THT: Sox Season Preview

[southsider2k5]

In left field there is abouta 5 ft. gap between the seats and the wall. They could move it a little.

 

They won't do that, because they want the moat between the fans and the playing field. When they had closed and padded it before, that was where all of the idiot Cub fans in the bleachers used to jump out on the field.

[JUGGERNAUT]

Uribe's hit chart: http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb...6874&statType=1

Moving the fences back will help a little but not a lot. Certainly not enough to justify the cost. They would have to bite into the concourse to add new seats to make up for the ones they'd lose in the front. That's at least a few million right there.

 

But look at the bulk of Uribe's HR's. They are LC, C, & RC. Moving the fences won't change that. The orientation of the park & the proximity to the lake are much bigger factors. Naturally cool air blows from the east off the Lake towards the park. This is almost always heavier air than the winds that usually travel S->N. This almost always creates swirling winds

at the Cell. When the roof was open that wind would fan out more in all directions but with the roof closed that's not the case. The air gets trapped long enough to where the lake effect air can reverse the flow a little. That creates more lift on the ball. The lake effect air naturally sinks lower than the S->N air.

 

Overall I think the article was very fair, highly detailed, & solid in it's commentary but I think it was weak in building a case for the Lee trade.

The biggest weakness being that it didn't consider how often Lee himself was a RISP vs Pods in 04. Instead it looked at the team in general & concluded getting RISP was more important than guys that could hit w RISP.

 

C Lee 04 Bases Empty: vs LH 368A, 439O, 632S; v RH 303A, 354O, 502S: 108H, 25D, 16HR, 6 SB, CS 3

S Pods 04 Bases Empty: vs LH 186A, 248O, 258S; vs RH 273A, 341O, 399S : 113H, 20D, 5T, 7HR, 56 SB, CS 10

 

Next consider how many Bases Empty AB's led to the player advancing past 1B as a result of his own hit or a steal: C Lee 47/591 (8%), S Pods 88/640 (14%). Is that 80% improvement in one position in this one category worth the obvious loss in OBP, & SLG overall? I don't think so. Lee may have only gotten past 1B on his own talent 8% of the time but he scored 103R. Pods on the other hand only scored 85R. That's a function of how often you get on vs how often someone moves you over. Lee proved mighty productive in that capacity overall.

 

Top 2 R producers on ChiSox:

2004: 103 (Lee) vs 96 (Rowand)

2003: 100 (Lee) vs 95 (Maggs)

2002: 82 (Lee) vs 116 (Maggs)

 

Unless Pods plays somewhere near his 2003 #'s this trade could cost KW his job.

Pods 03 Non: 377AB 305A, 361O, 432S, 115H, 22D, 4T, 6HR, 36 SB, 9 CS

78/377 (21%). If he can manage 17%, he is twice as more likely to be an RISP than Lee would have. That's probably worth the loss in power.

Edited March 28, 2005 by JUGGERNAUT

[ptatc]

Uribe's hit chart: http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb...6874&statType=1

 

Overall I think the article was very fair, highly detailed, & solid in it's commentary but I think it was weak in building a case for the Lee trade.

The biggest weakness being that it didn't consider how often Lee himself was a RISP vs Pods in 04. Instead it looked at the team in general & concluded getting RISP was more important than guys that could hit w RISP.

 

C Lee 04 Bases Empty: vs LH 368A, 439O, 632S; v RH 303A, 354O, 502S: 108H, 25D, 16HR, 6 SB, CS 3

S Pods 04 Bases Empty: vs LH 186A, 248O, 258S; vs RH 273A, 341O, 399S : 113H, 20D, 5T, 7HR, 56 SB, CS 10

 

The SB is a measure of how many times they reached base on a bases empty AB & then stole a base.  C Lee 47, S Pods 88.

 

Keep in mind Pods had about 100+ AB more than Lee last year, but when you take into consider OBP+SB, he's still more likely to be a RISP than Lee.

 

However; he has the potential of getting shutdown vs LH.  An area where Lee thrived the best. That can really hurt in the ALC which features some of the prominent LHers in MLB. 

 

Kenny's going to live or die on this trade for sure.

