Hatchetman Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 I saw something that had us at 82.5. the bookmakers are usually pretty accurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjm676 Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 QUOTE(poorme @ Mar 31, 2005 -> 11:45 AM) I saw something that had us at 82.5. the bookmakers are usually pretty accurate. I was there a few weeks ago and Caesar's had us at 83 wins. Imperial Palace had us at 84 wins, and Bellagio had us at 83 wins. Overall, we were picked to end up third. Behind Cleveland and Minnesota. It's easy money. They should win 83 games. If not, something is very wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 82.5 looks about right judging by what I am finding on line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatchetman Posted March 31, 2005 Author Share Posted March 31, 2005 Thanks. 83 wins would seem to be "easy" money. maybe they know something we don't? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KipWellsFan Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 QUOTE(poorme @ Mar 31, 2005 -> 12:00 PM) Thanks. 83 wins would seem to be "easy" money. maybe they know something we don't? That the Sox underachieve every year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 QUOTE(poorme @ Mar 31, 2005 -> 12:00 PM) Thanks. 83 wins would seem to be "easy" money. maybe they know something we don't? Its all supply and demand. If the general public were buying up the Sox at 83 wins, it wouldn't stay there, it would go up. If no one were buying the Sox at 83, they would fall. Outside of setting the initial lines, the casinos are only responding to buying pressure when they move their lines around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Mar 31, 2005 -> 12:05 PM) Its all supply and demand. If the general public were buying up the Sox at 83 wins, it wouldn't stay there, it would go up. If no one were buying the Sox at 83, they would fall. Outside of setting the initial lines, the casinos are only responding to buying pressure when they move their lines around. This is correct. Remeber all betting lines are where they feel they can get the most action, not where they think the team will actually finish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EvilJester99 Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 Calling my bookie now..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi8is Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 QUOTE(ptatc @ Mar 31, 2005 -> 06:08 PM) This is correct. Remeber all betting lines are where they feel they can get the most action, not where they think the team will actually finish. say on these over and under wins how much would u win on say: 100 bucks? they pay 1.5? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 QUOTE(hi8is @ Mar 31, 2005 -> 12:17 PM) say on these over and under wins how much would u win on say: 100 bucks? they pay 1.5? They probably all pay -110. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatchetman Posted March 31, 2005 Author Share Posted March 31, 2005 QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Mar 31, 2005 -> 12:05 PM) Its all supply and demand. If the general public were buying up the Sox at 83 wins, it wouldn't stay there, it would go up. If no one were buying the Sox at 83, they would fall. Outside of setting the initial lines, the casinos are only responding to buying pressure when they move their lines around. yeah, by "they" i meant the betting community. seems like "we" are generally more optimistic. on paper i don't see how we could be worse than last year. essentially trading lee for about 8 other acquisitions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sec159row2 Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 QUOTE(ptatc @ Mar 31, 2005 -> 12:08 PM) This is correct. Remeber all betting lines are where they feel they can get the most action, not where they think the team will actually finish. not necessarily... lines are often set to get the public to bet a certain team... for example... duke minus 4 over mich state... duke only minus four points??? when just about everyone has them in the final four... the public got smoked cause they fell into vegas' trap... chris berman said it best " when vegas is begging you to take a certain team, you're usually the one who ends up begging" vegas KNOWS EVERYTHING WE DON"T... espn tells you what they want you to know.. not what you need to know... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 QUOTE(sec159row2 @ Mar 31, 2005 -> 03:01 PM) not necessarily... lines are often set to get the public to bet a certain team... for example... duke minus 4 over mich state... duke only minus four points??? when just about everyone has them in the final four... the public got smoked cause they fell into vegas' trap... chris berman said it best " when vegas is begging you to take a certain team, you're usually the one who ends up begging" vegas KNOWS EVERYTHING WE DON"T... espn tells you what they want you to know.. not what you need to know... I don't buy that at all. It is well known that Vegas makes money on the spread. That 10% that the house gets from you is where they make their money, as long as the bets are balanced against each other. If they lost that game, they would have had huge losses in your scenario. In reality they probably had 100,000 bets for Duke, 100,000 bets for MSU, and kept the 10% as a pure guarenteed profit, instead of hoping it fell their way. Betting operates as a commodity and is priced as such. Stocks are always trading where there are equal numbers of buyers and sellers. If there are more buyers, the price goes up until they balance out sellers and