuff.

 

The science (ahem, Flaxx, edumacate us please) of this is truely a nightmare scenario.

 

Indeed the world is WAY overdue for one of these.

OK, here you go...

 

At the heart of the matter is recombinant genetics -- genetic information from two different organisms or viruses etc., can recombine to form new and genetically unique strains. Via viruses and bacterial plasmids (little circles of DNA), Nature has for billions of years been engaging in these kinds of lateral gene transfers (as opposed to 'typical' vertical transfer from parent to offspring).

 

Importantly, recombinant events are NOT mutations, and can bring about major adaptive changes much faster than single point mutations ever could. It's basically the difference between changing a single letter (point mutation) and potentially paragraphs or pages of information in the genome (recombination).

 

The scenario the linked article presents for recombination of H5N1 and human flu strains is sketchy, but history provides precident and cause for concern. The killer 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic that has been noted here is most likely the result of a chimeric (recombinant) flu strain that had an unusual recombination of pig and human flu genes. A Sept. 2001 paper in Science presented the evidence for this contention. Similarly, the 1957 and 1968 flu epidemics occurred when bird virus hemagglutin (surface protein) genes got into a human viral strain.

 

Even garden variety flu strains mutate quickly, changing their surface proteins ever so slightly so that each year new vaccines must be produced. By definition, the vaccines are of course always one year out of date, because the new formulations are based on the make-up of previous season's flu variants. Still, the changes are usually not so great between consecutive years that the vaccines don't perform fairly well.

 

There was another thread a couple weeks ago where I noted essentially the same thing - as long as the flu has not changed in too many places pandemics don't occur.

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A news story circulated today indicates that flies can contract the bird flu virus.

 

http://www.enn.com/today.html?id=7194

 

While the experts quoted here rightly note that thius information doesn't necessarily mean there is a likely transmission vector to humans through the flies, they fail to note what I thiunk is more important. The H5N1 strain is a capable species jumper -- not just across closely related species (e.g., chimps and humans), but across vast phylogenic expanses. This is counter to the dogmatic view of viruses being very species specific, as a result of the "lock and key" issues with surface protein binding sites, etc. But the dogmatic view doesn't take recombinant factors into account. It will be interesting if a follow up study reveals that there are acquired (laterally transmitted) genetic differences between H5N1 in birds, flies, and humans.

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