ESPN Fantasy Whitesox report

[kwill]

This is kind of a report on how they think the sox will play too.

 

Go Go Sox Start with Scotty

 

Yesterday we discussed the Cubs, one very interesting team from a fantasy angle. You've got arguably the most interesting closer battle (Joe Borowski is the leader now), a dominating rotation with the potential for the best starter in the game (Mark Prior) and another who has won 15 games every year since Reagan's presidency (Greg Maddux). The leadoff batter could go 30-30 (Corey Patterson), and I'd bet at least two of the current bench players (Jerry Hairston, Jr. and Jason Dubois) finish the season with better stats than the current left fielder (Todd Hollandsworth).

Of course, things are only a little less interesting on the south side of the Windy City. The majors' top home run team is now playing small ball? Ozzie, say it ain't so. But will it work, and more importantly for our purposes, what is the fantasy impact?

 

I'd argue any potential lineup success lies in the leadoff hitter, in this case one Scott Podsednik. Fantasy owners don't know what to do with this guy. He led the majors in steals last year -- even more than Carl Crawford -- but was an otherwise ordinary player. Ah, but 70 steals! Two seasons ago as he was breaking out, Podsednik was a smarter player. He hit for average, took walks at a better rate and ultimately scored more runs. In 2004, it appears all he cared about was swiping bags, which as we all know is no guarantee to turn into a run. (Or a win.) Podsednik's on-base percentage dropped from .379 to .314. Think that doesn't matter?

 

Among the 20 players who stole 22 or more bases, nobody had a lower OBP. Among 20 others who stole between 17 and 21 bases, Reggie Sanders, Jose Reyes and Tike Redman were the ones with lower OBPs. What's the significance? Get on base more, you can run more and score more. Dave Roberts, who essentially stopped playing at the trade deadline when the Dodgers dumped him on Boston, had 321 fewer at-bats than Podsednik, and 32 fewer steals. His OBP was 24 points higher. This year, I'm not so sure Roberts isn't the better value for where these guys are getting drafted, unless Scotty plays a different kind of baseball.

 

Check out ESPN's Average Live Draft Results (you've all been asking me for it, here it is). So far, Podsednik is being drafted on average 63rd, making him an early sixth round pick. Too early? Unless you think he's going to steal that many bases again, it is. With ChiSox manager Guillen stressing the run and bunt game, I think Podsednik, despite a sketchy minor league track record, will actually be more like the 2003 version. That means he'll bunt more, hit more balls on the ground and try to beat them out. He'll swing less for the fences. And he'll probably run a little less, steal more like 50 bags. Overall, a .280 average, 50 steals and 100 runs (a far more normal rate of steals to runs is 1-to-2, not the 70-to-85 rate of last year) is more valuable than last year, trust me. And well worth the sixth round pick. Why draft Juan Pierre in round three if Podsednik's available an hour later? For that matter, unless you think Crawford's triples turn into homers fast, how can Crawford be a first-rounder? I love steals, and love Crawford, but there's no way I take him in round one. You get your power early. Teams only win with Crawford if they steal all the power late.

 

After Podsednik on the White Sox, you'll want Juan Uribe, the No. 2 hitter. Expect less power, but double digit steals. And of course you know he's eligible at second, short and third. The White Sox could bat Aaron Rowand second, but I think he's really more of a three hitter. Paul Konerko ended up with 41 homers and 117 RBI, but Rowand had a higher slugging percentage, a lot more doubles and he has speed. Despite Rowand's better fit, I think the middle of the lineup will go Konerko, Jermaine Dye and then Rowand, but all could be 30-100 players. Don't forget about Dye; he always manages to knock in runs. With Frank Thomas still hurt, Carl Everett plays DH and should knock in runs. What happens to Japanese import Tadahito Iguchi? I think the team is putting him in the nine hole just so he can avoid pressure. He's got good speed, and will probably play a better small ball than Uribe or Rowand, making him a good No. 2 hitter. But not in April, I'd guess.

 

Will the White Sox hit fewer home runs? They should. But they should also win more with a better focus.

 

But it all starts at the top.

posted: March 4, 2005 11:19:43 AM PST | Feedback

[Gene Honda Civic]

damn, I got Uribe and Rowand in like the 10th and 11th rounds of my last draft. Dye was a 21st rounder.

[Chisoxfn]

damn, I got Uribe and Rowand in like the 10th and 11th rounds of my last draft.  Dye was a 21st rounder.

My guess is that won't be the case in the keeper league draft tomorrow. I remember last year a lot of Sox jumped off the board early. I guess thats what happens when 99% of the players are Sox fans, lol.

[southsider2k5]

I got Uribe around round 10, and got Pyrz, Dye, and and El Duque in rounds 20-26.

[SoxFan1]

We had an auto-pick draft (a league I created w/ some friends) and the only Sox player I came up with was Podsednik. I'm in a debacle over where to place him. I can put him in the midst of my starting OF but I already have Bonds, Ichiro, and Miguel Cabrera. I don't want to bench him because his steals and extra-base hits are valuable. Sooooo...I have decided to trade him. The trade would be Scotty/Figgins/Foulke for Crawford/Franky Cordero. What do you guys think???

 

EDIT: BTW, I'd have to pick up an IF and it would probably be Guillen, Vidro, Castilla, or Konerko....

Edited March 6, 2005 by SoxFan1