 

 

Don't forget to factor in what Vizcaino and Hernandez do. The trade included the reliever and the money saved allowed us to get another starter. Don't judge this trade on offensivee stats alone(it's obvious that CLee is a better hitter), factor in the upgrade in LF defense and the two pitcher's stats.

Edited March 28, 2005 by ptatc

[RockRaines]

I think the players that we had have a large part in our HR numbers, not just the park. We have had a tremendous amount of right handed power hitters in our lineup during this homerun binge. It could be a skewed number

[JUGGERNAUT]

Don't forget to factor in what Vizcaino and Hernandez do. The trade included the reliever and the money saved allowed us to get another starter. Don't judge this trade on offensivee stats alone(it's obvious that CLee is a better hitter), factor in the upgrade in LF defense and the two pitcher's stats.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

For sure you have to consider Vizcaino & we really won't know until we've seen him pitch. At the least we can probably say he'll be no worse than Politte. But I don't buy the Hernandez argument because it's not major $. If you're telling me that we traded a great bat vs RH, & LH (some of the very best I might add) who was the team's top scorer 2 yrs in a row to save 7.5M that doesn't speak well of the organization. I think whether this team trades Lee or not it almost had to sign another starter.

[studes]

Thanks a lot for all the great comments about my article. I appreciate it, and wanted to respond to a couple of them:

 

- I totally missed that Uribe batted well in September. I should have researched that more thoroughly!

 

- Regarding this comment:

 

"I think the players that we had have a large part in our HR numbers, not just the park. We have had a tremendous amount of right handed power hitters in our lineup during this homerun binge. It could be a skewed number."

 

It's true that the Sox have had a lot of righthanded power hitters, but that doesn't impact the RHB park factor. Park factors are calculated independently of who is on the team.

 

- And regarding this comment:

 

"I think it was weak in building a case for the Lee trade."

 

I didn't try to build a case for the Lee trade. I tried to explain the possible thinking behind it. There's a difference. I also didn't say that getting guys in RISP was more important than getting guys who hit well in RISP. I did say that the former was a clear weakness of the Sox.

 

I wouldn't have made the trade myself, though I don't have to worry about the team's budget.

[greasywheels121]

Wow; that's awesome that you've logged on to Sox Talk! Welcome!

 

Like everyone else has said, it was a solid article, and it's hard to get mad with your assessment. You did your research, and it doesn't seem like many people do anymore, especially when it comes to the Sox.

[southsider2k5]

Thanks a lot for all the great comments about my article.  I appreciate it, and wanted to respond to a couple of them:

 

- I totally missed that Uribe batted well in September.  I should have researched that more thoroughly!

 

- Regarding this comment:

 

"I think the players that we had have a large part in our HR numbers, not just the park. We have had a tremendous amount of right handed power hitters in our lineup during this homerun binge. It could be a skewed number."

 

It's true that the Sox have had a lot of righthanded power hitters, but that doesn't impact the RHB park factor.  Park factors are calculated independently of who is on the team.

 

- And regarding this comment:

 

"I think it was weak in building a case for the Lee trade."

 

I didn't try to build a case for the Lee trade.  I tried to explain the possible thinking behind it.  There's a difference.  I also didn't say that getting guys in RISP was more important than getting guys who hit well in RISP.  I did say that the former was a clear weakness of the Sox.

 

I wouldn't have made the trade myself, though I don't have to worry about the team's budget.

 

Welcome to Soxtalk, and once again, great article. Good job researching it. If you do write ups on other teams, I would be curious to see them. Feel free to post them.

[jackie hayes]

It's great to get feedback on discussions like this. Welcome to the site, hopefully this won't be your last appearance!

[CWSGuy406]

Thanks a lot for all the great comments about my article.  I appreciate it, and wanted to respond to a couple of them:

 

- I totally missed that Uribe batted well in September.  I should have researched that more thoroughly!

 

- Regarding this comment:

 

"I think the players that we had have a large part in our HR numbers, not just the park. We have had a tremendous amount of right handed power hitters in our lineup during this homerun binge. It could be a skewed number."

 

It's true that the Sox have had a lot of righthanded power hitters, but that doesn't impact the RHB park factor.  Park factors are calculated independently of who is on the team.

