Another White Sox Preview...

[CWSGuy406]

I tend to think of this one as more objective than the other ones that I've read (you can make the call on that), so I figured I'd post it. It seems this guy took some time to think about it rather than throw some s*** down on paper about us...

 

Battersbox.com (Blue Jay's Fan Blog/Discussion Site)

 

Even though he gives our pitching staff some credit, I don't feel that he credits it enough. I think that Contreras will make our rotation, at worst, average (if he sucks), or one of the better ones in the AL (and Addison's been saying that we'll live and die by Jose -- I won't go that far, but he's a huge key, for sure). He acknowledges that 'when El Duque actualyl pitches', he's dynomite -- just gotta keep him healthy (105 pitches and under, Ozzie!).

 

I don't think he gives Pierzynski (specifically) enough credit, but with the rest of the offense, I tend to agree with him. What happens with our MIF's will be a great factor in how our offense do (as far as Iguchi adjusting, and Uribe repeating last year). And, looks like Rowand is starting to get a lot of love -- glad to have him on the Southside, that's for sure.

 

Overall, I agree with what he said -- a few quirps here and there, but overall, I agreed with it. I'd say we're right around a mid-eighties-win team, with a midseason aquisition, I can see us in the mid-to-low 90's.

[SoxFan1]

Kinda confusing. Talks highly of everyone excpets Pods, gives the Pen props, gives the starters kind words, then predicts an 80-82, third place finish????

[jackie hayes]

And something always goes wrong with pitching, somewhere, somehow.

My big worry. So far in ST Felix Diaz hasn't reassured me, in case we have to dip into the 6th starter pool. Hopefully Hermanson will be able to patch up the rotation when it's needed.

[southsider2k5]

My big worry.  So far in ST Felix Diaz hasn't reassured me, in case we have to dip into the 6th starter pool.  Hopefully Hermanson will be able to patch up the rotation when it's needed.

 

Barring injuries, Adkins will be the #6 starter. Guillen really likes the guy.

[CWSGuy406]

Kinda confusing. Talks highly of everyone excpets Pods, gives the Pen props, gives the starters kind words, then predicts an 80-82, third place finish????

 

He doesn't really talk highly of anyone in our lineup except for Konerko and Rowand. He like Dye a bit, and he feels that Uribe and Iguchi are both capable of putting up solid numbers, but other than that, he doesn't really like our lineup at all...

[AnthraxFan93]

I like this report.. Hits the nail on the head with KW.. Though most here don't see it

 

 

And also is being a realist.. Everything has to work in order to win this year, if one part fails it all Fails .. IMO

[AddisonStSox]

I tend to agree with most everything he said regarding the White Sox offense. If he were to watch Podsednik these first few ST games, he may have had some better things to say for him as well. Also, I love his comparison between El Duque and Saberhagen...it's right on.

 

However, I disagree with his assessment of AJ Pierzynski and his third place projection.

 

If our pitching can establish itself as one of the better rotations in the AL, and who knows, maybe we catch a bit of luck and everyone stays healthy, our offense will score enough runs to generate offense and keep us in ball games.

 

Contreras will dictate the success of the White Sox rotation; book it.

[Kalapse]

BMac maybe #7 starter?

[JUGGERNAUT]

It's an odd report that exargerates some players weaknesses & some players strengths. He is a fan of Contreras so hope springs eternal when he mentions him. He is not a fan of Garland & so the sky's will darken is his forecast there. Neither case is likely. Both Contreras & Garland should improve simply because they will be pitching for the most part against less capable starters.

 

In the same context he mentions little on the fact that the Cell became the #1 HR hitting park in 04 after the roof change. Instead he chooses to to believe that Uribe's year was a fluke & that Pods year in 03 was likely a fluke. So he's looking at the glass 1/2 empty wrt to those two. I think that's somewhat ignorant. The physics of the park have clearly changed

to where not as much force is needed to lift the ball near the wall or out of the park.

 

Every hit is a trajectory problem http://physics.about.com/cs/forstudents/a/170603_2.htm.

Essentially the distance the ball will travel is a function of it's speed, angle, & counteracting forces (friction, gravity). The park plays a role in the frictional forces. If the air pressure along the flight of the ball changes from one of high pressure to low pressure the park will produce greater lift for the ball. This is likely what is happening more often at the Cell since the roof change. There are usually swirling winds at the park & the shape of the roof may be conducive to producing two waves of pressure. A high pressure wave near the ground & a low pressure wave in the stands.

