neyer

[santo=dorf]

QUOTE(jackie hayes @ Mar 31, 2005 -> 06:55 PM)

This logic -- that making one dumb mistake makes your analysis automatic garbage forever more -- I don't agree with that at all.  How many posters here would have any credibility left if that rule were applied?  This is just a way of trying to attack someone's arguments without looking at the arguments, which I'll never accept.

 

I know that many people here hate sabermetrics.  Fine, don't listen to Neyer.  I think sabermetrics has a good deal of value, yet I'm often sceptical of his opinions.  But judging from what I've read, he knows a LOT of baseball history, loves the game, and is anything but a 'hack'.  Trying to throw out everything he's written on forgetting where the great Jermaine Dye signed (c'mon, "bargain" does not mean "cornerstone") is weak.

 

Btw, I believe he did put the A's on the 10 worst offseason list -- no?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm not discounting his opinion, I just don't think he is that well-informed about the AL Central. These sabermatricians can keep calling the 2003 Marlins or the previous 3 Twins teams flukes because of their run differentials, but the fact is the Twins have a very good chance of winning the AL Central even if they "only" win their games by 1 run.

Edited April 1, 2005 by santo=dorf

[jackie hayes]

I'm not discounting his opinion, I just don't think he is that well-informed about the AL Central.  These sabermatricians can keep calling the 2003 Marlins or the previous 3 Twins teams flukes because of their run differentials, but the fact is the Twins have a very good chance of winning the AL Central even if they "only" win their games by 1 run.

That may well be (he may not pay much attention to the ALC), I'm just arguing that he's not a "hack".

 

I'm not at all sure of this, but didn't he pick the Twins last year? I think his reasoning was basically that they'd proven him wrong so many times before.

[Jabroni]

This logic -- that making one dumb mistake makes your analysis automatic garbage forever more -- I don't agree with that at all.  How many posters here would have any credibility left if that rule were applied?  This is just a way of trying to attack someone's arguments without looking at the arguments, which I'll never accept.

 

I know that many people here hate sabermetrics.  Fine, don't listen to Neyer.  I think sabermetrics has a good deal of value, yet I'm often sceptical of his opinions.  But judging from what I've read, he knows a LOT of baseball history, loves the game, and is anything but a 'hack'.  Trying to throw out everything he's written on forgetting where the great Jermaine Dye signed (c'mon, "bargain" does not mean "cornerstone") is weak.

 

Btw, I believe he did put the A's on the 10 worst offseason list -- no?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The funny thing is that no one ever even brought up the word "sabermetrics" in this thread. Could it be that because you are a believer in sabermetrics or a "stat-head" that you are defending Neyer at all costs?

[CWSGuy406]

The funny thing is that no one ever even brought up the word "sabermetrics" in this thread.  Could it be that because you are a believer in sabermetrics or a "stat-head" that you are defending Neyer at all costs?

 

:headshake Or, is it because you're anti-sabermetric that you call him a hack?

 

He made a mistake, and he apologized for it. Jackie is just arguing that because a guy makes a mistake, doesn't make him a hack...

[jackie hayes]

The funny thing is that no one ever even brought up the word "sabermetrics" in this thread.  Could it be that because you are a believer in sabermetrics or a "stat-head" that you are defending Neyer at all costs?

Uh, no. I think it has value, that's all. I don't know enough about it to be a "'stat-head'". As for it never coming up -- Neyer is the public face of sabermetrics. When people start trying to dismiss his arguments wholesale without addressing a single one of them, I think it's a fair guess what the motive is.

 

"At all costs"? Are you nuts? I said I often disagree with him. For example, he wrote something a while back disparaging Buehrle, and I thought he'd drastically underrated Buehrle (overstressing the peripherals, understressing his apparent consistency). That said, he presented an argument -- it seemed fair to address the argument on its face, not by finding some technicality in an unrelated piece which was quickly corrected.

[witesoxfan]

The funny thing is that no one ever even brought up the word "sabermetrics" in this thread.  Could it be that because you are a believer in sabermetrics or a "stat-head" that you are defending Neyer at all costs?

 

Why are you attacking Neyer at all costs? He f***ed up...he admitted it. He deserves criticism for f***ing up, which is being given. But now you are attacking him because he picked the White Sox to win the Central?

 

The Twins had one of the worst offseasons in the league - hell, there could be an argument made that they DID have the worst offseason in the majors, with their most expensive signing being Juan Castro - yet people are still picking them to win the division.

The Angels also had a very poor offseason too. Their biggest move was bringing in an aged veteran in Steve Finley to play CF after coming off the best year of his career. They signed quite possibly the most overrated player in the majors in Orlando Cabrera to a 4-year, $26 mill deal. They added one starter - slightly above mediocre inning eater Paul Byrd - to a rotation that was filled with mediocrity last year when there was all kinds of SP available in the offseason. They also got rid of a .280 30 100 .850 bargain of a player in Jose Guillen for a 4th OFer and a SS they will never use. Yet they are one of the favorites to win the division.

 

I have given you 3 examples total of how Neyer could very easily be right...teams can have relatively bad offseasons, even while staying quite active in the market, and still be predicted or even favored to win their division. We lost our starting corner OFers, which were a large part of our power supply of the past few years, along with our starting SS. We now have Uribe coming off his first full good season, Iguchi who has never played in the majors, Podsednik who could be a huge fluke...I'm not gonna do this again...but there are arguments as to why the Sox could win, even while having a bad offseason.