buyers, and vice versa. Spreads operate the exact same way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sec159row2 Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 (edited) QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Mar 31, 2005 -> 03:09 PM) I don't buy that at all. It is well known that Vegas makes money on the spread. That 10% that the house gets from you is where they make their money, as long as the bets are balanced against each other. If they lost that game, they would have had huge losses in your scenario. In reality they probably had 100,000 bets for Duke, 100,000 bets for MSU, and kept the 10% as a pure guarenteed profit, instead of hoping it fell their way. Betting operates as a commodity and is priced as such. Stocks are always trading where there are equal numbers of buyers and sellers. If there are more buyers, the price goes up until they balance out sellers and buyers, and vice versa. Spreads operate the exact same way. whatever.... I ran a book for 8 years(for amusement only ) and this is what I was taught... vegas could care less about 10%... they want the home runs... it doesn't happen every game, but it happens... Edited April 1, 2005 by sec159row2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxFan562004 Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 I was at Caesar's last week and I think the Sox opened at something like 30-1 to win the AL, now they were down to roughly 15-1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 thank you sportsinteraction.com for helping me place my bet after I read this thread earlier Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leonard Zelig Posted April 1, 2005 Share Posted April 1, 2005 QUOTE(sec159row2 @ Mar 31, 2005 -> 03:21 PM) whatever.... I ran a book for 8 years(for amusement only ) and this is what I was taught... vegas could care less about 10%... they want the home runs... it doesn't happen every game, but it happens... I always thought that a bookmakers best scenario was to have equal $$$ on either side of the bet, that way they are guaranteed to make money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sec159row2 Posted April 1, 2005 Share Posted April 1, 2005 QUOTE(Leonard Zelig @ Apr 1, 2005 -> 01:00 AM) I always thought that a bookmakers best scenario was to have equal $$$ on either side of the bet, that way they are guaranteed to make money. in theory, yes you want equal action on both sides, but juice won't carry you thru to thanksgiving ( the "magic" date in football wagering) a bunch of years back, right when I was getting started, the bears opened up the season on labor day monday against dallas. Dallas was just coming off a super bowl win, and favored by 7. The bears at the time (not much different from now) were not good and especially horrendous on monday nights. Dallas lost no players from the super bowl champ team. I didn't write down a single Bears play, everybody was jumping on dallas like it was free $$$$. I started to poop, and called my "mentor". I was told not to adjust my line( I wanted to get bears action) I was told to continue taking all the dallas action I could, and sit back and enjoy. Seriously, I was told to sit back and enjoy. to make a long story longer, five minutes into the game emmit smith goes down. Bears win outright..????? I cleaned up ( which usually doesn't happen the first week) I asked my mentor what he knew... his only response was to chuckle... ??? I don't know if he knew emmit was injured prior to the game or what, he just told me to stick to the lines and never adjust them. if the public is jumping on one side "leave the number alone"... moving the number could cause you to get caught in the "middle" ironically this is what eventually got me out of the "business" (for amusement only of course.) years later I thought I knew more than the system and began adjusting spreads. this created "middles" that got some of my associates angry, and I liked my legs so I settled into retirement from the book ( for amusement only) like I said it doesn't happen all the time, but a couple times a month, was all it took to cash in... when spreads do move... ALWAYS take the side that is getting less attractive.. for example if a team started at 3 and moves to 6 you are safe to give as many as 10... if vegas is making it harder to bet your team don't back off.. bet more!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southside hitmen Posted June 24, 2005 Share Posted June 24, 2005 Im glad I put a thousand on the Sox at 40-1 odds at the beginning of the season to win the world series. Did anyone else put money down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fotop Posted June 24, 2005 Share Posted June 24, 2005 (edited) QUOTE(Southside hitmen @ Jun 23, 2005 -> 07:27 PM) Im glad I put a thousand on the Sox at 40-1 odds at the beginning of the season to win the world series. Did anyone else put money down I don't care how good we are, that's an awful bet. Mainly because you wouldn't be able to gain money on it like a stock if you were able to get out of your committment right now. Predicting any team to win the world series at the beginning of the year is a downright crapshoot. Those types of bets, along with parlays and teasers are the reason there's shiny new casinos popping up everywhere. EDIT: Btw, if you were are something like tradesports then you would be able to get out of your position at anytime. That's why I've got some money in 10cent contracts for ND to win the BCS...if we reel off wins in our first 3-4 games, I can make some scratch. Edited June 24, 2005 by Fotop Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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