 

- And regarding this comment:

 

"I think it was weak in building a case for the Lee trade."

 

I didn't try to build a case for the Lee trade.  I tried to explain the possible thinking behind it.  There's a difference.  I also didn't say that getting guys in RISP was more important than getting guys who hit well in RISP.  I did say that the former was a clear weakness of the Sox.

 

I wouldn't have made the trade myself, though I don't have to worry about the team's budget.

 

That was definitely one of the best team previews I've read, great job on that -- and awesome to see you check in.

 

A quick question, if you have a moment and see this -- I know you went off of Gleeman's prediction of production (bleh) of Iguchi, but do you really think that he can hit .300/.345? Or, is it just too hard to tell with Japanese players (as far as not a good enough sample size to judge Japanese players and how they adjust)?

[YASNY]

I concur with the consensus. That was the best preseason write up on the Sox that I have seen. You did something that no one else bothered to do, and that is you looked at the overall picture and not just the fact we lost Lee and Ordonez.

[studes]

That was definitely one of the best team previews I've read, great job on that -- and awesome to see you check in.   

 

A quick question, if you have a moment and see this -- I know you went off of Gleeman's prediction of production (bleh) of Iguchi, but do you really think that he can hit .300/.345?  Or, is it just too hard to tell with Japanese players (as far as not a good enough sample size to judge Japanese players and how they adjust)?

 

I'm really not an expert on Japanese baseball. But I thought that Aaron's analysis seemed fair and, from what I've seen in spring training, Iguchi looks like a hitter. I'm not too sure what to think of him in the field, though. What do you guys think?

[southsider2k5]

I'm really not an expert on Japanese baseball.  But I thought that Aaron's analysis seemed fair and, from what I've seen in spring training, Iguchi looks like a hitter.  I'm not too sure what to think of him in the field, though.  What do you guys think?

 

On defense so far Harris>>>Iguchi. Tad's range seems limited, his arm is decent, and he seems scared or inbetween on bounding balls. Maybe it is coming off of playing on turf all of the time, but so far I have not been impressed at all.

[JUGGERNAUT]

I'm really not an expert on Japanese baseball.  But I thought that Aaron's analysis seemed fair and, from what I've seen in spring training, Iguchi looks like a hitter.  I'm not too sure what to think of him in the field, though.  What do you guys think?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

I'm not sold yet on Iggy being a high 200-near 300 hitter. Mainly because I don't know how many hits he had in Japan based on beating out a throw on the turf. I do see a guy with enough speed & enough power though to hit a lot of doubles. I'd be surprised if he doesn't lead the team in that category with Frank being out a month.

 

I've seen enough patience by him at the plate & in light of his numbers in Japan to think he can both bunt & walk to get on. So I think he'll have a solid OBP. But I'm looking at mid 200 average for Iggy. He should rank in top 5 in R scoring on the team.

 

As for his D I don't want to over-judge him just yet. He's coming to grips with the fact that he can't rely on his turf speed to get to balls. He'll have to get better jumps on balls. That could come with experience. Turf or not it's hard to win a GG in any league & he did in Japan. I think we owe him a few months before we making any judgment of him.

[Yossarian]

Don't forget to factor in what Vizcaino and Hernandez do. The trade included the reliever and the money saved allowed us to get another starter. Don't judge this trade on offensivee stats alone(it's obvious that CLee is a better hitter), factor in the upgrade in LF defense and the two pitcher's stats.

I was livid when Lee was traded and I'm not high on Posednik, but I took the attitude you have, and to me that is the fairest most objective way to look at this move.

[Yossarian]

Thanks a lot for all the great comments about my article.  I appreciate it, and wanted to respond to a couple of them:

 

- I totally missed that Uribe batted well in September.  I should have researched that more thoroughly!

 

- Regarding this comment:

 

"I think the players that we had have a large part in our HR numbers, not just the park. We have had a tremendous amount of right handed power hitters in our lineup during this homerun binge. It could be a skewed number."

 

It's true that the Sox have had a lot of righthanded power hitters, but that doesn't impact the RHB park factor.  Park factors are calculated independently of who is on the team.

 

- And regarding this comment:

 

"I think it was weak in building a case for the Lee trade."