 

All I'm gonna say is to lay off Neyer...atleast he predicted the Sox to win the division. Who cares that he f***ed up? He is one of the few to see the truth!

[CWSGuy406]

Why are you attacking Neyer at all costs?  He f***ed up...he admitted it.  He deserves criticism for f***ing up, which is being given.  But now you are attacking him because he picked the White Sox to win the Central?

 

The Twins had one of the worst offseasons in the league - hell, there could be an argument made that they DID have the worst offseason in the majors, with their most expensive signing being Juan Castro - yet people are still picking them to win the division. 

The Angels also had a very poor offseason too.  Their biggest move was bringing in an aged veteran in Steve Finley to play CF after coming off the best year of his career.  They signed quite possibly the most overrated player in the majors in Orlando Cabrera to a 4-year, $26 mill deal.  They added one starter - slightly above mediocre inning eater Paul Byrd - to a rotation that was filled with mediocrity last year when there was all kinds of SP available in the offseason.  They also got rid of a .280 30 100 .850 bargain of a player in Jose Guillen for a 4th OFer and a SS they will never use.  Yet they are one of the favorites to win the division.

 

I have given you 3 examples total of how Neyer could very easily be right...teams can have relatively bad offseasons, even while staying quite active in the market, and still be predicted or even favored to win their division.  We lost our starting corner OFers, which were a large part of our power supply of the past few years, along with our starting SS.  We now have Uribe coming off his first full good season, Iguchi who has never played in the majors, Podsednik who could be a huge fluke...I'm not gonna do this again...but there are arguments as to why the Sox could win, even while having a bad offseason.

 

All I'm gonna say is to lay off Neyer...atleast he predicted the Sox to win the division.  Who cares that he f***ed up?  He is one of the few to see the truth! 

 

 

I luuuuuuuv witesoxfan.

[maggliopipe]

That may well be (he may not pay much attention to the ALC), I'm just arguing that he's not a "hack".

 

 

Neyer is a KC Royals' fan, so I assume he follows the AL Central closely. He was my favorite baseball writer until one needed ESPN insider to read his articles.

[DBAHO]

Too bad Rob Neyer doesn't write for Rotoworld hey? (sorry couldn't resist).

[Jabroni]

Too bad Rob Neyer doesn't write for Rotoworld hey? (sorry couldn't resist). 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

RotoWorld is great because you can find all the latest moves all in one place but the comments are pretty lame. They seem to think that any young prospect with good minor league stats can be great in the MLB and better than proven veterans.

[ptatc]

The problem I have with it is that he went from the Sox being one of the 10 worst to the ALC title because of Dye????

 

If the Twins went down enough that Dye made the big difference then why weren't the Twins on his list of the 10 worst off seasons. He may have just changed his mind but that is an awful lot of "windsocking."

[qwerty]

RotoWorld is great because you can find all the latest moves all in one place but the comments are pretty lame.  They seem to think that any young prospect with good minor league stats can be great in the MLB and better than proven veterans.

 

I love their comments personally. They will rip on everyone and anyone.

[Jabroni]

The problem I have with it is that he went from the Sox being one of the 10 worst to the ALC title because of Dye????

 

If the Twins went down enough that Dye made the big difference then why weren't the Twins on his list of the 10 worst off seasons. He may have just changed his mind but that is an awful lot of "windsocking."

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Exactly my point.

 

I love their comments personally. They will rip on everyone and anyone.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That is true. They are sometimes pretty funny when they bash scrubs.

Edited April 1, 2005 by Jabroni

[AirScott]

if not for injuries and the pitching going to s***, the Sox would have won the division last year. Neyer didn't know about Dye, and Dye is less of a question mark than Everett, who would be starting if not for Dye. this team has a lot of question marks (did we get the Podsednik of 03 or 04, will AJ turn it around, will the shaky starters hold form?), that having Everett start in the outfield and somebody else at DH until Frank Thomas returns would just be too many question marks.

[YASNY]

He made a mistake and admitted it.  That's why all newspapers have the little oops square -- this happens every day.

 

If you want to argue with his analysis, go ahead.  But the NYT makes dumb mistakes, that doesn't mean it's a "hack" paper.  Deadlines mean errors, deal with it.

 

 

The NYT is a mistake.

[YASNY]

The problem I have with it is that he went from the Sox being one of the 10 worst to the ALC title because of Dye????

 

If the Twins went down enough that Dye made the big difference then why weren't the Twins on his list of the 10 worst off seasons. He may have just changed his mind but that is an awful lot of "windsocking."

 

The Sox, according to Neyer, were one of the 10 worst to improve themselves in the offseason. Someone mentioned the Angels offseason as being lame, but they still have Vlad. It is not an illogical conclusion to assume that while not impressed with the offseason moves, he feels the Sox are strong enough to win the central based on what was already here and the fact the Twins lost the left side of the infield.

[CWSGuy406]

if not for injuries and the pitching going to s***, the Sox would have won the division last year.  Neyer didn't know about Dye, and Dye is less of a question mark than Everett, who would be starting if not for Dye.  this team has a lot of question marks (did we get the Podsednik of 03 or 04, will AJ turn it around, will the shaky starters hold form?), that having Everett start in the outfield and somebody else at DH until Frank Thomas returns would just be too many question marks.

 

I know GH-Civ has mentioned it, but if Everett produces against righties like he can (and has done thusfar in Arizona), Dye/Everett would make a great platoon -- unless, of course, Podsednik produces like his 2004 season, which I hope won't happen...