 

What all that means is that balls naturally travel further at the Cell.

The same hit at the Comerica will not travel as far as it will at the Cell.

When seeking new talent the Sox should be targeting higher average hitters over power or OBP ones. Sabremetrics is no substitute for BA at the Cell.

 

In that respect the addition of AJP is a much greater gain than the author

suggests. BA: 98-300, 99-273, 00-307, 01-289, 02-300, 03-312, 04-272

02-04 US Cellular 328. 02-04 Away 294

 

To suggest this is not a major upgrade is ridiculous. AJP's hits are more often than not going to carry much further at the Cell than they did in SF.

The 2 wave pressure theory aids not just in HR's but likewise in DB's & duck snorts. A duck snort hit at the Cell likely is caught by an IF at Comerica. Make no mistake about it. AJP is a major upgrade.

 

Uribe is a perfect example of the Cell effect: Home 315, Away 248

In Jun & Jul he slumped big time with 28 Away games. The other months all feature better than 300 average. His Away #'s were very close to his 250 career avg at Col. He finished the season strong at home so the odds are he's more likely to improve the home #'s in 05 as an everyday player.

His road #'s will likely resemble his 250 average. I would definitely play the matchup game with him on the road & hope to have a backup ready.

 

Comparing him to Valentin (217H, 214A) it's again ridiculous to view him as anything less than a major upgrade. Batting average matters the most at the Cell.

 

Koney is another example of the Cell effect (317H, 239A)

Crede the same thing (261H, 219A) - lot more duck snorts at home.

Dye is too small a sample but we do have 417 at Wrigley & a 285 at Oak.

I would be surpised if Dye does not hit better than 300 at the Cell.

 

Summing it all up is that the talent on this team is there to where the Sox

have a good chance at exceeding the 04 team in R at the Cell. It's on the road to where the Sox don't look very good & to where the new additions might help more than they hurt.

 

Pods (255H, 295A) over his time in Mil. 04 (213H, 274A)

Just about every player improves on his #'s at the Cell so I don't see Pods

being any different. His road #'s are encouraging because that is where his speed will be most important. This team is going to struggle to score on the road.

 

What is most impressive about Igs is that he put those numbers up at a place that is definitely a pitcher's park in a dome nonetheless. The pressur e is constant in a dome so there is no park effect. It's just the dimensions that matter. Igs is definitely going to benefit from the Cell & his dome numbers tell me he is going to help much more than hurt on the road.

 

The combination of Pods+Igs+AJP represents an upgrade over Lee+Uribe+Davis. That means more to consistent scoring than individual play. Lee got it done both at home & on the road & will be sorely missed.

That's why I wanted to keep him over Koney. But the net impact is that

the Sox have upgraded the combined production.

 

Likewise Uribe+Dye is an upgrade over Maggs+Val.

 

I think everyone on the planet agrees the Sox have improved their pitching so it's just a question of the offense. Better balance is reflected by combined production. In that respect the Sox have upgraded. Not just the home production but also the road production which is probably the most important factor for the Sox in 05.

 

I remain optimistic with the expectation of a division win in 05 until the team proves otherwise. The only thing I can see keeping the Sox from winning the division is the injury bug. If the talent is on the field this team will win.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Hey Juggy HOLY CRAP man that's in depth. But they main thing is it's optimistic, which I like. Are you a meterologist, a physicist, and a stats geek ? All sounds good to me. Hope does spring eternal.

[CWSGuy406]

It's an odd report that exargerates some players weaknesses & some players strengths. He is a fan of Contreras so hope springs eternal when he mentions him. He is not a fan of Garland & so the sky's will darken is his forecast there. Neither case is likely. Both Contreras & Garland should improve simply because they will be pitching for the most part against less capable starters.

 

So what if they're facing ''lesser'' opposing pitchers?

 

While that might increase the W/L total by one or two, it certainly won't improve their ERA or WHIP -- they're still facing the same hitters that Garcia/Hernandez will be facing...

[YASNY]

Hey Juggy HOLY CRAP man that's in depth. But they main thing is it's optimistic, which I like. Are you a meterologist, a physicist, and a stats geek ? All sounds good to me. Hope does spring eternal.

 

 

I'd guess he was a politician. :rolly

[SoxFanForever]

Great analysis as always Juggy.