 

I didn't try to build a case for the Lee trade.  I tried to explain the possible thinking behind it.  There's a difference.  I also didn't say that getting guys in RISP was more important than getting guys who hit well in RISP.  I did say that the former was a clear weakness of the Sox.

 

I wouldn't have made the trade myself, though I don't have to worry about the team's budget.

Wow, I didn't realize you had logged on here. I'd be interested in reading more of your work. It was a pleasure to read something of this caliber. Of course many of your individual points are open to debate, but you really did your homework, unlike so many in the field today. I salute you!

[southsider17]

Wow, I didn't realize you had logged on here. I'd be interested in reading more of your work. It was a pleasure to read something of this caliber. Of course many of your individual points are open to debate, but you really did your homework, unlike so many in the field today. I salute you! 

 

 

Read away!

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/authors/studes/

[CWSGuy406]

I'm really not an expert on Japanese baseball.  But I thought that Aaron's analysis seemed fair and, from what I've seen in spring training, Iguchi looks like a hitter.  I'm not too sure what to think of him in the field, though.  What do you guys think?

 

I'm with southsider2k on this one.

 

I think he can hit well -- I dunno about .300 well, but I can see him hitting .290 with a .340-.350 OBP. He likes to use every part of the field, which so far in Spring Training (not a lot of AB's, small sample size, but whatever) has meant good things for him.

 

Defensively, meh -- I think he'll make the plays that come to him, but he doesn't have anywhere near the range that Harris does (as SS2k5 aluded to). I'm interested to see if he actually backhands a ball. Isn't it "wrong" to backhand a ball in Japan?

[JUGGERNAUT]

In defense of the Lee trade/$ dump, it was $16M well spent: $5M Herm, $5M Iggy, $6M (AJP, Vizc, & Pods) + ml. If you accept the ChiSox are tapped out $ wise, then a 5 for 1 move doesn't look all that bad.

 

A lot of analysts have used El Duque for the $ swap comparison & that's a mistake. That looks much worse because he's not expected to pitch more than 100IN. When you take him out of the $ swap for Lee it looks much better.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...cago-white-sox/

Solid F'n preview....

 

That's the first truly intelligent preview of the Sox I've heard. Most of the boneheaded "pundits" say "they lost Lee/Ordonez they are gonna suck". This one actually looks at what they gained for a change and did a good job of it.

[YASNY]

In defense of the Lee trade/$ dump, it was $16M well spent: $5M Herm, $5M Iggy, $6M (AJP, Vizc, & Pods) + ml. If you accept the ChiSox are tapped out $ wise, then a 5 for 1 move doesn't look all that bad.

 

A lot of analysts have used El Duque for the $ swap comparison & that's a mistake.  That looks much worse because he's not expected to pitch more than 100IN.  When you take him out of the $ swap for Lee it looks much better.

 

 

Actually, not only is it not a mistake, but it's more accurate. Hermanson was signed prior to the Lee trade and Hernandez was signed afterward.

[JUGGERNAUT]

Actually, not only is it not a mistake, but it's more accurate.  Hermanson was signed prior to the Lee trade and Hernandez was signed afterward.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

One had nothing to do with the other. They were planning to trade Lee the whole time. That was blatantly obvious. Lee's $ was used to secure players you must have to compete. Hernandez' $ was used to upgrade the rotation. It wasn't a must. It was more of it's feasible do it otherwise go with what we have.

Edited March 31, 2005 by JUGGERNAUT

[YASNY]

One had nothing to do with the other.  They were planning to trade Lee the whole time.

That was blatantly obvious.

 

Was it? I'm seem to recall and board-wide element of shock after the Lee deal. Facts are facts. They acquired Hermanson while Lee's salary was still on the books. There was no guarantee that they would find a deal for Lee that they would accept. After the Lee deal, then they sign El Duque. Those are the facts ... and that is "blatantly obvious".

[JUGGERNAUT]

There was no guarantee that they would find a deal for Lee that they would accept. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

You can stop there. Too funny!

[YASNY]

You can stop there.   Too funny! 

 

Ok. I'm done talking with someone that responds to facts with garbage. Good day, Jugger.