Mid-Season 05: Sox #1?

JUGGERNAUT · March 11, 2005

I thought about this in the Crede threads. With KW as our GM it's a given that we will ake changes near the break. None of the analysts factored this into their assessments.

Last year the Sox were hard pressed to deal any slugger because Maggs & Thomas went down. This year is different with more experienced promising talent in the ml's & a glut of OFers in the system. With greater depth than most ALC teams I think this puts the Sox in the lead as far as being able to swing the mid-season trades.

I'm just mentioning the ML's in these trades. It's assumed that prospects are included if that's what it takes to get it done.

At the top of the list you have to put the #1 rumor in the off-season:

1) Koney + Garland/Contreras to AZ for Vazquez. The Sox are hoping that either Garland/Contreras can manager fewer than 5 bad outings in the 1st half. That should produce an era < 5.00. The Sox covet Vazquez & if we can convince him we have a legitimate shot at a WS with his help he's sure to endorse the trade.

A rotation of Buehrle, Garcia, Vazquez, & Hernandez, Garland/Contreras give the Sox a greater edge in the 2nd 1/2 over all ALC teams.

2) Contreras/Garland + Crede + prospects to FLA for AJ Burnett + Lowell.

It's possible the Sox would have to include a RP as well. But this makes sense if FLA is out of it because it's a salary purge for them saving them a few million.

Adding Burnett to the rotation gives the Sox the best 1-5 in MLB.

Adding Lowell gives the Sox a real 3B to battle w in the 2nd half.

Yes the Sox are taking on more salary in these trades but it's short term debt.

Vazquez is off the books at the same time as Garcia. That's how mid revenue teams

are suppose to spend their $ to take a shot. Take on short term debt.

This is again why I am optimistic with the 05 Sox. If they can stay healthy in the 1st half then there is great potential for KW to upgrade this team for the most compettive part of the season. The money they take on in these salaries will more than be paid for with a first round divisional win. That should be the goal. Build a team near the finish not just capable of making the playoffs but also getting to the ALCS.

I'm going to say this now because I believe it's true. The Sox are not choke artists like the Cub. If they can get past the first round then I believe they will have a team capable of winning the World Series. We have not won a Series since 1917 but we have a lot better history of fielding contending teams with winning records year after year than the Cub. With such a prominent history of always finishing 2nd this organization would find that some extra (ala the BoSox) to win a WS if it can get past the 1st round.

It's most likely 1st round opponent would be the NYY.

Edited March 11, 2005 by JUGGERNAUT

SoxFan1 · March 11, 2005

The missing link are the Sox prospects.

WilliamTell · March 11, 2005

For the MLB roster I think the Sox have the most to offer, but I don't know about other teams minor leagues. So I'd still have to go with the Sox.

JUGGERNAUT · March 14, 2005

Another reason why I rank the Sox #1 is needs:

Losses by year:

04 H 35L, R 44L

03 H 30L, R 46L

02 H 34L, R 47L

01 H 35L, R 44L

00 H 35L, R 32L

The Sox are good for an avg of 33L or 48W at home no matter what. To win the division the Sox must be road warriors (no more than 36L & no less than 45W).

Road Warriors(bats): Pods 04 R 274A/741OPS, 3 yr avg: R 295A/783OPS. Igs has the best R #'s on the team (JPL). AJP 04 R 261/720, 3yr R 294/787. ARow 04 R 317/907, 3yr R 296/811. Everett 04 R 296/828, 3yr R 276/792. Thomas 04 R 274/892, 3yr R 250/793. Gload 04 R 311/839, 3yr R 318/848.

Road Warriors(arms): Marky B 04 R (229/630), 3yr R (260/710). Garcia 04 R (237/679), 3yr R (254/725). El Duque 04 R (237/724), 3yr R (251/700). Garland 04 R (255/762), 3yr R (272/790). Shingo 04 R (180/561). Marte 04 R (182/570), 3yr R (191/590). Vizcaino 04 R (235/724), 3yr R (238/720). Herm 04 R (254/769), 3yr R (272/766).

Road Bums: Crede, Koney, Dye, Uribe, Perez, Contreras, Politte, Adkins, Cotts

Koney + Contreras + Cotts to AZ for Javier Vazquez 04 R (286/831), 3yr R (261/730).

Either Contreras will develop into a road warrior (fat chance) or he will be used as bait to get one. In either case the Sox will have an upgrade here to battle in the 2nd half. If Koney isn't signed he's gawn.

05 PreAS: Apr (10H, 14R), May (13H, 16R), Jun (16H, 9R), JulA (6H, 3R) = (45H, 42R)

05 PosAS: JulB (7H, 10R), Aug (13H, 15R), Sep (17H, 13R) = (37H, 38R)

The schedule favors us slightly.

Edited March 14, 2005 by JUGGERNAUT

retro1983hat · March 14, 2005

QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Mar 14, 2005 -> 10:50 AM)